GCA Forums Report: National Headline News in Brief Thursday, March 20, 2025

We welcome you to the GCA Forums News detailed recap for Thursday, March 20, 2025. On today’s national headline news, we have meticulously covered specific portions such as the real estate and housing markets, consumer mortgage and interest rates, economy, unemployment rates, the Federal Reserve Board, Consumer Price Index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP), housing demand and supply ratios, the Dow Jones index, precious metals and other markets, and advancements in the business, commercial, and residential mortgage domains concentrating on mortgage banking and loan offerings.

Real Estate and Housing Updates

The struggle for affordability continues to be a problem within the balance of the economy. The housing market is still the focus. According to NAR, sales data is expected today, citing a 3.5 percent increase in housing inventory in January, hinting that the market is slowly thawing out. Unfortunately, the market is still lagging in demand due to the high costs of homes and mortgage rates, which are maintaining the imbalance of supply and demand. Cheaper financing could stir some activity in the market. However, the financing could also postpone the buyers, which puts the market in limbo.

Mortgage Rates and Interest Rates Affect Each Other

According to Bankrate, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 6.76% over the past week, a minor increase from previous levels but still beneath the psychologically crucial 7% barrier. Simultaneously, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, as noted by Yahoo Finance, also dipped, offering respite to borrowers willing to take on shorter terms at 5.99%. These rate changes are a direct response to the recent actions by the Federal Reserve, which has caused experts in mortgage lending to predict a range of 6.5% to 7% for the foreseeable future, barring substantial changes in the economy. As a result of the Federal Reserve’s actions, interest rates, which are linked to the 10-year Treasury yield, have decreased since February as investors move to safer investments due to volatility in the stock market, thus aiding in modestly increasing the affordability of mortgages.

Economy and Unemployment

As worries of recession loom, the U.S. economy faces dual challenges. The Federal Reserve lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, down from 2.1%, due to anticipated tariff impacts and a slowdown in consumer spending. Unemployment also ticked up, with increased joblessness referenced in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, although still describing the labor market as “low-firing, low-hiring.” According to the Daily Mail, inflation worries remain due to Trump’s tariffs, with long-term consumer inflation expectations reaching a peak not seen since the 1990s. This has created a split among analysts trying to ascertain whether the economy needs a stimulus or needs to be restrained, leading to lower business and consumer spending.

Federal Reserve Board

The Fed has decided to maintain its key interest rate after its March 19 meeting at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the second pause in rate increases in 2025 after three cuts in 2024. Powell described the “wait-and-see” approach, balancing stubborn inflation—expected to exceed the previous 2.5% estimate—against decelerating growth. Two rate cuts are still anticipated later in 2025, although Powell was clear that other options are on the table. If inflation remains high and does not ease toward the 2% target, then rates could stay high. The Fed also reduced the pace of its quantitative tightening, gradually reducing its $6.4 trillion bond portfolio, including crucial mortgage-backed securities for the housing market.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Debate over CPI continues due to sustained inflationary pressures due to tariffs and supply chain issues. The inflation outlook raised by the Fed also draws attention, with Powell citing tariffs as a “driving factor” behind rising prices. The GDP growth projection has also been re-down to 1.7% for 2025, reflecting caution from trade policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending. These metrics reveal the intricate balance between economic price stability and expansion, potentially impacting mortgage needs and loans as financial institutions adjust lending terms.

Housing Inventory vs. Demand

The housing market continues to experience an imbalance in supply and demand, with Freddie Mac estimating a shortage of 3.7 million units. Inventory has increased slightly, which will be good for buyers, but demand is still low because elevated prices and mortgage rates are keeping new buyers away. Experts such as Lawrence Yun from NAR have argued that falling rates could increase sales even during a recession. Still, Zillow’s Skylar Olsen cautions that economic slowdowns could lead to heightened risk aversion among borrowers and lenders, further stalling transactions. This imbalance is continuously challenging the growth of the residential mortgage industry.

Dow Jones, Precious Metals, and Other Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average received a boost of over 400 points after the Fed announcement, recuperating hopes of potential future rate cuts. Still, other concerns surrounding tariffs have dampened broader market optimism as investors shifted to look for safety; precious metals, especially gold, appreciated as prices increased during economic uncertainty. Other markets, including bonds, which are expected to lower mortgage rates, improved while stocks had a mixed response along with bonds, a scenario documented by Mortgage News Daily. Commercial real estate markets remain more subdued, reflecting wider business confidence.

Business, Commercial, and Residential Mortgages

In particular niches, such as healthcare construction, investment, and construction activity, have been stalled due to the impact of tariffs and unclear regulations. The secondary mortgage market suffers from reduced demand, and so does the residential segment, even with rate cuts. Intense competition among lenders continues, with many offering multiple programs. For instance, FHA loans are offered to new buyers at 5.92% (currently offered at a slightly lower rate). These loans come with a 3.5% down payment and a 580 credit score. Conventional loans require a 3 to 20 percent down payment. VA and USDA loans with zero down payment remain available to qualified applicants. However, refinancing plunged this week, dropping 13 percent as the rate increased to 6.72 percent, according to CNBC.

Mortgage Lending and Loan Programs

Mortgage lending involves various steps, including pre-approval, interest rate refinancing, rate locks, and APR comparison, which is driven by competition among lenders.

Loan Programs:

• These include FHA, VA, USDA, and other conventional loans, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), loans for first-time buyers, and down payment aid programs.

Other Noteworthy Details

Looking ahead to March 20, 2025, the snapshot of the U.S. shows the economy is stagnating with both mortgage rates and a recovering but cautious Fed at its limits. Growth is unpredictable at best. As inventory rises, the housing and real estate markets remain contended with affordability challenges, leading to half-optimistic and half-pessimistic market sentiment. Our GCA Forums followers would benefit from remaining attentive to current lending constituents and loan programs for mortgage purchasing. Don’t forget to check back with us tomorrow!