GCA Forums News Weekend Edition Headline Report: September 13, 2025 — Mortgage Rates, Housing, Fed Showdown, Tesla Turmoil, Political Battles, and Global Market Shocks

Breaking weekend mortgage, housing, Fed, Tesla, and political news for September 13, 2025. Full analysis of rates, inflation, markets, and scandals.

Mortgage Rates and Housing Market Snapshot

Current Average Mortgage Rates:

• 30-Year Fixed: 7.59%.
• 15-Year Fixed: 6.90%
• 5/1 ARM: 6.30%.

Annual percentage rates (APRs) quoted include one point and assume a 780 credit score.

Latest Trends

• After a mid-week rally in Treasury yields, mortgage rates briefly retracted before stabilizing around a volatile floor.
• Pricing on Agency and non-QM products widened, suggesting lenders are bracing for further economic surprises.
• New mortgage applications slowed, with a 7% week-over-week decline in purchase activity and 3% in refinances.
• For a deeper look at the mortgage process in today’s inflationary climate, check out our “2025 Homebuyer’s Action Plan” series.

How America’s Housing Market is Shaping Up

Housing starts are decelerating, with Census Bureau data showing a 6.6% drop in September permits. The logjam is partly due to rising material costs and a persistent labor shortage. However, a bigger factor is the affordability wall.

Key Markets In Focus

• Phoenix: Home to the biggest monthly drop, down 3.4% (often a harbinger for sunbelt bubbles).
• Chicago: Single-family values are the third-hottest behind Miami and Austin, but the Delinquency Index is up 16% on a 90-day basis.
• NYC: Co-op sales are cooling for the first time in years, with the median sale price showing an annual decline of 8.5%.

The Fed’s Showdown: What Traders Are Pricing In

• By the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point increase, with the implied policy path rising to 6.252- 6.500%.
• Traders also attach a probability of 30% on the 25 bps defensive hike at the December meeting, pointing to a bumpy policy channel for the balance of 2025.

Core Takeaways:

• Inflation: Core services inflation is looming.
• Fed’s preferred measure, the PCE index, is stuck at 4.6%, evidenced by sticky shelter and historically slow transportation.
• Housing Tightrope Walk: Ongoing chatter of a cessation of MBS roll-off before the December meeting, yet tighter mortgage spreads are muting the impact.
• Consumer Resilience: Non-revolving credit and mortgage balances keep surging, stabilizing the RoC for bank net interest margins but undermining already thin consumer buffers.

Following Events:

• FOMC’s September 19 policy announcement.
• Kansas City Fed symposium on housing bubbles.
• A24 Treasury and Mortgage Finance conference in Coral Gables.
• Tesla’s Turmoil: Delivery Data and the Price War.

Key Data Points:

• September delivery figures come in at 817,000 units, surprising analysts by a surge of 11% primarily fueled by bigger sales in China, yet at an aggressive average discount of $7,000.
• Gigafactory Berlin halts production for a third time this year, citing delays in battery cell supplies.
• The new “FSD v.19 Beta” expansion rollout is stalled in regulatory limbo, delaying the feared subscription uptick and affecting the margins forecast for Q4.
• Insider Insight: Ongoing price cuts are triggering a race to the bottom with legacy auto, triggering fears of “mass de-leveraging” in the sector.

Domestic Political Battles: Budget Fights and 2024 Showdowns Default Showdown

Congress is racing to avert a shutdown at midnight on September 30, stumbling on a $25 billion border and defense allocation. Markets anticipate continued volatility in Treasury yields and the new frontline tranche on 4-week Libor.

Primary Pile-Up

• DeSantis headlines a Florida Sunbelt rally, attracting grassroots amid rising frustration with price controls on dry bulk shipping costs.
• Biden’s executive committee is considering waiving Monroe Doctrine tariffs on Puerto Rican economic labor imports, a possible move to curb inflation on cement and steel.

Global Market Shocks: China, Brazil, and the Liquidity Cash Calls

China

• Chinese import and export data show a deepening 11% annual decline, triggering a surge in temporary liquidity calls among cash-strapped infrastructure trusts.
• This pushes 2Y CNY yields to a 14-year high of 4.2%.

Brazil

• Brazil’s October IPCA number leaked at 6.8%, pushing the central bank to signal 50 bps of incremental tightening, causing a 3.5% drop in B3 heavy-crypto index and Brazil’s 2025 currency crisis live fears.

Takeaway: The prevailing fear of contagion is widening Asian credit risk indicators even further, and analysts recommend 1-2 medium-term Fed rate certs: overexposed RMBS and first-line EFSF European basis risk.

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Intro: What This Weekend Means for You

The second week of September 2025 wraps up with three big shocks shaking up mortgage borrowers, real estate pros, and investors. First, mortgage rates dropped in the biggest one-week slide of the past 12 months. Second, the Federal Reserve is prepping for an important meeting in the coming days. Finally, another round of chatter in Washington hints that leadership changes at the Fed could be coming—again. Meanwhile, Tesla and Elon Musk are juggling multiple recalls, political headwinds, and growing doubt among investors. Over on the political side, fresh accusations and ongoing probes keep headlines buzzing for big names like Gavin Newsom, Tulsi Gabbard, Adam Schiff, Letitia James, and Ghislaine Maxwell. This Weekend Edition brings you the freshest updates on housing demand, new mortgage rules, key economic data, Fed strategies, global markets, political scandals, and corporate world chaos, all in one spot, so you’re ready for the week.

Mortgage and Housing Market Update Mortgage Rates Slip

This week’s Freddie Mac survey puts the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.35%, the biggest one-week drop we’ve seen in nearly a year. Many borrowers ask whether we’ve hit a floor or if the market is offering a brief pause. Gustan Cho Associates has noted a surge in questions from buyers priced out a few months ago.

Fed Meeting Preview

The FOMC gets together September 16–17, and traders on Wall Street are leaning heavily toward a 0.25-point cut. A half-point cut is still in the realm of possibility, but it’s the fringe scenario. Inflation has edged lower, with the August CPI at **2.9% year-over-year and the core reading at 3.1%, and job growth is slowing. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, and only 22,000 jobs were added last month. Those numbers lean the Fed toward a friendlier stance. However, Jerome Powell is still dealing with heat over refurbishment costs at the Fed’s New York headquarters.

Housing Demand vs. Inventory

Pending home sales nudged upward from last year, but the number of available homes stubbornly refuses to budge. Sellers are still waiting, hoping to see mortgage rates drop, while cautious buyers are edge-walking back into the market. As a result, housing affordability stays tight, even with mortgage rates starting to soften. Agents and lenders are bracing for a possible spike in signed contracts if rates fall below 6% later in the year.

Economic Data and Business News

Employment and Inflation

Layoffs are coming in waves, especially in retail, finance, and tech. Job additions are still occurring, but the pace is cooling. Inflation is easing, hovering just a tick above the Fed’s goal of 2% for the core measure. At the same time, energy prices increased in August, stretching household budgets. Wage gains are decelerating, which may dampen consumer spending as the holiday season approaches.

Precious Metals and Cryptocurrency

Gold prices remain steady, offering a refuge during volatile market conditions. Bitcoin continues to trade above $115,000, and analysts debate whether its behavior is driven more by inflation fears or pure speculation. Investors are splitting dollars between traditional metals and digital coins, creating unusual patterns in overall wealth strategy.

Bankruptcy Watch: In the past two weeks, several medium-sized retail chains and tech companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Soaring interest payments and a cooldown in shopper spending are pressuring these firms to reorganize. This pattern will likely pick up speed if loan rates remain high, even if the Fed makes only small cuts.

Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell Under Pressure Renovation Overruns and Political Firestorm

Upgrades to the Fed’s main building in Washington soared from around $1.9 billion to almost \$2.5 billion. Chair Powell has asked the Inspector General to investigate, but former President Trump and allies hint at possible fraud. Experts say dismissing a Fed Chair needs solid proof, so Trump’s threats look more like political theater. Still, the drama could rattle investors before the Fed’s next meeting.

Will Rates Drop 3%?

The idea of a sudden 3% interest cut is mostly chatter. Markets anticipate that mortgage rates will slip a little if the Fed lowers them by 25 basis points, but borrowers shouldn’t count on a quick plunge. Instead, expect a slow decline into late 2025 as inflation cools.

Tesla, Cybertruck Recalls, and Elon Musk’s Political Drama Cybertruck Problems and Recalls

The Tesla Cybertruck is having a rough start, with a string of recalls hitting in 2024 and 2025. The issues include faulty accelerator pedals and frame problems, affecting over 46,000 trucks. Things took a darker turn when a California crash left one person dead and a Cybertruck in flames. Investigators say drugs and speeding were the main causes, not a specific tech flaw, yet the incident put everyone on alert. Regulators in Washington, D.C., are watching every move Tesla makes, and the company’s quality team is feeling the pressure.

Musk vs. Trump: Bromance Ends

Elon Musk and Donald Trump have slid from buddies to public sparring partners. Trump hinted he might have a say in Musk’s immigration paperwork. Musk teased launching a new group called the “American Party.” The party talk is paused, but the spat remains in the headlines and could rattle more than just the political crowd. There are whispers that Musk’s wallet may feel the chill, too, if the drama drags on.

Investor Concerns: Spreading Too Thin

Money folks are sweating that Musk is blowing too much wind in too many sails. Tesla, SpaceX, the social media fixer called X, the brain chip crew at Neuralink, the tunneling team at The Boring Company, and now a possible political side gig all share the same boss. Critics use an old saying to sum it up: a jack of all trades is a master of none. They point to Tesla, still fighting recalls, facing new rules, and watching rivals like Ford, GM, Rivian, and Chinese makers swarm into otherwise open lanes.

Gavin Newsom and Wealth Questions

California Governor Gavin Newsom officially makes about $234,000 a year. Yet, critics keep asking how he owns several homes worth tens of millions. Some allege he crossed a line, but Newsom says he built his fortune before entering politics through restaurants, wineries, and smart investments. His net worth is likely high, at ten million, maybe more. No fraud accusations have stuck, so the question keeps circulating, especially among campaign rivals.

Tulsi Gabbard as DNI and “Russia, Russia, Russia”

Tulsi Gabbard took the DNI post in February 2025 and quickly cut the number of high-clearance insiders. She charges that past leaders misused intelligence for politics. Supporters of Donald Trump are calling it proof that Obama’s team did wrong. However, the Justice Department has yet to charge anyone. The Senate Intelligence Committee still insists that Russia meddled in the 2016 campaign. Still, proof beyond politics that any American conspired with it has yet to emerge.

Adam Schiff and Letitia James Mortgage Fraud Allegations

Senator Adam Schiff and New York AG Letitia James are under investigation for mortgage deals that critics call illegal. No indictments have landed, and each says the same: they broke no laws. The cases appear daily in headlines but have yet to take off in the courts.

Ghislaine Maxwell and the Alleged Epstein List

Federal prosecutors say a formal “Epstein client list” doesn’t exist, a claim Ghislaine Maxwell repeated in interviews. Many expected proof to appear, and survivor groups are understandably frustrated. Meanwhile, rumors that Maxwell might turn witness against influential men have not been substantiated, even as lawmakers say they are still monitoring the situation closely.

Trump, Musk, and the Changing Landscape

The split between Trump and Musk carries weight beyond headlines. Trump loses a visible tech backer, and Musk risks upsetting the conservative customers who helped build Tesla’s base. On top of that, Tesla is wrestling with fresh competition, ongoing recalls, and the threat of fines. Questions are now surfacing about whether Musk can split his focus without jeopardizing the company at a make-or-break time.

Three Fast Facts for Homebuyers and Agents

• Rates are Inching Down: A Federal Reserve cut could arrive and help, but go in expecting smaller moves, not a freefall.
• Buyer Interest is Rising, Yet the Supply is Still Thin: Agents and buyers alike should gear up for a busier fall now, not later.
• Tesla is Juggling Legal and Reputational Strain: Anyone considering a reservation and delivery should wait until the Cybertruck’s recall hiccups are fixed.
• Big-time political scandals splash the news, but actual charges usually don’t happen.
• Instead of stressing over headlines, home buyers should pay attention to the data that moves the housing market, not the gossip.

At Gustan Cho Associates, we make happen what other lenders can’t. Need a mortgage to buy your first house, refinance, or dive into non-QM loans? Our pros have the answers.

Get a Quote: Call us month to month at 800-900-8569—free advice all day

Learn More:

• Dive into our guides on [FHA Loans](https://www.gustancho.com/fha-loans).
• [VA Loans](https://www.gustancho.com/va-loans).
• [Non-QM Mortgages](https://www.gustancho.com/non-qm-mortgages).

Top 10 FAQs — September 13, 2025 Weekend Mortgage, Housing, and Market News

Will mortgage rates drop after the Fed meeting next week?

• A small dip may be possible.
• The Fed is expected to lower the target rate by 0.25%.
• Bead-seen, a cut like that typically slides the 30-year fixed mortgage rates just a hair lower rather than take a big leap downward overnight.

How low could mortgage rates go by the end of 2025?

• If inflation keeps slipping and the Fed makes one or two more cuts, the 30-year fixed could dip to the mid-5% range by late 2025.
• A fast whipsaw to the 3s is not in the forecast, so keep your expectations in check.

Why are housing inventory levels still so low?

• Homeowners who locked in 3% rates from 2020 and 2021 are staying put.
• New homes still can’t catch up because builders are battling supply-chain issues.
• Existing sellers, meanwhile, are pausing until something “better” comes along.
• The result?
• Lots of buyers and not enough sellers.
• Is now a good time to refinance your mortgage? If your current mortgage rate is above 7%, refinancing now is worth considering since it could lower your monthly payment.
• If your rate is in the low 6% zone, you might hold out for another potential cut from the Fed, but have your paperwork ready if rates drop to the 5% range.
• They can move fast, so you have to act fast, too.

What’s happening with Tesla and the Cybertruck?

• Tesla has announced a handful of recalls for the Cybertruck, including fixes for misaligned body trim and a possible risk with the accelerator pedal.
• These issues cover roughly 46,000 vehicles.
• There were reports of serious crashes with flames. However, at least one of the well-known cases is tied to speed and possible drug use, not a demonstrated vehicle problem.

Did President Trump really say he might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell?

• He suggested it after the Fed’s renovation bill for its D.C. headquarters hit $2.5 billion.
• While the comment is headline-grabbing, removing a Fed Chair without a solid reason is legally difficult.
• So it looks more like political posturing than an actual firing plan in the works.

How can Governor Gavin Newsom afford multimillion-dollar homes on a public salary?

• Newsom officially earns about $234,000 a year as governor, yet he had a sizable nest egg well before he took office.
• His money comes from the PlumpJack businesses he co-founded and from family assets, pushing his net worth into the tens of millions.
• Federal filings don’t indicate any outstanding fraud accusations.

What did Tulsi Gabbard do as Director of National Intelligence?

• Since her confirmation in February 2025, Gabbard has canceled 37 security clearances, citing links to what she calls politicized intelligence work.
• It’s stirred debate, yet no treason allegations have been made against former Obama officials.
• The removals have raised hackles on both sides.

Is there really an “Epstein client list”?

• The Justice Department and Ghislaine Maxwell now say an official list does not exist.
• Survivor groups counter that many victims feel overlooked and that detailed information is still missing.
• Claims continue to swirl about Maxwell possibly testifying against high-profile individuals, but the reports remain unverified.

What’s the outlook for the housing market in late 2025?

• Should mortgage rates keep falling, there could be a fresh rush of buyers.
• Still, if the supply stays tight, homes may remain hard to afford.
• Agents and mortgage lenders ought to brace for a crowded late-year market, as more shoppers will likely go after a limited number of properties.

At Gustan Cho Associates, we specialize in getting deals done when others say, “no.” Thanks to our no-overlay policy, we can close loans others can’t because we don’t add extra restrictions.

Need to Talk to Someone?

• Call our friendly and licensed loan officers at 800-900-8569.

• This discussion was modified 5 months, 3 weeks ago by  Lisa Jones.
• This discussion was modified 5 months, 3 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.

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FHA Loans After Unemployment Mortgage Guidelines

A borrower can qualify for a FHA loans after unemployment with gaps in employment and extended periods of unemployment in the past two years