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GCA Forums News for Monday May 18 2025
GCA Forums News: National Headline News Overview for Monday, May 18, 2025
Trump Gives an Order for Prices of Medication to Be Slashed in the United States
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on May 12, 2025, which claimed to reduce drug prices by 60% with a new policy to slash pharmaceutical costs. This policy revives his first-term initiative that had stalled, directing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reimburse Medicare for office-based drugs (OBD) using the average cost-based reimbursement system of the bus pricing system, which is determined by the lowest-priced reimbursement value. It is a “high-cost” drug reimbursement system intended to mitigate long-standing grievances over the affordable pricing of medications that American consumers are subjected to. As adversarial as it may sound, it attempts to solve some pain points. Undoing the years of underpriced tiered pricing would be beyond complicated. There is doubt that these goals can be accomplished without some legislative confrontation or clearing up the complicated supply chain skepticism. While the anticipated outcome is positive, the concern is that the pharmaceutical manufacturers will either lie dormant in some “innovation depression,” skimp on supplying products, or ration innovation and streamline production, rendering health care services impotent. On the contrary, this is perceived as an audacious effort, enabling fulfillment of campaign promises in Trump’s focus on lowering healthcare expenditure.
Although no progress has been made or outcomes reported concerning the executive order, the last update was on May 18. The order specifics are still being discussed on a national level.
Increasing Dow Jones Industrial Average Together with Other Stock Market Indices
Since 2025, the US stock markets have witnessed wild fluctuations and enormous volatility caused by President Trump’s trade policies. As of May 18, the markets were moving upwards due to easing trade tensions. The United States and China reached a 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement on May 12, 2025, dramatically reducing tariffs on trade between the nations. This also marked the beginning of the increase in tariffs globally. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Index surged by 2.8%, equivalent to more than 1100 points. The rest of the S&P 500 Index gained 3.3%. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite was the champion for the day, gaining 4.3%, signifying hope in the retail and tech industries. Earlier in the year, when Trump proposed colossal tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports, there was panic in the markets due to the fear of recession. A trade deal with the UK, dated May 8, along with the reduction in tariffs, has fueled recovery. By early May, the Dow registered the longest winning streak of 2025. Still, like cautionary tales from analysts such as Paul Tudor Jones, macroeconomic headwinds like ongoing inflation and the Fed’s stance on interest rates add a long-term headwind to stock prices even when lower tariff barriers exist. This week, the Hang Seng Index and most other global markets gained 3 %. This concurrent Bitcoin boom also triggered a surge in prices for the cryptocurrency, surpassing the $100,000 mark. Although investor confidence is rising and gold prices are falling, Goldman Sachs forecasts inflation of around 3% for the remaining tariffs. These include additional price increases on used vehicles, appliances, and pharmaceuticals.
Latest News on the Mortgage Rates and Housing Sector
As of May 18, 2025, reports on the housing market show that home prices continue to increase, although there are issues in home affordability. As noted in the report dated April 29, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index reported an increase in home prices by 4.5% year on year for the period ending February 2025, down from 4.7% the previous month. Despite the decreasing demand from buyers compared to the previous years, the limited supply of homes is still propping up the prices. Mortgage rates remain high, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.81% as of the week before April 29, nearly the same as the previous week’s 6.83%. While no specific information was released regarding mortgage rates for May 18, the prevailing trend indicates that the rates are in the mid-6% region, which adds to the affordability problem. Volatility in the market, driven by tariff policies, brings some uncertainty. Some analysts argue that trade-driven inflation would push rates up even further. The absence of significant new housing policy announcements in the provided data suggests that the market is on pause—supply constraints combined with high rates continue to dominate the market.
ICE, Sanctuary Cities, and States
As of May 18, 2025, the available materials do not contain any specific headlines focusing on the activities of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) about sanctuary cities and states. This topic is not covered in detail anywhere else. With that being said, context from Trump’s interview on April 22, 2025, with TIME reveals that his administration is fully harnessed on immigration enforcement, attempting to go after “career criminals” and dealing with high crime rates caused by the previous administration. The missing paragraph provides Trump’s statements from the interview, which, in combination, imply some form of aggressive deportation policy that would certainly affect sanctuary jurisdictions.” Posts on X and other reports on the internet do not provide any concrete updates about ICE operations or actions taken against sanctuary cities and states before or on May 18. It is reasonable to assume that, because of the administration’s stated policies, there is likely friction with these jurisdictions. The range of sanctuary policies differs, and some, if not many, are designed to prevent local law enforcement from honoring ICE detainers, which may set up legal or policy disputes. Given the lack of data, it is fair to assume that the enforcement efforts by ICE are following Trump’s stated goals that have been reported lately, even though no developments have been reported on that date.
Further Remarks
Progress on Trade Policies:
Unlike the usual focus on healthcare and other industries, Trump’s policies always make headlines. The US-UK trade agreement and the reduced tariffs with China have alleviated fears of a recession. As a result, JPMorgan Chase has adjusted the probability of a US recession, dropping it from 60% to less than 50% in early April. Still, the ongoing negotiations with Canada and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership show the weakening relations, as Trump’s tariffs and appetite for annexation have not helped.
Overall Economic Expectations:
These concerns have become persistent between the continued optimism around the markets, the inflationary pressure of tax add-on tariffs, and the economic slowdown. Goldman Sachs has made a stark prediction that the prices of consumer goods are highly likely to surge in December 2025, which would reduce any gains made in the market.
Critical Judgement: It is clear from the first two parameters that the market is recovering rapidly, and the price cut expected from pharmaceutical companies stems from the tough policies enacted by Trump. The long-term impacts of these policies, however, are debatable. The so-called tariff truce is volatile, as with the pharmaceutical order, with site-based implementation complexities. There is also bound to be an escalation in the challenges surrounding housing affordability, enforcement of immigration policies, and debates on what was happening on the May 18 windows, because all of this has very, very meager data-driven estimations.
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