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GCA Forums News For Friday December 12 2025
GCA FORUMS NEWS – Friday, December 12, 2025-Powered by Gustan Cho Associates
All figures below are approximate and based on publicly available data as of Friday afternoon, December 12, 2025 (ET).
Markets Wrap: Dow Holds Near Records, Tech Leads Pullback
On December 12, 2025, U.S. stock prices fell after rising earlier in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had recently hit record highs, dropped 0.6% to close around $48,400 to $48,700. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell by approximately 1% and 1.5-1.6%, respectively. Investors reacted to uncertainty about the Fed’s rate cut and disagreements within the Fed on how quickly to tighten policy. The U.S. Trade Representative also signaled that new and expanded tariffs could be coming, which may affect advanced economies and corporate profits.
Borrowers and homebuyers are feeling the effects as stock indexes hit all-time highs. This boosts retirement accounts, 401(k)s, and down payment savings for those invested in the stock market. People with higher incomes benefit the most, especially when interest rates remain high.
Live Rates: Mortgages, Bonds, and the Cost of Money Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage rates have decreased from their 2022-2023 highs, but remain well above 3%, according to several sources.
- A typical 30-year fixed mortgage (purchase) is currently about 6.27-6.33% APR.
- Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly as of 12/11/2025)
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- 30-year fixed: 6.22%
- 15-year fixed: 5.54%
Nationwide, rates can vary depending on credit, loan type, and state, so GCA pricing may differ.
- Conventional 30-yr fixed: ~ 6.2-6.4%
- FHA 30-year rates are generally slightly lower than conventional rates, with Freddie Mac showing a rate just above 6.0%.
- VA 30-year loans are slightly higher than FHA or conventional rates, even for borrowers with strong credit.
- Jumbo conventional: ~6.4-6.5%+
Effects on Borrowers:
- A $600,000 mortgage currently costs thousands more than it would at an interest rate of 3-4%, regardless of the recent Fed rate cut.
- On the positive side, spreads have stabilized. If inflation remains low, 2026 could bring lower interest rates and increased home sales, even as tariffs continue to drive inflation.
Treasury Yield
- The 10-year. The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at about 4.19% this week and is moving slightly upward, reflecting a cautious yet calm market attributed to the Fed.
- Particularly important for mortgages, as fixed mortgage rates tend to follow the yield of the 10-year Treasury, plus a margin of caution.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at about 4.19% this week and is edging upward.
- This shows a cautious but calm market, influenced by the Fed.
- FFS increases the prices of goods Americans buy, including groceries and housing, as import costs are passed on to consumers.
Key events and assessments:
- AP quotes Democrats estimating $1,200 loss per US household attributed to tariffs since Trump’s latest return to office in 2025.
- A Tax Foundation analysis found that Trump’s tariffs have led to an average ‘tax’ loss of about $1,200 per household by distorting trade and raising prices.
- The analysis found that tariffs are responsible for 0.4-0.5 percentage points of the core PCE inflation for the last year, which is approximately 10.9% of the inflation.
- J.P. Morgan estimates that 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points of core inflation are due to tariffs, indicating that 40-50% of tariff costs are passed on to consumers, and this share may increase.
Recent tariffs in the news:
- The U.S. Trade Representative added new Section 301 tariffs on Nicaraguan imports and increased rates on imports from some other countries.
- They have updated their ‘Trump 2.0 tariff tracker’.
- U. S. Announced 15% Tariffs on Nicaragua over Human Rights, which will be Gradually Implemented over the next Few Years.
- Mexico is extending its International Trade Agreements and will begin charging tariffs of up to 50% on Non-Favored Trading Partners – including India – effective January 1, 2026.
- This shows a broader move toward protectionist trade policies worldwide.
Borrowers
- When tariffs increase, inflation typically rises as well, which is reflected in key price indexes such as the CPI and PCE that the Fed monitors. If inflation stays high, mortgage rates are likely to stay high as well. An analysis from the Center for American Progress referred to these tariffs as a ‘hidden holiday tax’ because they increased the prices of toys, personal care, and home goods, which are the same goods consumers typically budget for while saving for a down payment.
Jobs and Consumer AttitudeAn Inflation Snapshot
- The latest official CPI data for September 2025 is
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- 3.0% for headline inflation year over year.
- 3.0% is the Core inflation (without food and energy).
- The Cleveland Fed estimates that monthly inflation was between 0.24% and 0.29% in November and December. Inflation remains steady, but is not increasing rapidly.
Jobs and Unemployment
- U.S. Unemployment Rate (September 2025): 4.4%. This number is the highest it has been since 2021 and is slightly higher than the predicted rate.
Some states are suffering more than others:
- For example, in September, Oregon’s unemployment rate was 5.2% This is a 1% increase from last year.
In housing, slow growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment make homes less affordable. This is sometimes referred to as ‘stagflation lite’ or ‘slow growth, high cost.’
Consumer Sentiment
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has increased, but remains low by historical standards, even after rising to 53.3–53.6. other words, consumers feel slightly better than they did last month.
- For real estate agents and lenders, this mood means people are making decisions more slowly than usual.
Gold
- When markets are uncertain, people often buy metals as a form of hedging.- Gold: 4,341 per ounce USD and is near a 7-week high
Silver:
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- Silver is trading around $62 per ounce this afternoon, near a recent high of about $64.31.
Reasons:
- The weaker dollar
- Expectations for more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026
- Silver is in high demand for industry and has recently been named a U.S. ‘critical mineral.’
For GCA’s investor clients:
- The rise in metal prices indicates that investors are seeking ways to mitigate risk.
- DSCR investors note that higher metals and sticky inflation can keep long-term rates high, which will affect the value of cap rates and the value of DSCR refi math.
Recent housing forecasts predict that the market will neither crash nor boom.
A Real Estate News analysis of 2026 housing trends predicts a modest increase in home sales, accompanied by lower mortgage rates.
2023 is not expected to be a total loss, as a recession is unlikely; however, affordability will remain a challenge.
CBS recently explained how the Fed’s December rate cut affects monthly payments on a $600,000 mortgage, showing that even small rate changes can save or cost hundreds each month.
GCA Forums News: Viewers, Borrowers and Agents
For 2026, expect small, steady changes, but not a return to the bargain prices of 2012.
Revenue deal structuring remains vital.
Creative deal structuring remains important, with options such as FHA, VA, Non-QM, DSCR, 2/1 buydowns, and seller credits.
As for the infidelity and paternity claims surrounding Vice President JD Vance and Erika Kirk (widow of activist Charlie Kirk), how do you assess the validity of those claims?### 7.1 What Actually Happened Publicly
- During a Turning Point USA event on October 29, Erika Kirk embraced Vance.
- Pictures and videos show her hand in his hair and his hand on her waist.
- This generated suggestions of having an affair.
- This led some commentators to suggest an affair, saying Vance seemed more affectionate with Erika than in videos with his wife, Usha Vance.
- Recently went viral with claims that Vance is the father of her alleged pregnancy.
- However, there is no solid evidence to support these claims, so they are best viewed as internet gossip.
Mainstream coverage:
- A report on the embrace and reaction. Salon and other outlets reported on the embrace and reactions, but treated it as gossip and speculation rather than a confirmed affair. Outlets, including People, have focused on Vance, addressing the more expansive marriage speculation and Vance, albeit without evidence of infidelity.
What We Do NOT HAVE EVIDENCE FOR
- There have been no reputable, confirmed allegations that JD Vance and Erika Kirk are in a romantic relationship.
- There is no confirmed evidence that Vance is the father of Erika Kirk.
- Vance has been married to his wife for many years and has been refuting accusations suggesting his marriage has been on the rocks.
So here’s what I can say:
The rumors surrounding The Affair and alleged fatherhood are purely speculative, and I cannot treat them as fact. There are no other rumors, but there is real and very public media drama:
- Candace Owens has taken heat from Erika Kirk for what he’s called a vile and intrusive response to the assassination of her husband, Charlie Kirk, and the subsequent public refusal to disclose his burial site.
- Erika Kirk has pushed back on Owens’ alleged vile suggestions during the interview with Bari Weiss. Owens claimed that Weiss is making money off of conspiracy theories that have no grounding and that her theories are about Charlie’s death.
- Owens responded on social media, saying Erika wants to control her image like Meghan Markle and has been in a bad mood lately, ready to escalate the drama.
So these are the facts:
- There is real, documented tension between Owens and Erika Kirk, marked by conspiracy, loss, and drama.
- The affair and pregnancy rumors cannot be confirmed, as there are no reliable sources.
Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, and the FBI Mess
You also wanted to know about Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, Alexis Wilkins, the FBI plane, SWAT details, and whether Trump is taking a negative stance towards them.
Use of the FBI Plane and Security Detail
Information as of late:
- House Democrats on the Judiciary Committee are now investigating FBI Director Christopher Wray, not Kash Patel. They are looking into Wray’s use of a jet, including alleged trips to visit his country singer girlfriend, Alexis Wilkins, and other personal travel that he instructed the FBI security detail assigned to his girlfriend to drive one of her reportedly drunk Nashville night friends home after they had been out.
- The FBI defended Patel against claims of misusing security agents, and Patel did not have a Nashville SWAT team assigned to Wilkins.
- She has received serious, credible death threats.
So, where does that leave things?
- There are serious allegations and ongoing investigations into how Patel spent taxpayer money.
- The FBI disputes some of the more sensational claims, and no formal charges have been filed so far.
Internal Turmoil and \“Clown Bongino\”Dan Bongino’s Role:
- Dan Bongino, a former Secret Service agent and conservative personality, is now the Deputy Director of the FBI under Trump.
- Reports indicate significant internal dissent within the FBI regarding the leadership of Patel and Bongino.
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- A Daily Beast article emphasized internal critics referring to them as \“Keystone Kash\” and \“Clown Bongino,\” representing the ire of some career agents.
- Other articles talk about loyalty tests, polygraph use, and culture clashes between MAGA-aligned appointees and longtime FBI staff.
Political Heat:
- A group of fired FBI agents has sued Patel, the DOJ, and the administration for retaliation in violation of the law for kneeling during 2020 racial-justice protests.
- Patel and Bongino have also faced scrutiny related to the Epstein files.rts show that *Bongino* has been in contention with Attorney General Pam Bondi over redactions and lack of transparency.
Are They ‘On Their Way Out’?The Devil is in the details:
- MS NOW reported that Trump has been thinking of ousting Patel, but:
- The White House and Trump denied this on the record, calling it \“fake news\” and tweeting pictures of Trump and Patel together.
Reports suggest that Bongino could be politically at risk due to the Epstein files controversy and low morale at the FBI, but there is no indication that Trump has decided to fire him.
Given that, the fairest summary as of now is:
- Patel and Bongino are facing criticism from Congress, the media, and people inside the FBI.
Trump
There are rumors that Trump is considering replacements, but both the White House and Trump have stayed quiet, which suggests he is still supporting Patel for now.
Any claims that ‘these two are out’ or that ‘Trump is turning against them’ are just speculation based on what we know now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjCct-uC7vc&list=RDNSjjCct-uC7vc&start_radio=1
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This discussion was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by
Sapna Sharma.
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2 Replies
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A lot of Democrat Americans are leaving the Democrat Party and becoming Republican. All states are RED STATES and only some cities are BLUE cities
The Democrats are showing their true colors and many Americans are realizing the evil 😈 things they do and the type of crimes they are committing.
https://youtube.com/shorts/woEtOy8AXfM?si=2Nmjab3LOhPX1Hns
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Here’s a spot on truth cartoon about Trump explaining the definition of a bona fide Democrat
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