GCA Forums News For Saturday, March 14, 2026

This market and news update covers Saturday, March 14, 2026. All details have been checked for accuracy.

Inflation remains a major concern as the war goes on.

Economic Impact From The U.S.-IRAN Conflict

The U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed oil and gas prices higher, increased government bond yields, unsettled the stock market, and created new challenges for the Federal Reserve. Housing and mortgage conditions have improved slightly since 2025, but the recovery remains uncertain. Precious metals prices are moving quickly. The sharp drop in silver appears to be a sudden shift caused by crowded trades, not new evidence of bank manipulation.

Stock Market Outlook:

The U.S. stock market is closed for the weekend. On Friday, SPY closed at 662.29, QQQ at 593.72, DIA at 466.41, and IWM at 246.59. Wall Street finished the week with losses, according to Reuters, as the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%. Concerns about inflation from the Iran conflict led investors to seek safer investments.

Interest Rates And Bonds:

Higher oil prices and increased worries about inflation have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.25%.

Reuters reports that analysts link the continued high yields to the ongoing conflict, even as labor data shows signs of weakness. Some analysts think the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until late 2026.

Fed And Short-Term Rates:

The federal funds target range is still 3.5% to 3.75%. Reuters says the Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. Weak job numbers in February are at odds with rising inflation from the war, making policy decisions more difficult.

Mortgage Rates:

As of March 12, the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.11%, and the 15-year rate is 5.50%, according to Freddie Mac. Although these rates are lower than a year ago, the 30-year rate is back above 6%, showing how mortgage pricing is tied to Treasury yields, oil prices, and current events.

Housing And Mortgage Outlook:

The short-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. In February, existing-home sales rose 1.7% to an annual rate of 4.09 million. The Mortgage Bankers Association also reported a 3.2% increase in mortgage applications, indicating that demand remains strong.

In 2026, the housing and mortgage sector is improving slowly, but a strong recovery is still out of reach. New single-family home construction fell 2.8% in January, permits dropped 0.9%, and investment in housing has declined for four straight quarters.

In February, Core CPI rose 0.2%, payrolls fell by 92,000, and unemployment edged up to 4.4%. January’s 6.946 million job openings did not lead to more hiring. Early March saw consumer sentiment drop to 55.5, as higher gas prices and the ongoing conflict added to economic worries. On the positive side, January’s trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion due to record exports. The U.S. economy is slowing, but it is not collapsing.

Gold, Silver, Precious Metals

On March 11 and 12, silver prices fell to 85.34 and 84.90 after earlier gains. Gold has also dropped from its January highs, with recuers reporting a Friday price of 5,052.15, which is lower than in the previous two weeks. The main reasons are a stronger U.S. dollar, expected interest rate hikes, and higher oil prices due to the conflict. These factors make non-interest-paying metals less appealing, even with ongoing global tensions.

Volatility And The Recent Crash:

Claims that silver “hit $122 a few weeks ago” and then crashed due to clear manipulation are not supported by evidence. Reuters records show silver exceeded $100 on January 23, driven by speculative retail and momentum buying, reaching about $121.64 before a rapid decline. Reuters attributed the early February collapse to an overextended market, a sharp unwind, higher CME margins, and widespread selling. This is the most evidence-based explanation for the crash.

Silver Shorts And Concentration:

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) March 10 report shows that COMEX silver open interest is at 115,458 contracts.

The report shows swap dealers had 48,061 bets that silver prices would fall and 22,637 bets that prices would rise. Producer/merchants had 19,334 bets against silver and 3,181 bets for it. Managed money had 2,975 bets against and 13,264 bets for silver. The top eight traders accounted for 48.5% of all bets against silver and 40.5% of all net bets against it. This means a small group of traders is making most of the bets that silver will drop, which is why people pay close attention to dealer and bank activity. However, CFTC data does not identify individual dealers, including JPMorgan Chase.

Is Silver Being Manipulated By Major Banks?

There is some historical precedent. Reuters reported in 2020 that JPMorgan was charged with market manipulation and paid $920 million to the U.S. government for manipulating precious metals and Treasury markets. Reuters also covered a 2021 lawsuit against JPMorgan for alleged silver price suppression. While it is understandable to suspect large banks, sources reviewed after the 2026 silver crash do not show that JPMorgan Chase or other banks were responsible. The most likely reasons are too much speculation, higher margin requirements, liquidation, and the effects of a stronger dollar and higher interest rates.

The Investigation Into Jerome Powell’s Actions Is Still Ongoing.

Reuters reported that a federal judge blocked subpoenas that would have forced Fed Chair Jerome Powell to testify. The Justice Department’s investigation into Fed renovations is viewed as politically motivated, and no criminal activity has been found. The DOJ plans to appeal. The investigation continues, but Powell recently won a major legal victory.

Did Powell Say That Gold Prices Do Not Matter?

No verified source confirms those exact words. The closest Reuters quote from Powell at the January 28, 2023, press conference is: “We don’t take much message macroeconomically,” meaning the Federal Reserve is not influenced by record-high gold prices. Powell also said he does not get “spun up over particular asset price changes,” though such changes are monitored. This is not the same as saying gold prices “do not matter.

War:

Verified reports indicate that the conflict has escalated beyond a proxy war. Reuters states that the hostilities, which began on February 28, involve a major U.S.-Israeli air assault and have intensified since that time.

As of March 14, Washington is refusing to negotiate a ceasefire, and Iran will not take part unless the strikes end. The conflict now focuses on Iran’s military power, as it tries to control the Straits of Hormuz and respond in the region. Neither side is clearly winning. The U.S.-Israel coalition has more military strength, but Iran still has enough asymmetric power to disrupt oil, shipping, and regional stability.

Impact Of The Iran War On Rates And Markets:

The conflict directly affects the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key route for about one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments. Attacks on Kharg Island and nearby infrastructure increase the risk of supply disruptions. Higher oil prices are pushing up gasoline prices and inflation expectations. Because of this, the Federal Reserve is expected to slow the pace of rate cuts, which should lead to higher Treasury yields. This explains the related movements in stocks, bonds, mortgages, and precious metals.

I have not seen a new Reuters report today about Kash Patel’s March 14 appearance, so I cannot confirm it. Reuters did report that Hegseth is under investigation for a U.S. strike on a girls’ school in Iran, with a general leading the inquiry. Reuters also reports that some Democratic senators are calling for hearings on the Iran war, and that Hegseth will be among those questioned.

Sanctuary Cities

There is real tension around sanctuary cities in Minnesota, Chicago, California, and New York City, though some reports are exaggerated. Reuters says Trump stated he would cut federal funding to “sanctuary cities.” Chicago Mayor Brendan Johnson asked police to investigate what he called illegal actions by immigration agents. Minnesota’s governor has proposed anti-fraud measures, saying federal enforcement is needed due to alleged fraud. Reuters also reports the Minneapolis City Council estimated $203 million in economic damage from increased enforcement.

In New York, Reuters notes Zohran Mamdani is the mayor and has proposed a new tax on high earners, but the reported $12 billion deficit could not be confirmed.

Looking at each city’s actions gives a clearer picture than broad political stories. In the mortgage industry, conditions are better than during the panic of 2024-2025, but caution remains. More people are buying homes, and lower refinancing rates and more existing-home sales in February are positive signs. However, not enough new homes are being built, interest rates are high, and the oil shock from the Iran conflict could slow a full housing recovery. For mortgage professionals, 2026 will likely be unpredictable, with opportunities for profit but also tight margins rather than easy growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeiqDaTYp9M