GCA FORUMS NEWS – National Market & Political Report: Thursday, December 11, 2025FOMC Rally

The FOMC Rally continued today, and it’s earning its holiday name as it enables all the major indexes to experience historical highs on the same day.

The Dow closed out the day with a record high of 48763.5, gaining 543.99 points with a percentage increase of 1.12%.

Following that, the S&P 500 closed with a record high of 6,905.12 with a gain of 14.07 with a percentage increase of only 0.2%.

The Nasdaq Composite lagged behind and closed at 23,515.12, with a 0.05% decrease, marking the only index that did not reach a record high.

The reason for the Nasdaq Composite’s lag is due to the poor performance of the tech giant Oracle (ORCL), which continued its steep post-earnings drop.

Following the descent that Oracle has seen, the entire tech sector has seen similar declines.

Recent FOMC results and reactions are leading the market to experience significant increases in value, which in turn raises levels of investor confidence.

From a borrower’s perspective, the increases seen in the market directly reflect the value of retirement accounts and the overall investor confidence.

Both of these concepts directly correlate to an active and confident consumer market, specifically in the housing sector.

Additionally, positive equity in homes allows homeowners more flexibility, enabling them to sell, buy, or invest in additional properties.

Transitioning Now to Monetary Policy Developments: Rates

At the December Federal Reserve meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by an additional 0.25 percentage points, bringing the target range down to 3.5-3.75% – the third cut for the year 2025. Chair Jerome Powell reiterates that there is “no risk-free path” and warns there are downside risks to the labor market, even as inflation continues to cool.

In the bond market, there are lower yields, for instance;

10 Year Treasury Yield: Pulled down to the low 4 percent range (with a low but flexible rate from 4.1-4.2%).

This directly connects to mortgage pricing.

Based on the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey published on the day.

• 30-year fixed rate mortgage: At 6.22% which is an upward trend from 6.19% of the previous week, but remains conservatively below the YTD average of 6.62% for 2025.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Standing at 5.54%

Freddie Mac affirms that rates are “close to 2025 tops”, and therefore a lower rate supply is presenting itself to those buying and refinancing relative to the previous 7-8% peak rates earlier on.

Addressing Implications for GCA Forums readers:

• Purchase loans: Payment estimates are better compared to previous high points for 2023-2024.
• However, they remain extremely high when considering the previously ultra-low levels available before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Refinancing: Homeowners with hard-money, non-QM, or high-rate loans now have stronger opportunities to transition into DSCR, FHA, VA, or conventional products, especially if they have built equity or improved credit since their last loan.
• Investors: Lower long-term yields help pencil DSCR loans better—cap rate vs. debt costs are tight, but the math looks better than it did with 8%+ loans.

Labor Market: Jobless Claims Jump, But Economists See “Noise.”

Weekly Jobless Claims reported an increase of 44,000 to 236,000, the largest weekly increase in almost 4.5 years.

However, most economists blamed the seasonal adjustment issue and pointed to the four-week average (~217,000) as evidence of the labor market’s continued stability.

Continuing Claims fell by 99,000 to 184,000. Economists describe a “no-fire, no-hire” market, one that cools without collapsing.

For borrowers, this means:

• Job stability and gaps in employment are still being watched closely by lenders.
• Underwriting remains sensitive to income instability for manual underwriters, non-QM borrowers, and those with prior credit events.

Tariffs and the U.S. Economy: $1,200 Hit per Household, Study Says

A study suggests that the recent tariffs on imports will exacerbate the already growing inflation in the U.S. economy, resulting in an additional $1,200 in expenses for every American househA recent report by Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee of Congress finds that import tariffs at the start of Trump’s second term cost the average household about $1,200 from February to November 2025—$159 billion total.llion.

Here are the report’s main findings:

• The highest average U.S. tariff rate increased from 2.4 to about 16.8 percent, the highest U.S. tariff rate since 1945.
• Democrats argue that tariffs act as a tax on families, increasing prices and worsening the cost-of-living crisis.
• The White House points out that tariffs are protective of U.S. jobs and lure trillions in investment to American manufacturing, and correct lopsided trade deals from decades past.
• Economists, including Kimberly Clausing, labelled the tariff package as one of the largest effective tax increases on U.S consumers in a generation, as it is forecasted to cost $1,700 per household on an annualized basis.

The consumers, housing, and tariffs:

• Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, ranging from building materials and appliances to autos and electronics, and also raise the interest rate to 3.0 percent for the year, as of September, according to the CPI inflation.
• Increased input costs make new construction for builders unmotivating, which keeps home prices sticky even when the demand for construction is on the decline.
• For DTI ratio management of GCA Forums-type borrowers, a small increase in basic cost goods, such as cars, groceries, or other materials, could determine whether you are approved or referred/denied.

Housing Market Check: More Inventory, Slightly Softer Prices

Active Listings: Up 12.6% yearly

Median Price: 415,000, a year ago down 0.4%

Price per Sq Ft: 1% year-over-year decrease

Percentage of Listings with Price Cuts: 18% up 1.3% from the previous year

Some areas of the country, such as Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Louisville, are considered refuge markets. These are the areas where buyers choose to purchase a home because they are cheap and the price per square foot is increasing.

For homebuyers and investors: Days on market are brief in top cities.

This means that buyers have more options compared to previous years, 2021-2022, and consequently, they have more negotiating power.

Refuge markets have rising rents, with a rate of 6-7%.

This means that investors using DCSR loans will benefit, and the interest rate will compare favorably to others, such as 15-20%.

For homebuyers looking to purchase a larger home, there are more realistic contingent offers.

Precious Metals: Gold Near Records, Silver Goes Parabolic

It really does look like we are passing a stressful test for the gold market.

• Gold’s current market price is about $4,233.75 an ounce, up a fraction from the previous day’s price.
• Silver, at $62.46 per ounce, has also reached a record.
• Silver has more than doubled in value this year, reflecting a significant global shortage.
• USA Gold’s daily report attributes the price rise to an increase in interrelated industrial demand for solar energy, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics.
• Supply from the silver mines is now 20% insufficient, and physical silver is scarce at any price.

And for those watching mortgages and residential real estate:

• Gold and silver prices serve as indicators of hedging against currency and inflation risk, as well as major policy looseness.
• Nervous equity investors tend to invest in real assets.
• When financing is viewed as very expensive, as it is currently relative to the 2010s, more is expected to be allocated to real estate and precious metals.
• Both are long-term store-of-value.
• Switching gears to political media coverage?

You inquired specifically about the extramarital relationship allegations around VP JD Vance and Erika Kirk (wife of the recently deceased Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk), and if Vance is the alleged father of her child.

Here is what we have so far in terms of responsible reporting and fact-finding:

• Internet speculation and rumors suggested a relationship of infidelity between Vance and Erika Kirk, based on campaign event pictures of them together.
• Vance and Erika Kirk have had no relationship in the fact-checkers’ justice; the other reports summarized to describe a Snopes review.
• Rumors have no basis other than out-of-context videos and a conspiratorial presence on social media… There were no documents or even corroborating testimony.
• He was a guest in an interview where Vance spoke about the speculation and was even quoted in NBC News, stating,
• “There is a great misconception that the insecurities presented in some of the rumors and speculations are of great concern to all, and they should be carefully evaluated and disposed of.”

That suggests:

• There are NO espousing allegations or even legitimate papers that purport to an affair or illicit fatherhood in the public domain.
• A thorough speculative analysis currently exists, primarily in the cyberspace of conjectures and partisan opinion reporting.
• Considering our safety and accuracy policies, as well as the current situation, we believe the allegations of infidelity are false and have been thoroughly checked and disproven by the involved fact-checkers.

Owen’s Criticism – ERIKA KIRK

Infighting on the right is, and has been, very real, and the feud between Owens and Erika Kirk is now a public matter.

Kash Patel, Dan Bongino & the FBI Controversy: Facts, Speculations, and Uncertainties

You have also expressed interest in Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, the FBI, the use of the FBI jet, the SWAT, and whether they are “on their way out”. Here is what the journalism world has to offer:

The Patel $60 Million FBI Jet

• Patel is accused of using the FBI’s approximately $60 million Gulfstream jet to travel to multiple destinations during the performance of his country-singer partner Alexis Wilkins.
• Several former FBI employees alleged that Patel crossed the line, and the FBI is now investigating this case.
• The same sources claim that Patel supposedly deployed elite tactical teams from the FBI, including Wilkins and her entourage, which raises questions about what other duties should have been the priorities.
• One story recounts how Patel became angry when the staff didn’t have an FBI-branded jacket prepared for him in Utah, with aides characterizing the incident as revealing Patel’s enormous ego and insecurity.
• The FBI has refused to comment on specific protective measures, and Patel has denied any wrongdoing, arguing that his travel and security arrangements were entirely reasonable and mission-oriented.

Dan Bongino’s Leadership and Criticism from the Rank and File

In a different but widely publicized story, a stream of reports collated in People and the Daily Beast all describe the same as a highly critical portrait of the FBI’s leadership in Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino, as follows:

• The report discusses an FBI that some of its agents describe as “rudderless” and “politicized.”
• Several current and former agents cited in the report claim that Patel is “in over his head” and that Bongino is inexperienced to lead a large federal law enforcement agency.
• One former counterterrorism agent, whose words were recorded in the report, straightforwardly describes Bongino as “a clown” due to his hyper-partisan media narrative, his troubled past, and his tendency to exaggerate overly headline-seeking cases.

Patel and Bongino have not been publicly announced as having been fired or pushed out. However, there is:

• Not an internal culture report, this is negative.
• plus many pending congressional inquiries on jet usage and resource dissemination,
• Plus many more available.
• Many analysts are wondering how long they can remain in their positions without performing their jobs correctly or introducing new leaders.

Are They on “Bad Terms” with Trump?

Public reporting does not have a simple yes or no answer to this:

• Some reports frame Patel and Bongino as loyal Trump allies under pressure, especially after controversies like the mishandling of Epstein-related documents and major leaks.
• Trump is angry is a speculative opinion, and the leaks are mostly opinion and gossip, not facts.

So the most accurate summary is:

There is serious controversy and internal dissent around Patel and Bongino’s leadership at the FBI, including specific allegations about misuse of travel and security resources.

Their future is uncertain, but as of today, there is no confirmed decision to remove them from the list.

Big Picture: What Today’s News Means for GCA Forums Members

Putting it all together for borrowers, homeowners, and investors:

• Rates: The Fed’s cuts, along with lower 10-year yields, lead to conventional rates around 6%, while FHA/VA rates are even lower.
• This is much friendlier than the 7-8% peaks; it is especially beneficial for borrowers with past credit events, who rely on manual underwriting, and flexible lenders.
• Tariffs & inflation: On overall inflation, tariffs function as a stealth tax on the economy.
• They inflate the prices of some goods, even as overall inflation remains in the 3% range.
• This reduces the DTI and available savings for the down payment.
• Jobs: The labor market remains solid, although it is losing some momentum.
• Lenders now place more emphasis on stable, consistent income documentation, job permanence, and avoiding major job changes during the application process.
• Housing: Additional listings, combined with slight price reductions and lower interest rates, result in better negotiating power for the buyer; this is especially true in refugee markets with relatively affordable housing.
• Noise vs. Signal in Politics: Personal rumors, such as the JD Vance and Erika Kirk affair, are just that; they are largely unverified gossip.
• On the other hand, underlying the key elements that shape the mortgage market are hard facts, including Federal Reserve policy, tariffs, inflation, employment, and housing inventory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUIqhbm3K70&list=RDNSqUIqhbm3K70&start_radio=1

• This discussion was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.