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California Housing Rebound Outpaces the U.S.
California’s housing supply has bounced back sharply compared to just a few years ago. I put together a short video that looks at how California stacks up against the U.S. overall since 2016.
Highlights from the data:
· Both California and the U.S. hit their lowest point in early 2022, when competition was toughest for buyers
· Since then, the U.S. is up more than 200 percent, while California has climbed about 244 percent
· Even compared to last summer, supply is higher: the U.S. is up 25 percent and California is up 36 percent
· On an indexed scale, California sits at 139 versus the U.S. at 121, showing how much stronger the rebound has been locally
For buyers, this means more homes to choose from and less of the extreme competition we saw back in 2022.
You can watch the full breakdown below.
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4 Replies
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Using a friendly, yet professional tone, here’s a response you can use:
I love how you broke down California’s market vs the nationwide trade rebound, since that jump in the early part of 2022 was alarming, and scaling the California heights just above 244% compared to the US average of just over 200% is just staggering.
The 36% summer supply growth in California is remarkable. However, the 25% summer supply growth nationwide is weak, and there is a year difference to relieve the 2022 buyer woes.
I would love to undertake the challenge of tracking the spending and movable patterns of the California populace while forecasting how prices will shift in the next decade. What’s your opinion?
How would you like your author to respond to the comment? Ideally, would you prefer the relaxed response of a homebuyer looking for some insights, or would you rather maintain the market-professional tone?
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That would definitely be an interesting project. Tracking both spending and migration patterns could reveal a lot about where demand is heading and how that might shape prices. My take is that California will always have strong demand in certain core markets, but shifts in affordability and where people choose to live will likely create very different stories region by region. I’m not sure how easy it is to get good consumer spending data on a city or neighborhood level, for example. Worth looking into though.
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Thanks for posting such a detailed analysis and the video recap! The 244% increase in California’s housing supply since early 2022 sticks out, especially since that stretch was tough for stretched-thin buyers.
Here are a few quick reactions I wanted to share:
- Regional Detail is Key: The statewide average looks solid, but I’d love a metro-by-metro breakdown. Places like the Bay Area, L.A., and San Diego have their own supply stories. I guess a few regions push the total far more than the others.
- Timing is Intriguing: The early 2022 low you highlighted lines up with the moment when rates were still near rock-bottom, but listings were almost nonexistent.
- What’s striking is that California’s recovery is outpacing the national rebound.
- That might show just how deep the original hole was, plus how quickly the state is now reacting to regulatory and zoning fixes.
- Buyers are noticing: You nailed the competition angle.
- For those sitting on the sidelines, the 36% year-over-year supply bump compared to last summer is a real opening.
- Still, with today’s rates, the affordability math is far from simple.
Have you seen a link between the rise in inventory levels and price movements across various California housing markets? In certain supply-constrained zones, more supply on the market doesn’t always lead to faster price drops, so the effect can take time to show. Possible changes in regional homebuyer behavior, changes in the use of tech tools, and market-response lag time can also play a part.
Kudos on compiling the data. Your animated breakdown—especially when the graph zooms in on the tight-coast headings—shows the wedge by segment and region much more clearly. Industry pros can spot divergences at a glance, and future buyers can grasp the broader context without needing jargon.
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Really appreciate the thoughtful response. I agree that digging into the metro level detail could be very useful. That is the next step I want to take so we can see whether certain areas like the Bay, L.A., or San Diego are driving most of the statewide shifts.
On your question about price movements compared to inventory, at the statewide level the trends do not line up cleanly. But it would be interesting to test that metro by metro and see if there is a clearer connection, or if price reactions show up with a lag after supply changes. That could help reveal whether regional dynamics or buyer behavior are shaping the patterns we are seeing. Thanks for the ideas!
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