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GCA Forums News For Saturday November 15 2025
GCA Forums Update — National LIVE (Saturday, November 15 2025)
This is live streaming data, so there are no charts or graphs, and no weekend updates from the bourse. The data below is from previous updates, not live data. U.S. Markets LIVE Updates and Reviews
Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq – Friday, November 14 closing values
- Dow Jones closed at 47,147.48 (down 309.74, a decrease of 0.70%).
- For the entire week, there was a 0.3% increase.
- S&P 500 closed at 6,734.11 (decreased 0.1%).
- Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,900.59 (up 0.1%).
Tech was able to stabilize after it was severely sold down the previous day. There is an ongoing debate in the market regarding the durability of earnings from AI capex.
LIVE Borrowing Costs, Interest Rates, Treasury Yields, and Mortgage Rates
- 10-Year Treasury Yield (Friday, November 14): 4.14%.
- Freddie Mac PMMS 30-yr FRM 6.24%, 15-yr FRM 5.49% (week of November 13).
- Conclusion on the mortgage market: The 10-year mortgage pricing is currently around 4.1%, maintaining mortgage pricing in the mid-6% range, as a move in the treasury data is expected next week.
- Live Global Macroeconomics: GDP, Prices, Jobs, and the Unemployment Rate.
- GDP: The most recent report on GDP is Q2 2025 (real GDP: 3.8%, with the next quarter’s estimates yet to be determined.
- Inflation (CPI): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers is expected to rise 0.3% from August 2025 to September 2025 and 3% from September 2024 to September 2025.
- Labor Market: As of the last reading from the BLS, there were 4.3% of people unemployed and 22,000 noncompleted non-affected jobs.
- The government shutdown impacted the data, and the estimate from the Chicago Fed predicts that the October 2023 unemployment rate is approximately 4.4% (rounded to the nearest whole number), based on data from August.
- Why some October data are missing: The 43-day federal shutdown meant people we employed had not been working for 43 days.
- Due to this, we were unable to provide people with the data we would normally provide them.
- We were able to get some data from the people we employed.
LIVE Housing and Mortgage Market Update:
- Home Sales: Existing home sales are scheduled to be released on November 20, 2023, and we estimate that they will be approximately 4.06 million, a rise of about 415,200 (which is a record for sales of any home in September 2023) and 1.5% higher than the preceding month.
- Starts: The most recent report available is from August 2023, which indicates approximately 1.307 million SAAR for apartments and 890 single-family units.
- Forecasts: Zillow projects around 4.07 million existing homes, meaning the NAR could reach around 2025, and also indicates that there would be an average 30-year mortgage of about 6%.
- Bottom line for buyers/sellers: There is a sense of demand, with rates higher than they would normally be.
- However, the prices mean that homes are not particularly affordable.
Auto Sector Live Events, Flexible Sector of Prices, Repossessions, and Dealer Stress:
- Auto Delinquency: There are approximately 2.05% of 60-day or longer delinquencies,
- Subprimes are about 7.6%.
- The trend is that there are far more delinquencies than there were last year.
- However, the number of severely delinquent accounts is stable or even decreasing.
- Subprime snapshot (Fitch via trade press): 6.65% subprime delinquency in October (increase vs. Sept).
- Repos Trend: Cox indicates repossession rates have returned to 2019 levels in 2025.
- Car Prices: Average new car $48,841 in 2025.
- Still near record levels.
- CarMax: Multiple opp headwinds in 2025.
- Management changes announced on November 6 and misses to prior quarters have put pressure on the stock.
- Not losing billions in net income based on recent filings and estimates (FY2025 net income $0.5B).
Summary
Most stress in the auto credit sector is in the subprime segment, and the results for dealers are mixed; prices are higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Policy Consideration-50-Year Mortgage: What It Means
- Current Position: President Trump brought up the idea of 50-year mortgages.
- Leadership at the FHFA is considering possibilities, but no official program is in place.
- There is a sharp divergence between analysts and industry associations.
- Payment Implications: Independent studies estimate that monthly home payments for a median-priced home would be $100–$160 less than a 30-year mortgage.
- However, the interest would be higher, it would take longer to build equity, and the debt would be longer.
- Major Limitations: Dodd-Frank/ATR-QM rules cap terms at 40 years for QM, so federally backed loans would likely require changes to the rules.
(Notes on the analysis describe the legal obstacles.)
Perspective on GCA from buyers and homeowners:
- Lower monthly payments help increase qualification and DTI levels, but interest costs rise sharply, and equity builds at a slower rate.
- The refinancing and exit timeline strategies become imperative.
MONEY WATCH: The Stimulus / Tariff Dividend-$2,000-What’s True?
- Proposal: The administration has discussed a $2,000 “tariff dividend” targeted at middle- and lower-income earners.
- Speculation on income cutoff points has occurred.
- No checks are being cut.
- A finalized congressional plan exists.
WASHINGTON
- The Deal What It Did, and Did Not, Accomplish: The Shutdown Ends.
- Shutdown Period: 43 days, closing on the official November 12 with President Trump’s signature on the funding bill.
- The government is funded through January 30.
- Back pay is reinstated.
- What the Democrats Obtained: The bill is framed by GOP leaders as a clean CR with no major policy wins on the Democrats’ side (e.g., no extension of ACA subsidies).
- Coverage from several sources confirms that the Democrats omitted the extension from the deal.
ELECTION WATCH New York City’s New Mayor-Elect and What Democratic Socialists Stand For
- Result: Zohran Mamdani (Democratic Socialist) won the mayoral election in New York City (NYC) on November 4 and will take office on January 1, 2026.
- Reported vote share around 50%.
- Platform: Rent freezes, free bus fare, higher taxes on the rich, childcare for the public/people, and groceries owned by the city are all crucial for his career.
- Democratic Socialist: Socially and politically, a democracy leaning toward people having and controlling a lot of the centrally managed resources and the country having a lot more welfare.
- However, in practical terms, the US typically adheres to the European social democracy definition rather than full state control.
Note:
- We have found no verified public policy of Mamdani proposing the elimination of all private ownership.
- He promotes public control of social services and rent, as well as progressive taxation, but this does not involve the elimination of private property, which remains the focus of social policy.
MEDIA & MOVEMENTS: Turning Point USA / Candace Owens / Erika Kirk / VP JD Vance
- The aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s death leaves coverage of TPUSA volatile and contentious.
- Several counterclaims and social posts, most of which are ungrounded and under investigation. (Not endorsing, just highlighting):
- Owens made several claims and statements concerning TPUSA, which TPUSA-aligned and other influential people have disputed.
- Depending on the accuracy of the reports, tabloids and international outlets have disseminated information speculatively, which should be treated as unreliable until there is direct information from law enforcement.
Reports on Erika Kirk’s and Vice President JD Vance’s interactions and public engagement vary in quality, with very little independent verification.
Editor’s note: We are not going to publish any unsubstantiated personal allegations. We will only update with verified information and named sources.
QUICK HITS
- Bitcoin/Gold: Weakening risk assets affected both Bitcoin and Gold.
- A safe both asset bids and weakness in gold.
- Housing into year-end: Projections are calling for a slight improvement in sales, accompanied by a reduction in interest rates.
- Yet, affordability will continue to be a very large barrier.
GCA and Subs Here are the Updates
In today’s public filings and press releases, we have no information on Gustan Cho Associates or its subsidiaries. Additionally, we have not received any updates from you, so we will not be able to incorporate any updates into the presentation. We will immediately provide updates with quotes and internal hyperlinks if you provide bullet updates to us. We have videos, new products, the opening of new branches, significant closings, and funding information.
What Today’s News Means for Borrowers & Buyers-Actions
- Lock/Float: The 10-year rate is approximately 4.1%, with the 30-year FRM at approximately 6.24%.
- If you are within the 30 days and need certainty, consider short-term locks.
- Otherwise, be on the lookout for the data and calendar for rate catalysts.
- YCharts Affordability: Inventory is marginally improving, but the price and DTI pressure are present.
- Identify seller credits, buy-downs, or assumable as options.
- AP News Auto Loans: If you are borderline, you can expect auto underwriting to be tighter than usual, given the rise in subprime delinquencies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxPQvIi2F-0&list=RDNSJxPQvIi2F-0&start_radio=1
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