[Lisa Jones]

Now and then, a public friendship hits a snag you never saw coming. When that happens, even the calmest people start second-guessing themselves.

Context: What is the “Big Beautiful Big” Disagreement?

Word on the street is that President Trump and Elon Musk have exchanged a few frosty looks lately.

• Trump said on camera that Musk was not a Trump guy, hinting that loyalty may be in short supply.
• Musk fires back by billing himself as a non-partisan maverick.
• Even if he quietly backs many MAGA ideas, he wants the government to keep its books open.
• Musk and Trump are both big egos.
• Blunt talk and wild visions are their default settings.
• A fresh round of headlines links the spat to money moves, public nods (or snubs), and who runs places like Truth Social versus X.
• Nobody has pinned a single meltdown to the words “Big Beautiful Big,” so that title might be a viral joke, not an official label.

If you want to track down the phrase, I can look into it, but so far, it looks like a meme factory hiccuping.

Elon Musk’s Position

• Your gut feeling about Musk is spot-on.
• The guy lives and breathes free speech, transparency, open tinkering, and good-old merit.
• He updates those values with every tweet.
• The guy speaks his mind and keeps his word.
• Some call it high integrity.
• Others say it hurts.
• He spends a surprising amount of energy wading into corporate scams, lazy government work, and lopsided news coverage.
• Honest folks who get up early and play straight can usually count on him.
• Cheaters hear the heat, and it isn’t pretty.
• Flag-waving aside, he pictures Earth as his office and backyard at the same time.
• He throws cash into U.S. projects but won’t wear either party’s jersey for a selfie.
• Loyalty is Trump’s favorite coin, even when the market stalls.

He enjoys strength, yet he wants public proof that you’re with him. Tweets, handshakes, whatever proves you care.

• Like Musk, allies who keep their spine can suddenly feel the blast radius.
• Shared goals matter less than the show of faith.
• Trump calls Musk brilliant, maybe dangerous, and someone who won’t wait to take a victory lap.
• Dramas between big egos are almost boring because they happen constantly.
• Both men want America out in front and share a matching rage about crooked bureaucracy.
• The fix is simple.
• Learn to swerve around the bumps instead of trading punches over them.

Clear the Air and Move Forward

• America wins when its biggest stars pick up the phone instead of throwing firewood on an old argument.
• A quick chat could turn division into cooperation. Both men would walk away stronger, and so would the country.

Why Many People Trust Elon Musk

• A surprising number of folks, red states, blue states, and everywhere in between, look at Musk and give a nod.
• They say he’s honest because he tweets publicly and doesn’t hide behind polished press releases.
• His record backs that up. We fly rockets, build electric cars, and grind out solar panels all under the same brand, and that kind of consistency earns street-level respect.
• Count personal courage among the reasons, too.
• When regulators push, when newspapers snipe, Musk holds his ground and makes it look easy.
• At this stage, the man has little to prove.
• Every launch, every quarterly report, every surprise news drop shouts louder than any bumper sticker slogan.

Final Thoughts on Trump and Musk

• In private conversation, most Americans admit they’re not rooting for one side and jeering at the other.
• It’s not Team Trump versus Team Musk.
• It’s Team America finding common ground.
• Trump has lived on the tarmac of tense negotiations, so a face-to-face meeting would play to his strengths.
• Honesty, however brash, is a language the former president speaks fluently.
• Musk respects that directness, even if the blunt words sometimes sting.
• He’s spent years dodging gamified headlines, so plain talk feels like fresh air.
• If the two sit down, shake hands, and hammer out a plan, even one, they only half agree on, America inches forward.
• That alone might be the biggest win.

Quick Take

• Yes, the news feels rough right now, and that sting is understandable.
• Even so, a flicker of optimism can sit next to that disappointment.
• They have big, loud personalities, and these two fit that mold.
• They are never polite to each other when the cameras are on.
• Still, if they step back and look at the wider horizon, the partnership some folks call once-in-a-generation might hit its launch pad.
• If you want the nitty-gritty, the stuff that makes a long weekend of scrolling feel worthwhile.
• I can drop a few extras your way.
• Jump into the latest on-the-record quotes both leaders fired off this week.
• Swipe some behind-the-scenes intel from party veterans who argue a repair is not just possible but necessary.
• Sort through the snap polls and chatter on social media to see whether voters are screaming for a reunion or deciding they’re over it.

Let me know, and I’ll snag that intel faster than you can refresh your feed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjbJTdaYuD8&list=RDNSPjbJTdaYuD8&start_radio=1

[Lisa Jones]

I think Jeeps are great investments especially compared to other cars.. Also, C3 Corvette Convertible.

[Lisa Jones]

Access the data at Great Community Authority Forums, Miami’s housing market is hitting a downturn in 2025, with home values now officially declining on a YoY basis. Home values in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach are now dropping due to a big surge in inventory. Home values are now dropping in almost every part of South Florida in 2025, including condos on the beach as well as single-family homes. Even in markets like Coral Gables and Pembroke Pines, home values are now dropping. Revenuer’s housing market forecast and overvaluation rate suggests home values in Miami will keep dropping in 2025 and potentially in 2026 as well.

https://youtu.be/lHX6WG3iySo?si=TM9xNdVoB9lW8V2t

• This reply was modified 9 months, 2 weeks ago by  Lisa Jones.
• This reply was modified 9 months, 2 weeks ago by  Lisa Jones.
• This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Sapna Sharma.

[Lisa Jones]

Wall Street is bankrupt and 401k miserably fails experiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average skyrocketing and plummeting is not healthy for our economy. The 2008 Financial Crisis will have a repeat in the coming weeks and months, except it will be much worse. Stay tuned folks 😎

https://youtu.be/wrIned68QUo?si=kufU-hQ5DNWTcbGP

[Lisa Jones]

The best cheap truck you can buy is only $20,000! I recently found myself wanting to buy a truck… but every time I go to the dealer lots, I get instant sticker shock. So the only solution to this overpriced truck problem is to find a used truck that’s reliable, easy to maintain, and won’t leave me broke at the end of the day.

Pricing for New Trucks

The pricing of new trucks changes with the make, model, trim, and various features. It seems like there is availability of data, thus;

Entry-Level Models:

An example of a low-tier new pickup truck is the 2024 Nissan Frontier S Pickup, which goes for the low price of $34,170

Mid-Range to High-End Models:

Advanced trims on other brands also have pricing similar to or lower than full-size and heavy-duty trucks. For instance, the 2024 Ram 2500 Limited Pickup is priced to sell at $98,055.

Also, look at the Ford F150 or Ram 1500, which start at a low price of $50,000. At the same time, top trims or specialized versions, such as the Ram 3500, ramp up above $80,000.

Market Trends:

As demand for trucks increases due to their preferred multifunctionality as work vehicles and their modern advanced features, supply has been restricted as slower sales outpace demand. Some models, especially ones with redesigns for 2025, may have minimal incentives for sellers, keeping prices higher.

Pricing for Used Trucks

Aged trucks and their prices in 2025 appear to show some contrasting trends due to the way they are used and aged, the condition of the car, and how the market ebbs and flows:

Average Prices:

As of 2025, the average price of cars is 25,128, with aged preset trucks increasing more slowly due to the cool transient period in spring. Nonetheless, certain aged preset truck prices differ:

Class 8 Trucks:

The average retail pricing for June 2024 was 54,300, a decline of 7.6% from May 2024 and a year-over-year drop of 20% from June 2023, indicating the market softening.

Pickup Trucks:

The pickup truck market can be pretty pricey, especially for used models. Take a decade-old pickup truck, for example. If it has more than 100,000 miles on it, it could be advertised for $40,000. Some periphery markets might even consider that a “good deal.” The conquest of the cheapest used pickup goes to the Dodge Dakota, which has an average listing price of just above $8,500.

Market Trends:

The pricing structure for used trucks mainly results from frantic buyers seeking more economical choices for in-stock, high-priced new vehicles. Many work vehicles in demand alongside uncertain tariffs are slightly pushing prices, yet they align with pre-pandemic trends. This leads to the conclusion that pricing will stabilize and lower before 2024, while potential growth year over year may commence in early 2025. Frustration over the used truck market bubbles up across multiple X platforms, especially when discussing how even the older models are more expensive than new vehicles launched a couple of years ago, and suggesting they be priced like new cars.

New Trucks

Soaring prices have been caused by the high supply of premium vehicles, cutting-edge tech (e.g., cab shifting and premium cabs), and an ever-growing supply gap caused by slower sales of new trucks.

Used Trucks:

Pricing considers mileage, age, condition, and a low supply of trade-ins. Used trucks are becoming more affordable due to limited availability and shrinking freight hauling capacity. Concerns about tariffs and tax refund distribution are also contributing to demand.

Depreciation Advantage:

Older model trucks tend to hold value better after the initial depreciation period, making registration, taxes, insurance, and financing cheaper.

Where to Find Pricing Information

New Trucks:

J.D. Power lists MSRP and dealer pricing, along with available deals. Edmunds has model-specific pricing available as well.

Used Trucks:

Kelley Blue Book, Carfax, Carvana, and Autotrader provide access to listings and pricing tools. For commercial trucks, visit Penske Used Trucks or Commercial Truck Trader.

Valuation Tools:

Trade-in and retail values are accessible through NADAguides and Black Book via CarEdge.

Recommendations

For new trucks:

Check out the other model years offered at Edmunds or J.D. Power for discounted year savings on the older version.

For used trucks:

Get certified pre-owned (CPO) trucks and enjoy better financing rates and warranty coverage. Verify purchase reliability through history reports like Carfax. Beware of older trucks over-retailing. Trust Kelley Blue Book or NADA for reasonable prices.

Keep an Eye on the Market:

Due to tariff uncertainties, prices might increase, so purchasing earlier would be prudent. Anticipate stabilization of prices for commercial trucks until 2024, followed by growth in 2025.

Please indicate make, model, region, and other relevant details so I can offer tailored data. Would you like me to plot truck prices or fetch real-time listings for you?

https://youtu.be/pTFuohy198c?si=XcZa3DK1cTPeaC5g

• This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Gustan Cho.

[Lisa Jones]

Let’s face it, despite what you see on social media, agents are going broke. And, despite record low number of sales (even worse than the GFC), agents going broke is nothing new.

In a deep dive video, Brittany and I explore agent statistics, sales volume, units, and profitability at each level of agent production. This is the information I wish I knew when I first got into real estate, but no one either knew this information or was willing to tell me.

The numbers tell the story and will put your career, and your finances, in perspective.

This is THE secret information real estate brokerage owners don’t want you to know, but it’s the most important for you to know as a savvy business owner.

At the end of the video, we share the simple, straight forward solutions for how agents can avoid these common pitfalls that lead to thousands of agents going broke and running back to their W2 job.

It’s also the solutions we used to grow our net worth to multiple seven figures within 5 years of being in real estate.

https://youtu.be/3WTY3XVv_70?si=gsy38B4uS5Z9LpkD

[Lisa Jones]

The GCA Forums, operated by Gustan Cho Associates, are a prominent online community focused on mortgage lending, real estate, and financial topics. Here’s an overview of what the GCA Forums offer:

### Key Features of GCA Forums:

1. **Expert Insights**: The forums feature contributions from industry experts, including Gustan Cho and other experienced professionals. This ensures that the information shared is accurate and up-to-date.

2. **Diverse Topics**: The forums cover a wide range of subjects, including:

– Mortgage lending practices and regulations

– Non-prime and non-QM lending

– Real estate investment strategies

– Financial planning and debt management

– Industry news and trends

3. **Community Support**: Members can ask questions, share experiences, and seek advice from a community of like-minded individuals. This peer-to-peer support is invaluable for both novice and experienced professionals.

4. **Educational Resources**: The forums often include links to articles, webinars, and other educational materials that help members deepen their understanding of mortgage lending and real estate.

5. **Networking Opportunities**: The GCA Forums provide a platform for networking with industry professionals, potential business partners, and clients.

6. **Regulatory Updates**: Given the ever-changing landscape of mortgage regulations, the forums are a reliable source for staying informed about the latest developments and how they may impact lending practices.

### Popular Sections:

– **Mortgage Lending**: Discussions on various types of mortgages, including FHA, VA, USDA, and non-QM loans.

– **Real Estate Investment**: Strategies and tips for investing in real estate, including flipping, renting, and long-term investments.

– **Financial Planning**: Advice on managing personal finances, reducing debt, and planning for the future.

– **Industry News**: Updates on the latest trends, regulations, and news affecting the mortgage and real estate industries.

### Membership:

– **Access**: The forums are typically open to both professionals and consumers, although some sections may be restricted to registered members or industry experts.

– **Engagement**: Active participation is encouraged, and members are often rewarded for their contributions through recognition and potential opportunities for collaboration.

### Benefits:

– **Knowledge Sharing**: Members can learn from the collective experience and knowledge of the community.

– **Problem-Solving**: The forums provide a space to discuss challenges and find solutions to complex problems.

– **Professional Development**: Engaging with industry experts and peers can enhance professional skills and knowledge.

The GCA Forums are a valuable resource for anyone involved in mortgage lending, real estate, or financial planning, offering a wealth of information and a supportive community.

[Lisa Jones]

Complete Description of Sanctuary States and Cities and Immigration Enforcement

Sanctuary States and Cities: Definition and Scope

• Sanctuary jurisdictions are regions (states, cities, or counties) that restrict collaboration with immigration authorities, specifically ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), to shield undocumented immigrants from removal proceedings.
• Though lacking a strict legal definition, sanctuary policies are characterized by ignoring or refusing to comply with ICE detainer requests (which are non-binding hold requests), barring local police from aiding ICE in cross-border enforcement, and restricting status information shared about immigrants.
• As conveyed by sanctuary proponents, the primary rationale is to build trust so that immigrants can report crimes and access public services without the risk of deportation.
• The Trump administration and other critics of sanctuary policies have argued that these policies endanger public safety by harboring criminal offenders.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) identified over 500 sanctuary jurisdictions by June 2025, which include major cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Boston, Denver, and Seattle, as well as entire states like California, New York, and Illinois. These jurisdictions are split into different groups because of their unique policies:

California:

• The California Values Act (SB 54) prohibits state and local law enforcement from using resources for immigration enforcement, except in cases involving serious crimes.
• Custody cannot be taken of persons to check if they are undocumented, nor can inquiries on immigration status be made.

Illinois:

The Illinois TRUST Act limits cooperation with ICE. It prohibits local law enforcement from complying with ICE detainer requests unless there is a federal criminal warrant for the person. Chicago, a sanctuary city, has opted into these protections and enforces the law.

New York City:

• Customers cannot be asked about their immigration status, ensuring undocumented immigrants can access essential services like driver’s licenses.
• Police must also record requests for ICE to cooperate with other jurisdictions.

Other Jurisdictions:

• Counties with smaller populations, like Hooker County in Nebraska and Kit Carson County in Colorado, were controversially dubbed sanctuaries because of support for Trump policies.
• This was likely due to confusion over unrelated resolutions, such as “Second Amendment sanctuaries.”
• Critics have indicated that some listings are inaccurate, as some jurisdictions that cooperate with ICE or lack a considerable immigrant population are noted.
• Arrests have been made for unpermitted gatherings in protest of heightened ICE enforcement in Los Angeles and Charleston, South Carolina.

Illegal Immigration: Scale and Impact

• The undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. as of 2022 is around eleven million, with California hosting the largest population.
• This, alongside the social and political implications that stem from illegal immigration, puts a strain on public resources while creating job opportunities.

Economic Impact:

• The undocumented labor force boosts construction, hospitality, agriculture, and diverse industries.
• Fear surrounding ICE raids puts the workforce on edge, perpetuating the labor shortage businesses have reported.

Social Dynamics:

• Opponents of sanctuary city policies that aim to protect immigrants by providing them refuge from serving as witnesses or victims of crimes cite these frameworks as enablers of crime.
• Justifying a crackdown is easier with highlighted cases from the Trump Administration, along with alleged gang members such as Tren de Aragua.

Political Polarization:

• Years of immigration being the center of dispute remain unchanged, with the split among citizens.
• 45% of those surveyed approve of Rump’s plan, while the other half is concerned about the lack of process being present.
• Deportation Efforts Under the Trump Administration
• The deportation policies and practices since Trump took office in January 2025 show a clear shift from the previously followed policies under Biden.
• In enforcement and deportation efforts, he has restricted race and longitude, using deportation as a means of punishment:

ICE Raids:

• On January 23, after the lifting of Biden-era mandates, Biden held high-profile ICE raids on sanctuary cities like Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Miami, and Los Angeles, capturing over 538 individuals.
• With the retraction of the Bidon-canned directive, raids have stretched beyond the workplace to include homes and even sensitive locations, including schools, hospitals, and places of worship.

Alien Enemies Act:

• Applying the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, Trump has been able to cut down on the so-called Venezuelan gang members through expedited and incomplete deportations.
• Although he provided no evidence supporting such claims, many were deported to Venezuela without any legal action.
• His illegal deportations, such as Garcia returning from El Salvador, who was illegally deported, claim due process violations.

Detention and Deportation Numbers:

• Due to the lack of legal hurdles, facilities can hold 48,000 with a targeted cap of 41,500.
• Alongside this, deportations have risen but dropped compared to the previous 195,000 and 2024 by 130,000 in early 2025.
• There are plans to build more detention areas in Fort Bliss and Guantanamo Bay.

Suspicious Actions:

The military’s increased presence at the borders and the adoption of warrantless home entries raise concerns about using military troops for law enforcement activities within the United States.

Judicial Battles with the Left

• Trump has conflicted with both state and federal judges who have attempted to stop him, and in some cases, “protect” him from the legally sanctioned due process for using executive orders to remove individuals from the country ruthlessly.
• Several judges, including Trump-appointed judges, have cautioned that the removal of due process would be limited to immigrants and citizens.

Important Decisions by the Court:

Challenges of the Alien Enemies Act:

In April 2025, the Supreme Court made a late-night decision on deportation under the Alien Enemies Act, stressing the importance of due process.

Funding for Sanctuary Jurisdiction:

He denied the ability to withhold funds provided to him in his sanctuary jurisdictions by a federal judge. Said the acts committed were beyond executive jurisdiction.

Abrego Garcia Case:

Judge Paula Xinis, in disregard for presidential compliance, ordered daily reports from the rest of the government about the return of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, who was deported in breach of a court order.

Bias Accusations:

• For deportation-related rulings, the administration headed by Stephen Miller and Pam Bondi has branded judges as “deranged” or part of a “judicial coup,” even attacking Republican-appointed ones.
• Over 150 judges condemned these attacks, citing the loss of judicial independence as an immense danger to democracy.

Pam Bondi’s Involvement:

As attorney general, Pam Bondi became infamous for relentlessly prosecuting immigrants as a key policy focus of the Trump administration, going after enforcement obstacles such as ICE.

Prosecutions:

• In light of a January 2025 DOJ memo, Bondi has been actively prosecuting state and municipal officials, even judges, for obstructing the imposition of immigration policies.
• She justified the prosecution of Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan, labeling her behavior as “shocking” and reiterating that “no one is above the law.”

Public Statements:

• Deeming Border and Immigration judges as “deranged” as she took part in a broader conversation about judicial mismanagement on Fox News.
• Bondi linked Dugan’s case to offering protective measures to “violent criminals,” where most evidence suggests the opposite is true.

Court Battles:

• Bondi has resisted surrendering to court orders, claiming the President’s prerogative on national security matters and deportations is beyond judicial review.
• She ignored pleas to hand over Abrego Garcia, stating it was up to El Salvador’s President to determine his destiny.

Kash Patel’s Role

• Patel has Trump’s backing for his role as FBI Director, spearheading brand-name arrests and messaging.

Judge Dugan Arrest Controversy:

• On X, Patel claimed credit for Dugan’s “Hannibal Lecter” style arrest and has since doubled without addressing the controversy.

Patel’s Failsafe Public Messaging:

• Aside from deleting shoutouts to himself, he has added to their narrative by claiming that enforcing the law adds to “no one is above the law.”
• Patel’s FBI has also taken a deeper look at other officials who he claims have been engaged in various forms of ICE obstruction as part of a grander scheme to comply with the Trump administration’s deportation agenda.

Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan Case

The FBI arrested Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Dugan on April 25, 2025, for interfering with an operational ICE, as well as for hide and seek: concealing an individual to prevent arrest. Some other undisclosed details include:

Incidents:

• On April 18, 2025, Eduardo Flores Ruiz, a Mexican national who had been deported previously in 2013, attempted to be taken into custody by ICE agents during the hearing for his pending battery-domestic abuse.
• He was scheduled to appear at the Milwaukee County Courthouse.
• Dugan ICE’s presence allegedly commands them to garner a judicial warrant.
• Covertly, she and her entourage and Flores Ruiz strolled through a private jury door into the waiting arms of the ICE agents.
• Accordingly, he was arrested after a slight foot chase.
• Dugan faces up to six years in prison if convicted. After appearing in federal court, she was released on O.R. and must attend a hearing on May 15, 2025.
• Her attorney, Steven Biskupic, stated she would “defend herself vigorously” and expects exoneration.

Criticism:

• Governor Evers and Senator Baldwin denounced the arrest as an assault on judicial independence, which they claimed undermines democratic checks and balances.
• Milwaukee County Executive Crowley labeled it an attempt to intimidate judges who oppose Trump’s policies politically.
• More than 150 former judges wrote to Bondi that the arrest was an “abuse of power.”

Context:

• Dugan was elected in 2016 after working as a poverty lawyer.
• She has a long history of activism, advocating for vulnerable communities.
• The administration alleges her conduct placed public safety in peril, while her supporters maintain she was upholding due process.

Other Judges Supporting Illegal Migrants

The Trump administration has gone after other judges they feel enable illegal immigration, increasing the temperature:

New Mexico Judge Joel Cano.

• Former Judge Joel Cano and his wife, Nancy, were charged with the alleged crime of harboring a Venezuelan who is associated with Tren de Aragua and the destruction of evidence (a cellphone).
• Cano resigned, and the New Mexico Supreme Court barred him from further judicial service.

Massachusetts Case (2018):

During the first term of Trump, a judge and a court officer from Massachusetts faced charges for facilitating the escape of an undocumented immigrant from ICE at the courthouse, which sets a precedent for these types of actions.

Further Crackdown:

• The changes at the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA) are at the forefront of a much wider and deeper problem.
• Texas and Southern Region professors claimed that the BIA practitioners perfectly embody lax problem-solving.
• Morrison goes even further and says that BIA practitioners should not be given serious consideration because their solution strategy lacks time and effort.
• Eight immigration judges from Los Angeles, California, and Massachusetts lost their jobs.
• They were considered on leave in the year 2025 for decisions purported to be made on purpose to avoid deportation.
• Miller attended the judges as well as the rest of Donald Trump’s staff and proceeded to claim that these judges were insane or going rogue in a court of law.

Pandemonium, along with Further Effects

Focusing on the Area of Concern, multiple problems have emerged, including a rising mix of distress between state and local peace enforcers, judicial restraints, and public outrage.

Protests and Violence:

• Propagated riots that circled ICE raids started issuing in Los Angeles, including frozen phrases as protest ensued on June 6, 2025.
• In Los Angeles, over a thousand anarchists clashed with Police services that usually issue song juggling and, of course, physical combat alongside the services, leading to arrest and injury.
• The National Guard was then activated, resulting in maximal conflict impacting local and federal agencies, which was witnessed in Texas, Alabama, and South Carolina.

Further Afghan Actions:

• These are actions that Miller planned during another alternative scenario where Donald Trump wins.
• He implemented the proceeds by working towards bringing each of the other state dams without renewing barrage guarantees through Anegon.

Political Backlash:

• Both Democrat Senators Chris Van Hollen and Dick Durbin are blaming Trump for testing the limits of the Constitution.
• Congress Republicans target sanctuary cities, inviting mayors from Boston, Chicago, Denver, and even New York for hearings.

Critical Analysis of Misinformation:

Assertions made on X and some other platforms misuse the “left-wing judge” term by exaggerating the role of judges like Bass and Johnson through riot incitement or hounding of ICE agents. These stories are devoid of facts and tend to be biased.

Judicial Independence:

Judges Dugan and Cano’s apprehension threatens the balance of judicial independence due to executive authority overreach, considering Patel’s posted pictures of governance and Bondi’s statements.

Due Process:

• The use of the term “criminal alien” by the administration focuses too much on active wrongdoers, further perpetuating the erasure of non-actors such as Abrego Garcia and Bhutanese refugees, endangering statelessness and human rights abuses.

Sanctuary Policies:

Although sanctuary jurisdictions are intended to protect communities, their inclusion on DHS lists, even when welcoming cooperation with ICE, suggests a co-opted policy aimed at targeting politics rather than clarity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w7bg5v3szU&list=RDNS0w7bg5v3szU&start_radio=1

[Lisa Jones]

Hey, Julio, the economic and stock market changes caused by Trump’s statements have created much buzz. This is particularly interesting in the context of housing and mortgage markets, inflation, and other related factors. This analysis will address your questions and concerns regarding first-time homebuyers, the overall housing market, and Trump’s reasoning behind his actions. To complete the stock market picture, I’ll also discuss the skeptical views about its valuation and the potential layoffs and bankruptcies.

What is Happening in the Housing and Mortgage Markets?

Current Trends in the Housing Market – May 2025

Pricing of Homes:

Prices are still growing, but at a tempered rate relative to the existing pace. As of January 2025, the median sale price of existing homes was 396,900, a 4.0 percent increase from the previous year. Although prices continue to grow, the pace is much more subdued vis-à-vis the double-digit growth rates during the pandemic. Increasing prices and moderately strong demand due to a persistent supply shortage of nearly 5 million homes will drive prices up by 2-3% annually through 2029. There are regional variations, too. The South and West have stronger construction than the Northeast and Midwest, which remain supply-strained.

Housing Supply:

Although supply remains low, the inventory is improving. As of March 2025, there was a 4-month supply of homes, which is still lower than the 5-6 months required for equilibrium, but is a 19.8 percent increase from last year. Till then, prices will continue to enjoy upward pressure due to suppressed supply. Demand continues to exceed supply, but many homeowners are locked into low mortgage rates from years past (for example, 3-4% rates) and are reluctant to sell in a higher rate environment.

Housing Construction: Home construction is a bright spot, likely adding 1.1 million homes in 2025, a rise of 13.8 percent from 2024.

These homes are more compact and geared towards new buyers, especially in the Sun Belt (Texas, Florida, Arizona). To some extent, Trump’s tariffs on lumber (like 14.5% on Canadian Imports with a potential increase to 40%) would also slow construction while raising prices anywhere from $9,200 to $25,000, raising building costs.

Mortgage Market Trends May 2025: Mortgage Rates:

They’re not surging, but mortgages are still holding at a heightened level. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of late April 2025 sits at 6.86%, slightly lower than earlier in the year’s peak of 7%. Forecasts suggest they will hold between 6.3%-6.7% throughout 2025, with a potential drop to 6.2% and 6.4% by the end of the year in the event inflation cools and the Fed cuts rates even further. Fed’s ability to influence the economy is currently restrained due to the growing economy and inflation fears stemming from tariffs, which also command a stronger 10-year Treasury yield.

Impact of Tariffs:

Trump’s 10% blanket import tariffs have raised prices, fueling inflation and retaining a high mortgage rate. On the other hand, tariffs that are intended to curb economic growth will lower treasury yields, effectively lowering mortgage rates. The overall net impact remains uncertain but suggests leaning towards enduring high mortgage rates.

Demand:

Staggering prices and high rates took a toll on demand for existing homes, bringing sales down to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.26 million in February 2025. This is an increase of 4.2% for siblings month-over-month but remains stagnant at 30-year lows.

First-time buyers face an affordability limitation: 75% of households cannot afford a newly constructed median-priced home.

Key Driver:

The main contributing factor is the “lock-in effect,” where homeowners wanting to hold onto their low-rate mortgages do not list their homes for sale, coupled with low housing inventory. This leads to prices remaining high while mortgage rates further worsen affordability. Volatility in construction prices due to increases from inflation caused by Trump’s tariffs also negatively impacts the market.

Analyzing 2025 Predictions for First-Time Buyers

Mapping out a first-time purchase in 2025 is tricky. However, the underlying conditions are far from bleak. Here’s a breakdown:

The Struggles:

Stressful Levels of Affordability:

Homes are projected to sell at an all-time high with a median listing of 418k and a fixed 6.86 mortgage rate. Monthly payments are bound to be steep, totaling more than 2,400 for a 400k home. At a 7% interest rate, the balance due each month would be ~$1,200 more per month compared to a 2% rate.

Inventory Competition:

Though the inventory available remains scarce, bidding wars have cooled down since the pandemic ended, which is an upside. As a result, many markets are still competitive, unlike the influx of inventory witnessed during the pandemic.

Policy Control Gaps:

Restricted immigration policies combined with proposed tariffs could raise the cost of building and decrease the number of construction workers, significantly impacting supply and affordability.

Possible Benefits:

Rising Construction Inventory:

Newly constructed homes are being targeted towards first-time homebuyers, improving inventory overall. This is especially true for the Sun Belt regions, which are in more demand. There is now a four-month supply compared to last year.

Reduced Growth in Pricing:

The increase in pricing is estimated to stagnate even further compared to previous years, which is likely to lower the risk of purchasing a home. A 2 – 3 % growth is expected.

Increased Wage Growth:

In the context of purchasing power, it is beneficial as home price growth is offset by growth in nominal wages. Thus making housing slightly more affordable.

Look Outside of Big Cities:

Zillow’s 2025 hottest list states that markets like Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are less competitive and more affordable.

Tips For First-Time Buyers:

Financial Health:

Make sure you have no debt, save a 5-20% down payment (20% avoids PMI), and can pay the closing costs. You can get better rates if your credit score is above 620, especially around 700+.

Stop Trying to Time the Market:

If you’re looking to buy for the long term (5-10 years), waiting for lower prices or rates may not be worth it since real estate tends to appreciate over time. As David Sidoni puts it, “economic noise” shouldn’t keep equipped buyers on the sidelines, especially with persistent supply-demand imbalances. Prices do not just crash.

Don’t Go It Alone:

A real estate agent could also provide insight into local trends and help find “less competitive” markets.

Check For Aid Programs:

Search Business Insider and similar outlets for down payment assistance or affordable mortgage programs.

It is not ideal considering the current economic context. However, concurrently targeting affordable markets, planning to stay long-term, and being financially prepared does make it a good time. A crash seems unlikely, as prices remain high amidst low supply, tighter lending conditions, and stricter standards compared to 2008.

Are home prices tanking and mortgage rates surging?

Home Prices: N/A

While prices have risen by 4% year-over-year, growth is expected to slow down to approximately 2-3% in the coming years, lasting until 2029. A low supply coupled with steady consumer demand prevents prices from declining. However, modest price reductions are likely during a recession.

Mortgage Rates:

Not increasing. Current rates remain high, with a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.86%. However, if inflation alleviates, predictions show rates stabilizing or improving to between 6.2% and 6.7% by the end of the year. While tariff-induced inflation might keep rates high, a recession could provide relief.

There is no forecast for a price jump or drop. Overall, the market is sluggish but stable, and there is no expectation for improvement in affordability any time soon.

Inflation and the Economy: Still Rising, in Disarray?

Inflation (May 2025)

Current Rate:

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March 2025, down from 2.8% in February. Core inflation (without food and energy) sits at 2.8%, above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Trump’s Policies:

Tariffs (10% on all imports, higher for Canada/Mexico/China) will likely increase inflation by 0.6 percentage points in the short run, possibly bringing CPI to 3% or more. Deportation policies would increase the construction labor shortage, elevating construction costs.

Outlook:

Inflation appears to be easing but remains sticky. The Fed is projected to cut rates twice in 2025, which may keep borrowing costs high.

US Economy (May 2025)

Performance:

The economy is not in shambles but rather in resilient shape. Q3 2024 GDP growth was 3.1%, alongside consumer spending and exports. Slower growth for 2025 is observed at 1.5%- 2%, alongside a cooling labor market. Unemployment is projected at 4.1%, slightly increased.

Concerns:

Implementing trade tariffs may slow growth and worsen inflation, triggering a recession. Strain from deportation policies on the agriculture and construction sectors may hurt those industries more. These changes impact workforce sustainability.

Job Market Update:

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 in February 2025, lower than expected, which indicates that demand is cooling.

Yet, no extensive breakdown can be observed.

Summary:

The economy is expanding, although there are looming risks associated with tariffs. Inflation is above target but not out of control, and a recession remains possible, but not definite, as the economy demonstrates resilience.

What Is Trump Doing Now? Stock Market Comments And The Surge.

The Reason Behind Trump’s Statement made on May 8, 2025:

As reported, Trump encouraged Americans to purchase stocks (this was either a post on Truth Social or a public statement; the exact articulation is unavailable) on May 8, 2025. This came after his February 12, 2025, post stating tariffs will allow for lower interest rates.

After a tumultuous week in which the market had over a 2,000-point drop due to fears surrounding tariffs, on May 12, 2025, the Dow Jones saw a surge of over 1,100 points. Shortly after a week of volatility, including a 2,000-point drop due to tariff concerns.

Why Did Trump Make The Statement?:

Boosting Confidence

A pillar of Trump’s economic strategy includes projecting power and encouraging stock purchasing. This counters recession fears and negative sentiment from the market dip due to tariffs. His “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% on all imports) spooked market constituents, resulting in a 6% dip in the S&P 500 in the first week of April. He hopes to fuel consumer confidence and drive investment by promoting stock purchases, which are vital to keeping the economy chugging.

Policy Narrative:

His primary narrative is that tariffs will lead to lower interest rates, claiming they will pay for tax cut spending and inject stimulants into the economy. The May 8 statement was meant to affirm this fueled growth narrative by framing tariffs as growth-friendly policies.

Political Optics:

AI detection tools indicate “Political Optics” corresponds with the first sentence. Noted that “in 2024 housing affordability emerges as a pivotal voter priority,” Trump attempts to assure citizens that his regulations of doling out tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulations will result in some level of prosperity for the country down the line.”

What Caused The Market Surge On May 12?

Rebound Effect:

The 1,100-point Dow surge reflects bargain-hunting and recovery from the fall due to tariffs. After the Dow suffers from a tariff-induced selloff, it is not rare to see markets recover due to investor risk reevaluation. The surge also displays hope that the feared impact of tariffs will not come to fruition, which was the case with Canada’s lumber not receiving an additional 10% tariff increase.

Trump’s Influence:

Trump moving the market with his bullish discourse is not uncommon; the same reasoning was applied for the past “Trump bumps.” His comments are normally perceived as policy changes or Fed rate pressure to relax rates.

Economic Data:

Consumer spending remained steady, and a strong Q3 2024 GDP of 3.1% helped bolster Confidence even amidst tariff concerns.

Is 43,000 an Overvalued Market?

43,000 does seem excessive for the Dow to rest on, but your skepticism is justified. Take the Shiller P/E ratio for example, sitting at 35, where the historical average is 17, suggests stocks are overvalued. That said, though: Earnings Growth:

With bottom line option numbers for the S&P 500 rising 7% in 2024, Nvidia and Apple, which are also seeing an increase in their stock prices, benefit the index’s growth.

Low Rates Historically:

Post-2008, near-zero interest rates boosted asset prices. Currently, 6% and 7% rates stand well below the 1980s peak, which helps maintain high valuations.

Sentiment:

Trump’s business-friendly policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, increase optimism and push markets higher irrespective of fundamentals.

Counterpoint:

While high valuations may not indicate an impending collapse, volatility does exist. In April, 3,000-point swings were witnessed. However, no distinct bubble can be tracked.

What’s Trump Trying to Do?

Trump’s policies attempt to showcase fiscal strength and reserve consumer confidence while stimulating voter confidence. He trims spending via tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs labeled as revenue streams. His stock market cheering is intended to offset tariff fears and promote consumer spending and Confidence. Critics claim the tariffs risk inflation and recession, undermining Trump’s narrative.

Layoffs and Bankruptcies: The Coming Storm?

Layoffs:

Current Data:

Nonfarm payrolls in February 2025 were 151,000, stagnating and lower than expected, unemployment holding steady at 4.1%. Federal government layoffs linked to Trump’s restructuring cuts around HUD staffing up to 50% also happened in early 2025.

Tariff Impact:

Trade wars could soften employment in highly impacted regions like manufacturing and agriculture due to higher cost structures, reducing international sales. No mass layoffs have been confirmed, but a recession would increase the chances.

Outlook:

The labor market shows signs of cooling but remains stable. If tariffs trigger an economic slowdown, layoffs will increase. However, the sharp rise in spending and GDP growth mitigates the risk.

Bankruptcies:

Current trends:

No surge in bankruptcies is recorded.

In 2024, defaults from corporations emerged from small retailers and cap-sized firms. Meanwhile, larger firms continued to thrive due to healthy earnings and significant cash reserves.

Risks:

Stricter tariffs could harm smaller capital firms that rely on overseas imports due to increased costs and narrow profit margins. While a recession would primarily affect over-leveraged corporations, corporate America’s post-2008 recession has seen stricter regulations that strengthened balance sheets.

Outlook:

There’s a possibility of an economic standstill, but rising bankruptcies due to stagnation in economic growth aren’t likely. Moreover, there is no evidence of a repeat crisis similar to 2008. Most firms are coping, even though high interest rates (with Fed funds at 4.25-4.5%) are weighing down weaker firms.

Verdict:

While the outlook remains doom and gloom with the rise in layoffs and bankruptcies, the immediate crisis still rests on the sidelines. The US economy can still weather a storm (3.1% GDP growth, low unemployment).

Critical Perspective

The baseline narrative optimistic estimates of GDP, stable markets, and the absence of a recession also miss many risks. Tariffs may impede supply chains more than foreseen, construction worker deportation policies may spike housing costs by crippling construction labor, and stock prices reveal only a fraction of economic health. If they fail, trump stock-buying call may jeopardize trust in public bailouts, and only buy for petty political reasons. First-time buyers will not face a 2008-style market crash due to tighter lending standards, but should be prudent not to overpay for supply-constrained homes.

Summary

Housing/Mortgage Markets:

Prices are not crashing but modestly increasing by four percent. The rate remains relatively stagnant at a high 6.86%, not surging. Affordability is difficult due to low inventory and tariffs.

First-Time Buyers:

Don’t wait for a non-existent crash because no crash is on the horizon. If financially prepared, it is manageable to buy while targeting affordable regions and a long-term plan.

Inflation/Economy:

Inflation sits at 2.4%, which is cooling, but still poses risks from tariffs. While not in shambles, the economy is growing at 3.1% GDP, but comes with looming recession risks.

Trump’s Stock Call:

He is lifting Confidence to offset fears of tariffs and maintain his image as a pro-growth President. The surge on May 12 of 1,100 points reflects his influence and dynamic rebound effects. However, 43,000 seems frothy to me, only sentiment and tech-driven. Layoffs/Bankruptcies:

Growth slows due to tariffs, but there has been no widespread calamity. The workforce and businesses are managing.

Your Next Steps:

Users: If you want to spend, get pre-approved, and search for homes within your budget range.