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GCA Forums News For Friday February 13 2026
GCA Mortgage Forums News For Friday, February 13, 2026
On Friday, February 13, 2026, a mood of caution settled over U.S. markets. Stocks steadied after a bruising week, silver remained subdued, mortgage rates hovered near 6 percent, and political tensions simmered around Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sanctuary cities, and urban budget battles.
Stock market wrap February 13, 2026
U.S. stocks wrapped up the week on a steadier note, finding their footing after a turbulent stretch driven by tech selloffs and fresh inflation numbers.
- The S&P 500 is expected to rise about 0.13% today to 6836, but remains down 1.4% for the week.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to gain about 0.1% today but is projected to decline 1.2% for the week.
- The Nasdaq Composite slipped another 0.2% today, capping its fifth consecutive weekly loss—the longest losing streak since 2022. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is poised for a modest daily gain, though it too looks set to finish the week in the red.
Investors are reacting to inflation data showing prices fell more than expected, even though core inflation remained unchanged. This has made people think the Federal Reserve will be cautious about cutting rates in the future.
Since the February 2026 Massacre, Silver And Gold Have Been On A Wild Ride, Plunging Sharply After Reaching Dramatic Highs
- Between 2025 and early January 2026, silver soared 144%.
- By January, it had surged roughly 50%, peaking at [121-122] dollars per ounce before tumbling in a steep reversal.
- Between January 31 and February 2, silver fell 30-36%, dropping into the 70s and prompting many to sell assets.
Records show that borrowing to invest, trading rules, signals from the Federal Reserve, and market positioning all played a role in the drop, rather than just one cause. In February, 36% of silver futures and about 33% of gold futures were traded on borrowed money, forcing many traders to sell their contracts. This was a significant market shift.
- These events coincided with the Federal Reserve’s adoption of a more ‘hawkish’ policy stance, known in financial and political circles as the Warsh surprise.
- A jump in small investor borrowing and trading in silver funds made the market highly sensitive to economic changes.
- Experts say there is a bigger difference between dropping ‘paper’ silver prices and ongoing shortages of real silver, warning that big price swings are likely to continue.
Evidence shows major banks have manipulated silver prices in the past, but this does not prove they caused the February 2026 crash.
- Previous examples of price manipulation include “spoofing” and “bePrevious examples of price manipulation include “spoofing” and “benchmark-rigging.”
- In 2016, Deutsche Bank settled a class action lawsuit over silver price manipulation and provided documents naming other banks.
- JPMorgan and UBS have been convicted of manipulating benchmarks in both FX and metals markets.
- Hiding in the precious metals futures market, most analyses of the February 2026 crash emphasize margin increases, leverage, and the Federal Reserve’s ‘hawkish’ stance as primary causes, rather than attributing the event to a new coordinated conspiracy.
In summary, there is substantial evidence of market abuse in metals markets involving major banks, and the futures market can amplify these effects. However, no public evidence shows that JPMorgan Chase or other banks directly caused the silver price decline between January and February 2026.
As of mid-February 2026, live positions held by banks are accessible only through proprietary datasets such as the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports and bank-driven regulatory disclosures, which are aggregated and delayed rather than being real-time.
Commentary typically references increased speculation before the crash and rapid deleveraging, but no verified, up-to-date ledger of bank-by-bank live short positions is available.
What To Expect From Interest Rates, Mortgages, And Housing
Fed Policy Against The Backdrop Of ‘Live’ Rates
The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its first 2026 meeting, after three cuts in 2025.
- In the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and 2% inflation, policymakers made the cuts to keep the economy from overheating.
- Because core inflation is still high and the economy is slowing, people are more cautious about expecting large interest rate cuts in 2026.
Current Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have declined from peaks above 7% in early 2025. Nationwide, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ranged from 6% to 6.2%, with some trackers reporting rates between 6.05% and 6.15% as of February 13, 2026.
According to Forbes data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average rate for 30-year mortgages was 6.21% for the week ending February 6, 2026. This rate is consistent with levels observed before 2020.
The Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae caution that, barring unexpected growth or inflation, most forecasts anticipate continued economic shocks, which could drive rates lower. However, projections of rates falling below 0% by 2026 lack support.
2026 Housing And Mortgage Outlook
The housing outlook is cautiously optimistic, but most people do not expect the same level of growth seen in 2023 and 2024. Lower rates, higher 2026 loan limits, and more loans for people who do not meet standard rules should help more people borrow and buy homes. However, because there are not many homes for sale and people with very low-rate loans are unlikely to move, prices should stay up, but there will be fewer sales. Home buying and refinancing are expected to recover slowly but steadily from 2026. Since homes are still expensive in coastal and high-tax areas, the recovery will likely be slow e gradual.
Updates From Gustan Cho Associates, NEXA, AXEN Realty, And GCA
While public updates are scarce, several industry trends are still coGustan Cho Associates is focusing on simple lending rules and is expanding into loans for people who do not meet standard requirements, as well as 2026 VA and FHA loans and higher loan limits. They are taking advantage of the higher 2026 loan limits to help people with lower credit scores or unusual income, showing a bold plan to grow this year. the year ahead.ne.
- As of mid-February 2026, NEXA Mortgage appears to be growing steadily, with little regulatory or media scrutiny.
- It is described as a large, broker-centric platform, though detailed internal updates are not publicly available.
- AXEN Realty is hiring a lot of people, and social media is full of talk about events like ‘Level Up Live’ in Tampa and encouraging agents to build their own brands.
- This clearly shows the company is growing and building an energetic culture.
- GCA Mortgage Forums, launched by Gustan Cho Associates, is a new national hub for the public, real estate investors, and professionals.
- With real-time economic and housing news, lively discussions, and a push for brand visibility, the platform’s names—’Great Content Authority Forums and ‘GCA Mortgage Forums’—signal a wider community mission.
- That mortgage and real estate companies are preparing for a gradual improvement in 2026, with more emphasis on niche communities and brand development.
- This shift is likely due to the expectation that extremely low interest rates will not return.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, The Investigation, And Comments About Gold
Status Of The Powell Investigation
Jerome Powell, who is still the current Fed chair, is under active investigation by the Justice Department for criminal charges related to cost overruns and disclosures regarding the Federal Reserve’s multi-billion-dollar renovation of its Washington headquarters.
- Federal prosecutors in Washington began the investigation in November 2025 to determine whether Powell was deceptive to Congress about the scope and cost of the renovation, which was estimated at 2.5 billion, approximately 700 million over the previous estimate.
- In January 2026, Powell was the first to state that the Fed was the recipient of grand jury subpoenas, which Powell described as a politically partisan attempt to influence the central bank to lower the interest rates.
- As of February 2026, Powell has not been charged, and the investigation remains focused on document requests and testimony.
- Powell made a rare public statement defending the Federal Reserve against partisan criticism, calling the allegations attempts to influence the central bank’s control over monetary policy.
- He maintained a defiant stance and warned that such attacks could undermine the Federal Reserve’s autonomy.
Public transcripts and coverage consistently show Powell stating that the Fed aims to control overall financial conditions and inflation, not individual asset prices. He has systematically downplayed gold and other commodities as direct policy targets, suggesting gold prices do not influence the Fed’s daily operations.
- Although quotes differ by venue, Powell has consistently stated that gold is not a target policy variable for the Fed, whose targets are inflation, employment, and the stability of the financial system.
- Market analysts interpret this to mean that gold price declines have little influence on policymakers, especially during the recent downturn. Official statements continue to treat metal price fluctuations as peripheral and show no concern.
National Economic News: Unemployment, Inflation, Red/Blue State Stress, And Clashes In Sanctuary Cities
Context Of The Labor Market And Inflation
- Inflation has decreased from its 2022-2023 highs but remains a key risk.
- The latest CPI data shows a small, better-than-expected drop, while core measures stay unchanged.
- Over the past three years, U.S. inflation has peaked earlier than in previous decades but has not returned to the Fed’s 2% target.
- The labor market remains robust, supporting the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
Conflict Between Trump, ICE, and Federal Funding
At the start of 2026, tensions escalated between the Trump administration and Democrat-led sanctuary jurisdictions, leading to increased political and legal challenges.
- President Donald Trump said that by the end of January 2026, he would cut off federal funding to sanctuary cities that protect migrants from deportation and bill the federal government for migrant-related costs.
- Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson stated the city receives over $3 billion in federal grants. He strongly opposed the funding cuts, calling them ‘unnatural’ and questioning their legitimacy.
- Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker has also legally challenged the cuts and proposed reductions to mental health and addiction treatment funding, which would affect the most vulnerable.ivities in Chicago and Minneapolis illustrate the central roles of Chicago,
- Mayor Brandon Johnson, and Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony in the region’s fiscal and political issues.
- The Department of Justice released documents early in 2026.
- The DOJ has released about 3 million documents, courtroom footage, videos, and other materials under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, but these are still under review for potential issues.
- NPR has highlighted the Epstein case’s newly released files, which mention several influential people, including Donald Trump, but these mentions do not imply any criminal actions. how they are trying to access the DOJ’s online archive files related to it.
- The online archive contains documents that do not adequately protect the identities of the victims, and the advocates demanded that a special master oversee the edits.
- CBS has reported that the released Epstein case documents reveal the case’s global scope, with the UK investigating several former high-ranking government officials.
The Finances Of States Such As New York, California, And Several Red States Are Under Significant Strain
Political soundbites often oversimplify the complex financial pressures facing states and cities.
- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani stated that Eric Adams under-budgeted his term by about $12 billion, calling it the ‘Adams Budget Crisis.’
- Capitol Confidential reported that the budget gap is expected to be about $7 billion in the coming weeks, due to higher-than-expected income tax revenue, an aggressive savings plan, and some use of reserves.
- More details are expected in February.
- Mamdani said the state imposes a legal ‘drain’ on the city’s finances, as the city raises more tax revenue than it spends.
- He is urging the state to provide additional financial support. ial services, pensions, and the financial impact of new migrants.
- However, attributing fiscal challenges to any single city is not substantiated by available data.
- Assertions that ‘red states are going broke’ or ‘blue cities are going broke’ lack empirical support.
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3 Replies
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Americans have a big problem when it comes to realizing the American Dream of owning a home. Home Affordability is out of reach for so many hard working people. Look at the home prices and how much it has skyrocketed. Home Affordability used to be a problem for those wanting to buy a house in high cost, high priced states like California, Hawaii, New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Alaska. However, home affordability is now a nationwide problem. Home prices have doubled in the past ten years in many cities, counties, and states. Mortgage rates have skyrocketed from a low of 2.5% in 2019 to today’s 6.5%. President Trump has made illegal for big companies and billionaires from buying up property like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Black Rock used to buy up homes, farm land, and tons of properties throughout the United States driving up real estate prices. What is your forecast on what is going to happen to the housing and mortgage market? Are most Americans remain renters and not be able to afford homes? I really believe that home prices need to collapse. I think that a real estate meltdown is much needed like the 2007 financial crisis. Isn’t it common sense what goes up needs to come down? Look at inflation? Everything is out of control because the Feds are printing money. The U.S. Dollar needs to be backed by gold and silver. When is that going to happen?
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Housing affordability is a national issue. As of April 2026, 30-year fixed mortgage rates range from 6.46% to 6.51%. Existing-home sales remain stagnant. The median home price was $398,000 in February and $415,450 in March, according to Realtor.com. Active listings have increased 8.1% year over year but are still 13.6% below March 2019 levels. Buyers continue to face high rates and limited inventory.
To clarify, mortgage rates were not 2.5% in 2019; sub-3% rates occurred primarily in 2020 and 2021. Current mid-6% rates represent a significant increase. Although the January 2026 executive order restricts large investors from purchasing single-family homes, it is not yet fully implemented, so companies and high-net-worth individuals can still buy homes.
A sharp market shift is unlikely in the near term. Homeowners with low rates and high equity are insulated from moderate-income buyers. The market remains stable despite economic pressures, pending a broader recovery.
The National Association of Realtors reports that affordability is improving too slowly. Reuters and AP also note weak sales and slow market activity.
A 2007-style crash is unlikely. A gradual correction is more probable, with stagnant national prices, slight local declines, increased price reductions, slower sales, and improved buying power in overbuilt areas. S&P Case-Shiller reports 0.9% annual home price growth (Jan 2026), while Realtor.com notes a 2.2% median price drop (March). Stagnation and localized declines, rather than a broad downturn, are expected.
A prolonged period of flat prices is likely, rather than a repeat of 2006–2008. Credit and leverage are stronger now. The Fed’s 2025 report indicates most debt is held by households with strong credit. The New York Fed reported a 1.4% increase in mortgage delinquencies (2025 Q4), but levels remain near pre-Depression norms. Market crashes typically require forced sales, weak credit, high supply, and rising defaults. Currently, the main challenges are affordability and slow turnover, with lower national risk.
Over the next 12 to 18 months, I expect sales to stagnate, prices to remain stable overall, and further local declines. Affordability will likely improve gradually through income growth rather than a sharp downturn. Fannie Mae forecasts 2026 rates near 5.9%, and NAR anticipates slow improvements. Rates below 6% will support the market, though persistent inflation or geopolitical tensions may hinder progress.
Larger deficits, capital flows, supply constraints, and geopolitical factors can contribute to inflation, but attributing it solely to the “Fed printing money” oversimplifies the issue. The dollar has not been backed by gold or silver for decades. Reinstating such a standard would require major legal changes, and no such plans are currently known.
My plain English predictions are:
No, I do not believe most Americans will be renters for the rest of their lives.
Many working households may find home ownership unattainable unless interest rates decrease and supply increases. While most Americans are not expected to be lifelong renters, home ownership could remain out of reach for some due to inflation, increased listings, stagnant inventory, and localized price declines.
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The housing market is more likely to **Level off or gradually decelerate** than to completely collapse nationwide. The most significant issue is affordability rather than a repeat of the crash of 2007. Current predictions suggest that the national housing market will not see any significant increases or decreases in the average price of a home in 2026. Mortgage rates remain high enough to keep a significant amount of the buying population out of the housing market.
What is the most likely future prospect?
Home prices are high because in many markets there is not enough supply, but the rate of price increases is slowing. One of the major predictions expects home prices in the United States to increase 0.7% in 2026. Another major prediction expects national home prices to grow by nearly 0% which is symptomatic of a trend that is far from a collapse.
The primary factor for poor affordability is high mortgage rates. Even if prices stop increasing, high interest rates in the mid 6% range leave painful borrowing costs that keep first-time buyers in rental situations for longer.
Why is a crash improbable?
Most crashes are preceded by a forced selling, loss of jobs, and a backlog of foreclosures. Forecasts suggest that type of breakdown will occur and result in a collapse of the housing market. The prevailing prediction, but forecasters are Breakdown, slowing sales, balanced inventory, and small price reductions.
That being said, prices in the housing market may decline in certain local markets. The areas with the most new construction, areas with lower demand, specifically parts of the West Coast and the Sun Belt, are likely to see a more significant decline in prices than the national average.
Rent for the sake of ownership
A larger proportion of the population may remain renters if the cost of housing relative to wage increases does not change.
Numerous sources indicate that due to home prices and rents growing faster than income, jobs and income of many households are no longer in equilibrium which makes affordability worse and leaves households jobs priced out.
Still, that does not imply homeownership disappears. It likely becomes more segmented, with buyers narrowed down to households with stronger income, spending bigger amounts, family support, or in relocation to areas with cheaper housing and lower interest home\loan options and special loan assistance.
On your “prices need to collapse” view
A reset is understandable, but broad collapse will also hurt recent buyers, sellers needing to take equity from their housing to move, builders, lenders, and local municipalities that depend on property taxes. Instead of 2007, more realistic pathway would be to have slow appreciation, income gradually capturing over time, and increased housing supply.
In other words, what goes up does not come down fast with housing because shelter is still needed and supply is slow to respond. Unless there is an extreme increase in unemployment or credits, housing markets typically.
Dollar and gold
There are no indications that the U.S. dollar will likely be backed by gold or gold-silver in the near future. For many decades, The U.S. has functioned on a fiat currency system, and the return to a metal-backed dollar is not a policy path to be prospectively supported.
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