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GCA Forums News For Wednesday January 7 2025
GCA FORUMS NEWS – National Breaking News Report
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 (Market in the U.S. recap + late evening updates)
LIVE STOCK MARKET (Close)
U.S. stocks finished the day mixed as investors watched events in Venezuela, guessed about possible rate cuts, and sold off energy and financial stocks. Even tech stocks saw some selling.
- Dow Jones: 43,337.94 (-392.71 / -0.9%)
- S&P 500: 6,273.69 (-0.2%)
- Nasdaq: 20,630.59 (+0.2%)
Reuters reported that energy and large bank stocks saw the largest declines, while technology stocks remained more resilient.
Stock Market Data For SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
- The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the U.S. stock market.
- The current price is $689.58, up $2.19 (0.3%) from the previous close.
- The session opened at $692.17, with a trading volume of 75,588,337 shares.
- Today’s high was $693.96, and the low was $689.17.
- The last trade was made on Wednesday, January 7, at 7:15 p.m. CST.
LIVE BOND MARKET + U.S. TREASURIES (Daily official curve)
The yield curve is no longer upside down, with the 10-year Treasury rate now higher than the 2-year rate. This change is particularly significant when considering the likelihood of a recession or a market bubble.
U.S. Treasury Par Levels (Jan 7, 2026):
These par levels are estimates and may vary from actual values.
- 2-Year: 3.47%.
- 10-Year: 4.15%.
- 30-Year: 4.82%. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
For today, the Fed’s H.15 shows a 10-Year constant maturity of ~ 4.18%.
- The current Fed funds target range is 3.50% to 3.75%, with the upper bound at 3.75%. (Reuters)(upper bound shown): 3.75%. (This implies 3.50% – 3.75%)
- Bank Prime Rate: 6.75%. (Federal Reserve)
- Discount Window Primary Credit: 3.75%. (Federal Reserve)
Next major Fed Date: FOMC Jan 27 – 28, 2026. (Federal Reserve)
LIVE MORTGAGE RATES
NATIONAL AVERAGE – (today range)
Mortgage rates are still hovering well above their pre-2022 lows, now sitting in the low to mid-6 percent range.
- Mortgage News Daily (Jan 7): 30 Year Fixed ~6.19%. (Daily Telegraph)
- MBA Survey (Week Ending Jan 2): 30 Year Fixed ~6.25%. (MBA)
- Freddie Mac Weekly (As of Dec 31, 2025): 30-year Fixed ~6.15%. (Yahoo Finance)
Mortgage rates are influenced by Treasury yields, inflation, and the spread on mortgage-backed securities. With the 10-year yield in the low to mid-4 percent range, rates tend to stay above 6 percent unless those MBS spreads narrow.
Silver (spot)
According to several market sources, silver traded in the upper $70s today:
- ~$77.04/oz (morning snapshot)
- ~$79.39/oz (late evening snapshot)
No major sources confirmed that silver reached $82 or fell to $70 on January 7. The price remained in the upper $70s throughout the day. Reports of significant swings likely stem from outdated numbers, special retail prices, or rare trades when the market was slow.
Gold prices were elevated, with one spot feed showing mid $4,400s per ounce.
Now That Spot Prices Are Known, Several Trusted Silver Predictions For 2026 Are Being Shared
No one forecast stands alone, but several major financial players are calling for a bullish run in silver next year:
- UUBS projects silver to reach approximately $60 per ounce in 2026, according to a widely circulated outlook summary.
- J.P. Morgan research forecasts a trajectory toward $58 per ounce by Q4 2026.
Near-term volatility
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set to rebalance from January 8 to 14, which could trigger forced selling in silver and spark sharp price drops—even if the bigger trend still points remains upward.
Changes Made
This document is organized to highlight the most relevant information and has been crafted to follow the requested guidelines and direction for revision.
A simplified explanation of the term ‘Market Operator’ is provided below for readers:
- When silver hovers between $70 and $80, traders often brace for wild $5 to $10 swings as positions shift rapidly.
- Potential catalysts for higher silver prices include Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust demand from solar and electrification. On the other hand, risk-off moods, a stronger dollar, or recession fears could weigh on prices.
“If Big Banks Ever Short Silver: JPMorgan And The (Incomplete) Picture.”
What Evidence Can We Present?
- The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) reports the aggregate positioning of the various groups, including “Commercials,” “Managed Money,” and “Swaps Dealers.”
- Short positions in The Banks (short_positions) are net (e.g., “JPM is X% short”). There is no clean way for the public to cite this information on a day-to-day basis. COT is grouped, not by bank.
- What Happens Most Often?
- Online, one sees that commercial “shorts” are interpreted as being “hedges” for physical inventories, client flow, or OTC exposure, rather than a directional “bet” that the price must fall.
- JPMorgan’s and the precious metals market’s misconduct enforcement is not a new development (not the same as “a giant open short today”), including spoofing-related CFTC enforcement, if at all.
PAPER SILVER vs. PHYSICAL SILVER (clear, borrower-friendly explanation)
Paper silver (price exposure)
- COMEX futures contracts
- Silver ETFs and pooled/unallocated accounts
- Pros: fast liquidity, tight spreads, and easy to trade
- Cons: you are exposed to the rules and risks of the financial system, like how trades are settled, margin requirements, and who you are trading with
Physical silver (metal in hand / allocated)
- Coins or bars can be delivered and/or stored (or held physically)
- Pros: no counterparty risk once owned or allocated
- Cons: You pay extra for shipping, insurance, and storage, and the difference between buying and selling prices is bigger. There is also more paperwork and cost.
When silver prices rise, premiums on physical silver often increase, even if the spot price remains unchanged. This leads to two different prices in the market.
LIVE INFLATION + ECONOMIC BACKDROP (What’s moving markets)
- [Reuters] pointed out that “November CPI was ~2.7% YoY,” where officials also pointed out the lingering “tariff-related inflation risk” along with uncertainty due to the disruption of previous data.”
- The Fed’s internal debate has become more intense lately. Governor Stephen Miran said the policy is too strict and suggested bigger rate cuts by the end of this year.
Markets are watching for possible Fed rate cuts, but with inflation still high, the 10-year Treasury yield stays in the low to mid-4 percent range, which keeps mortgage rates high.
The housing market remains in the spotlight, with heated debate over whether a bubble is forming or if another 2008-style crisis could be on the horizon.
What looks bubbly
- Affordability remains a problem as prices and rates remain high. In many areas, there are more homes for sale, so buyers and sellers must negotiate more aggressively, and homes take longer to sell.
What looks different than 2008 (key point)
- Credit quality and home equity are generally better now. The risky lending practices that led to the 2006–2008 crisis are not present today.
- Delinquencies have increased, but the rise is concentrated among FHA and first-time homebuyers rather than the broader market.
Most Recent Stress Indicators
- MBA: Started foreclosure still low (about 0.20%) and delinquency rises to about 3.99% in Q3 2025.
- ICE (Nov 2025 “first look”): The delinquency rate is approximately 3.85%, with a significant influx of newly delinquent borrowers this past month.
- Investopedia mentioned that ARM shares about 10% of purchase loans recently. Experts mentioned better standards than those of 2008.
Most signs point away from a crash like 2008, but 2026 could still bring local market problems and more missed payments among buyers who are stretched thin. The number of purchase loans remains high, resulting in small profit margins. The market is competitive, and profits are low.
- Refinancing has dropped and is more affected by rates than ever. Rising taxes and insurance are increasing payments, causing more people to miss loan payments.
A key positive sign: Industry reports indicate that mortgage banking profits have improved following a challenging period. (The Mortgage Reports)
How Gustan Cho Associates & Subsidiaries Are Positioned: What We Can Say Publicly
While GCA’s financial details are not public, the group’s strategy of offering many types of loans, focusing on Non-QM loans, and keeping ‘no overlays’ helps brokers stay strong in tough markets.
How NEXA Mortgage Compares (Public Signal)
NEXA appears in high-production broker ranking lists for individual originators, such as a NEXA broker listed among the top 2025 mortgage brokers by volume, reflecting sustained growth.
AUTO INDUSTRY + AUTO FINANCING: Rates, demand, and 2026 outlook
Auto Financing (Current Consumer Reality)
- According to Bankrate’s weekly survey (last updated Jan 7, 2026), the average APR for a 60-month new car loan is ~7.01%.
- Data from late 2025 show further declines in affordability. About 20.3% of new-car buyers accepted monthly payments of $1,000 or more. The average new-car payment was $772, with an average APR of approximately 6.7%.
Cox Automotive expects approximately 15.8 million new cars to be sold in 2026, a decrease from last year. The main reasons are split-up markets and affordability issues, while new rules and electric car incentives are transforming the industry.
Multiple news sources confirm that Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured during the U.S. operation, which officials have framed as a law enforcement action.
- WSJ: The new DOJ legal justification was briefed to lawmakers.
- Reuters/Ipsos: Strike support in the U.S. was ~33%. Concerns about a potential escalation were widespread.
- Time: Public opinion still appears to be fragmented, and reports indicate that court proceedings are still pending.
- This story is still unfolding, with big questions looming for Congress, war powers, and the global oil market as events continue to shift.
MINNESOTA WELFARE FRAUD + GOV. TIM WALZ: What is rumor and what is fact
Confirmed / credible reporting today
- Minnesota has high-profile ongoing fraud cases (including “Feeding Our Future”), and the federal authorities are still active.
- ABC News: Gov. Tim Walz announced he will not seek re-election.
- Fox 9: Walz has not resigned and continues to deny the rumors about his resignation.
Not Confirmed
As of January 7, 2026, no credible reports indicate that Tim Walz has been indicted for welfare fraud or charged in connection with the referenced individuals. While fraud prosecutions, political accusations, and ongoing investigations exist, an indictment is a specific legal event that would be documented and reported. Suggesting otherwise would imply an unlikely conspiracy.
WISCONSIN: Judge Hannah Dugan’s “resignation” (what’s real)
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Judge Hannah Dugan is considering stepping down from the bench to potentially run for Milwaukee mayor. This is not the same as an immediate or effective resignation.
CHICAGO + “SANCTUARY CITY” UPDATE
Chicago remains at the center of the debate over sanctuary cities. Local reports focus on how the city is responding to possible federal immigration enforcement.
- NBC Chicago: Chicago is still referred to as a sanctuary city, and a legal/political standoff exists concerning federal control.
For people in Chicago, changes to policies could impact jobs, housing, and the city’s budget. If immigration rules get stricter, expect changes in the housing market, workforce, and local economy.
Current happenings: Trump, The Fed, and Trump’s top officials
Trump’s approval ratings
- As of early January 2026, Trump’s approval rating stands at 42%, as reported by Reuters, with the Venezuela operation sharply dividing the electorate.
- As of today, the average of polls in RealClearPolitics shows Trump’s approval rating in the mid-40s and disapproval rating in the low-50s.
Kash Patel, FBI Director
- Patel Kash was sworn in as FBI Director, as confirmed by FBI.gov (Feb 2025). [Federal Bureau of Investigations]
- In the case of Trump, Reuters mentioned Patel’s internal turbulence, and in public, Trump does not want to oust Patel after the case. [Reuters]
- The head of Mitch McConnell’s office, PBS, stated that the January deputy FBI director was in charge of the leadership turnover. [pbs.org]
Are Patel and Bondi “on the way out”?
So far, there have been no announcements about Patel or Bondi leaving their positions. Reports have focused on pressure and staff changes within the FBI.
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi
DOJ counts Bondi as Attorney General (Feb 2025 sworn in). [Department of Justice]
Fed Chair Powell
- Powell’s term as Chair ends May 15, 2026 (Fed said release).
- Activists discuss replacement for Powell; public debate on substitutes and political pressure for rate cuts are documented by the WSJ and Reuters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CiV6G7qOvY
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This discussion was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by
George.
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This discussion was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by
Sapna Sharma.
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1 Reply
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Price of silver broke $90.00 per ounce today
It is at $93.00 per ounce
Great 👍 News. It’s holding strong 💪 and the momentum is where silver has strong potential of breaking $1,000 per ounce
Those who don’t hold silver, its time to load up with as much physical silver as possible. Many are saying its too late and silver went up too high. I thinks its a Golden Opportunity to buy silver at today’s price l. What difference does it make if silver goes over $1,000 per ounce.
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