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How is it like being in the mortgage and real estate business these days? I know home prices are at historic highs and mortgage rates are still very high. What is it like being a NMLS licensed mortgage loan originator? How can you self-promote? What can you do to get leads of potential homebuyers or homeowners needing to refinance? Is there a way to get clients? What type of marketing can you do to get more business from homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors? How can you network and get loyal referral partners like real estate agents, attorneys, insurance agents, title companies, and other loan officers working at banks where they cannot do what you can do? If I want to buy leads, where can I go to buy good high caliber leads? What if you are a real estate agent? What can I do to get home buyers and home sellers? Can you give me some step by step tips on surviving this tough mortgage and real estate market? What can newer mortgage loan officers do to become successful as a NMLS mortgage loan originator and real estate agent? Any suggestions and advice would be greatly appreciated.
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GCA Forums News
Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Economic Overview
As forecasted, the performance of the United States Economy will be slow in the second quarter of 2025. Some major indicators show mixed results. According to early forecasts, GDP growth for Q1 is 1.8%, which is lower than the previous quarter’s growth of 2.1% in Q4 of 2024. Unemployment remains static at 4.3%. Given the continued shifts in some industries, this highlights a degree of equilibrium in the job market.
Federal Reserve & Interest Rates
In its March session, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate to the 3.75% to 4.00% range, the same as was set during February’s quarter-point decrease. This marks the second hold in a row. During the March meeting, Chair Powell informed the board that as long as the data remains reliable, two more cuts are projected to take place later in 2025. Certain market analysts believe the next cut will occur in the June meeting.
Inflation & CPI
Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, registered at 2.7%. Both Core and overall CPI have shown modest improvement from February’s readings. Marks for March’s CPI showing inflation was at 2.9% year on year, continuing its gradual decline towards the target of two percent Fed set.
Market Analysis: Real Estate Agency and Housing Sales
Real estate agencies described the housing market as having persistent inventory challenges until recently. Now, there is some constructive news:
The year-over-year change in housing inventory during March was positive (up by 7.3%), and it is now only 15% below pre-pandemic levels.
- The pace of existing home sales increased every month in March by 2.1% compared to the previous month (annualizing to 4.35 million units).
- The median price of homes in the country reached $416,800, a 4.7% jump from March 2024.
- Average Days on the market has increased to 34 days, suggesting an easing trend in some markets.
- New housing starts also represented a positive trend, increasing by 3.8% during March, the strongest monthly gain since September 2024.
Rates And Mortgages
After the February volatility, mortgage rates have somewhat stabilized:
- 30-year fixed rate: 6.22%. Reduced from last month’s 6.34ish.
- 15-year fixed rate: 5.57%. (Last month, 5.69ish).
- 5/1 ARM: 5.31%. (Month prior 5.45).
In previous records, the wording under these headings has been: “} Conventional loans: FHA, VA, USDA jumbo non-QM first time buyer down payment assistance rate term refi cash out reno reverse construction.”
Commercial Real Estate Market
Without going back to a more granular discussion, the commercial real estate market, which also encompasses the office space business, is still bleak today.
- The office vacancy rates remain uncomfortably high at 18.7% nationally.
- Grocery-anchored centers perform better than other retail properties and show an uneven recovery.
- The industrial sector otherwise maintains strong fundamentals with 3.8 percent vacancy rates.
- Multifamily absorption improved in the first quarter, though rent growth tempered to 2.3 percent year over year.
Markets & Investments
Financial markets have shown early resilience in April.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average – 42,276 (+0.8% MTD; +6.2% YTD).
- S&P 500 – 5,832 (+0.5% MTD; +8.4% YTD).
- NASDAQ Composite – 18,743 (+0.2% MTD; +11.1% YTD).
Precious metals:
- Gold – $2,384/oz (+2.1% MTD; +14.7% YTD).
- Silver – $29.82/oz (+3.5% MTD ; +16.3% YTD).
- Platinum – $1,003/oz (-0.7% MTD ; + 4.2% YTD).
Impact Assessment of Tariff
Trump’s broadened tariff policies have had subsequent economic impacts since being introduced in February 2025:
- The price of consumer goods has risen by 2-4% in every affected category.
- The cost of inputs for manufacturing has risen by 5.7% in certain more impacted industries.
Estimated:
- The impact on inflation will be an increase of 0.3-0.5pp for 2025.
- In protected industries, job gains have been approximately 28,000.
- In export-dependent industries, job losses are estimated to be around 32,000.
Additional Insight
- Interest rates remain high as the Fed balances inflation to avoid increased spending and stimulate growth.
On the more positive side, economists are less conclusively divided over future impacts. Regions that rely heavily on manufacturing will benefit economically, but dependently priced coastal regions will drastically increase price issues.
Grasping DEI
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) encompasses policies that foster the representation and participation of different groups, equitable access and opportunities, and a value placed on differing perspectives in the organization.
Current DEI Landscape:
- Corporate DEI programs underwent a fundamental evaluation from 2024 to early 2025.
- Legal scrutiny has caused different organizations to reassess their approach toward execution.
- Recent Supreme Court rulings continue to set new limits for institutional DEI policies.
- Many organizations adopt a “skills-first” approach to hiring while still wanting to meet diversity targets.
The small business effect is highly variable, and some employers find compliance, implementation costs, and regulation tedious.
The national dialogue concerning DEI has yet to achieve consensus, as advocates from different political camps argue for capped organizational efficiency, equity, and inclusivity.
GCA Forums News presents this summary for informational purposes only. Market conditions change quickly, and readers are advised to seek counsel from financial experts prior to making investment or lending decisions.
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GCA FORUMS HOUSING AND MORTGAGE NEWS
February 18, 2023
Market Updates – Mortgage Rates and Economy
Mortgage Rates:
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates today are approximately 6.5%.
- This is lower than the previous weeks, which may motivate some homebuyers to take advantage of the market despite the economic uncertainties.
10-Year Treasury Yield:
- At approximately 4.537%, the 10-year Treasury note yield impacts mortgage rates and investors’ inflationary and growth expectations, providing insight into future economic progress.
Gold and Silver Prices:
- Gold is approximately $2,950.20 per ounce, and silver is around $33.38 per ounce.
- Economic volatility is making these precious metals preferred safe-haven commodities.
Housing Market Overview
Home Prices:
- The median home price has increased by around 9%.
- In addition, the most populated cities continue to add more dollars, which makes it difficult for some buyers.
Inventory vs. Demand:
- Competition for homes has increased due to low inventory and high demand.
- Entry-level houses are particularly in high demand and are being sold even with higher mortgage rates.
Consequences of the Department of Government Efficiency
Oversight and Audits:
- The Department of Government Efficiency is executing audits to uncover inefficiencies within housing programs and agencies.
- Such scrutiny may contribute to reforms that increase resource availability for affordable housing initiatives.
Policy Advice:
- Changes within the department may help formulate policies favorable to the construction of affordable houses, positively impacting supply and stabilizing prices in the long term.
Consequences of the Structural Changes to a Federal Government Agency
Dissolution of The Federal Reserve Board, IRS, and CFPB:
- Rumor has it that some agencies may cease to exist, creating uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Should such changes take place, we may expect:
Wider Ranges in the Mortgage Rate:
- Uncertainty may cause investors to change their expectations, leading to fluctuations in the amount of mortgages available.
Regulatory Changes:
- The absence of the CFPB may increase the chances of lowering some consumer protections in the mortgage market and opening the gates for more manipulation and aggression toward borrowers.
- However, the CFPB has done absolutely nothing to protect consumers and has been protecting big banks.
Tax Risks:
- Could the IRS’s dissolution be an end to tax policy as we know it today?
- Such a shift could hinder funding for housing programs and thus limit the availability of affordable housing.
Current Economic Conditions
Policies of the Federation:
- Always pay attention to the current disputes with the Federal Reserve.
- Any shifts in the policy will affect the servicing of the mortgage debt.
- Most recently, an approach that promises the least volatility has been signaled cautiously.
- In this scenario, the looming rate increases may be softened.
Market Sentiments:
- Inflation and employment rates, as economic indicators, continue to work against the buyer’s will.
- Buyers’ willingness is suppressed by higher prices and increasing interest rates.
The dynamics of housing and mortgages are delicate, owing to the economic uncertainty underlying high prices and nominal inventory levels. The Department of Government Efficiency’s actions appear driven by the need to engineer change. However, the changes that the federal agencies propose may cause a storm. These factors are enough to wash investors and homebuyers off their feet; hence, they need to stay alert.
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What specific government initiatives are being explored to improve housing affordability?
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What are some historical examples of inflation’s impact on housing markets?
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Could you explain the relationship between inflation and housing supply?
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How might the Fed’s response to inflation affect housing prices?
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Folks, here is another informative video on the C8 CORVETTE transmission issued that owners needs to make sure you make sure to get addressed and not procrastinate.
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As of Trump’s newest housing plan, launched on February 18th, 2025, several key components have been included that specifically address the affordability and accessibility of housing across America.
Here are the specifics:
Expanded Down Payment Assistance Increased Funding
The plan suggests setting new benchmarks for federal funding down payment assistance programs for first-time home buyers and low- and middle-income families. Grants and Loans:
- This initiative also includes subsidized grants and loans, which cover down payments and closing costs and enable entry into the housing market.
Incentives for Affordable Housing Development Tax Credits:
- The plan also gives enhanced tax credits to developers who construct affordable housing units in outskirt urban areas with higher demand.
Streamlined Approval Processes:
- The initiative will aim to lift red tape and fast-track new housing development approvals for quicker building.
Zoning Reforms Flexible Zoning Regulations:
- This initiative encourages local authorities to pass zoning laws permitting high-density housing and mixed-use developments.
Support for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs):
- ADU policies are set forth to allow renting these units at a lower price.
Public and Private Sector Collaboration
Working Together with the Business Sector:
- The initiative seeks to collaborate between the government and private developers to effectively utilize resources for affordable homes.
Getting Stakeholders Involved:
- The emphasis is placed on getting the communities involved to ensure that the housing delivery projects undertaken genuinely address the requirements of the residents in that specific locality.
Concentration in Sustainable Development
Promotion of Energy-Efficient Structures:
- The initiative assists builders who are willing to use sustainable and energy-efficient measures to construct new housing projects.
Long-Term Climate Survivability:
- It also supports housing designs that can withstand the impacts of climate change, thereby encouraging long-term sustainability.
Support in Preventing Homelessness
Supportive Legal Services:
- The initiative designates money towards professional, supportive service assistance for people most at risk of becoming homeless to rehabilitate mentally and deal with substance abuse issues.
Facilitating The Shift From Homelessness To Permanent Housing:
- The initiative provides direction and support for individuals and families moving toward the end of the homelessness cycle by developing permanent housing to reduce the need for shelter.
Programs on Education
Homebuyer Training:
- The initiative sets aside money for teaching programs that instruct prospective homebuyers on the acquisition process, home financing, and responsible home ownership.
Evaluation and Responsibility
Evaluation Frequency:
- To meet responsibility requirements, the initiative’s impact on the availability and affordability of housing will be monitored and evaluated periodically.
- President Trump’s housing initiative aims to address the affordable housing problem from various angles.
The initiative intends to improve access to affordable housing for all Americans by focusing on financial aid, regulatory changes, sustainable practices, and community participation.
