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GCA Forums News For Friday November 14 2025
GCA Forums News — National LIVE Report (Friday, November 14, 2025)
LIVE markets, mortgage rates, CPI/GDP context, housing impacts, repossessions, and 2025 election updates—including NYC’s mayor-elect—today.
LIVE Stock Market Update: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Friday trading was choppy after Thursday’s selloff. Midday movements included:
- The Dow Jones was fluctuating between a 0.4% and 1.2% decline after an 800-point drop the previous day.
- Intraday reversals helped mitigate some of the losses.
- The S&P 500 was fluctuating between gains and losses, while the Nasdaq was recovering some of its losses after tech stocks declined the previous day.
- The drop yesterday came after the odds of a December Fed rate cut dissipated.
- Takeaway: Volatility is elevated as traders handicap the Fed’s next move.
Observing the federal funds target rate of 3.75%–4.00% with recent cuts last October 29.
- For 10-Year Treasury bonds, the 4.08%–4.11% range has remained steady throughout the week.
- People expect a 50 -54% chance of December cuts to occur.
- Context: Caution remains regarding recent shutdown data due to irregularity patterns.
For Mortgage Rates And The Market
- Currently, PMMS has 30-year fixed rates at 6.24% and 15-year fixed rates at 5.49%, with both rates increasing for two consecutive weeks.
- According to the Daily Lender, the 30-year fixed rate remains steady in the low to mid-6 % range.
- Mortgage activity has a direct impact, increasing by about 0.6% week to week for the week ending November 7.
- Impact Definition: Though the Shutdown has ended and the FHA/VA/NFIP are functional, the closings finalized during the shutdown should be addressed in sequence.
- Forecast lens: If the 10-year rate stays around 4.0-4.2%, rate relief into the high 5s/low 6s is expected, accompanied by softer inflation and a clearer path for the Fed.
- Economics: EX Am GDP, CPI, Inflation, and Jobs Converting To Other States.
- GDP: BEA’s latest official print shows Q2 2025 real GDP +3.8% (annualized); Atlanta Fed GDPNow last showed 4.0% for Q3 (model).
- Inflation calendar and data gaps: The BLS schedule lists the CPI for October 2025, slated for release on November 13, but the shutdown disrupted the collection.
- Politicians have indicated that some reports for October may be incomplete or generated automatically.
- Jobs for the unemployed and employed: With official releases disrupted, a Chicago Fed model pegs October unemployment at 4.35%, unchanged.
- Bottom line: Data visibility remains inconsistent.
- Markets are trading more headlines and Fed speeches than hard prints.
- Auto Stress: Repos, Dealership, and Financing Strain, CarMax.
- Repossessions: Reports indicate a surge in repossessions compared to recent years.
- Some coverage cites levels approaching those of the Great Recession.
- Bankruptcies or closures: Subprime debt automobile lender-dealer Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy this fall.
- Broader sector credit risk has been flagged.
- CarMax (KMX): Stock nosedived after weak quarterly results and a changing of the guard.
- It keeps becoming headlines with litigation.
- Relevance to Mortgages: Rising delinquencies within auto loans have the potential to reduce the levels of DTI and Credit availability for borderline mortgage approvals.
LIVE Metals Watch: Gold Silver Prices
- Gold: Approximately $4,10X–$4,20X/oz midday, dollar movements and rate cut anticipations keep it on a sturdy weekly base.
- Silver: Worth $51/oz at present.
LIVE Election Politics: NYC Mayor-Elect, the Meaning of a Democratic Socialist
- New York City: According to various sources, Zohran Mamdani is projected to be the mayor-elect (general election: November 4, 2025) and will take office on January 1, 2026.
- His key platforms include rent freezes, free bus transit, a higher minimum wage, and increased taxation on the wealthy.
What is a Democratic Socialist?
To be left-oriented is a description of democratic socialism. It seeks a more socially owned economy and democracy, as stated in encyclopedias.
- A shift from capitalism is advocated by the DSA, wherein they want economic democracy and worker control, which will be achieved by democratic means.
- Important note on claims: As of now, there is no credible source describing that the NYC mayor-elect will remove all private property ownership.
- The public part of the platform has rent policies, free bus transit, higher taxes on the wealthy, childcare, and more, and it’s not simply abolishing all private ownership.
- We’ll continue to monitor the official documents of policies and the documents of the transitions.
LIVE Conservative Movement Watch: Turning Point USA / Erika Kirk / Mikey McCoy / VP JD Vance
- Leadership change: On September 10, because of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Erika Kirk became the new CEO & Chair of TPUSA.
- Public statements & media: Kirk has shared emotionally touching statements, and has participated in interviews by media who subsequently published her statements and a photo of her TPUSA event embrace with Vice President JD Vance that went viral. Her moment with the VP has even been framed in emotionally supportive reporting as grief.
- Speculation and online rumors, especially regarding her and the VP’s moment, are rampant.
- Mikey (Michael) McCoy, the TPUSA chief of staff, has engaged in media discussions regarding his coordination with Erika Kirk following the shooting and the next steps for the organization.
- Candace Owens: There are ongoing social media and press accusations, and many claims remain unproven, particularly regarding the most contentious topics.
- Please consider these, especially those that are single-source or speculative, with caution.
Housing & Mortgage Outlook: Affordability, Inventory, and the Fed
- Rates are 6.2-6.3%: Payments are higher, just like origination.
- However, origination is lower than the high levels seen in early 2025.
- The resumption of FHA/VA/NFIP operations should help alleviate the backlog from the shutdown, which has been a primary cause of the delays.
- The NAR reported that as of November 20, 2023, it was selling homes.
- Macro steering wheels: Inflation data and job reports will be available this year.
Quick Reference Numbers (as of November 14, 2025, midday)
- Dow / S&P / Nasdaq: Mixed to lower after Thursday’s plummet.
- 10-Year Treasury: 4.08–4.11%.
- Freddie Mac 30 / 15: 6.24 / 5.49% (week of November 13).
- Gold / Silver: 4,10X – 4,20X / 51 oz.
- GDP (latest official): Q2 +3.8% annualized; GDPNow last 4.0% for Q3 (model).
- Unemployment (model est.): 4.35% for October according to the Chicago Fed model (official data disruption).
- Mortgage Applications (MBA): 0.6% w/w (week ending November 7).
What This Means for Borrowers and Buyers (Actionable)
- Lock vs. float: With the cut odds near 50-50 and 10-year yields sticky at around 4.1%, borrowers within 30-45 days of closing may want to lock.
- For longer timelines, consider monitoring for softer data over late November. (Use along with your loan officer’s pricing.)
- DTI awareness: Auto loans/revolving balances are tightening to capture.
- Pay-down strategies can help to tier lower pricing.
Gustan Cho Associates — Company Updates
- We searched for Gustan Cho Associates and its subsidiaries in today’s public press releases and corporate announcements. We did not find any new items from authoritative wire services.
- If you have unread data updates available for dissemination, provide us with bullet points, and we will compile and design them with our ‘GCA Forums News’ branding, including Call To Actions and internal hyperlinks.
- We will continue scanning and will notice any updates that can be verified and include them in the upcoming LIVE.
Notes Regarding the Quality of the Data (Impacts from Shutdown).
- Due to the extended government shutdown, there are some gaps and/or altered schedules for some of the official series (CPI, jobs).
- When possible, we cited our sources, official calendars, model estimates, or well-regarded media, and provided clarity.
- As agencies stabilize the release of data, we will continue to monitor the information for needed updates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VGjFqT105U&list=RDNS8VGjFqT105U&start_radio=1
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This discussion was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by
Gustan Cho.
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