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GCA Forums News for Tuesday May 20 2025
GCA Forums Primary News Headlines Summary – May 20, 2025
Economic and Market News
Market Movement: Dow Jones Industrial Average
Starting from May 1, 2025, the U.S. stock indices, including the DJIA, are experiencing and foreseeing volatility due to the uncertain economic environment and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. On May 6, stocks waned as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were all in the red at the market open. Although specific figures of the DJIA on May 20 are unavailable, previous assessments showed an apprehensive market due to mixed economic signals and tariffs. For example, Palantir tech stocks plummeted 10.5% post earnings while some energy stocks gained mildly by 0.67%. The market context indicates volatility and continued sensitivity to Federal Reserve actions and trade policies. At the start of 2025, cryptocurrency markets had a strong spike, which reached new heights. Meanwhile, commodities such as oil dropped below $60 due to impending fears of a slow global economy.
10-Year Treasuries
As of May 14, 2025, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.5%, having risen from a brief dip below 4% earlier in the month due to market fluctuations relating to Trump’s tariffs. This yield reflects investor sentiment and is a key driver of mortgage rates, as fixed-rate mortgages often track the 10-year Treasury. The increase from 4.28% in early May to 4.5% has heightened market expectations of inflation and economic uncertainty, even with the Fed’s rate cuts in 2024. Lower Treasury yields boosted liquidity in the past, but the recent upward movement in yields shows rising caution among investors.
Rates of Interest and The Federal Reserve Board
For the third consecutive meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at 4.25%–4.5% during the FOMC meeting held on May 6-7, 2025. Chair Powell noted the uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs, stressing that sustained tariffs would likely result in higher inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment. The Fed’s March 2025 dot plot suggested two rate cuts in 2025, with the next FOMC meeting in June. Powell characterized current monetary policy as ‘modestly restrictive’, using a balance of growth and inflation control. Because the economy is highly susceptible to stagflation in the near term, the Fed seems to be adopting more of a wait-and-see approach.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation
As of April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 2.3% increase, marking the lowest annual increase since February 2021 and a decrease from March’s 2.4% figure. Monthly CPI increased by 0.2%, which is not aligned with economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase. Core CPI, which does not include food and energy expenses, grew by 2.8% compared to the previous year, remaining flat since March. Lower food inflation, especially the decrease in egg prices, down 12.7%, kept inflation low. However, shelter costs (rents and owners’ equivalent rent) also contributed greatly to the CPI, which grew by 0.3% to 0.4%. Economists are worried about Trump’s tariffs, 10% universal tax, and heightened tariffs on Chinese goods, predicting inflation to rise to 3.4% by the end of the year. The information available does not indicate a significant impact from the tariffs. Still, there is a consensus on price inflation during May and June.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate in the U.S. remained unchanged at 4.2% in April 2025 as employers created 177,000 new positions, demonstrating a steadfast labor market despite economic headwinds. The first quarter of 2025 experienced a contraction in GDP for the first time since 2022, partly owing to a sharp rise in imports, which exacerbated the trade deficit in anticipation of forthcoming tariffs. Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have noted rising concerns of greater unemployment if tariffs continue, which would impact economic growth. The overall labor market, however, is still strong.
Mortgage Rates and the Housing Market Update
Mortgage rates remain high, even with inflation slowing down. As of May 14, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.88%, an increase from 6.84% a week earlier, according to Bankrate’s lender survey. Freddie Mac reported a steady 6.76% for the 30-year fixed mortgage and a 15-year fixed mortgage of 5.89%. Mortgage rates are impacted more by investors’ demand for 10-year treasuries than by the actions of the Federal Reserve. The recent increase in treasury yields is keeping rates within 6.5%- 7%. In March 2025, the median existing home price was $403,700. With a monthly payment of $2,123 (assuming a 20% down payment and a 6.88% interest rate), this payment covered 26% of the family’s median income, which was $97,800. Demand surged in early May, but the overall buyer demand during April was sluggish, with buyers sitting on the fence because of economic uncertainties tied to tariffs, stock market volatility, and other geopolitical tensions. Agents report strong demand, but fewer deals have been closed.
Tariff Policies and Their Economic Effects
With a universal 10% tariff on all imports and increased duties on Chinese goods, such as 20% on fentanyl related imports and 25% on cars and light trucks, President Trump’s tariff policies have created a great deal of economic uncertainty. As of April 9, a 90-day pause on tariffs, except China, which still faces tariffs, has been announced. While economists expect price increases starting in the summer, the April CPI data shows limited tariffs’ impact, which could raise inflation and reduce GDP growth by 0.7%, while unemployment would increase by 0.4%. The U.S. and China agreed to lower mutual tariffs for 90 days, providing some relief. Nonetheless, the ongoing trade wars distort economic data, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make policy decisions.
The Political Front
Joe Biden: CANCER And Other Fabricated Stories
As of May 20, 2025, no credible evidence suggests Biden has cancer. Nevertheless, his political adversaries, Trump in particular, use cancer and other health issues to attack the sitting president. In one of his 2024 social media posts, Trump fantasized about Biden being “violently” tied up in a truck, suggesting he should “shut up”, which was labeled as psychotic. “Lies” associated with “Biden” are mostly from one’s imagination, have no cited source in recent articles, and tend to fall under the fiction category.
James Comey: Possible Changes to His ‘Deep State’ Alleged Activities and Arrest
James Comey’s May 15, 2025, Instagram post drew some attention. It featured seashells arranged to form the numbers “86 47.” Some posts are cryptic messages suggesting that President Trump could be removed, as the wording used is associated with slang used to “Trump 47”. When the Trump administration came to know about this, they claimed that Comey was inciting violence, which led them to initiate a Secret Service probe and later interview Comey on May 16. Comey denied the claims of violence, stating that he did not know about the number’s meanings; thus, he says that he eliminated the post after facing backlash. So far, no arrests have been made. All investigations have been made with the U.S. lawyer assessing whether the post is a chargeable threat. Many critics deem it an attack on free speech, citing incidents targeting law firms, students, and government officials opposing the president. Allegations of “deep state” related to Comey have been dubbed conspiratorial, fueled by Trump supporters, like Jack Posobiec, who claimed to have heard other similar coded phrases in 2022. There is no clear proof of the claims made in the sources.
Cities and States of Sanctuary
The preemption and enforcement policies relating to immigration issued by the Biden presidency – enforcement on non-citizen students who attended pro-Palestine rallies- make me think that eradicating these jurisdictions will indeed have some shed to sand. As for stances on sanctuary cities, it may result in immigration disputes with state and city governments, but up until now, there have been no updated reports of this matter. The May 20, 2025, report does not feature any new info on sanctuary states and cities. Also, the decree prohibiting students’ participation in social work relations will significantly contribute to this matter. As a part of these, no updates on the tough holding position have been reported since then.
More Other Notable News
In Global Economics News:
Australia has recently blown past its agreed target of 2% inflation in just 13 months, pushing the inflation rate to 7%. With the Retail bank meeting on the cash rate currently set at 4.1% on 19 – 20 May for the cash rate set review, RBA set expectations of 2.5% for inflation by 2027.
In Technology Investment News:
Over several years, Xiaomi plans to spend 7 billion dollars on smartphone chips, including the planned release on May 22, 2025, of their new flagship smartphones, including Xiaomi 15s and Pad 7 Ultra, which also contain the new Ring O1 chip. This is expected to put them head-to-head with Huawei and start their production in India.
Cautious optimism surrounded the economic landscape as of May 20, 2025. Still, uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs looms, as they threaten to slow growth and reignite inflation. Mortgage rates sit at 6.88%. Although inflation is calming at 2.3% CPI, the current housing market displays hesitation and concern. This reflects that the broader market, DJIA, and others are still volatile amid 10-year Treasury yields at 4.5%. Political concerns remain relevant as elevated tensions regarding free speech spike with the Comey investigation. Partisan divides deepen with unverified claims about Biden and “deep state” narratives, as sanctuary city policies stand as a possible flashpoint with no updates as of today. Federal Reserve actions alongside upcoming economic data tend to clarify prevailing trends, so GCA Forums members are advised to monitor them closely.
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