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Mortgage and Housing News Weekend Editon: December 16-21st 2024
Mortgage and Real Estate News Weekend Edition: Market Wrap-Up Update (December 16 – December 21, 2024):
Mortgage Rates
Current Rates:
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is steady at 6.4% as of December 21, with the average fifteen-year fixed in the 5.8% region.
- The ongoing stability during a slow period provides some relief to home buyers.
Market Influences:
- Inflation figures and the Federal Reserve’s message on the likely direction of interest rates have contributed to fluctuations in existing economic indicators, keeping mortgage rates slightly further tempered.
Home Sales Activity
Existing Home Sales:
- In November, the National Association of Realtors registered a surge of 1.5% in existing home sales.
- This increase signals a boost in buyer activity for that month, caused primarily by seasonal changes and a subsequent boost in buyer activity.
Pending Home Sales:
- The market shows signs of strength going into the new year, as pending home sales also bumped by 2.3% during November.
Housing Inventory
Inventory Levels:
- Despite the increase in sales, housing inventory remains tight.
- The current supply of homes is around 2.7.
- This number is fairly low compared to the historical average of six over the months.
New Listings:
- In December, new listings noted an increase of 4%, which is commendable.
- This further shows that despite sellers’ affordability challenges.
- There is still a willingness to join the real estate bandwagon.
Home Prices
Price Trends:
- The median existing home price has served as a foremost determinant in history.
- The average selling price at the national level was $370,000, down almost two percent compared to the past year.
Regional Variations:
- Particular regions within the Southern and Midwestern parts of America are either showing slight rises in value or stabilization of values, in contrast to the major restructuring occurring within the Californian and New York markets.
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This discussion was modified 18 hours, 42 minutes ago by
Gustan Cho.
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14 Replies
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What are the predictions for interest rate changes in the first quarter of 2025?
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Predictions for the Changes in the Interest Rates for the First Quarter of 2025
The Federal Reserve Take
Analysts forecast that the Federal Reserve will make no considerable changes to the federal funds rate in early 2025, further seeking to maintain a 5.25%—5.50% rate. Such decisions have been made after carefully considering the fear of inflation and the appetite for the economy’s growth without exceeding reasonable limits.
Inflation Watching
The Fed anticipates inflation data at approximately 3.5%—4.0% and monitors the data accordingly. Predictions imply that if the inflation rate decreases, the rate hangs will be minimal.
Growth Rate of the Economy
Gross domestic product growth is expected to remain at around 2%, which indicates moderate economic growth. However, should the economy grow significantly, the Fed may consider changing its target interest rates to lower levels to support it.
Market Predictions
Considering global inflation changes and the general humanitarian crisis, investors remain hopeful that rate cuts could be possible by 2025.
Global Incorporated and Economic Indicators
International trade relations stresses and global militarization can also impact the Fed’s actions risk-averse.
Employment Report
Job creation will likely continue, though it will slow down, affecting the Federal Reserve’s view on the labor market. If people keep their jobs and their pay increases, the Federal Reserve would not feel the urgency to change its monetary policies.
In summary, the majority of people anticipate that interest rates will not change for the first quarter of 2025, as it appears that the Fed is now driven solely by data. Inflation, growth, employment, or other economic pulse indicators will all be crucial in determining interest rates later in the year.
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This reply was modified 18 hours, 26 minutes ago by Gustan Cho.
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This reply was modified 18 hours, 26 minutes ago by
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What are the potential consequences of a rate cut later in 2025?
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Impacts to Expect with a Potential Rate Cut in 2025, If It Happens:Borrowing Costs
Mortgage and Loan Rates:
- A decrease in interest rates considerably lowers the burden of mortgage and loan obligations, leading to economic stimulation by both consumers and businesses.
- This is attributed to an increased rate of spending and investment.
Bolster the Housing Market
- The real estate market may react positively.
- With a decrease in mortgage rates, an increase in home buyers and home refinancing orders will be witnessed.
Consumer Spending
Increase in Purchase Orders:
- Low Mortgage rates can increase consumer borrowing and boost Morgan and other enterprises’ sales by increasing consumer confidence, which can grow the economy as evidenced by investment.
Reduced Credit Card Debts:
- Individuals with debt paying variable rates may favor this trend, as interest rates will decrease, increasing disposable income.
Effects On Deliverance
Interest Rate Impact:
- With an expectation of high returns, investors are bound to become more aggressive as savings accounts look to decrease interest rates on fixed-income investments.
- Therefore, lower interest rates on loan amounts are retained.
Reactions in the Stock Market
- A rate cut usually has a huge positive impact on the stock market as it leads to lower internal costs for a company and improved spending rates by consumers expecting an increase in firm profit.
Sector Performance
- Lowering interest rates can shift investment tactics by directing funds into specific sectors, such as real estate and consumer discretionary.
Inflationary Pressures
Risk of Higher Inflation:
If people start excessive borrowing and spending after the cut-offs, then prices can increase, removing the balance from the Fed’s goal of smooth inflation.
Balancing Act:
- The Fed must monitor inflation closely to prevent the economy’s inflation from bursting.
Currency Value
Weaker Dollar:
- Reducing rates can weaken the dollar as investors look for other markets for greater returns.
- This will hurt international trading by making imports expensive.
Long-term Economic Stability
Potential for Overheating:
- Suppose the economy expands rapidly because of the cut-offs.
- In that case, there are high chances of greatly imbalanced and more volatile economics in the future, forcing the Fed to increase rates drastically.
Debt Levels:
- Further, increasing debt levels may lead to financial instability in the future.
- This makes it hard for businesses and other borrowers to pay rent in the long run.
Political and Public Reaction
Reactions to Inequality:
- There is a concern that the rich will gain more from cut-offs as they have more access to credit, increasing the economic divide.
- Addressing the predominating inequality is necessary.
Policy Scrutiny:
- Legislators and economists will question the resolution.
- It will greatly affect the public’s confidence in the Fed’s economic control.
If the cut is applied in late 2025 as proposed, it will deeply affect the United States economy, and lending, spending, inflation, and growth taxes may be affected. While it would be nice to overheat the economy, such short-term gains would not benefit the Federal Reserve. As a result, economic indicators will have to be closely followed to manage those effects effectively.
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How likely is a rate cut in late 2025, given current economic indicators?
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Likelihood of a Rate Cut in Late 2025Current Economic Indicators
Inflation Trends:
- Currently, inflation is expected to be between 3.5% and 4.0%.
- A steady decline toward the Federal Reserve mark of 2% would create a greater opportunity for decreased rates.
Economic Growth
- With GDP growth rates hovering around 2.0%, economic growth will likely slow further.
- If that happens, the Fed may intervene with rate cuts to encourage growth.
Federal Reserve’s Stance
Data Dependency:
- Regarding a unified approach towards rate changes, the Fed has stated that the shift would be towards a data-driven approach.
- The rate can be lowered if adequate data shows reasonable achievement in inflation control combined with growth.
Market Expectations:
- Current investor sentiments and future market movements indicate the possibility of rate cuts in late 2025, further validating the easing notion.
Employment Conditions
Labor Market Strength:
- The Fed may be discouraged from cutting rates if the employment rate remains high and job availability remains robust.
- However, a stark slowdown in job growth can positively enhance the probability of a rate cut.
Global Economic Factors
International Influences:
- International conditions, such as foreign trade activities or political disruptions, can aid or hinder the US economy’s performance.
- This can affect the Fed’s decision-making regarding cuts.
Possible Danger
Economic Heat:
- If the economy overheats due to previous stimulative policies, the Fed may avoid cutting rates to avoid increasing inflationary pressures.
Financial Swings:
- High financial swings or economic instability may lead to rate cuts in advance to stabilize the economy.
- While current indicators signal a possible rate cut in late 2025.
- Most suggest that they base this decision on inflation, growth, and employment.
We should expect a cut if inflation nears the target Fed range and growth slows. However, the global and, more importantly, domestic economies remain uncertain about many outcomes.
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How might a recession impact the likelihood of a rate cut?
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How a Recession Affects the Likelihood of Cut Rates
An Increase in Economic Stress
Diminishing Growth:
- A recession usually means a drop in economic activity.
- This might encourage the Fed to reduce rates, allowing for growth in spending and investment.
Surging Unemployment:
- It is quite common for businesses to lay off layoff more employees as they suffer from declining revenues.
- The Fed often bets on the unemployment rate due to higher layoffs and cuts the rates to support employment creation.
Effect on Inflation
Reduced Inflation:
- A recession causes a reduction in demand for various products and offerings.
- This dropoff can lead to a reduction in the overall inflation rate.
- If inflation levels decline, the Federal Reserve may lower rates as a stimulus and encouragement.
Encouragement as Central Focus:
- The Fed might shift its focus from inflation control to stimulation.
- This makes Rate reduction possible since inflation isn’t a primary concern.
The Sentiment of the Market
Trust of the Investors:
- Depreciation in consumer and Chief Executive confidence is a drastic effect of a recession.
- This depreciation can be offset by cutting borrowing rates, which makes goods cheaper and increases spending.
Market Distrust:
- Recessions usually unjustly affect the stock market, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut rates to stabilize the market.
Analyzing Economic Activity
**Access to Finance**
- Banks close the tap on credit during recessions, making it difficult for consumers and businesses to borrow.
- Cutting such rates helps ease such conditions.
**Lend More**
- Rates can occasionally be reduced to encourage banks to open a world of credit.
- Doing so can help the economy strengthen when it is struggling.
Policy Changes
**Forward Defence**
- The Fed can successfully implement rate cuts to ease the blow of a recession even before it happens.
- Mitigating the effect of the recession can even out its intensity.
**Culmination with Fiscal Policy Adjustments**
- Cutting rates is not the only solution.
- The situation can be alleviated by spending more or cutting taxes.
A recession is more likely to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates as the economy needs to be revitalized to create more jobs and encourage spending. The worsening of the economy and lowered inflation call for lower rates to strengthen the economy again. It will always remain a question of what economic indicators, market conditions, and the Fed’s response will happen during a recession to alter the time of the rate cut.
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What are some historical examples of rate cuts during recessions?
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Historical Examples of Rate Cuts During Recessions
Impact of the Great Recession (2007-2009)
Impact:
- If the US Treasury Bond Yield curve shifted downward, US economic growth would have also been restricted to a low percentage for a prolonged timeframe.
- The Federal Reserve embarked on a mission to intercept the decline in growth by lowering rates on Federal Funds.
Impact:
- In retrospect, rate decreases were included in the large monetary policy package, which also included easing restrictions on engaging in quantitative facilities.
- This relief to the economy pushed it out of the low growth period.
Measuring Impact on the Economy
Economists realized a slow economic recovery, so they joined with the treasury efforts to bring reforms into their economy after factoring in US Growth rates.
Impact of the Early 2000s Recession
Impact:
- Tendering this amount would be a disaster for money lenders.
To Strengthen The Economy
FOMC’s Chairman Alan Greenspan recognized the failure of the bug trend since July 2001 in slashing down rates by up to a quarter of a percent.
Impact:
- Time lag preceded drastic measures such as these sought to aid economic stability after the widespread.
- The impact of September 11 economic reforms and policies.
Measuring Impact on the Economy:
- Building confidence among stakeholders is needed to encourage them to take American Credit from the economy.
Impact of the 1990-1991 Recession:
- In July 1990, the unemployment rate inflated, and the economy grew weakly.
- The Federal Reserve attempted to counteract this by cutting its interest rate from 8.25 to 3 % until September 1992.
- Although the economy entered a growth period, the cut led to a slow recovery, increasing unemployment to a high peak.
1980s Recessions
Federal Reserve Actions:
- Chairman Paul Volcker leads the Federal Reserve and sees an increase in inflation.
- He raised the interest rate, which averaged around 20%, to combat this.
- By the time inflation yearns for relief, the rate fell to 8% by 1982.
Impact:
- The high interest and inflation rates and the market crash caused the US recession.
- Many policies were introduced to counter the aftermath, which helped lead to an extensive growth period after the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions.
COVID-19 Recession (2020)
Federal Reserve Actions:
- The pandemic resulted in an economic shock, and the Federal government managed the economy by implementing rate cuts, lowering it to 0%- 0.25% in March 2020.
Impact:
- The federal government implemented fiscal stimuli to counteract the state of the economy, speeding up liquidity alongside the cuts.
- As a result, the marketplace stabilized, uncovering the path for quick recovery.
Looking back, rate cuts during recessions have proven effective in reviving economic growth and employment and stabilizing the financial market. Moreover, every rate cut served as an indicator of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to regain control over the economy by being versatile in its approach toward monetary policies and aiding recovery.
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Were there any unintended consequences of these rate cuts?
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Unintended Consequences of Rate Cuts During RecessionsAsset Bubbles
Unintended Consequences:
- The core economic markets, including real estate and equities, suffered from the expansion of the asset bubble.
- This was pushed into orbit by investors spinning to higher returns around 2008, while interest rates consistently decreased for an unprecedented amount of time.
Impact:
- As in other instances, the insolvencies of these asset bubbles made losses and crises in the real economy more severe.
Increased Debt Levels
Consumer and Corporate Debt:
- The favorable borrowing climate due to the rate cut allowed consumers and businesses to borrow more.
- While this boosted consumption and investment in the immediate term, it compromised the long-term viability of the financial systems.
Impact:
- Extreme debt tends to give rise to economic sensitivities, implying that repayment obstacles lead to defaults.
Inequality
Wealth Disparities:
- Rate cuts benefit the wealthier, who can borrow and use the money for investment, more than the poor.
- If used by the poor, they tend to compound inequality, as wealthier households used to have.
- They will still have access to lending opportunities that the lower-income households never had access to.
Impact:
- Wealth disparity can foster economic instability by creating an environment that supports social and political conflict.
Hosting a Low-Rate Party: A Boozy Affair
Market Behaviour:
- Anything’s a party in the world of borrowing.
- However, prolonged low interest rates only build black dependencies on cheap borrowing, which may create further problems when rates climb.
- Productive and long-term growth strategies may face resistance.
Impact:
- The post-party period can be tricky to navigate as firms and consumers readjust to the new higher rates.
- Businesses and the economy at large may experience some disruption.
The Inflation Venturing Dragons
Post-Recession Inflation:
- In some scenarios, economic recovery following a recession can result in supernormal inflationary pressures, where aggressive rate cuts are practiced.
- A prime example is the recovery during the post-pandemic when inflation surged and forced the Fed to change its stance.
Impact:
- Hyperinflation is a good way to decrease the purchasing power of the masses.
- It creates a headache for the economy, forcing it into a raise rate cycle.
Volatility during Crisis
Market Reactions:
- The markets always overreact to rate cuts, and that volatility is no surprise.
- Major economic shifts due to aggressive monetary policies can lead to economic instability.
Impact:
- The above factors can reduce confidence in the people or the economy at large, disrupting investment strategies.
Curb Your Spending
Impact on Savers:
- A rate cut will likely negatively affect savers, especially for the older generation, which relies on interest income, as fixed-income securities or savings accounts are expected to have reduced interest rates.
Effect:
- This will reduce consumer expenditures since people have less income to use, delaying economic recovery.
- Rate cuts cause unintended consequences, and most of these effects result from recessions, lowering economic activity and hindering recovery.
- These effects highlight the intricacies of such policy decisions and the apprehension that must be considered when such decisions are made.
- The biggest challenge for decision-makers will be ensuring that immediate economic assistance is given to the economy without the possibility of future instabilities.
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What are alternative strategies to stimulate the economy during recessions?
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Retooling Strategies to Cure An Economy During Its Meltdown In:Fiscal Policy Measures
Government Spending:
- When government spending is increased on infrastructure, education, and healthcare projects, jobs are created, boosting the amount of money in circulation.
- Direct payments alone get the economy up and moving.
Tax Cuts and Refunds:
- In times of recession, they are known to provide relief to individuals and businesses, lowering their taxes.
- As a consequence, their disposable income rises, permitting higher spending and investment levels.
Targeted Fiscal Stimulus
Direct Payments:
- Payments have been made to provide people with a single amount of relief during the recession and assist those in need of support by increasing consumer economic spending.
Unemployment Benefits:
- As the name indicates, these benefits are available to unemployed people.
- The idea behind expanding unemployment benefits is to help those out of jobs retain the stabilizing factors unattended.
Monetary Policy Alternatives
Quantitative Easing (QE):
- By buying financial securities, policymakers aim to lower interest rates on loans, which fuels investment spending and makes more money available to the economy.
Forward Guidance:
- Communication of future policy action is necessary for achieving high visibility goals.
- This action will affect consumer expectations and decisions due to future rate cuts.
Investment in Human Capital
Job Training Programs:
- By continuing to fund labor markets and providing skill training, people will become more employable due to the additional skill sets that they will possess.
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Education Funding:
- Better funding can strengthen education, which will pay off in terms of improved productivity, economic development, and a better workforce.
Support for Small Businesses
Grants and Low-Interest Loans:
- Giving out these small business loans helps small businesses weather recessions, maintain employees, and contribute to economic growth.
Tax Incentives:
- A tax break during difficult economic periods is encouraged for small businesses seeking reinvestment and expansion.
Regulatory Reforms
Reducing Red Tape:
- A lack of regulations provides a business-friendly environment and fosters innovation.
- It also encourages business investments and facilitates hiring and business expansions during the recession.
Encouraging Competition:
- Competition positively impacts economic activity by decreasing prices and improving services.
Consumer Confidence Initiatives
Public Awareness Campaigns:
- Anyone trying to increase domestic consumers’ confidence and spending power in the economy should tell people about support programs and resources available.
Community Support Programs:
- The worsening of a locality’s economy can be stabilized and potentially improved through introduced and engaged community support.
Investing in Technology and Innovation
Research and Development Grants:
- When the workforce is encouraged through the support of R&D, innovation occurs, jobs are created, and output is improved, enabling the economy to benefit in the long run.
Promoting Green Technologies:
- Job creation and emerging new industries will strengthen the economy while solving environmental problems through investments in new energy sources and sustainable practices.
- The economy is advised to take broad measures to stimulate it, such as cutting rates, which qualifies as monetary policy.
- However, for more economic recovery, those measures should be complemented with fiscal measures.
- Hence, the combination of short-term and long-term strategies empowers policymakers to use capital well during economic recessions.
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