GCA Forums News For Tuesday November 18 2025:

BREAKING GCA Forums News: NATIONAL REPORTS

What happened on Tuesday, November 18, 2025

GCA Forums News – Housing, Mortgages, The Economy, and Politics LIVE WALL STREET LIVE STOCKS Live Stock Market Data

• Dow, Dow Jones, S%P 500, and Nasdaq .
• Today is another tough day on Wall Street as investors worry that A.I. stocks in the technology sector have gone too far too quickly.
• As of Tuesday, November 18 2023, 3 00 PM E.T.
• All three major indexes have gone down on their second consecutive day and the technology stocks have sold off.
• This is another challenging day on Wall Street, as investors continue to worry that A.I. stocks in the technology sector have advanced too quickly.
• Small>caps (Russell 2000)
• The Russell 2 is down slightly, with the brighter news.
• Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks, updated as of Tuesday, 3 PM ET.
• The Russell 2000 is estimated to be up by more than 0.6% to approximately 2,354, clawing back from its losses on Monday.

Live Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Industrial Average

• Live Update on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite.

More Wide Effect Live Update S&P 500 Composite’s Live Update on Nasdaq Composite

• Live Update 2022 Data S$P 500 Composite Value IS 0.99 S%P 500 Composite Live Rate 0.059.
• 0.99 S%P 500 Composite Live Rate 0.059.

LIVE INTEREST RATES AND MORTGAGES LIVE (10) Interest Rate and Mortgages 2020

Live Updated The Live Updated Federal Value.

• The Federal Value of Money Polices LIVE Updated.
• LIVE Updated The Federal Reserve Polices.
• Federal Reserve Policy Rate Cuts

Still Towards the Restrictive Side

• As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve has made two cuts to the target federal funds rate, which now sits at the 3.75-4% range.
• These cuts consist of two 25-basis-point cuts, made on September 18 and October 29.
• With the Fed now focusing on the labor market and continuing to ignore inflation, there will likely be one more rate cut in December.

LIVE Mortgage Rates: 30-Year Fixed Still in the Low 6%

Slowly, but surely, borrowers are receiving a bit of relief:

• As of mid-November, the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to 6.2-6.3%, down from 7% that was common earlier this year.
• Should inflation continue to decrease, forecasters, including Fannie Mae, predict that mortgage rates will stabilize in the low 5% range by the end of 2026.
• For homeowners looking to refinance and those buying their first home, mortgage rates are still on the more expensive side compared to the standards of years past.
• However, this has improved significantly since the spike in rates from 2023 to 2024.

LIVE ECONOMIC DATA: GDP, CPI INFLATION, AND JOBS

• GDP Growth: Strong Rebound After a Weak First Quarter.
• Real GDP grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the second quarter of 2025.
• This signifies growth after a 0.6% drop in the first Quarter of the Year.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates Q3 2025 growth at approximately 4.1% (as of November 17).

Inflation: CPI Running Around 3% Year-Over-Year

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% in September 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, also slightly higher than the 2.9% increase in August.
• The increase in energy and gasoline is a notable factor.
• The core CPI (excluding food and energy) remains at 3%, which is higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
• Quite a distance, sure, but still a step in the right direction compared to the wild increase early in the Pandemic.
• Of course, the tariffs on goods, such as clothing, that were implemented during the Trump administration still have an impact on pricing today.

Jobs and Unemployment: Softening but Not Collapsing

• The shutdown caused disruptions in the official BLS reports; however, Chicago Fed estimates have shown that the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in October, the highest level in about four years.
• It is also a 4% increase from the September rate of 4.35% and 4.3% in August.
• Approximately 750,000 federal workers were also furloughed due to the shutdown, further complicating the data.

LIVE HOUSING AND MORTGAGE FORECASTS

Existing Home Sales: Picking Up as Rates Ease

The latest September 2025 existing-home sales report showed:

• Sales up 1.5% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.06 million, the fastest pace since February.
• Median existing-home price: $415,200, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, and this is the highest price recorded in September.
• Inventory: Increased to 1.55 million homes, which is approximately 4.6 months of supply—an improvement but still below pre-COVID norms.
• Although buyers have more opportunities with lower mortgage rates, major affordability issues persist despite several years of rapid home price growth.

Housing Outlook: More Sales Ahead if Rates Keep Falling

Fannie Mae forecast in its September 2025 predictions:

• The number of homes sold is projected to increase in 2025 to 4.72 million units.
• This number is set to rise to 5.16 million units in 2026.
• These forecasts result in a $ 500,000 increase in sales compared to today.
• The 30-year mortgage is projected to decrease to 5.9% by the end of 2026, allowing first-time homebuyers to purchase homes.
• This means, for GCA Forums readers, today’s housing market is and should be seen as transitional.
• Rates will decrease over the first 12 to 24 months.

DEALER STRESS, REPOSSESSIONS, AUTO PRICES SOAR

New Car Transaction Prices Average $50,000

The auto market remains punishing for buyers:

• Cox Automotive Inc. reports that for the first time, new-vehicle transaction prices exceeded $50,000, with an average cost of $50,080.
• This represents a 3.6% increase over the same month in the previous year.
• New full-size pickup trucks are priced around $66,000 to $70,000 each, largely due to tariffs, high demand for expensive trucks, and increased input costs.

Near Record Level Repossessions

Repossessions of vehicles are reported at near record levels:

• Over 7.5 million repossession assignments were made in 2025, with a year-end estimate of around 10.5 million repossessions, largely due to the impact of the Great Recession.
• 10.5 million.
• Headlines highlight auto bankruptcies and rising delinquencies, particularly in communities hardest hit by high rates and tariffs.

Under Pressure CarMax and Used-Car Dealers

The used-car sector is flashing red:

• Several major used-car and subprime auto originators have declared bankruptcy, shaking the credit markets.
• CarMax (KMX) did not meet market expectations, incurred a $142 million loss provision, and dismissed longtime Chief Executive Officer Bill Nash. As a result, its market prices dropped by about 50–60% this year, resulting in billions of dollars in lost market value.
• The cross communication for these loans is CARS COST MORE, REPOS MORE, LOANS ARE HARDER.
• This leads to substantial stress placed on all facets of a household’s budget.

JOHNSON’S TAX HIKE CHICAGO FLIGHT RISK

While the City Council still resists Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s recent proposals, Johnson continues to advocate for extreme tax schemes to plug a budget hole.

• Johnson proposed a $600 million tax-head tax on big employers, higher real estate transfer taxes on large commercial deals, and other business-centered taxes.
• Johnson’s plan suffered from attrition due to business groups and some aldermen being fearful of accelerating the exodus of employers and high-income residents to the suburbs and lower-tax states.
• Chicago and Illinois have endured years of net out-migration due to a combination of factors, including crime, school issues, and taxes.
• Outsiders, including Johnson critics, claim that the City and citizens’ new taxes will encourage even more to relocate to states with no taxes.
• There is further debate from the more progressive side that revenue from new taxes will provide better funds for the City to serve its citizens more effectively, enhance public safety, and improve overall services for the City.

Trump’s Proposed 50-Year Mortgage Plan

• 50-Year Mortgage Payment options are being promoted by Trump as a way to improve both housing affordability and refinancing options.

These are the details so far:

• The Executive Office aims to extend the Term of the Mortgage to 50 years, reduce monthly payments, and lower the debt service-to-income ratio for borrowers who are critically stretched.
• Advocates state that Foreclosures would be prevented, and first-time homebuyers would have the opportunity to qualify, as well as refinance options for high-rate loans would be unlocked.
• Opponents argue that this means greater total interest payments, and equity would build much more slowly; the price of homes would also inflate if buyers can afford homes at a higher price.

As for GCA Borrowers:

• Equity growth will be slower, and there will be greater sensitivity to price drops that will occur, with a 50 Year Term.
• Starting any new program involves significant changes to regulations and investor expectations, which are not currently underway.
• There is still no information available on the details, who will qualify, and what investors may want.

Stimulus of $2,000 ‘Tariff Check’ Proposed by Trump

• The Trump administration is attempting to partly offset the increased costs of living by sending $2,000 ‘tariff dividend’ checks.
• President Trump claims that $2,000 checks will be sent in 2026 and that Americans will be able to receive these tariff-funded checks.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other analysts indicate that these checks will be less than $100,000 in income, as that was the limit set for pandemic checks.
• According to the Yale Budget Lab review, the projection is that between $300 billion and $450 billion will be expended on this plan.
• There will be a use of more than one year’s equivalent of the revenue from tariffs.
• The projection also states that the GDP will increase by 0.3 points and that there will be a slight rise in the inflation rate.
• To summarize, no checks have been sent; new checks will require new legislation that is not currently in effect.
• Therefore, it is unlikely that the math does add up.

2025 Government Shutdown

• The 2025 government Shutdown took place from October 1 to November 12.
• This was a record 43-day shutdown that included the 2018–2019 shutdown.
• The combination of funding led to the reopening of the government, which was then combined with the restoration of back pay & job protections for furloughed federal employees.
• Funded no more than most agencies until January 30.
• This will likely lead to more showdowns in 2026.
• Did NOT include an extension of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits.
• Enhanced benefits are a core ask for Democrats. Republicans agreed to let it be released, but only after a vote at some indefinite point in the future.
• According to a CBS poll it would seem that 55% of the populace think Trump and the Republicans won, while 6% of the population think the Democrats won.
• Hence, the reason Democrats lost the shadow in the showdown was that they lost the forefront of the issue to health-care costs.

NEW YORK CITY’S FIRST DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST MAYOR: ZOHRAN MAMDANI

• Live election and numbers results, and what occurred.

Last week, in what will be registered as a milestone in the city’s history in elections:

• Zohran Mamdani, 34, at the time of the most recent elections, a democratic socialist, won the 111th mayoral position in NYC, becoming the first Muslim and South Asian mayor, as well as the youngest to hold the position in New York.
• He further won the general election with over 50% of the votes, as opposed to former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who received about 41.6%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, who received about 7.1%.
• He advocates for rent and more expansive protection for tenants, who are often stressed by the ordinary protections of the law.
• He elevates it to a cordial, protective interaction with the law and its representatives.
• $30 will be the earliest lower range for what one can be paid in the city, as of 2030.
• Universal childcare, subsidized bus services, and public grocery stores.
• Increase taxation on top earners and corporations to finance social programs, while implementing changes to property taxes and providing tax relief to outer-borough homeowners.
• Trump has already implied that he might engage with Mamdani, although he regards him as a political opponent; he appears to be optimistic that they might reach a deal on housing and crime.

What Does Democratic Socialist Mean?

As per popular understanding:

• Democratic socialism is a far-left ideology that aims to achieve a gradual transition to a socially owned and democratically managed economy, while maintaining a multi-tiered democracy and civic freedoms.
• A democratic socialist would advocate substantive trade unions, public and/or cooperative control of vital industries, significant state welfare, and state oversight of the economy.
• It is essential to note that most democratic socialists do not propose eliminating all forms of private property.
• Instead, they propose more social ownership of certain key industries and advocate for more progressive income taxes, without barring families from owning their own homes or small businesses.
• Some right-wing critics are concerned that Mamdani’s agenda may veer towards effective state control of housing and other sectors, or discourage investment and property ownership.
• At the same time, his defenders argue that his plans would significantly reduce the acquisition of housing for profit and instead prioritize public services and affordability.

Turning Point USA, Erika Kirk, Candace Owens, and Mikey McCoy

The conservative youth movement is undergoing significant changes following the assassination of Charlie Kirk on September 10, 2025.

• Erika Kirk’s New Role and JD Vance Controversy.
• Charlie’s widow, Erika Kirk, has become the new CEO of Turning Point USA and has assured everyone that she will not change her husband’s goals of engaging youth on campuses and through other outreach efforts.
• Erika has been the subject of a hug with Vice President JD Vance, which some critics have tried to turn into a scandal.
• In response to these critics, she has stated that her actions are subject to abnormal levels of scrutiny, that her mission is to enhance family and faith activities, and that she aims to achieve the goals of TPUSA.

Candace Owens’ Attacks and Internal Turmoil

• Candace Owens: TPUSA Leadership has been attacked by Candace Owens.
• Both before and after Charlie’s death, she has released private correspondence and has directed criticism towards security arrangements, as well as some of the relationships they have with donors, contributing to some speculation and conspiracies surrounding the organization.

Mikey McCoy’s Emerging Role

• Mikey McCoy (Mike McCoy) used to be Charlie Kirk’s head of staff.
• Mikey McCoy is still connected to TPUSA, as Mikey.
• McCoy is an advocate for the organization and has spoken at events such as Liberty University and Mar-a-Lago, which are Christian-conservative in focus, emphasizing education and national security.
• Mikey has contributed to helping strengthen the organization.
• Erika Kirk has openly lauded Mikey’s efforts to assist her family after Charlie’s murder.
• TPUSA has a significant influence but is undergoing an internal struggle, marked by a change in leadership.
• Also, a threat to their reputation at the same time as Trump’s is on a 2nd term, and the current conservative movement is going through a change in generations.

What Does All This Mean For GUSTAN CHO ASSOCIATES BORROWERS

To the GCA Forums Community, live news as of today comes as follows:

• To mortgage shoppers and current homeowners.
• A 6% interest rate still seems high, although it has improved compared to earlier in the year.
• Volatility may be in the picture, but regarding future Fed cuts and slowing inflation, there’s a chance for an overall lower payment in the future.

To the housing market:

• Inventory is on the rise, prices are still increasing, but are more stable at this point.
• There are projections for increased sales in 2025-2026, especially if interest rates can be lowered to below 6%.

Consumer and Car Sector Stress:

• Everyone is concerned about the ever-rising prices of cars and the increasing number of cars that are being repossessed.
• This affects household budgets and credit reports, and may also impact mortgage qualifications.

Policy Face Cards:

• The 50-Year Mortgage Plan and $2,000 Tariff Checks may become policies that alter the trajectory of the economy, but are currently just propositions.
• For now, consider them potential policies rather than something you can count on today.

Political Changes in Major Metropolises

• The tax subsidies and housing policies being implemented in Chicago and New York City will serve as fundamental guides for landlords, renters, and investors nationwide.

Most Recent Updates From Gustan Cho Associates

Even though there is uncertainty on Wall St. and in Washington, Gustan Cho Associates and its affiliate companies continue to focus on:

No-Overlay FHA, VA, USDA, and Conventional Loans

• Non-QM and alternative-documentation loans for self-employed and credit-challenged borrowers.
• Manual underwriting with lenient guidelines for borrowers that others completely ignore.
• Nationwide coverage in most states, plus same-day pre-approvals in many instances.

If you are concerned about:

• High debt-to-income ratios.
• Recent credit issues or rising car payments.
• Or just trying to manage this fast-paced and politically charged environment.

Gustan Cho Associates team** can be reached at 800-900-8569 or by using contact forms on GustanCho.com and GCAForums.com for individual assistance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE0q1Cjuu-I&list=RDNSuE0q1Cjuu-I&start_radio=1