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Mortgage Rates Plummeting After FED NEWS
Mortgage Rates are finally dropping fast. JEROME POWELL, The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board announced yesterday the Feds will not be increasing interest rates for the past two Fed meeting which caused mortgage rates to plummet. The 10 year treasuries started plummeting the past few days from a high of 5.0% to 4.66%
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12 Replies
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This is great news. 👍 Does this affect Mortgage Rates on commercial loans
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The change in the interest rate after the Feds cut down on their rates could explain the increase in rates on mortgages and treasuries. This is due to market behavior as well as economic factors, which include:
Market Expectations
Future Rate Hikes: Even though the Fed is no longer cutting rates, this does not mean that economic activity is not active. If the Fed cuts rates, the market is always expecting an inflation rate or growth, so when setting investors’ timing with expansionary policies, it is reasonable to set the timing late.
Inflation Concerns
Persistent Inflation: Many economists anticipate inflation will be affected if the purchasing power for constant use is maintained by weaving in higher bond yields. Even investors might want this to protect their assets.
Supply and Demand:
Increased Bond Supply: An increase in bond supply might result from increased government borrowing or expenditure, which creates a high demand for higher yields but lower treasury prices. In the long term, this would certainly raise the mortgage presidential election.
Economic Indicators
Positive Economic Data: A reduction in bond rates would lead to the Fed increasing its lower requirements rate, which could be a consequence of an increase in job rates and higher levels of consumer spending, which could altogether change the market pointers.
Market Sentiment
Investor Sentiment: Changes in investors’ thoughts and feelings over time might cause them to struggle with bond prices and yields. Investors tend to feel that there is uncertainty or likely volatility, which can affect rates of interest.
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Spending Yield Curve: On the other hand, it can also be true that if an increase in long-term rates accompanies the cut in short-term rates, the yield curve can steepen. This further means that despite the Fed attempting to lower short rates to boost the economy, other factors determine long rates.
To sum up, even though the Fed’s cuts aim to ensure economic growth, several market forces might result in a rise in interest. These include expectations of future rate increases, speculation about inflation, constraints on the supply of bonds, and the state of the economy. This might give insight as to why rates might increase even when cuts have been made.
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Can you explain the relationship between inflation and bond yields in more detail?
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On many occasions, particularly during interviews, I am asked questions about economics and its impact on the investment sectors.
Here is my working definition of investment:
Purchasing a good or service at a low price now and selling it at a higher price later. When a company decides to invest in an asset, it directly translates to an increased debt that it intends to pay back through earnings. Given this understanding, there remains a strong correlation between inflation and the performance of an investment portfolio. Allow me to delve deeper.
The economic background
Bond Yields: Whenever one invests in bonds, he or she expects a certain amount of returns at a future date. This is what is called bond yields and is usually denominated in percentage terms. It is worth noting that bond yields are an inverse function of bond prices. Generally, when the price of the bond increases, the yield decreases, and when the price decreases, the yield increases.
Inflation: On the other hand, when purchasing power is devalued, this devaluation is referred to as inflation. Usually, inflation is expressed in percentage terms, and if we look at measures of inflation, it is evident that the Federal Reserve was targeting a specific inflation goal to ensure the economy remained stable.
The connection between Inflation and Bonds Yield
Future Inflation Expectations
Greater Inflation Expectations: It becomes understandable why inflation correlates with interest rates, as it alters the demand for investments. For instance, if investors foresee inflation increasing over time, they expect to receive more than the initial amount they invested, causing them to demand higher bond yields. This is quite evident as inflation depreciates the value of future dollars, whether the interest paid over the debt or the paid-back principal amount.
Nominal Wages vs. Real Wages: The first type is the Bond Yield, which does not account for inflation. Nominal wage refers to the amount of money owed to a bondholder, as this is the amount a bondholder can expect to receive after a bond’s maturity. The other type is the Real Rate of Return, which is basically what the Nominal Yield accounts for, meaning inflation. Every investor aims to receive at least a positive real rate to mitigate the risk of underperformance.
When inflation rates rise, the real yield reduces unless and until the nominal yields increase. Further inflation will mean even higher nominal yields, which will be unfavorable for investors seeking returns.
Policies of the Central Bank
Interest Rate Changes: The Central Bank is said to increase policy rates to subdue high inflation. At a higher policy rate, new bonds would attract issuers.
Bond market behavior: On the contrary, if the expectation is that there will be a forward shift in the Fed rates owing to inflation, the market will begin liquidating its holdings of existing low-yield bonds, leading to a fall in their price and rise in the yield.
Inter-relationships in the Market
Inflation Increase Anticipation: Investors could dispose of their existing bonds in exchange for different bonds with a better hedge against the forecasted inflation. This triggers a downward trend in prices and upward momentum in yields.
Securities with Inflation Protection: Bonds whose coupon rate equals the housing index as TIPS does. When the theory of inflation rises in the future, the supply of these bonds will also rise.
The inverse relationship between inflation and bond yield is one of the very fundamental features of the financial markets. As inflation expectations are high, investors tend to think of bonds as an avenue for investment as they expect higher yields to compensate them for their loss of purchasing power. However, bond yields tend to be lower when inflation is low or stable. This dynamic is crucial in formulating investment strategies, monetary policy, and economic well-being. Understanding this relationship assists in filling the gap for both investors and policymakers in a volatile economic environment.
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Can you give examples of how central banks use bond yields to control inflation?
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Bond yields are one of central banks’ strategies to keep inflation in check by implementing monetary policy strategies. A few of them are elucidated below:
Specifying Capital Rates
Policy Rate Changes: The Federal Reserve and others set short-term interest rates, such as the federal funds rate, for uniformity and rooting guidance. Central banks can raise these rates if inflation gets out of control to stabilize the economy.
Example: If the inflation rate surpasses the central bank’s desired rate, they would opt for American banks’ federal funds Target rate and adjust accordingly. This ultimately results in the emission of new bonds, which tend to have a higher interest rate than before.
This is what we term Open Market Operations.
Sale and Purchase of Government Bonds: Capital is essential in financing all forms of economic activity, and if inflation remains high, the need to sell government bonds arises to mitigate its effects.
Example: To suit inflation rates, the central bank could decide to sell government bonds. With such an operation, the volume of money in circulation would drop, causing the money’s worth to heighten, which translates to a lower bond price level. The high cost of yields will subject lending to extremely high costs, making spending and investment prohibitively high.
Quantitative Easing and Tightening
Quantitative Easing (QE): In periods of lower inflation or when deflation occurs, governments might buy huge amounts of government bonds, which would bring down the bonds’ yields, thereby aiding in borrowing and spending.
Example: The Fed used QE to purchase Treasury securities to depress yields and foster lending during and after the 2008 economic downturn. Economists assert lower yields stimulate economic activity and help raise inflation to the target level.
Quantitative Tightening (QT): However, if inflation is the problem facing the economy, central banks may shrink their balance sheets through bond sales or letting them mature, which increases their yields.
Example: The rise in inflation might force the Fed to use QT policies to reduce the money flow in the economy, thus raising yields and imposing more stringent financial conditions.
Forward Guidance
Making Public Effective Policy Decisions: There are several cases when a policy is instituted in which central banks focus on committing their policies towards giving their expectations against the future concerning inflation and interest rates through forward guidance.
Example: An effective announcement by a central bank addressing the need to foster future rate increases, movements in inflation expectations, and current bond yields will increase investor yields even before the actual rate bump increases.
Note:
- Inflation-Linked Securities
- Inflation-Protected Securities
Describe Roth-era central banks making bond sales for monetary control. For instance, treasuries may issue bonds considering the inflation yield; TIPS is a bond type.
Example: Investors predicting an inflating economy may lead to increased purchases of TIPS, which will make total bond yields even lower. This can, in turn, reveal to the market probable annual inflation, which may dictate how a central bank policies.
In addition to bond currency systems such as TIPS articles 101, Sections 1 and 2, primary wealth reserves may be created through bond currency alongside forward guidance and policy intervention reserves. States employ key strategies(such as interest rate changes, bond repurchases, and inflation-related issues) to overcome economic downfall. Hopefully, the reader now understands one part of how the economy works.
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What are the limitations of using bond yields to control inflation?
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Applying bond yields for inflation control has a few caveats that make the efficacy of the monetary policy a bit challenging. The following are some key limitations that should be noted:
Lagged Effects Delayed Impact: Bond yield and interest rate changes don’t instantaneously affect the economy. There is often a time lag in which some effect is recognized and translated into consumer, business, and even inflationary rates.
Market Expectations Uncertainty and Volatility: The market, which also remains volatile, greatly affects and determines bond yields. Suppose investors have an inaccurate expectation of future inflation or the state of the economy. In that case, this might result in some volatility in bond yields that do not comply with the central banks’ predictions.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies: Even when the central bank believes that inflation is erratic but the market expects that it will be consistent, bond yields are likely to rise in speculation, reversely affecting the monetary policy intentions.
Global Influences External Factors: Foreign economic relations, global threats, and other foreign policies directly affect bond yields and, at times, overshadow domestic policies. For instance, a global economic event will result in a sell-off and investments in U.S. government bonds, thus lowering the yields despite inflation.
Economy Restructuring
Changes in Bonds and Inflation: The bonds and inflation ratio can be distorted owing to major changes in the structure of economies, such as those brought about by advanced technology or shifts in consumer dynamics. These shifts can make some aspects of monetary policy ineffectual.
Debt Numbers
Debt to Public: A Large Degree In situations where public debt is high, the accumulation of bonds may raise the yield basis for borrowing by the constituencies. In many cases, borrowing is done solely to avoid the “crowding out” effect when the public spending parameters increase, merging the interest rates without improving inflation control.
Transmission Mechanism Inefficiencies
Inefficiency on the Borrowers’ Side: If the banks do not agree to lower their rates for consumers, any adjustment of the bond yields may be less effective. Add this borrowing may not increase due to strict lending policies, and even a drop in yields would not lead to an increase in spending.
Dealing with Inflation
What Sighted in the Market Place: If the expectation towards inflation is untethered, it leads to long-term inflation irrespective of the bond returns. The issue that central banks need help with re-anchoring inflation is convincing businesses and consumers that the inflation will decrease.
Policy Limitations
Few Options Available: The policymakers’ options depend on the economic order. For instance, traditional rate cuts are ineffective when interest rates are close to 0.
Monetary policy is not based on pet inflation targets but rather on bond yields as they are a more standpoint measure. Their usefulness can be diminished by timing factors (delayed effects), expectations (as in the case of the forward guidance), other economies and integration within the global economy, big structural changes in the real economy, the transmission of the central bank policies distortions, and, of course, over-indebtedness. Knowing these drawbacks is crucial for policymakers in formulating incisive strategies to cut inflation and foster economic boosts.
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How can central banks mitigate the lagged effects of bond yield adjustments?
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As a means of alleviating the delayed consequences resulting from shifts in bond yields, central authorities have recourse to various methods. Some of them include:
Forward Guidance
Communication Is Key: Central banks can change investors’ sentiments and alter bond yields and activity levels by effectively communicating their expectations on the monetary policy that will be implemented in the future. This aids investors’ strong view of the bank’s intentions and results in immediate changes in bond yields and activity levels.
Setting Specific Goals: To set goals for specific objectives such as inflation or employment, the market’s expectations can be directed closer to the central authority’s set goals.
Gradual Adjustments
Gradual Revisions: Rather than making drastic changes to the rates from the onset, the changes can be made progressive by using a set of rules that allow the progressive changes to happen. This means preconditions the financial markets to prevent abrupt dislocations that lead to destabilized economic and financial conditions that can result in destabilized bond yields.
Economic Response Changes: Using a base of economic monitors, the central banks will be able to make subtle changes to the data to avoid introducing time lags.
Enhanced Data Analysis
USING CURRENT DATA: Central banks have access to current data, which is useful for making decisions in the present and relevant for responding to changes in the economy, which in return reduces any lag effects.
Modeling and Forecasting: More advanced economic models are being developed, which, in the past, considered the possible lag effects. These models would permit better forecasting and be useful for central banks to be proactive.
Quantitative Easing (QE)
Asset Purchases: Central banks also have the option of QE via buying longer-term securities besides interest rate changes. This can cut long-term rates more easily and quicker and boost the economy as a response to the time lag of traditional rate changes.
Use of Multiple Tools
Combination of Policies: Monetary policy can be more productive if central banks employ several policy options, such as interest rate changes, QE, and liquidity management. This comprehensive response can help respond to diverse economic situations at once.
Supporting Financial Conditions
Liquidity Provisions: A sufficient amount of market liquidity can help tighten the degree to which policy lag flaws are experienced. The repo system or standing facilities with banks may exercise such authority.
Collaboration with Other Institutions: Consolidation with other financial institutions, including banks, investment firms, and others, in fostering the adequate expectational holdover of policy change may lessen the lag.
Maintain Emphasis on Canonical Inflation Predictions
Stan – Aligning Expectations, Communication, and Credibility: Controlled inflation expectations could be achieved by controlled inflation targeting over a longer period, which could also lead to more vigorous bond marketing actions and reduce delays from the effects. The President and the Governors have inflation targets that they are committed to achieving. This could help tone down their excitement, which could, in turn, ease the backs.
As followers of new concepts in communication and changing its focus on demand-building areas, the international monetary fund could be a resounding success, provided the fundamental question is attended to, which makes the bond market yields unwind and thus, lagged effects could be avoided. Ceteris paribus capabilities would include a broader set of instruments to make the target sections of the economy more sensitive to the relevant policies. These foster a more reactive form of being in the economy, reducing the period of dealing with changing fundamentals.
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What are some examples of central banks successfully mitigating these lags?
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Throughout to contain, central banks the delayed repercussions of the change in bond yields and other monetary policy measures. A few of these include:
Federal Reserve During the 2008 Financial Crisis
Forward Guidance: The Fed explicitly stated that it would pursue a long-term low-interest rate policy, which was another aspect of its strategy during forward guidance. As a result, it instilled market cues prompting borrowing and investing in spite of a lagging economic response.
Quantitative Easing (QE): The Great Recession saw the Fed begin several rounds of unprecedented bond-buying programs, initiating large purchases of government treasury bills and mortgage debt. By doing so, they ensured that long-term rates fell far quicker than if they were done through rate cuts encompassing a direct impact on economic activity and weakening the time it would take for the economy to recover.
Bank of England (BoE) and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Immediate Rate Cuts: The BoE mirrors the rate cuts presented by the Federal Reserve. The Central Bank was quick to cut rates during the pandemic as a response to economic shocks in March 2020. Their attempts were to solve lending issues and boost recovering economic activity.
Asset Purchase Program: In addition, the BoE raised the size of the asset purchase program, which included corporate and government bonds, to provide liquidity to the economy. This, in effect, eased yields and contributed to the stabilization of financial markets.
The Role of Other Policies in Response to the Eurozone Debt Crisis: The European Central Bank:
Revolving Credit: Due to the Eurozone debt crisis, the central bank organized LTROs to allow banks to obtain long-term loans at a lower interest rate. This would curb the lag between the bank’s ability to provide liquidity and its subsequent provision of credit to consumers and firms.
Abolished QE Caps: Under the same remit, the ECB’s monetary policy czars have also enhanced cross-border QE programs and bought a large amount of government and, most likely, corporate bonds, which sufficed the needs of investment across the Eurozone.
BOJ and a Deflationary Environment
Negative Interest Rate: In 2016, the BOJ took a negative interest rate approach to include more expenditures instead of savings. Such an unusual approach was expected to be fruitful, as it provided immediate economic stimulus against a backdrop of chronic deflation and slow economic growth.
Extreme QE: To bring about change, the BOJ has also undertaken extreme quantitative easing, purchasing a plethora of Japanese bonds and equities. This, in turn, has considerably depressed the yield and sought to accelerate other forms of economic activity in the same way as inserting traditional methods.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) during recessions
Combined Monetary Tools: The RBA has traditionally resorted to a mixture of interest rate cuts and forward guidance and started using quantitative easing, among other things, when trying to deal with an economic slump. For example, in 2020, notwithstanding the pandemic, the RBA reduced its rates and procured bonds to keep the economy noisy and avert the slow pace of recovery.
All these egregious examples portray how the stage delays getting effects of an economic policy were successfully alleviated and eradicated with the imaginative use of forward guidance graphical representation, quantitative easing QE, and other instruments designed for the ever-changing economic conditions. They did so by taking swift action and using a multifaceted approach. This enabled those bodies to call their countries’ economies in order and have the aftermath of their measures felt much earlier than had been the case.
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