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GCA Forums Headline News for Tuesday March 18 2025
This is the latest in national headline news pertaining to real estate, housing, mortgage and interest rates, the economy, unemployment, the Federal Reserve Board, Consumer Price Index (CPI), GDP, housing inventory versus demand, the Dow Jones, precious metals, other markets, and the entire commercial and residential mortgaging industry, effective Tuesday, March 18, 2025.
Economic Overview
In their latest analysis, U.S. economists have indicated that they expect a deceleration in the growth rate of the U.S. economy, revising their 2025 outlook from 2.3% to 1.6%. This slowdown is expected due to recently enacted tariffs and uncertainty around policy related to consumer and business spending. Inflation also seems to be on the rise, with the core personal consumption expenditures price index expected to reach 2.8% by year-end 2025.
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting today. It is widely expected that they will keep the interest rates where they are. The Fed is under a lot of scrutiny and investors are looking for commentary surrounding the Fed’s guidance on future monetary policy, particularly given the recent economic slowdown.
Mortgage Rates and Housing Market
Mortgage rates, on the other hand, have had minor increases recently.
As of March 2025, the twenty-five-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 6.65%, while the fifteen-year one stands at 5.8%. Despite these new rates, the housing market still struggles to sustain affordability. The high prices of homes combined with elevated mortgage rates are set to last until 2026. This trend will continue and worsen the housing crisis.
Demand and Supply of Housing Inventory
The United states is experiencing a grave issue, a lack of homes. There is an estimate of a gap of 3.8 million homes for people to buy. Single family home building did see an 11.4% increase during February but that along with the new building permits becoming forward-looking indicators offers a break of 0.2%. Permitting and subsequent construction put a lot of strain on the mounting pressure to construct affordable housing and worsening the home price.
Unemployment Rate
The specific figure for unemployment in March 2025 is still pending, however, recent layoffs, including but not limited to the Department of Health and Human Services, treasury, and agriculture funding offices, have increased concerns over rising numbers for the unemployment rate. We estimate this trend to have lasting effects on consumer spending and the economic growth.
Stock Market Update
America’s stock prices have dipped today, attributing this to anxieties surrounding the changes proposed with tariff policies and the coming Federal Reserve Meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is valued at $415.61, reflecting a decrease of 0.86%.
Other Precious Metals Outlined
Precious metals have displayed a varied performance:
- Gold: SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) trades at $280.03, showing an increase of 1.19%.
- Silver: The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is currently trading at $31.05, an increase of 0.78%.
- Platinum: Granite Shares Platinum Shares (PLTM) are trading slightly lower at $9.68, down 0.31%.
- Palladium: The abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) is currently trading at $88.42, down by 0.27%.
Residential, Business, and Commercial Mortgages
This mortgage sector is currently dealing with volatile interest rates and economic uncertainty. With these dynamics, lenders compete with one another with different loan programs to target different borrowers. Some of the main mortgage lending keywords are:
Fixed-Rate Mortgages:
These are loans with constant interest rates throughout the loan.
Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs):
- These loans have interest payments that vary at set intervals depending on the current rates.
FHA Loans:
- These loans are insured by the Federal Housing Administration and are aimed at first-time home purchasers.
VA Loans:
- These are loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and are offered to current service members and veterans.
Jumbo Loans:
- Loans larger than the conforming home loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac set.
Refinancing:
- The action of obtaining a new mortgage to pay off an existing one due to better terms or interest rates.
In short, the U.S. economy is in turmoil due to policy changes, trade wars, and stock market volatility. These affect real estate and housing prices, mortgage rates, and the economy.
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National Headline News Overview for March 18, 2025
The Real Estate Riddle
Home Inventory Challenges:
- During the pandemic, the housing market’s inventory issues have worsened, with the number of homes for sale now approximately 30% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
- This trend has also led to a 10% increase in median home prices year over year, which poses challenges relating to accessibility for many buyers.
Mortgage Rates and Interest Rates
Current Mortgage Rates:
- As of March 18, 2025, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan is around 6.68%.
- These rates may decrease as the Federal Reserve continues working through various economic factors.
Homebuyer Recommendations:
- Researching different loan programs is encouraged, as many experts suggest moving quickly before additional rate increases happen.
Economic Overview
Consumer Price Index (CPI):
- The most recent CPI report shows inflation easing to 2.8% for February compared to 3.0% in January.
- This drop could impact several of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.
GDP Growth:
- The Congressional Budget Office expects GDP growth of approximately 2.5% for 2025, a projected decline from the previous year but still indicating economic strength.
Unemployment Trends
Stable Job Market:
- The unemployment rate stays relatively constant with only minor fluctuations, currently at approximately 4%.
- Job growth is beginning to show signs of slowing down.
- This moderating growth may reduce some inflation difficulties.
Federal Reserve Board Actions
Monetary Policy:
- The Fed examines inflation and other economic activity indicators, indicating that it will proceed cautiously in increasing interest rates, depending on how conditions evolve.
Stock Market Performance
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
- While the Dow has been rather volatile, it has managed to stay around the 32,000 mark due to investors responding to predominately mixed economic data alongside pending policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Precious Metals and Other Markets
Gold Prices:
- Gold is expected to sell for around $2,924 per ounce in the middle of March, reflecting growing demand for safe-haven gold assets during geopolitical unease.
Bond Market:
- As inflation and interest rate forecasts shift, investors change their approach to the bond market, resulting in shifting yields.
Political and Legal Developments
Biden’s Pardons and Legal Concerns
- President Biden’s decision to pardon 1,500 people, including some close family members and political allies, such as Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci, and Adam Schiff, comes under scrutiny because the reasonable expectation is that these pardons are void due to an auto-pen signing of what seems to be generic signatures on each pardon.
- This creates an enormous amount of controversy regarding the legal premise.
U.S. Attorney Pam Bondi’s Fraud Prosecutions
U.S. Attorney Pam Bondi has commenced legal action against numerous politicians and other individuals for alleged fraudulent activity. These prosecutions, which target financial crimes and corruption, signify attempts to repair widespread fraudulent activity in public service.
As of March 18, 2025, the nation’s state is extremely volatile due to profound changes in real estate and mortgage markets and immense political and legal headwinds. Participants from all industries need to pay attention as these trends develop further.
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What legal challenges are expected regarding Biden’s pardons?
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Some of the potential legal issues around Biden’s pardons are listed below:
Signature Legitimacy:
There is potential for dispute regarding every pardon signed using an auto-pen rather than handwritten signatures. Detractors could claim this form of issuance fails to address legal prerequisites concerning pardons.
Limitations on Pardons:
There may be contestation pertaining to the scope and nature of pardons offered, particularly those extended to close family and political aides. Opponents may claim these acts demonstrate an overreaching authority and conflict of interest.
Public Interests:
There may be other litigations contesting whether extending some of the pardons serves public order, especially if those pardoned are viewed as having committed grave offenses.
Precedence Alongside Legal Experts:
Disputing parties can challenge other existing historical cases where the power to grant reprieve sentence enforced has been exercised.
Political and Legal Reaction:
Persistent bias may trigger partisan divisiveness along the party lines of the litigants and judges.
All of the above stated issues need deep deliberation and examination duing assigned issues for cross examination also requiring expansion of forensic boundaries of the use of flexibility of the presidents arms powers to extend boundaries.
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Could you elaborate on the “auto-pen” argument’s legal basis?
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The track of the argument regarding the legal implications of an auto-pen rests primarily on the concepts of authenticity and intent with respect to granting pardons. Here is a summary:
Constitutional Requirements: As provided in the U.S. Constitution, the president of America holds the exclusive right to issue pardons. However, the processes employed in executing this power must follow a legal framework consistent with the verification of the signature being issued. There is a significant degree of criticism concerning the use of an auto-pen, arguing its application lacks the personal responsibility synonymous with such a grave decision.
Intent and Authority: The intent to grant or lessen punishment entails the intent by the president, which is indicative of a pardon. It is argued that if a signature is generated through an auto-pen, as opposed to being written by the president, it does not carry the required intent necessary for it.
Precedent: Existing legal practices regarding the application of signatures may also come into consideration. Courts may consider whether the signature made by means of an auto-pen fulfills the legal standards of authenticity in governmental acts.
Legislative Intent: This may foster an argument among legal experts regarding the application of auto-pen installed devices pertinent to legislative guidelines designed to govern the unconditional use of pardon powers issued on personal discretion by the president.
Judicial Interpretation: Any legal disputes would still have to be interpreted within the context of the courts. It is within the bounds of judgment whether the use of an auto-pen is within the bounds of practices concerning legislation of presidential pardons.
This could provide the basis for legal challenges regarding the permissibility of automating the pardon process through an auto-pen; these challenges doubtfully will receive any judicial consideration.
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