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GCA Forums News for Friday June 13 2025
GCA Forums News: National Update for Friday, June 13, 2025
Welcome to GCA Forums News. We look across the country in June, from the troubled housing market to the breaking Los Angeles riots. If you need the headlines fast, you are in the right place.
Housing and Mortgage News
- High mortgage rates, stubbornly set near 6.89 percent, keep many buyers on the sidelines.
- Freddie Mac numbers from June 12 show a tiny dip from 6.97, yet the relief feels thin.
- Redfin reports about half a million more buyers than homes for sale.
- Weighted by that gap, the median house price of $416,900 in the first quarter is still out of reach for nurses, teachers, and recent grads.
- Fannie Mae expects a full-year slide toward 6.1 percent and 5.8 percent heading into 2026.
- Redfin hedges lower, and the rest of 2025 will be around 6.8.
- Most economists, however, warn borrowers hoping for a dip below 5.5 are waiting on a recession that no one truly wants.
Renting vs. Buying
- People eyeing a new place are staring at sky-high mortgage rates, so renting starts to look like the smarter move.
- Bright MLS says prices are still increasing, but not fast enough for buyers to call the shots.
- In the priciest cities, the monthly rent often beats the math on a 30-year loan.
Feds Watchlist
- Jerome Powell and his crew at the Federal Reserve feel the heat from every corner.
- The May 2025 policy meeting ended with the funds rate at 4.25 to 4.50 percent because the inflation and job numbers won’t sit.
Future Rate Moves
- Most Wall Street pros, including the folks at Citibank, don’t see any cuts before the September calendar rolls around.
- Powell keeps saying the decision depends on the next batch of data, no matter what politicians shout out.
- President Trump and FHFA head William Pulte are still waving the cut-them-now banner, yet the Chair stays cool.
Tariff Clouds
- Powell keeps the tariff talk in his back pocket, admitting that Washington duty games could pinch growth while pushing prices higher.
- The clock is ticking on the rumored 90-day reset, and every tick adds noise to bond yields.
Critics Circle
- Real-estate magnate Grant Cardone is never shy; he calls the rate freeze a flat-out housing disaster.
- Pulte jumps in, echoing that the high Fed line is icing the market for most home shoppers.
Economic Snapshot
- The latest scoreboards are mixed.
- May CPI showed prices creeping up again.
- The Kansas City branch predicts 3.2 percent for the year, well over that 2 percent comfort mark the Fed brags about at the meeting.
Unemployment and Job Growth
- April 2025 welcomed 177,000 new non-farm payrolls, a pleasant surprise that beat most forecasts.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, though a lean 37,000 added to private payrolls planted a few seeds of worry.
Cost of Living
- Recent tariffs on imported goods have some experts warning that prices of electric bills could jump again.
- Consumer spending looked tired in the first quarter, and early estimates show GDP growth slowed from the previous pace.
Stock and Bond Markets
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 0.62%, easing the anxiety of anxious home shoppers by lowering mortgage rates a notch.
- Even so, trading floors feel jumpy because nobody can predict tomorrow’s tariff announcement.
Letitia James Mortgage Fraud Allegations
- New York Attorney General Letitia James is now at the center of a federal mortgage fraud inquiry.
- FBI agents working under Director Kash Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino, are conducting the probe.
Investigation Progress
- A grand jury in Virginia’s Eastern District has already sent out subpoenas.
- James insists the scrutiny is payback for her $455 million win over Trump.
- As of June 13, 2025, he faces no charges, indictments, or set trial dates.
CFPB and DOJ Involvement
- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, now under the supervision of Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, investigates potential consumer harm.
- Attorney General Pam Bondi has made the case a top DOJ priority.
Public Sentiment
- James plans to fund her legal defense with private and state money, a decision critics say smells of political maneuvering.
- Public opinion remains split, with supporters praising her toughness and detractors shouting foul play.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry
- Right now, the housing market feels stuck.
- Mortgage rates are high, so homeowners skip refinancing, and sales volume is flat.
- Gustan Cho Associates, famous for its hands-on FHA and VA underwriting, keeps hearing from borrowers with bruised credit and even folks in Chapter 7 bankruptcy.
- That steady traffic proves demand never really disappears.
- More inventory is showing up on listing sheets.
- Buyers in the market enjoy extra wiggle room, yet prices barely budge enough to jump-start movement.
- Non-QM loans are finding a niche for self-employed workers and others who don’t fit the QM narrow box.
- The catch, of course, is a heftier down payment that some families don’t have.
Trump Administration and Cabinet
- President Trump is still trying to check off big campaign promises six months in, and more than a few voters are counting.
- His tariffs may cheer factory owners, but critics want to see the indictments that keep getting hinted at.
- Trump and Elon Musk are no longer sparring on Twitter.
- They are teaming up in Washington, too.
- Musk’s new Department of Government Efficiency- DOGE, everyone is calling it, claims it has uncovered waste that would make accountants gasp.
- The centerpiece, a sprawling reform nicknamed the Big Beautiful Bill, has yet to hit a single markup.
- Staffers parade maps and flowcharts in and out of the Oval Office, but real legislative draft ink is still dry.
- Inside the Justice Department, Pam Bondi draws sharp lines.
- Her brisk pace on the James probe matches Trump’s tone, yet it raises flags about whether the law is being enforced or choreographed.
Conflict at the Top
- FBI insiders are nervous after Kash Patel and Dan Bongino slid into the director’s chairs.
- They say Patel has never tried a criminal case, and Bongino hasn’t worn a badge in years.
- Law staffers complain the pair don’t have the courtroom chops to keep the agency’s word.
Still No Handcuffs
- Campaign trail bluster promised busts for the Biden clan, Secretary Mayorkas, and Dr. Fauci, yet the grand jury’s silence is deafening.
- DOGE’s forensic teams are still sifting through paper, but show nothing the public can grab.
L.A. in Flames
- Los Angeles streets are burning as of June 13, 2025.
- Local papers hint at police shortages or a new celebrity scandal.
- Still, nobody can pin the match that lit the fuse.
- NATIONAL GAZETTE and even cable networks are strangely quiet on the flashpoints.
Odds and Ends
- Bond traders are jittery because former President Trump just tossed fresh China tariffs back onto the table.
- Powell v. Federal Board landed yesterday, and the Justices said Jay Powell can’t be fired at a whim.
- That move buys the Fed more leeway.
- Stagflation worries keep shoppers grim, and layoffs are now more headline than rumor.
Big Picture
- Housing sales are stuck in the mud, mortgage notes are back to 7 percent, and voters feel the squeeze.
- The Letitia James probe is getting louder, and critics still slam Trump for cabinet picks that look light on experience and heavy on a promise.
- GCA Forums News will ring your phone if anything moves.
Got a quick mortgage question? Gustan Cho Associates answers phones and emails quickly. Dial 800-900-8569 or email alex@gustancho.com, and someone will jump in.
- Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warns that inflation is hotter than a Thanksgiving turkey.
- Headlines rumble about Trump tariffs that could push lumber back into orbit.
- New York AG Letitia James is busy unraveling tales of mortgage fraud.
- When rent is due and budgets are tight, many folks weigh renting vs. buying with anxious calculators.
- An unemployment tick-up or down changes everybody’s housing plans.
- Seasoned watchers recall how the Trump administration’s policies made both waves and calm in the markets.
- Kash Patel and Dan Bongino still trade barbs on cable.
- At the same time, the Los Angeles riots linger in the memory of investors.
- Even Congress joins the chatter, throwing around phrases like the Big Beautiful Bill.
- Tech titan Elon Musk swings between backing wild ideas and cozying up to Trump.
- Between all that, mortgage rates hover, nudging the price tags on starter homes.
- Stock market volatility never sleeps, and neither do the blogs trying to explain why.
- Today’s buzzword is housing market 2025, a date that feels close yet very far.
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Have some questions regarding Israel bombing Iran? What are they thinking? Or what were they thinking? What does this mean? Are they nuts? What does this mean to the stock markets? What does this mean to the U.S. economy? What does this mean for inflation? What does this mean for employment numbers, bankruptcies, and the housing market? The bond markets? Precious metals? The mortgage markets, interest rates, mortgage rates, the recession in the forecast, which is supposed to be bigger than the 2008 financial crisis, and the real estate and mortgage industries? What does this mean for the Trump Administration, the Republicans, the Democrats, and the nation, as well as global economic, humanitarian, and political well-being?
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That last flash of news, you saw instant questions hitting your mind, the shake-up rattling markets, economies, and the whole geopolitical deck at once.
Let’s walk through it step by step so you can plug the facts into an update, a client note, or a quick blog post. There is no fluff, just the bullet points.
Context: Israel Bombs Iran
What Were They Thinking? Why Now?
- Israeli planners probably figured certain military or would-be nuclear sites inside Iran were an *imminent danger.
- Iranian officials bankroll groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas that fire rockets or run propaganda straight at Israel.
- The constant connected threat is hard to ignore.
- Israeli leaders also face fierce domestic political heat, public nerves over a security spike after every fresh incident.
- Another read: Jerusalem wanted to hit Iranian weapons flows before they crossed a red line into finished projectiles or tactical gear.
- Some analysts say the attack was also meant to yank U.S. and European eyes back to Tehran, redirecting attention from Ukraine, China, or other hot spots.
Are They Nuts?
- To many Western observers, the raid looks reckless.
- Bombs rarely create calm.
- Yet Israel moves on a wait-and-you-die calculus honed by decades of wars and terror strikes.
- Brief history lesson: Israel once bombed a French-built nuclear plant in Iraq.
- The world complained that Iraq never finished the reactor.
- That tells you how the Israeli mindset works.
- They won’t hug the fence while risking arrows.
- Bombing Iran would probably light a match in the Middle East.
- A wider regional war could spark almost overnight.
- Iran itself might fire back, or it could quietly send its proxies to take swings at U.S. forces or allies.
- The oil market, already nervous, would spiral.
- Pumps could roar louder than any jet.
- Diplomacy could collapse in real time; talking rooms empty before anyone finishes a cup of coffee.
Impact on the Stock Markets
- News breaks, and traders hit sell before reading the headline.
- Defense giants like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin suddenly look like the safest place to park cash.
- Oil explorers and drillers gain ground as crude prices bounce.
- Safer bets, such as U.S. Treasuries and gold glitter, while tech stocks quietly sink.
- The so-called fear gauge, the VIX, jumps because people want insurance on their portfolios.
Impact on the U.S. Economy
- Crude near or over \$100 a barrel becomes a stealth tax for American drivers.
- Jet fuel, trucking diesel, and shipping rates climb, pushing goods prices north.
- Families trim take-out and new sneakers, making retailers feel the pinch.
- Squeezed margins hit earnings reports, and Wall Street cools on high-flying valuations.
Impact on Inflation
- Energy costs jump first, and shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz get shaky.
- Higher logistics bills bleed into grocery prices, especially imported staples.
- The Fed faces a messy choice: keep rates high longer or risk inflation that won’t quit.
Impact on Jobs, Bankruptcies, HousingHIRING
- When talk of recession fills the air, many bosses freeze new hires.
- That extra caution won’t reach every corner.
- Energy and defense firms often keep adding workers.
- Hospitality, travel, and a few retail shops usually suffer the most.
BANKRUPTCIES
- Tight credit can push small restaurants, airlines, and gift shops to the brink.
- Many observers think bankruptcy courts will get busy again if loans dry up.
HOUSING MARKET
- Rising interest rates scare off first-time buyers.
- Mortgage applications slide as monthly payments swell.
- Builders notice the drop and slow or shelve new projects.
- Prices still climb in strong towns, but weaker markets may watch values drop.
- Oddly enough, some investors rush cash into U.S. homes when global markets wobble.
- That flight to safety keeps the bigger cities warm even as smaller ones cool.
BOND MARKETS
- Whenever panic strikes, money hops into bonds, yanking yields down.
- Prices climb until investors remember inflation could spoil the party.
- Oil jumps, groceries spike, and suddenly, the long end of the curve ticks up.
- An inverted yield curve- the short rate beating the long one- screams recession fears again.
PRECIOUS METALS
- Wars and skirmishes send people to gold as moths find the flame.
- Prices recently nudged $2,500 per ounce and may climb higher if conflict spreads.
- Silver usually trails gold but then overreacts in the other direction.
- Some traders call crypto the new digital gold; others warn it flickers just as much.
Mortgage Markets, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates
- Mortgage rates are mostly tamed by where Treasury yields are headed.
- A quick dash to safe bonds has pushed those yields lower.
- That means, for a moment, we might see mortgage rates slip.
- Inflation refuses to stay tamed, though.
- If the price indexes jump one more time, lenders will have to raise mortgage quotes again.
- The ride won’t be smooth.
- Daily market mood swings force brokers to quote wider spreads to stay covered.
- With that extra padding, some shops pause jumbo and non-QM deals to catch their breath.
Recession Risks
- People are waking up to the likelihood of a much heavier recession load.
- Fresh supply-chain hiccups and sky-high energy bills are flirting with stagflation again.
- When that squeeze hits wallets, shoppers pull back, and sooner or later, companies take notice.
- Earnings slide, and layoffs follow.
- A growing chorus of economists warns that if the Israel-Iran clash worsens, we could tumble into a global downturn on par with 2008 or worse.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry
- Higher borrowing costs are already chilling home sales.
- Investors from overseas are hitting pause, and everyday buyers may back off when layoffs appear in the news.
- Home loans are drying up, and the mood in the mortgage space is jittery at best.
- Non-QM lenders are slashing risk buckets, and hard-money crews are slowing the flow to keep cash on hand.
- Most shops prefer to sit on liquidity rather than chase one last closing in a shaky market.
Impact on the Trump Administration, Republicans, Democrats, and the Nation
- Trump could seize on a new crisis, saying it proves Biden waivers on Iran and that America needs a firmer hand.
- Many Republicans are already sounding alarms, calling for beefed-up military aid to Israel and a harsher warning for Tehran.
- Inside the Democratic caucus, no one agrees to progress against Israel’s tactics.
- At the same time, centrists insist Tel Aviv has every right to protect itself.
- Voters in the middle who worry mostly about safety and gas prices might drift toward the GOP as the 2024 campaign heats up.
- On a broader canvas, partisan lines are likely to deepen.
- If fighting escalates, public protests could erupt across American cities.
Global Economic, Humanitarian, and Political Well-being
- Casualties among civilians in Iran or Israel won’t stay quiet.
- Social media outrage will spread almost in real time.
- Fighting that spills beyond borders almost always generates a stream of refugees, crowding nearby camps and border towns.
- Ships queued up in the Strait of Hormuz could sit idle for weeks, jacking up prices for everything from electronics to sneakers.
- Start talking embargoes, and you send nervous traders yanking dollars out of markets.
- Oil becomes cheaper, and every other stock gets shaky.
- Persian chessboards are crowded; Riyadh, Moscow, and Beijing all see openings to nudge their agendas forward.
- Diplomatically, the U.N. will sputter with vetoes while Brussels worries that Washington is too busy to listen to its advice.
Final Summary
- When Israel hits Iran, the shock feels like a massive earthquake.
- Every market wakes up a little rattled.
- Stock indexes drop almost overnight.
- Oil prices climb.
- New inflation worry.
- Wall Street whispers about slipping into recession.
- Mortgage lenders get jittery; spreads widen.
- Housing values face fresh pressure.
- Gold and silver catch a safe-haven bid.
- Bonds swing wildly as investors move fast.
- Political chatter heats up around the globe.
- One worst-case sketch mirrors the panic of 2008.
- If fighting cools off quickly, numbers could rebound in days.
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Two state lawmakers, Sen. John Hoffman and Rep. Melissa Hortman, and their spouses were shot in targeted attacks at their homes.