GCA Forums News – National Business & Economic Roundup for Friday, April 18, 2025

Real Estate & Housing Market

Housing Affordability & Cost of Living

• The cost of borrowing has risen due to inflation concerns and volatility, now averaging 7.1%.
• The increased cost of mortgages means house-buying difficulty.
• People buy fewer homes these days due to their limited availability.
• The stagnant supply of homes and the’ constantly low selling rate of current homeowners mean they will likely not go up anytime soon.

Housing Demand vs Supply

The reluctance of existing homeowners to sell harms neutral home price growth. The slowing inventory rate, skyrocketing purchase demand, and constantly decreasing purchasing power raise house prices.

Mortgage Market & Interest Rates

Federal Reserve’s Stance

Jerome Powell made the statement regarding the rate change evaluation that needed to be made on federal funds during the mid-payment period, around a 4.25%-4.5 % pause, with ease. No planned alteration made by them would elevate the economic temperature.

• The rise in movement could lead to worsened inflation and a worsening cost-of-living crisis.
• The rate-lowering movement suffers from potential growth and is deemed short-lived.
• Inflation is being suppressed through tariffs, making their use for driving economic activity questionable.

Political Pressure on the Fed

President Trump’s Open Criticism

Thinking back on the past few months, it’s hard to forget Trump savaging Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that “termination can’t come fast enough.” Legal scholars pointed out that the president does not have the power to remove the Fed Chair without cause, which protects the bank’s autonomy.

Economy & Inflation

GDP & Recession Risks

Economists have revised the 2025 GDP growth anticipation to 1.4% at a radically different pace due to recently imposed tariffs and trade disputes. Moreover, the possibility of a recession in the upcoming year has increased to 45%, indicating increased economic turbulence.

Inflation Concerns

Inflation expectations have increased due to recently imposed tariffs. The Consumer Price Index is expected to sit above the Federal Reserve’s 2% deflation benchmark until at least 207. This hindering inflation strangles the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates to foster growth.

Financial Markets Overview

Stock Market Performance

• US stock markets have not been spared from volatility, as traders have been worried about government economic policies and international trade skirmishes.
• The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have been swinging up and down amidst this uncertainty.

Treasury Yields & Precious Metals

Summary of Economic Statement

Economic Indicators

Gold’s value jumps up dramatically as people invest in it. This happens because of inflation and because gold is used as a form of security, which enables people to become wealthier.

Automotive Industry Insight

Market Trend

The automotive industry faces new challenges due to increased vehicle tariffs, negatively impacting production costs.

As a result, inflation is hurting the price of vehicles, which is negatively affecting the demand from customers who want to buy a motorbike or an SUV.

Fleet Sale

Fleet sales in the automobile industry are performing better than rental stations, which have stopped buying vehicles. At the same time, the government and commercial food stores are shutting down due to strict budgeting.

Policy & Governance

Disregarding Sanctuary Cities Policies

• The Justice Department has filed lawsuits against the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago due to their limitations in working with immigration enforcement policies.
• The lawsuits from Mayor Brandon hit hard and highlighted violations of federal immigration policy and interference with enforcement.

Policy Making Diversity, Equitable Inclusion

• Diversity, equity, and inclusion policies for businesses are unused.
• There is much speculation as to why former President Donald Trump is rapidly erasing those and underlining himself, which forces other systems.
• Those actions are viewed critically, as they deepen the void of efforts promoting disproportional representation of different systems of inequality in addressing or joining them.

Business Funding & Lending

Commercial Lending

• Commercial lending continues to tighten as financial institutions become more cautious due to economic risks.
• Businesses face stricter credit policies that impede expansion and investment volumes.

Residential Mortgage Lending

• The residential mortgage sector has slowed as fewer people apply due to high interest rates.
• Licensed professionals report low work volumes, while non-licensed personnel are under heightened rules and supervision.
• The US economy is currently dealing with the aftermath of recently implemented policies such as high mortgage rates, inflation, and strained trade relations.
• The housing market is limited because of low inventory and affordability, while financial markets are strained by investor anxiety, alongside the auto industry grappling with higher production costs.

Legal actions against sanctuary cities highlight the ongoing political schism, while changes to DEI policies continue to reignite the debate.

We are undergoing a period of rapid change and economic uncertainty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xQYuUmcGUQ