GCA Forums News For Friday March 13 2026

U.S. markets are ending the week amid heightened uncertainty. Equity prices are under pressure, silver has exhibited significant volatility following a sharp rise and subsequent decline, and although housing and mortgage sentiment remain cautiously optimistic, elevated interest rates and affordability continue to pose substantial challenges.

Live Markets: Stocks, Rates, Economy

U.S. stock futures showed modest gains on Friday morning ahead of new inflation data; however, all three major indices are projected to close the week lower. Investors are contending with elevated energy prices and the risks posed by ongoing geopolitical conflicts. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by approximately 1.5%, the S&P 500 decreased by a similar margin, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by about 1.8%, as oil prices approaching $100 per barrel renewed concerns regarding inflation and interest rates.

UPDATED Consumer Price Index

The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that consumer prices increased by approximately 2.4% year over year in February. This figure suggests that inflation remains steady, although the Federal Reserve’s objectives have not yet been fully achieved. Economists note that, while inflation has moderated since the pandemic, the ongoing conflict in Iran and rising oil prices may contribute to renewed upward pressure on prices later in the year.

February CPI Data

February’s CPI data reveal mixed trends: while prices for certain groceries and goods are declining, costs for services and shelter remain elevated. These dynamics require continued vigilance from the Federal Reserve and prompt rapid market responses to new economic data. The economy continues to expand, and the labor market remains relatively robust, though investors are closely monitoring the potential for unemployment to rise as borrowing and energy costs remain high.

Live Interest Rates and Mortgage Market

Financial markets currently anticipate fewer and later interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve than they did earlier in the year. This shift is primarily attributed to sustained economic growth and concerns that the conflict in Iran may elevate energy prices. Short-term Treasury yields reflect this uncertainty, with expectations fluctuating daily in response to new economic data and Federal Reserve communications.

15 and 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages

The average 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rate in the United States is currently slightly above 6%, at approximately 6.08%. This represents a modest increase from several days prior and is about 10 basis points higher than the previous week. Fifteen-year fixed conforming loans average around 5.46%, while FHA, VA, USDA, and jumbo loans generally fall within the high-5% to low-6% range. These elevated rates continue to present significant challenges to home affordability for many prospective buyers.

2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast

Several rate-tracking sources indicate that mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6% earlier this year before rising again amid renewed inflation concerns. This underscores the high sensitivity of housing demand to even minor fluctuations in interest rates. Market forecasters continue to anticipate a gradual decline in mortgage rates later in 2026, contingent upon controlled inflation and the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce rates without inciting additional price increases. However, this outlook remains uncertain given prevailing global risks.

Housing Outlook and “Live” Mortgage/Housing News

Recent housing data and industry forecasts suggest that the market is gradually shifting in favor of buyers, as housing inventory increases and prices decline from previous peaks. Nevertheless, market conditions continue to vary significantly by region. According to Realtor.com’s latest report, the market is becoming increasingly “ripe for buyers,” with more listings and less bidding competition as the spring season approaches.

Housing Market Outlook

A major brokerage’s 2026 housing outlook predicts national home prices will rise about 0.5% this year, while incomes are expected to grow faster than prices, slowly making homes more affordable. The same outlook sees a “new housing market era” in 2026, with home sales picking up after two slow years as mortgage rates drop a bit and both buyers and sellers adjust to a more normal, post-pandemic market.

Mortgage Market Outlook

For the mortgage industry, this translates into a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026. Purchase volumes should rise from the lows of 2023 and 2024, but growth will likely be steady rather than rapid because of high rate sensitivity and strict lending standards. Lenders who focus on purchase loans, niche products, and educational marketing are best positioned to benefit as demand slowly returns, even though refinancing will remain a smaller part of the market compared to the years of very low rates.

Gold, Silver, Precious Metals

This morning, live silver prices are in the mid-$80s per ounce, around $84 depending on the source, after another sharp drop of a few dollars in the last 24 hours. One major outlet listed silver at about $83.97 per ounce at 8:15 a.m. Eastern, down about $3.36 from the day before, but still over $50 higher than a year ago. This highlights how dramatic the price swings over the past year have been.

Sites peg the live spot price at approximately $84.48 per troy ounce today, equivalent to about $2.72 per gram and $2,716 per kilogram, highlighting that even after the crash, silver remains dramatically above its pre‑rally levels.

Commitment of Traders‑style analysis shows elevated speculative long interest earlier in the rally and significant producer and swap‑dealer net short positioning, a structure that often amplifies volatility during rapid reversals. Recent analysis of COMEX positions indicates that producers held net short positions of nearly 29,000 contracts, while swap dealers were net short over 43,000 contracts at a peak during the rally. Concurrently, hedge funds maintained substantial net long positions. This configuration can precipitate sharp sell-offs when prices decline.

Price Volatility of Silver

A prominent report from early February detailed a historic silver price decline of approximately 32% within a single trading session, marking the largest intraday drop since 1980 and erasing an estimated $2.5 trillion in notional value. The report specifically highlighted JPMorgan’s role in issuing silver contracts during this period of market turmoil. Additionally, it noted that physical silver in Shanghai traded at a premium to U.S. futures during the collapse, implying that substantial selling in paper markets, rather than abrupt changes in physical supply, was a primary driver of the price decline.

Some critics contend that large banks acting as swap dealers may constrain rallies and trigger waves of selling, whereas others assert that these positions primarily serve as hedges against client transactions and physical holdings, rather than constituting outright market manipulation.

On the claim that silver “hit $122 an ounce and then crashed,” public sources confirm extreme volatility and large price swings, but there is no consistent record of an intraday high of $122. Reported peaks vary by venue and product, so the exact number is hard to confirm. What is clear is that, after a rapid surge, silver’s subsequent drop was exacerbated by forced selling from leveraged buyers, large short positions on COMEX, and a gap between futures and physical prices. These conditions have led some to suspect that major banks and swap dealers may have helped cause or speed up the decline.

Are Big Banks Manipulating Prices of Silver?

Allegations that JPMorgan and other major banks are manipulating silver prices have reemerged, partly due to JPMorgan’s previous payment of approximately $920 million in fines for past spoofing and manipulation in precious metals and Treasury markets, as well as its significant involvement during the 2026 crash. However, current news reports characterize the situation as a combination of aggressive paper selling, extensive hedging, and market imbalances. Regulatory authorities have not confirmed any new enforcement actions related to this year’s decline in silver prices.

Jerome Powell, Fed Politics, and Precious Metals

The Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding his congressional testimony on cost overruns for the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation. In a recorded statement, Powell described the investigation as “unprecedented,” denied any wrongdoing, and asserted that he believes the probe is politically motivated due to his interest rate decisions, which have frequently been criticized by President Donald Trump.

Powell stated that the prospect of criminal charges could compromise the Federal Reserve’s capacity to make decisions based on economic data and conditions rather than political influence.

Jerome Powell’s term as chair concludes in May, and President Trump is anticipated to nominate a successor. However, several senators have indicated they will oppose any nominations until Powell’s legal situation is resolved. Powell has consistently downplayed the significance of gold and silver prices in Federal Reserve policy, emphasizing that the institution prioritizes inflation, employment, and overall financial conditions over commodity prices. Although Powell did not explicitly state that gold “does not matter,” this perspective is consistent with his previous remarks that metals are only one of many market indicators, not a policy objective. Nevertheless, financial markets frequently interpret increases in gold or silver prices as signals of skepticism toward the dollar and monetary policy, which explains why Federal Reserve statements on inflation and balance sheet management can influence precious metals markets, even if officials claim not to focus on them.

National Political and Economic News: States, Cities, Immigration

Sanctuary cities and states remain at the center of a heated national debate, with new proposals in Congress to penalize jurisdictions that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. Policy analysts note that “sanctuary” has no formal definition in immigration law; it generally refers to local rules that restrict law‑enforcement cooperation with ICE, and estimates suggest around 100 cities and 13 states have adopted some form of sanctuary policy.

A recent policy analysis notes that lawmakers have yet to reach consensus on the criteria for designating a sanctuary jurisdiction, complicating efforts to link funding penalties or federal regulations to the term.

This ambiguity contributes to political conflict in states such as California, Illinois, and New York, where local officials must balance fiscal and social service pressures with initiatives aimed at protecting undocumented residents from stringent immigration enforcement. California continues to face budgetary challenges resulting from sluggish tax revenue growth, elevated social service expenditures, and population outflows from high-cost regions. Estimates of the state’s 2026 budget shortfall vary by source and are subject to revision as new revenue projections emerge.

New York and Chicago’s Budget Crisis

In Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson confronts issues related to pension obligations, public safety, and expenses associated with migrant populations. Ongoing debates persist over the city’s cooperation with ICE and the fiscal implications of its sanctuary policies, although comprehensive, current fiscal data from a single authoritative source remains unavailable.

There is no public record indicating that Zohran Mamdani, a progressive state Assembly member from Queens, has assumed the role of mayor or that a new Mayor Mamdani has created a $12 billion deficit within three weeks.

Mainstream news sources continue to identify Eric Adams as the mayor of New York City, despite ongoing budgetary challenges. More generally, numerous large, high-service, Democratic-leaning cities are experiencing post-pandemic budgetary difficulties due to weak commercial real estate markets, reduced tax revenues, and increased expenditures on housing, migrant services, and social programs. This trend is not confined to so-called “red states,” and specific circumstances vary by municipality.

Fraud In Minnesota: Governor and Attorney General In Hot Seat

With respect to fraud in Minnesota and other states, the most recent scandals pertain to pandemic relief, nonprofit, or unemployment benefit fraud, rather than newly emerging cases. Prosecutions and audits related to the misuse of federal funds have persisted into 2025 and 2026, but no major new Minnesota fraud cases are currently making headlines. Public watchdog organizations continue to caution that inadequate oversight during the pandemic has resulted in ongoing investigations and recoveries, which are expected to impact state budgets and political dynamics for years to come.

Jeffrey Epstein–Related Developments and Trump Administration Officials

Mainstream news coverage continues to focus on ongoing controversies surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s death, his network of prominent associates, and the adequacy of previous investigations. However, there are no widely reported new congressional hearings today involving former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, FBI official Kash Patel, or War Department Secretary Pete Hegseth as witnesses regarding Epstein.

Previous reports have criticized certain Trump-aligned individuals, including Bondi and Patel, for disseminating unsubstantiated claims or conspiracy theories related to Epstein and other matters, but this differs from the scenario of a live, formal hearing naming them as principal witnesses.

A 2025 analysis found that Bondi was criticized for promising “shocking” Epstein revelations that did not materialize, while Patel and a deputy were faulted for promoting right-wing conspiracy theories before assuming national security positions. These criticisms contribute to ongoing distrust and speculation, but they do not equate to new sworn testimony in an Epstein-related hearing. Law enforcement agencies and Congress continue to face pressure to disclose additional information about Epstein’s associates and any sealed documents; however, current news coverage indicates that such disclosures are occurring through lawsuits and document releases, rather than major live hearings involving the aforementioned individuals.

How All This Feeds Into Housing and Mortgage Prospects for 2026

As of March 13, 2026, the broader context for mortgage and real estate professionals is characterized by persistent but stable inflation, cautious Federal Reserve policy, ongoing global risks, and a housing market gradually normalizing after years of significant volatility. Silver and other precious metals are serving as a hedge for investors concerned about inflation, geopolitical conflict, and confidence in central banks.

The performance of these metals also illustrates the rapid shifts in market sentiment and the complexity of derivatives-driven markets.

Industry forecasts suggest that 2026 should be much better for loan originations than the recent low years, especially for home purchases. Modest rate drops, slightly higher incomes, and more available homes should lead to more transactions, though the days of 3% refinancing booms are not returning soon. For loan officers, brokers, and lenders, this means 2026 will require careful pipeline management, strong referral networks, and marketing focused on education and creative, compliant solutions to affordability. These will be key to winning business in a market that is improving but remains challenging.

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