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GCA Forums Headline News for Friday March 28 2025
GCA Forums News Bulletin: Friday, March 28, 2025Overarching Analysis of the US Economy and Financial Markets
The United States economy exhibits signs of improvement alongside headwinds as we approach the start of Q2 2025. The most recent GDP calculation shows a modest increase of about 2.3% for the first quarter, which came in lower than most analysts’ expectations of 2.5%. As reported in the previous report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate remains constant at 4.1%.
In the tech stock market, the DJIA index received considerable support during the first period of the week. Closing yesterday’s session at 42876, it gained another 0.7% over the week. Also, stocks from the energy sector continue to feel the impact of changing oil prices. The tech industry continues to perform well on the stock market in conjunction with the oil industry.
Federal Reserve and the Benchmark Interest Rates
During the last FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Open Markets Committee left the key interest rate unchanged. It kept it in the range of 3.75% to 4% on the target corridor. Chair Nathan Davidson noted that although inflation is still coming down, the committee continues to monitor inflation risk and employment data if it plans to make any changes. Now, most betting on market expectations lean towards a cut in June, which is subject to change depending on the set of economic data released beforehand.
Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.32%, which showed modest movement after the Fed’s statement and new GDP figures.
Inflation and Consumer Metrics
The CPI showed February’s inflation rate at 2.8% YoY, a level not seen for nearly three years and the lowest reading to date. Core CPI, inflation excluding volatile food and energy components, came in at 2.6%. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is also expected to show some easing when released next week.
Consumer confidence saw a slight uptick in March, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index moving from February’s 106.7 to 108.2. This rebound suggests consumers are still willing to spend at the same pace, even when inflation remains a major concern.
Housing Market Conditions Inventory and Demand
Housing inventory has increased by 14.2% annually since 2021, relieving persistent supply constraints that have afflicted the market. The current inventory is about 1.5 million units across the country, representing around 3.2 months of supply at the current sales rate. Although this is better, inventory remains below 5-6 months, which is considered a healthy range.
Builders are responding to the ongoing housing demand. New home construction started in February at a 1.42 million annualized rate, representing a 3.8% increase from January. Also, permits to construct new buildings increased, indicating that construction activities will be sustained during spring.
Pricing and Selling
Home prices have increased. The median price for existing homes stands at 412310, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. Mortgage interest rate hikes have also impacted inventory price growth.
The sales of existing homes decreased by 1.4% in February, bringing the annualized tisane rate down to 4.05 million. This marks the third month of decline in home sales. However, pending home sales showed an increase of 2.8%, which indicates that there might be potential for boosting the volume of transactions for selling in spring.
Home Loans Interest Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for this period was 6.32%, while the previous week’s was 6.38%. Exceeding this, fifteen-year fixed mortgages and 5/1 ARMs are reported to be 5.64% and 5.21%, respectively. Regardless of the increase in these interest rates compared with 2020 to 2021, when rates were below 3%, this new predictability will be favorable to home purchasers after multiple months of non-changing severe conditions.
Mortgage Application Activity
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey reported a 2.5% increase in mortgage applications. Refinance applications saw a 3.7% increase, while purchase applications increased by 1.9%. Returning to last year’s numbers will take a long time because the overall application volume is still 16.3% lower than last year’s.
Mortgage Lending Landscape
Mortgage lenders continue to cope with the new normal of high rates by widening their product lines. Affordable solutions that have gained traction include non-QM loans, adjustable-rate mortgages, and temporary buydown options. Also, FHA and VA loan originations are growing in market share, representing approximately 28% of purchase mortgage activity.
With ongoing volume crunching, lender competition has accelerated. This leads to lower profit margins and increases in industry consolidation.
Commercial Real Estate Market
There is mixed performance across asset classes for commercial real estate. In the lead are data centers and industrial properties. These outperform office spaces, where vacancy levels sit high at 17.8%. Retail properties are coming up with strengthened foot traffic and a drop in vacancy rates for prime areas.
Though occupancy rates are 94.2% nationally, multifamily investment activity has slowed amidst heightened financing costs. Rent growth per year has declined to 2.1% after peaking in 2022.
The delinquency rates for commercial mortgages increased slightly to 2.4% in February, with office properties experiencing the most stress at 4.1%.
Precious Metals and Commodities
Gold prices hit yet another record this week, trading at $2,748 per ounce, an 11.3% increase from the start of the year. Analysts say the increase is due to persisting geopolitical conflicts and positioning for expected Fed rate cuts later this year. Silver costs $32.45 per ounce, while platinum and palladium have recorded milder increases.
Oil prices have remained around $78 per barrel for WTI crude as the supply and demand remain balanced. Natural gas prices still face downward pressure from strong production and sufficient storage levels.
Mid America NAHREP Real Estate Economic Report
Loan Program Highlights: Down payment assistance programs, first-time homebuyer programs, VA IRRRL (Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan), FHA 203(k) renovation loans, rate buydowns, HomeReady and Home Possible affordability programs, jumbo loan products, bank statement mortgage programs, and DSCR investment property loans.
This multi-faceted market summary illustrates the state of affairs as of Friday, March 28, 2025. All market players are advised to engage with financial advisers who are tailored to their particular circumstances and investment strategies.
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