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GCA FORUMS NEWS – National Breaking News Report

Wednesday, January 7, 2026 (Market in the U.S. recap + late evening updates)

LIVE STOCK MARKET (Close)

U.S. stocks finished the day mixed as investors watched events in Venezuela, guessed about possible rate cuts, and sold off energy and financial stocks. Even tech stocks saw some selling.

• Dow Jones: 43,337.94 (-392.71 / -0.9%)
• S&P 500: 6,273.69 (-0.2%)
• Nasdaq: 20,630.59 (+0.2%)

Reuters reported that energy and large bank stocks saw the largest declines, while technology stocks remained more resilient.

Stock Market Data For SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

• The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the U.S. stock market.
• The current price is $689.58, up $2.19 (0.3%) from the previous close.
• The session opened at $692.17, with a trading volume of 75,588,337 shares.
• Today’s high was $693.96, and the low was $689.17.
• The last trade was made on Wednesday, January 7, at 7:15 p.m. CST.

LIVE BOND MARKET + U.S. TREASURIES (Daily official curve)

The yield curve is no longer upside down, with the 10-year Treasury rate now higher than the 2-year rate. This change is particularly significant when considering the likelihood of a recession or a market bubble.

U.S. Treasury Par Levels (Jan 7, 2026):

These par levels are estimates and may vary from actual values.

• 2-Year: 3.47%.
• 10-Year: 4.15%.
• 30-Year: 4.82%. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

For today, the Fed’s H.15 shows a 10-Year constant maturity of ~ 4.18%.

• The current Fed funds target range is 3.50% to 3.75%, with the upper bound at 3.75%. (Reuters)(upper bound shown): 3.75%. (This implies 3.50% – 3.75%)
• Bank Prime Rate: 6.75%. (Federal Reserve)
• Discount Window Primary Credit: 3.75%. (Federal Reserve)

Next major Fed Date: FOMC Jan 27 – 28, 2026. (Federal Reserve)

LIVE MORTGAGE RATES

NATIONAL AVERAGE – (today range)

Mortgage rates are still hovering well above their pre-2022 lows, now sitting in the low to mid-6 percent range.

• Mortgage News Daily (Jan 7): 30 Year Fixed ~6.19%. (Daily Telegraph)
• MBA Survey (Week Ending Jan 2): 30 Year Fixed ~6.25%. (MBA)
• Freddie Mac Weekly (As of Dec 31, 2025): 30-year Fixed ~6.15%. (Yahoo Finance)

Mortgage rates are influenced by Treasury yields, inflation, and the spread on mortgage-backed securities. With the 10-year yield in the low to mid-4 percent range, rates tend to stay above 6 percent unless those MBS spreads narrow.

Silver (spot)

According to several market sources, silver traded in the upper $70s today:

• ~$77.04/oz (morning snapshot)
• ~$79.39/oz (late evening snapshot)

No major sources confirmed that silver reached $82 or fell to $70 on January 7. The price remained in the upper $70s throughout the day. Reports of significant swings likely stem from outdated numbers, special retail prices, or rare trades when the market was slow.

Gold prices were elevated, with one spot feed showing mid $4,400s per ounce.

Now That Spot Prices Are Known, Several Trusted Silver Predictions For 2026 Are Being Shared

No one forecast stands alone, but several major financial players are calling for a bullish run in silver next year:

• UUBS projects silver to reach approximately $60 per ounce in 2026, according to a widely circulated outlook summary.
• J.P. Morgan research forecasts a trajectory toward $58 per ounce by Q4 2026.

Near-term volatility

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set to rebalance from January 8 to 14, which could trigger forced selling in silver and spark sharp price drops—even if the bigger trend still points remains upward.

Changes Made

This document is organized to highlight the most relevant information and has been crafted to follow the requested guidelines and direction for revision.

A simplified explanation of the term ‘Market Operator’ is provided below for readers:

• When silver hovers between $70 and $80, traders often brace for wild $5 to $10 swings as positions shift rapidly.
• Potential catalysts for higher silver prices include Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust demand from solar and electrification. On the other hand, risk-off moods, a stronger dollar, or recession fears could weigh on prices.

“If Big Banks Ever Short Silver: JPMorgan And The (Incomplete) Picture.”

What Evidence Can We Present?

• The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) reports the aggregate positioning of the various groups, including “Commercials,” “Managed Money,” and “Swaps Dealers.”
• Short positions in The Banks (short_positions) are net (e.g., “JPM is X% short”). There is no clean way for the public to cite this information on a day-to-day basis. COT is grouped, not by bank.
• What Happens Most Often?
• Online, one sees that commercial “shorts” are interpreted as being “hedges” for physical inventories, client flow, or OTC exposure, rather than a directional “bet” that the price must fall.
• JPMorgan’s and the precious metals market’s misconduct enforcement is not a new development (not the same as “a giant open short today”), including spoofing-related CFTC enforcement, if at all.

PAPER SILVER vs. PHYSICAL SILVER (clear, borrower-friendly explanation)

Paper silver (price exposure)

• COMEX futures contracts
• Silver ETFs and pooled/unallocated accounts
• Pros: fast liquidity, tight spreads, and easy to trade
• Cons: you are exposed to the rules and risks of the financial system, like how trades are settled, margin requirements, and who you are trading with

Physical silver (metal in hand / allocated)

• Coins or bars can be delivered and/or stored (or held physically)
• Pros: no counterparty risk once owned or allocated
• Cons: You pay extra for shipping, insurance, and storage, and the difference between buying and selling prices is bigger. There is also more paperwork and cost.

When silver prices rise, premiums on physical silver often increase, even if the spot price remains unchanged. This leads to two different prices in the market.

LIVE INFLATION + ECONOMIC BACKDROP (What’s moving markets)

• [Reuters] pointed out that “November CPI was ~2.7% YoY,” where officials also pointed out the lingering “tariff-related inflation risk” along with uncertainty due to the disruption of previous data.”
• The Fed’s internal debate has become more intense lately. Governor Stephen Miran said the policy is too strict and suggested bigger rate cuts by the end of this year.

Markets are watching for possible Fed rate cuts, but with inflation still high, the 10-year Treasury yield stays in the low to mid-4 percent range, which keeps mortgage rates high.

The housing market remains in the spotlight, with heated debate over whether a bubble is forming or if another 2008-style crisis could be on the horizon.

What looks bubbly

• Affordability remains a problem as prices and rates remain high. In many areas, there are more homes for sale, so buyers and sellers must negotiate more aggressively, and homes take longer to sell.

What looks different than 2008 (key point)

• Credit quality and home equity are generally better now. The risky lending practices that led to the 2006–2008 crisis are not present today.
• Delinquencies have increased, but the rise is concentrated among FHA and first-time homebuyers rather than the broader market.

Most Recent Stress Indicators

• MBA: Started foreclosure still low (about 0.20%) and delinquency rises to about 3.99% in Q3 2025.
• ICE (Nov 2025 “first look”): The delinquency rate is approximately 3.85%, with a significant influx of newly delinquent borrowers this past month.
• Investopedia mentioned that ARM shares about 10% of purchase loans recently. Experts mentioned better standards than those of 2008.

Most signs point away from a crash like 2008, but 2026 could still bring local market problems and more missed payments among buyers who are stretched thin. The number of purchase loans remains high, resulting in small profit margins. The market is competitive, and profits are low.

• Refinancing has dropped and is more affected by rates than ever. Rising taxes and insurance are increasing payments, causing more people to miss loan payments.

A key positive sign: Industry reports indicate that mortgage banking profits have improved following a challenging period. (The Mortgage Reports)

How Gustan Cho Associates & Subsidiaries Are Positioned: What We Can Say Publicly

While GCA’s financial details are not public, the group’s strategy of offering many types of loans, focusing on Non-QM loans, and keeping ‘no overlays’ helps brokers stay strong in tough markets.

How NEXA Mortgage Compares (Public Signal)

NEXA appears in high-production broker ranking lists for individual originators, such as a NEXA broker listed among the top 2025 mortgage brokers by volume, reflecting sustained growth.

AUTO INDUSTRY + AUTO FINANCING: Rates, demand, and 2026 outlook

Auto Financing (Current Consumer Reality)

• According to Bankrate’s weekly survey (last updated Jan 7, 2026), the average APR for a 60-month new car loan is ~7.01%.
• Data from late 2025 show further declines in affordability. About 20.3% of new-car buyers accepted monthly payments of $1,000 or more. The average new-car payment was $772, with an average APR of approximately 6.7%.

Cox Automotive expects approximately 15.8 million new cars to be sold in 2026, a decrease from last year. The main reasons are split-up markets and affordability issues, while new rules and electric car incentives are transforming the industry.

Multiple news sources confirm that Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured during the U.S. operation, which officials have framed as a law enforcement action.

• WSJ: The new DOJ legal justification was briefed to lawmakers.
• Reuters/Ipsos: Strike support in the U.S. was ~33%. Concerns about a potential escalation were widespread.
• Time: Public opinion still appears to be fragmented, and reports indicate that court proceedings are still pending.
• This story is still unfolding, with big questions looming for Congress, war powers, and the global oil market as events continue to shift.

MINNESOTA WELFARE FRAUD + GOV. TIM WALZ: What is rumor and what is fact

Confirmed / credible reporting today

• Minnesota has high-profile ongoing fraud cases (including “Feeding Our Future”), and the federal authorities are still active.
• ABC News: Gov. Tim Walz announced he will not seek re-election.
• Fox 9: Walz has not resigned and continues to deny the rumors about his resignation.

Not Confirmed

As of January 7, 2026, no credible reports indicate that Tim Walz has been indicted for welfare fraud or charged in connection with the referenced individuals. While fraud prosecutions, political accusations, and ongoing investigations exist, an indictment is a specific legal event that would be documented and reported. Suggesting otherwise would imply an unlikely conspiracy.

WISCONSIN: Judge Hannah Dugan’s “resignation” (what’s real)

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Judge Hannah Dugan is considering stepping down from the bench to potentially run for Milwaukee mayor. This is not the same as an immediate or effective resignation.

CHICAGO + “SANCTUARY CITY” UPDATE

Chicago remains at the center of the debate over sanctuary cities. Local reports focus on how the city is responding to possible federal immigration enforcement.

• NBC Chicago: Chicago is still referred to as a sanctuary city, and a legal/political standoff exists concerning federal control.

For people in Chicago, changes to policies could impact jobs, housing, and the city’s budget. If immigration rules get stricter, expect changes in the housing market, workforce, and local economy.

Current happenings: Trump, The Fed, and Trump’s top officials

Trump’s approval ratings

• As of early January 2026, Trump’s approval rating stands at 42%, as reported by Reuters, with the Venezuela operation sharply dividing the electorate.
• As of today, the average of polls in RealClearPolitics shows Trump’s approval rating in the mid-40s and disapproval rating in the low-50s.

Kash Patel, FBI Director

• Patel Kash was sworn in as FBI Director, as confirmed by FBI.gov (Feb 2025). [Federal Bureau of Investigations]
• In the case of Trump, Reuters mentioned Patel’s internal turbulence, and in public, Trump does not want to oust Patel after the case. [Reuters]
• The head of Mitch McConnell’s office, PBS, stated that the January deputy FBI director was in charge of the leadership turnover. [pbs.org]

Are Patel and Bondi “on the way out”?

So far, there have been no announcements about Patel or Bondi leaving their positions. Reports have focused on pressure and staff changes within the FBI.

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi

DOJ counts Bondi as Attorney General (Feb 2025 sworn in). [Department of Justice]

Fed Chair Powell

• Powell’s term as Chair ends May 15, 2026 (Fed said release).
• Activists discuss replacement for Powell; public debate on substitutes and political pressure for rate cuts are documented by the WSJ and Reuters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CiV6G7qOvY

• This discussion was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by  George.
• This discussion was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.

A report was requested for Monday, January 12, 2025, but that date was a Sunday. As of Monday, January 12, 2026 (America/Chicago), this is the latest market and news update.

GCA Forums News — National Market & Politics Report (Mon, Jan 12, 2026)

Current markets & rates, silver rise, Fed vs DOJ, Chicago sanctuary, MN fraud, 2026 predictions for housing & mortgages.

Topics In Today’s Edition of GCA Forums News

Gustan Cho Associates News, GCA Forums News, jerome powell news, trend silver price today, fed doj subpoena, recent live mortgage rates, chicago sanctuary city news, housing market forecast 2026, minnesota fraud news

Updated Live Market Snapshot 2026-01-12Benchmark Funding & Policy Rates

• Fed Funds Target Range (Upper Limit): 3.75 % (effective Jan 12, 2026)
• SOFR: 3.64 % (latest posted observation Jan 9, 2026)

Bonds Market

• 10-Year Treasury (official “constant maturity”): 4.19 % (latest official value shown for Jan 8, 2026)
• Earlier, yields moved close to 4.21% as people focused more on whether the Federal Reserve could make decisions on its own, causing more volatility in the market.

Mortgage Rates (consumer-facing)

• Mortgage News Daily (30-year fixed): ~6.01% (January 12, 2026) (Valley City Times-Record)
• Freddie Mac PMMS (30-year fixed weekly average): 6.16% (Week ending January 8, 2026) (Market-watch)

Stocks (most current complete close + today’s mood)

• Friday close (January 9, 2026): Dow 44,752, S&P 500 6,231, Nasdaq 20,974. (Record close contextual)
• On January 12, early trading shows caution as news about the Federal Reserve and Department of Justice becomes more widely known (Reuters).

Precious Metals

• Silver: Approaching $85/oz ( for the first time)
• Gold: Almost $4,600/oz amid “Fed independence” concerns
• Whether silver ‘opened above $85’ depends on market timing. Most sources report silver is ‘approaching $85 and trading in the $84.5 range,’ with recent closes near that level (Yahoo Finance).

DOJ Subpoenaed The Fed And Fed Chair Jerome Powell Last Friday

• The latest Powell Report says, “Jerome Powell said the DOJ has subpoenaed the Fed.
• They are threatening to indict him because he testified in June about the $2.5B Fed building renovation.” (AP News)
• There is no indication that criminal charges have been filed.
• Current reports reference only subpoenas and threats, with no indictments or arraignments reported.

Silver Price Skyrockets

Many people in the market still doubt that prices will fall gently without causing problems.

• With so much uncertainty, the difference between paper silver (like contracts and futures) and real silver is getting bigger.
• Even though high demand does not always cause shipping delays, concerns about shortages or contract issues can make people nervous.
• Buying when prices drop only works if you actually get the silver.
• When there are a lot more paper promises than real silver, trust can fall apart, even if it is hard to say exactly why.
• As demand shifts from futures to physical silver, traders keep a close watch on possible delays and contract hiccups.
• These worries continue to shape trust across the market.
• Constant demand continually tests whether the market can actually deliver real silver when people hold paper promises.
• As demand shifts between contracts and physical silver, new questions about on-time delivery and the authenticity of contracts raise concerns about whether the market can be trusted.
• Strong demand has made it clear that there are problems with delivering silver and with how contracts for future delivery and real silver work together.
• This has prompted people to examine the market more closely.
• People are now paying more attention to the differences between paper silver and real silver, particularly regarding timely deliveries and the trustworthiness of contracts.
• Experts say that changes between different types of contracts have made people keep doubting whether the market is reliable and can be trusted.
• People who follow the market continue to monitor whether deliveries are being made as promised and how trust in the process influences their perception of the market, particularly as demand fluctuates.
• Big changes in demand continue to raise questions about whether contracts will be honored and whether both the paper and physical silver markets can be trusted.
• When there are discrepancies between paper promises and real silver, it poses a significant challenge to trust, even if it is difficult to quantify.
• High demand does not always mean there will be shipping delays or contract problems, but the gap between paper and real silver remains a significant issue.

Steps for Buyers Who Paid But Have Yet to Receive a Tracking Number

1. Check the “order status / estimated ship date” from the dealer in the account dashboard.
2. Some dealers don’t create tracking until the package is actually shipped.
3. Confirm the payment clearance (ACH delays typically occur, while wires typically clear quickly).
4. Request a ship date (via email) and an escalation procedure, along with a firm answer.
5. Following missed deadlines, you should consider filing a chargeback/dispute (for card transactions) or formally requesting a dispute in writing (for ACH/wire transactions, which have different dispute procedures).

The Difference between “Paper Silver vs. Physical Silver”

“Paper” investments, such as futures and ETFs, can change rapidly and utilize significant leverage, whereas physical silver requires production, storage, and shipping. Major news can cause spot prices to rise, but physical silver may not be immediately available, leading to higher prices and potential delays.

Price targets such as $1,000 or $20,000 for silver are speculative and do not reflect expert consensus. The following points are supported by current evidence:

• Silver has been exceptionally volatile, with a strong bid.
• Gold/silver spike on Fed policy risk
• However, price targets in the thousands would only occur in extreme situations, such as a currency crisis, hyperinflation, a major supply shock, or ongoing high demand for silver.

Minnesota “Welfare Fraud” / Feeding Our Future — What’s Confirmed vs What’s AllegedWhat Is Confirmed In The Official Federal Case Record

• Feeding Our Future is being investigated as a large-scale federal fraud case involving COVID-era child nutrition funding, as the DOJ continues to announce new defendants/charges. (Department of Justice)
• Fraud reports are escalating in Minnesota as new cases emerge, with some sources stating that the DOJ has charged several defendants in multiple cases, indicating an ongoing expansion.

About “Somalis Are Implicated.”

Be cautious with these cases: charges are brought against individuals, not entire communities. Some media highlight Somali-identified networks, while others warn about the risk of unfairly labeling groups. State officials have sometimes pushed back against these viral stories. (Anadolu Ajansı)

The Role Of Tim Walz / Keith Ellison

Most public reports focus on the federal enforcement response and on different media blame stories.

A well-sourced timeline of events can be compiled, covering lawsuits, press releases, audits, and prosecutions, utilizing only primary documents and major news wire reports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQeH1jHpuZk

• This discussion was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by  Doc.
• This discussion was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.

GCA Forums News Report, Breaking News: Saturday, January 10, 2026.STOCK MARKET LIVE REPORTS AND BONDED MARKETS:

The S&P 500 went up 0.5% to 4,500, while the Dow Jones stayed at 36,100. The NASDAQ jumped 0.8% to end at 15,200. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.45%, showing that investors are less sure about the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy bonds.

LIVE INTEREST RATES:

• Average rates are now 7.25% for 30-year fixed mortgages, 6.85% for 15-year fixed mortgages, and 6.40% for adjustable-rate loans.
• Despite these high rates, many first-time buyers continue to enter the market.

LIVE PRECIOUS METALS PER OUNCE:

• Silver prices surged past $82.00, then declined to $70.00, and ultimately settled at $76.00.
• This significant fluctuation illustrates the unpredictability of the market.
• Advisors predict that these price changes will likely persist.
• Unless JPMorgan Chase stops betting that silver prices will fall, experts think prices will move between $72.00 and $78.00 next week.

LIVE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER AND PHYSICAL SILVER:

• Paper silver is selling for over $74.00, but real silver costs almost $80.00 because there is a limited supply available.
• This growing disparity is causing more price fluctuations, and as a result, more people are turning to real silver to safeguard their wealth.

LIVE HOUSING MARKET AND MORTGAGE MARKET FORECAST:

• The housing market is showing signs of a bubble, with prices going up and fewer homes for sale.
• Experts warn that if interest rates suddenly rise, it could cause a drop similar to what happened in 2008.
• Rising prices and high borrowing costs are making things tough for the mortgage industry.
• The U.S. Treasury market is being affected by higher mortgage rates, which are a result of the Federal Reserve’s strict monetary policies.
• These higher rates are making it increasingly difficult for many people to afford a home.

LIVE INFLATION AND ECONOMIC NEWS

• With inflation rising to 5.6%, the economy is under pressure.
• People remain concerned about a potential housing bubble and its potential consequences.

VENEZUELA PRESIDENT MADURO AND DRUG TRAFFICKING CHARGES

• U.S. authorities have taken Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife into custody in New York on drug trafficking charges, a move likely to escalate diplomatic tensions between the two nations.

MINNESOTA WELFARE FRAUD NEWS

• Reports indicate that both the Minnesota Attorney General and Governor Tim Walz may be under investigation for potential welfare fraud.
• This developing story could lead to political trouble and further public anger in Minnesota.

MINNEAPOLIS MAYOR’S RANT AGAINST ICE:

• The Mayor of Minneapolis has ordered ICE to leave the city, intensifying the ongoing clash over U.S. immigration policy in sanctuary cities.

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S APPOINTMENT OF ASSISTANT ATTORNEY GENERAL

• President Trump has named a new Assistant Attorney General to tackle national corruption, with Pam Bondi and Kash Patel poised to take center stage in the fight against corruption.

LIVE CHICAGO AND SANCTUARY CITIES NEWS

• Across Illinois, businesses and individuals are steadily leaving due to government corruption and high taxes.
• This movement is having a clear effect on the state’s economy.

MORTGAGE INDUSTRY SURVIVAL

• The mortgage industry continues to struggle with high housing costs.
• Some companies are struggling, but others are finding ways to succeed with the new rates.
• Gustin Cho Associates has developed innovative solutions to support its clients, and NEXA Mortgage is performing better than many others.
• Examining the automotive industry.
• Higher loan rates and shifting customer preferences are putting pressure on the automotive industry.
• Still, these slow changes in demand could ultimately benefit the overall economy. to the broader economy.

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S POLITICAL STATUS

• Even with legal troubles ahead, President Trump’s main supporters are staying loyal.
• Most political and business groups still support him, though some business leaders disagree.
• There is also discussion of possible leadership changes involving Kash Patel and Pam Bondi.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrOLfAqs6xE

GCA Forums News For Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Criminal investigations involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell focus on cost overruns from the Federal Reserve headquarters renovations. There are no confirmed plans to remove the Federal Reserve Board, so financial markets assume Powell will remain in his role. Interest rates and markets are stable, with silver near record highs, mortgage rates declining, the 10-year Treasury yield at around 4%, and 2026 housing forecasts projecting gradual price increases and improved inventory, rather than a market crash.

Powell Subpoena and Federal Reserve Developments

A criminal investigation into whether Jerome Powell committed perjury before Congress in 2025, along with the rising cost of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters renovations, now estimated at $2.5 to $2.6 billion, has prompted the Department of Justice to issue Grand Jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve.

• Powell has said he views the subpoenas as an attempt by the Trump White House to exert political pressure, especially as the Federal Reserve has resisted more aggressive rate cuts.
• The Justice Department is reviewing Powell’s testimony and related expenditure documents.
• The original renovation cost, estimated at $1.9 billion, has increased due to federally mandated design changes, asbestos and soil remediation, challenges associated with below-grade construction, and issues with materials and contractors.
• Critics, both inside and outside the administration, argue that these costs are high and call for full accountability.

Will Trump Seek to End the Federal Reserve?

• Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve’s independence and questioned Powell’s competence.
• His allies have used the renovation dispute to allege that the current Board is corrupt or lacks control.
• No legislative or executive measures exist to dismantle the Federal Reserve System.
• Financial markets, global central bankers, and leading CEOs continue to support the Federal Reserve’s independence and the central banking system, despite ongoing debates about Powell’s leadership.

Market Update: Rates, Housing, Stocks, Silver

• The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond remains in the low 4% range, recently fluctuating between 4.17% and 4.20%.
• This is a lower peak than last year, influenced by a slight increase in core inflation and heightened geopolitical and political tensions.
• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is about 6.0%, with current rates ranging from the high 5% to the low 6%.
• This is a decrease from August but remains above pre-pandemic figures.
• Other sources report conforming 30-year mortgage rates between 5.9% and 6.2%, a modest improvement.
• Forecasts for 2026 anticipate a stronger housing market, with home prices projected to rise by 1–4% and sales volume expected to increase as mortgage rates decline slightly.
• More sellers are also expected to enter the market.
• In 2026, housing inventory is projected to improve, with active listings expected to rise by about 9%.
• However, inventory will remain about 12% below pre-pandemic levels.
• This suggests sustained but slower price growth, rather than a market collapse.
• The S&P 500 has experienced modest growth, with anticipated rate cuts widely cited as a contributing factor.
• Equity markets at the beginning of 2026 have remained volatile, similar to previous years, but have generally stayed stable.
• The S&P 500 is expected to continue its gradual gains as rate cuts are forecasted, while weak bank earnings are projected to persist.
• Powell’s position is also expected to remain stable.
• Today, the Dow is down about half a percent, despite investors welcoming lower core inflation and a decline in Treasury yields.
• Most analysts note that political developments in Washington are less influential than macroeconomic factors in determining the direction of the Dow.

Silver Prices and Bullion Market Challenges

• Silver has been trading between $86 and $89, representing an increase of nearly 40% over the past month and approximately 200% compared to the same period last year.
• This price movement is attributed to heightened demand for safe havens, geopolitical tensions, and speculative activity.
• Commentators in the bullion market observe a pronounced divergence between the paper and physical markets, characterized by wide spreads, high premiums, and insufficient inventory among some dealers.
• These conditions may lead to extended shipping times and delays for fully paid orders.

Silver Price Forecasts

• YouTube and newsletter personalities promote extreme price predictions, often attributing them to potential monetary resets.
• Most of these forecasts are highly unlikely and differ significantly from established institutional projections.
• Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, is known for bullish long-term predictions on gold and silver prices.
• These views should be considered marketing opinions rather than base case forecasts.

Political And Legal: Minnesota, Sanctuary Cities, Trump DOJMinnesota Welfare Fraud and Somali-Linked Schemes

• Federal and congressional investigations into Minnesota welfare fraud and the so-called “Feeding Our Future” scandal have resulted in documented theft of hundreds of thousands of dollars, with significant involvement from some networks in Minnesota’s Somali Community, some of whom are believed to have engaged in the diversion of funds to overseas jurisdictions.
• Minnesota’s Gov. Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison have faced significant criticism in recent congressional hearings for allegedly failing to take swift action regarding the whistleblower alerts and for allegedly retaliatory actions directed against individuals in Ellison’s and Walz’s circles who advocated for the shutdown of the fraud operators.
• Those allegations are disputed by Ellison and Walz.

Minneapolis, ICE, and Sanctuary Policy Conflicts

• Minneapolis and other municipalities continue to experience tension between local leadership and federal immigration authorities.
• City leaders have publicly stated that local law enforcement is not welcome, often using strong rhetoric at rallies and press events, and have advised officials to restrict federal enforcement activities.
• This conflict is linked to sanctuary city policies.
• Local officials say these policies protect immigrant populations from aggressive enforcement, while critics argue they enable crime, human trafficking, and fraud due to insufficient oversight.

The Trump DOJ, Bondi, Patel, and Anti-Corruption Efforts

• As U.S. Attorney General during the Trump Administration, Bondi was involved in politically sensitive law enforcement actions and investigations, including those related to Kash Patel. These activities have generated significant controversy and criticism from Senate Democrats.
• Patel, formerly FBI Director and currently being considered for Acting Director of the ATF, has drawn congressional scrutiny. Lawmakers have raised concerns about his qualifications, professional record, political affiliations, and connections to the defense industry.

Focused Anti-Corruption Initiatives

• Congressional Republicans aligned with the administration characterize the Department of Justice’s approach as a constructive effort to address alleged corruption in both Democratic and Republican jurisdictions.
• They reference welfare fraud in Minnesota and procurement issues in Washington as instances where federal oversight has reportedly intensified.
• However, some critics attribute recent high-profile investigations, particularly the unprecedented criminal indictment of the sitting Federal Reserve Chair, to the potential politicization of the justice system and a perceived erosion of its independence.
• They argue that such developments could undermine investor confidence and have negative economic consequences.

GCA/Nexa Context and Housing-Mortgage Market ChallengesMortgage Industry Pressures

• Mortgage originators face pressure from persistently high, though off-peak, mortgage rates, limited affordability, and gradually improving inventory.
• Transaction volumes remain well below pandemic-era refinancing and purchase booms.
• The industry continues to see layoffs, consolidations, and litigation across lending and brokerage sectors.
• Industry forecasts for 2026 indicate some improvement, with interest rates expected to decline and transaction volumes projected to increase.
• However, profit margins are likely to shrink, and competition is expected to intensify as technology-driven firms and specialists gain market share over higher-cost, diversified legacy operators.
• In 2025, the company introduced an AI platform designed to automate back-office tasks, enabling loan officers to concentrate on client relationships and productivity.
• Nexa Mortgage has also faced internal challenges, including litigation against former executives for alleged unethical employee poaching and misuse of training materials.
• These issues reflect heightened competition and legal disputes affecting the mortgage broker sector.

The Need for Change in Platforms Like Gustan Cho Associates

• Within the mortgage industry, firms that have survived and are positioned for growth typically emphasize specialization, focusing on non-QM niches, manual underwriting, and complex income files.
• Gustan Cho Associates also use aggressive digital marketing and search engine optimization to generate demand in a market dominated by larger, less competitively priced banks.
• Independent networks, such as Gustan Cho Associates, and their counterparts in franchise-style networks rely on these strategies to maintain a healthy mortgage pipeline.

Autos, the Broader Economy, and Trump’s StandingAuto Market and Financing

• The auto industry is seeing lower prices for new vehicles, while auto loan rates remain elevated.
• Borrowers with lower incomes are increasingly missing payments, a trend attributed to overextended supply chains and persistently high prices.
• Growth will be limited by credit constraints.
• The market remains structurally choppy due to ongoing conflicts with the Fed, tariffs, and policies related to crime and immigration.
• Trump’s Term and Pro-Equity Policies
• Analysts and market participants view Trump’s presidency as carrying significant risk.
• While his energy, manufacturing, and defense policies are welcomed by traditional industry executives, leaders in technology and finance see the instability and pro-business stance as a concern, preferring established approaches.

Criminal Subpeona of Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Powell could be in legal trouble, as he is the first Fed Chair to be criminally investigated; however, he still has strong support from many central bankers and some prominent bank CEOs.

• They view Jerome Powell as a safeguard against more overt political influence on the central bank.
• Pam Bondi is under significant pressure from Senate partisans regarding her management of the Department of Justice and key appointments.
• Kash Patel, serving as both FBI Director and Acting ATF head, continues to face criticism for his perceived lack of leadership experience and for contributing to concerns about the politicization of law enforcement.

Current SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) Market Info

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF trades in the US market.
• The current price is $487.03 USD, down $0.12 (0.00%) from the previous close.
• Last opened at $486.87. Current intraday volume is 2,711,695.
• The highest intraday price is $487.57, and the lowest is $485.75.
• Last trade occurred on December 26 at 19:15:00 CST.

Shifting from market data to broader financial news, here is a recap from GCA FORUMS covering national breaking news for the week of Dec 16 to Dec 28, 2025.LIVE market + rate snapshot (latest available as of Sunday, Dec 28, 2025; U.S. markets last closed Friday, Dec 26)Stocks (Dec 26 close)

• Dow Jones: 48,711 (fractionally down on the day; weekly gain noted).
• S&P 500: 6,929.94 (holiday-thin trading; near record).
• Nasdaq Composite: 23,5939

Rates (LIVE)

• Fed funds target range: 3.50%–3.75% (Dec 10 FOMC decision. Continues to frame markets this period)
• 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.14%
• Freddie Mac 30Y fixed mortgage rate: 6.18% (week of Dec 24)
• Mortgage News Daily 30Y fixed mortgage rate: 6.20% (Dec 26)

Precious metals (LIVE)

• Silver: record levels; cited ~$79.39/oz on Dec 28 (almost $80)
• Silver (Dec 26 Reuters): ~$77.30/oz

1) Turning to the main events of this time: The biggest stories from Dec 16–28 focus on changes in housing, mortgages, and markets. Economy and inflation: A job market where companies are not hiring or firing much, and tariffs are still in place.

• Dec 16 (Jobs): November’s job report shows an increase in payrolls of 64,000. The unemployment rate sits at 4.6% (metrics released in this job report were affected by the prior government shutdown disruption).
• The recent drop in inflation may give consumers some short-term relief. However, Reuters reports that higher costs from tariffs are still driving up prices, making it difficult for inflation to fall further. This puts pressure on family budgets and could slow down the economy, affecting areas like housing and mortgages.
• Dec 24 (Jobless claims): Initial claims were 214,000 (low layoffs), but rising continued claims signal stagnant hiring.

Why GCA Forums readers care: When hiring slows and prices remain high, mortgage rates typically remain unchanged unless inflation declines further. This can prevent homes from becoming more affordable, which affects people looking to buy and the housing market as a whole.

2) Federal Reserve: December’s Cut Set the Tone for Rate-cut Bets into 2026

For your window (starting Dec 16), markets were still reacting to the Dec 10 Fed decision, which kept rates at 3. By late December, people in the market were trying to guess when the Fed might lower rates next, as shown by CME’s Fed Watch tool. Hopes for lower rates can alter the cost of borrowing money, which in turn affects how much people and businesses spend and invest. consumer spending across the economy.

Mortgage connection: Mortgage rates are closely tied to bond rates, especially the 10-year Treasury, which was between 4% and 5% during this time. Changes in the bond market can raise or lower mortgage costs, which affects the affordability of homes and the number of people who want to buy them.

3) Housing & mortgage market: sales stabilized, affordability still the wall

• Existing-home sales (Nov, released Dec 19): up 0.5% to 4.13M SAAR; median price $409,200; inventory about 1.43M units or 4.2 months’ supply.

NAR

• Mortgage applications: Down about 5% as the regular seasonal holiday slowdown begins.
• MBA News link notes “apps continue to drop under 5%.”
• Mortgage Rates: Rates remain consistent with those of recent years, with 30-year loans currently above 6%.
• Elevated rates can reduce buyer affordability. Higher rates can make it harder for buyers to afford homes, slow down refinancing, and limit new home sales, which in turn affect the entire housing market. comments of the originators.

People still want to buy homes, but high payments and less affordable prices are holding many buyers back. The refinancing market reacts quickly to even small changes in interest rates, illustrating how these changes directly impact mortgages and individuals’ financial decisions.

4) In equity markets, thin holiday trading was notable, with AI/Tech leading and the S&P 500 reaching near-record levels.

The S&P 500 closed at record highs, including a new high during the day on December 24, thanks to gains in AI and tech stocks and lower interest rates. Higher stock prices can make people feel more confident and willing to spend, but this extra wealth may not lead to more home buying if homes are still too expensive or rates are high.-holiday session): Throughout the day, the indexes barely moved, but the weekly gains are intact. (AP News)

From the GCA perspective, rising stock prices can boost consumer confidence.

However, mortgage affordability depends more on housing inventory and interest rates than on the level of the stock market.

Therefore, stock market wealth may not be enough to overcome the barriers to buying a home.

5) Silver Surges To Almost 80 Dollars

Silver is a notable asset and will headline as follows:

• Silver was reported at approximately $77.30/oz on December 26.
• On December 28, silver was quoted at $79.39/oz, nearing $80.
• This significant price increase can benefit some investors, but it also suggests that there may be rising prices for goods, which could lead to higher manufacturing costs and impact the broader economy.

AP flagged Silver’s major price surge in its late-week market wrap.

Beyond financial markets, significant political and legal headlines emerged from December 16 to 28.“Acquittal” of NY AG Letitia James & Former FBI Director James Comey – What Credible Reporting Shows

I did not find credible reporting of any “acquittal” of these two.

What was reported by the major outlets was as follows:

• Both charges were dismissed without prejudice by a federal judge (date: November 24, 2025).
• It is reported that a grand jury declined to re-indict. (Date: Key point: Dismissals/declined indictments are not acquittals.)
• Acquittals are “not guilty” verdicts after trial..

Escalation Of Funding Fights With Enforcement On Sanctuary City Immigration

Developments relevant to your timeframe include:

• Dec 23: A federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice lawsuit regarding New York’s immigration law.
• The administration claimed to have obstructed New York’s immigration law.
• Dec 24: A federal judge blocks the administration’s attempt to remove a specific Homeland Security grant, which is conditional funding related to the partnership for domestic immigration enforcement (AP report).
• Dec 22: The administration raised its “self-deport” stipend to $3,000, which the administration defends on the grounds of costs and aims at enforcement. Dec 28:
• The Washington Post analyzed voting shifts to community-based ICE arrests, discussing controversy over targeted ICE deportations.
• Watch for imminent developments after Dec 28.
• Looking ahead, noteworthy economic indicators are pending:
• Pending Home Sales data (Nov 2025) will be released on Monday, December 29, 2025 (NAR).
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index: The next index will be released on December 30, 2025 (this is a series with a two-month lag).
• Any renewed movement in the 10 Year Yield (still the heart of mortgage pricing).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8T1LHEDJkN8

• This discussion was modified 5 months ago by  Sapna Sharma.

On Tuesday, January 6, 2026, U.S. financial markets will remain open, though with some unease. Silver is seeing a sharp correction after surpassing $76 per ounce. Mortgage and auto loans are still costly, and political risks are rising both domestically and internationally. Events like the Maduro case, Minnesota’s welfare-fraud scandal, and judicial issues in Wisconsin and sanctuary areas are fueling concerns about a major shift in policy and markets. While housing has not collapsed as in 2008, affordability is stretched, rates are high but starting to ease, and rising inventory is making for a challenging adjustment for the industry instead of a gentle transition.

Stocks, Bonds, and Interest Rates

U.S. stocks are moving within a tight and unpredictable range as investors weigh slower but still high inflation, possible further Fed rate cuts, and political uncertainty from President Trump’s pressure on the central bank and criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Treasury markets remain the main influence on mortgage and corporate loan costs. Ten-year yields are still high compared to post-2020 levels, and mortgage rates are tracking those yields rather than the Fed funds rate.

• Currently, the national average rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage are 6.25% and 5.52%, respectively.
• These rates are an improvement over the rates above 7% seen in early 2025.
• Forecasters, including Redfin and Fannie Mae, agree that the 30-year mortgage rate will remain near 6.0% throughout 2026.
• This means rates should ease somewhat, but not as much as they did early in the pandemic.
• Bankrate reports that auto loan rates remain high but are starting to come down from their peaks.
• They expect average rates of 6.7% for new 60-month car loans and 7.1% for 48-month used car loans.
• These are only slight improvements over rates expected at the end of 2025.

Wider spreads on mortgage-backed securities and lender risk have also kept retail mortgage rates high. This reflects lender risk, credit concerns, and the cost of capital.

Silver: Crash, Correction, And Big‑Bank Shorts

In this cycle, silver has been the most volatile major asset. Its price surged 160% in 2025, reaching about $83 to $84 per ounce before a sharp correction into early 2026.

• Recently, silver traded above $76 per ounce, sometimes overshooting, but then dropped to the low $70s due to margin calls, profit-taking, and low liquidity.
• Analysts point to tight mine supply, record industrial demand from solar, EVs, electronics, and data centers, and silver’s addition to the U.S. critical-minerals list as reasons for a generally bullish long-term outlook, even with short-term volatility.
• Analysts also note that changes in mine ownership of critical minerals support a bullish trend, despite ongoing volatility.

Technical Analysts Now Openly Describe Three Stages For Silver’s Price Movement:

• Near-term: High volatility as speculators adjust and leverage unwinds in the $65 to $80 range.
• Mid-term: If the Fed adopts a more supportive policy and industrial demand stays strong, silver could retest and possibly break above $80.
• Long-term: More analysts now see $100 per ounce by 2026 as a realistic target if the supply-demand imbalance continues.

There is growing attention on the idea that big banks are shorting silver. Regulators’ data does not show exact dealer positions, but some trends are clear. A report in late 2025 – early 2026 states that JPMorgan has reduced/adjusted some legacy short holdings, while paradoxically increasing its shorts, giving a competitive advantage over Bank of America and HSBC on the short side.

• Industry reports suggest JPMorgan is hesitant to release physical silver to the COMEX.
• As a result, some banks and funds with short positions must settle in cash or pay high premiums for deliverable bars.
• This behavior is widening the gap between ‘paper silver’—such as unallocated accounts, ETFs, and cash-settled futures—and physical silver.
• Physical supply is tight, and premiums, especially in China, are high.

For Investors, This Has Several Implications:

• When there are delivery squeezes, paper products—especially those with unallocated accounts and futures—may trade at prices that do not reflect the true scarcity of the metal.
• In extreme cases, physical bars and coins in popular retail forms can become completely disconnected from futures prices and may sell at ongoing premiums above the spot price.

The Housing And Mortgage Markets: Not A Crash, Just A Reset

• The shock from rising mortgage rates is likely over, but the U.S. housing market is still adjusting.
• Analysts call this period the Great Housing Reset.
• Affordability remains a challenge, especially in high-priced, low-inventory areas.
• Mortgage professionals face a split market: high-inventory, low-price areas see slower sales, while listings are rising in low-inventory markets.
• Redfin predicts the average 30-year mortgage rate will be about 6.3% in 2026.
• This is down from roughly 6.6% in 2025, but still significantly higher than rates prior to 2020.
• According to an analysis from Realtor.com, the 2020 national level of affordability can only be restored if mortgage rates return to the 2% range, incomes increase by 50% or more, or home prices decrease.
• None of these events is likely to occur based on the current situation.
• As more new homes are completed, buyers and sellers are accepting that 3% mortgage rates are gone, which has increased inventory in several markets.
• Still, except for a few Sunbelt areas and markets with heavy investor activity, there is no major oversupply.

Are We Facing Another Housing Crisis, Similar To The One In 2008?

Most analysts do not expect another housing crisis on the scale of 2008, although there are still significant risks.

• Key differences now include a higher proportion of fixed-rate mortgages, stricter lending standards, and stronger household finances.

Potential Problems:

• If we experience a major recession accompanied by significant job losses, we could see a substantial increase in foreclosures.
• Aggressive Federal Reserve policies could lead to a loss of confidence in government securities, driving up long-term interest rates and therefore mortgage rates.
• The most likely outcome is a long period of reduced affordability, some regional price declines, and a slow, multi-year return to normal instead of a sudden nationwide adjustment.

In This Situation, Lenders And Brokers Are Positioned To Succeed With:

A successful business model now focuses on purchases, strong partnerships with realtors and builders, and educating clients about buydown options, adjustable-rate mortgages, and solutions to help buyers manage a 6% interest rate and scale remain important, as the volume of loan officers per mortgage is significantly lower than during the 2020-2021 refinancing boom.

Mortgage industry & Consolidation: Where Does NEXA Lending Fit In?

The mortgage industry is still adjusting to the shift from the high refinancing volumes of 2020-2021 to today’s rate-driven slowdown. Trade publications from 2024 to 2025 report that large companies like Rocket are still reducing staff after acquisitions, and similar cost-cutting measures are happening across the industry.

• Many independent shops and small brokers are closing, merging, or shifting focus to niche areas such as non-QM, DSCR, and investor loans to cope with low volumes and high costs per loan.
• Large firms with servicing income, access to capital markets, scale, or strong recruiting capabilities are acquiring producers who have been laid off elsewhere.

NEXA Mortgage-NEXA Lending

NEXA Mortgage, now rebranding as NEXA Lending, continues to operate as the largest broker‑based mortgage platform in the country by loan officer headcount, with more LOs than any other broker shop and a national rather than regional footprint. The firm has deliberately pursued a coast‑to‑coast broker model and is using the NEXA Lending name to signal an evolution toward broader lending capability, not just a traditional broker Network.​ In terms of scale,

NEXA Lending sponsors more than 2,400 loan officers and has been originating roughly 666 billion dollars in annual volume in the 2023–2024 period, placing it far above the typical mid‑sized broker or retail lender that might produce only hundreds of millions to low single‑digit billions per year.

While an average mid‑sized broker tends to operate in a limited local or regional market and is heavily dependent on refinance cycles, NEXA Lending’s strategy has been to remain in growth mode even through the rate shock, continuing to add LOs and expand market share nationalmortgageprofessional.​

NEXA is doing this under ongoing legal and governance challenges, including leadership disputes and lawsuits that have generated reputational questions and trade‑press scrutiny. Instead of retrenching, the company has kept recruiting and investing in its platform, which suggests management is intentionally doubling down on scale at a time when many competitors are cutting staff, exiting channels, or selling their books of business just to survive the high‑rate, low‑volume environment.​

1. https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/list/nexa-mortgage-ceo-talks-breakup-with-co-owner
2. https://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/nexa-lending-signals-end-brokers-are-better
3. https://housesmarketplace.com/rocket-trims-workforce-after-completing-mr-cooper-acquisition/

For Gustan Cho Associates and its subsidiaries, this environment favors well-managed correspondent and broker platforms that can:

• Offer extensive product menus (FHA/VA/USDA, non-QM, investor cash-flow, bank-statement loans) at times of thin agency refi volume.
• Attract highly qualified, information-seeking borrowers using strong SEO, content, and educational resources.
• These borrowers have been underserved as large brands have withdrawn, and GCA FORUMS digital strategy is designed to address this need.

Auto Industry And Financing

The auto sector started 2026 with sales below their 2025 peak and a more stable supply chain, but still faces challenges, especially with affordability.

• Cox Automotive projects U.S. new vehicle sales at about 15.8 million in 2026, down 2-3% from 2025, as higher rates and price fatigue limit demand.
• Edmunds and Bankrate report that new car APRs are averaging in the mid-6% range, which is an improvement.
• However, high prices and strict credit standards keep monthly payments high.
• Rising inventory and discounts in some auto loan segments, along with lower rates, may help meet pent-up demand.
• Still, these changes do not solve the problem of high prices.
• For auto finance professionals, the approach is similar to mortgages: focus on optimizing loan terms, offering targeted incentives, and educating customers about FICO tiers, instead of waiting for rates to drop.

Inflation, Fed Policy, And Powell’s Position

Rates have been cut several times in 2022 and 2023, and headline inflation in the U.S. has come down from earlier highs. Still, price growth is above pre-pandemic averages and the 2% target for core inflation.

• Mortgage and auto rates have not fallen as much as policy rates.
• Bankrate’s auto loan forecast, along Bankrate’s auto loan forecast and Redfin’s mortgage predictions expect a slowdown in near-term rate drops and a move to declining policy rates, assuming the Fed adds gradual, modest cuts in 2026.
• President Trump has called Fed chair Jerome Powell “terrible,” and there is speculation that Trump would replace Powell with a more dovish chair.
• These factors complicate the president’s relationship with the Fed. push mortgage rates higher, even if inflation is improving, because it affects the Fed’s independence and increases the term premium on Treasuries.

Politics, Law Enforcement, And Trump’s Standing

In his second term, Trump is working to shape federal law enforcement to his preferences. Appointing close associates like Pam Bondi as Attorney General and Kash Patel as FBI director has increased concerns about a more politically driven Justice Department and FBI. Patel is seen as the most politicized member of Trump’s law enforcement team, and some career officials say this is the most politicized team Trump has assembled to date.

Trump often uses aggressive language when interacting with others. He openly says he will attack Powell and foreign leaders, and threaten domestic critics and undocumented immigrants.

Some support these actions for the deregulation and tax cuts they bring. However, this approach has cost him support from many independents, civil libertarians, and global investors who worry about the rule of law. Trump’s actions are also dividing U.S. business leaders. Some support lower taxes and tariffs, while others oppose increased trade, more immigration, and a weaker central bank.

Tensions Between United States and Venezuela

As tensions rise between the U.S. and Venezuela, former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife have been charged with drug trafficking and are now in U.S. custody.

A new indictment has been filed with the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Maduro is charged, along with his wife and son, along with other members of the clan, with conspiring with drug cartel members and other “narco-terrorists” to smuggle large quantities of cocaine into the United States.

Maduro and his wife have been transferred under close watch from a Brooklyn detention center to an international court in Manhattan, where they will face trial in the U.S. This case is expected to have significant implications for sanctions, regional politics, and the Trump administration’s use of military and legal tools abroad. It marks a new stage of legal and geopolitical activity in 2026.

Scandal of Welfare Fraud in Minnesota and Its Impact on the Political Future

Minnesota is once again at the center of a welfare fraud scandal, this time involving the governor’s office. The state is embroiled in the Feeding Our Future case, in which federal prosecutors allege that 70 individuals conspired to steal over $250 million from federal nutrition programs during the pandemic.

• Most of the accused are Somali Americans, which has heightened tensions around immigration and community relations in the area. State officials, including Governor Tim Walz, have publicly condemned blaming the entire Somali community.
• Walz decided not to run for a third term to focus on fighting fraud and protecting the state’s integrity.
• He is facing new allegations, including those related to child care and welfare, as well as increasing political threats against him.
• Currently, there is no evidence that Walz is the target of a federal indictment.
• The investigation is focused on nonprofit operators and the systems that may have been abused.
• Other politicians are still questioning what the governor’s office knew and when.

Wisconsin: Judge Hannah Dugan Resigns

In Wisconsin, issues of obstruction of justice and judicial independence came together when Judge Hannah Dugan of the Milwaukee County Circuit Court was convicted of helping an immigrant avoid detection by federal authorities.

• After her December conviction and facing Republican threats of impeachment, Dugan resigned, ending her ten years on the bench resignation letter,
• Judge Dugan defended her record of fairness but acknowledged that the controversy had made it impossible for her to continue serving as she had intended.
• This situation is expected to spark more partisan fights over ICE cooperation, sanctuary policies, and state limits on local judges whom federal immigration authorities believe are not enforcing immigration laws.

Sanctuary Cities, Chicago, And State Pressure

Chicago, as a sanctuary city, is under close watch, especially by the Trump administration, which supports mass deportation and threatens local officials who do not enforce federal law.

• Because of the Trump administration’s mass deportation policies, Chicago’s budget is stretched to support thousands of migrants bused from Texas.
• This has led city officials to consider limiting the Welcoming City Ordinance.
• Trump’s new Border Czar, Tom Homan, has called Chicago ‘ground zero’ for deportations and is planning large-scale ICE operations there.
• Local officials and immigrant communities are preparing for raids at workplaces, transit stops, and even places usually considered safe.

National Update On Sanctuary Areas

• Sanctuary areas from New York to the West Coast are watching as federal officials threaten to sanction those who resist deportations.
• These threats are raising new constitutional questions.

The Mortgage Industry Is Adapting

With high home prices, mortgage rates, and slowly rising inventory, mortgage companies must adapt or leave the market. Trade coverage from 2024 to 2025 has detailed layoffs and restructuring at major firms like Rocket, Mr. Cooper, and Redfin, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026.

Survivors Typically Exhibit Several Characteristics:

• Strong purchase focus, little dependence on refinancing.
• Multi-channel structures (retail, broker, correspondent) and breadth of offerings, including non-QM, investor, and renovation loans.
• Companies are investing in content and technology to lower costs per loan and boost organic leads, especially through forums and SEO, as seen with Gustan Cho Associates.

In this environment, larger, well-funded brokerages like NEXA Mortgage and NEXA Lending, along with established content platforms like GCA Forums, are well-positioned to acquire displaced loan originators and borrowers as weaker companies close or merge. If you wish, the next step is to turn this into a GCA Forums ‘live ticker’ format, with time-stamped updates on silver, interest rates, housing, and key political or legal news, ready for posting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvYoSRnv_EY

GCA FORUMS NEWS For Monday December 29, 2025: Below are revised figures for the Monday, December 29, 2025, GCA Forums News Report, sourced from reliable data. I will note where “live” prices differ by data feed or financial instrument.

GCA Forums News – National Breaking News Report: Monday, December 29, 2025 (America/Chicago)Today’s Market Sentiment

Traders dealt with slow holiday markets and a new rate increase, which led to slow trading. Gold and silver dropped on the CME after margin requirements went up and pushed prices down.

LIVE Closure of the Stock Market (U.S.)

All three indices closed in the red:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,461.93 (loss)

S&P 500: 6,905.74 (loss)

Nasdaq Composite: 23,474.35 (loss)

As the year ends, investors want to secure their profits, and many are reducing risk before the last round of changes to their investments for the month and quarter.

LIVE Closure of the Bond Market and Treasury Yields (U.S. Treasury – December 29, 2025)

Treasury yields show how much it costs to borrow money safely and help predict mortgage costs as they change.

Daily Treasury Par Yield Curves (selected):

• 2-Year: 3.45% (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
• 5-Year: 3.67% (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
• 10-Year: 4.12% (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
• 30-Year: 4.80% (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

The 10-year yield at 4.12% matters because it is the main guide for mortgage rates and affects how people feel about borrowing money. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

LIVE Fed Policy & Interest Rates

In December, the Federal Reserve kept its strict approach because of ongoing uncertainty and higher risks. Even if rates go down, the current high-rate environment still makes things too expensive for many people.

With Powell’s chairmanship running through May 2026, talk of his departure centers on future succession rather than any immediate change at the helm.

LIVE Mortgage Rates (what matters to borrowers today)

Mortgage pricing remains under pressure due to term yields,

• Unstable mortgage-backed security prices mean that even small drops in interest rates do not help borrowers much. Monthly payments remain high because of rising home prices, insurance, and taxes.

GCA Forums: I can standardize this section to present 30-year fixed, FHA, VA, and 15-year fixed mortgage rates from a consistent source, enabling readers to compare similar products effectively. Metals – Gold & Silver (and YES: silver at $80).

Silver went above $80, reaching a record close to $83.62 before quickly dropping. Even with this big drop, I think this is just a break, not the end of the trend.

Why the sell-off was so violent: CME margin hikes

On December 29, 2025, CME made traders put up more cash for COMEX 5000 Silver Futures, raising the amount needed for main contracts to about $25,000. This amount can change depending on where you trade.

When margins increase, traders must keep more cash on hand, which often forces them to sell positions to meet the new requirements.

1. This can make traders add cash quickly or sell some of what they own, which increases selling and pushes prices down even more.

Silver opened at $79.53 yesterday.” Why your number can be right, and feeds can differ.

Unlike stocks on the NYSE, silver does not have a single official opening. Each platform defines “open” differently depending on the instrument:

• spot (XAG/USD) (continuous OTC),
• COMEX futures (which have.
  Sunday night, Globex opens and has almost continuous trading,
• a specific contract month (Dec/Jan/Mar),
• other currency feeds.

$79.53 may be listed as the “open” on one platform, while another platform or instrument could show a different first-traded price.

Paper vs physical silver

The following explanation may help clarify this for readers :silver (futures, options, unallocated accounts, many ETFs):

• You own a financial product linked to the price of silver.
• These are often bought with borrowed money, especially futures, and can be affected by higher margin requirements.
• Most contracts are settled with money, and only a few end with actual silver being delivered.

Physical silver (silver coins/bars/allocated vaulted metal):

• You possess your own metal, which may be selected, serialized, and stored in a professional vault.
• Physical silver costs extra because of making, shipping, dealer fees, and how much is available.
• During periods of market stress, premiums on physical silver can increase even when the ‘paper’ market experiences significant declines. Reuters published a ‘how silver is traded’ explainer during recent volatility, which serves as a valuable resource for readers seeking to understand the distinctions among trading vehicles such as futures, ETFs, coins, and bars.

The “Big Banks Short Silver” narrative — especially JPMorgan

The following facts can be reported with confidence:

1. Big companies, including banks, often bet against the market in futures to protect their inventory and client trades. Public data shows some of these positions, but it is still hard to know exactly how much they are betting against the market. There is no way for the public to check JPMorgan’s exact position right now.

DOJ: JPM agreed to pay ~ $920 million in settlements tied to schemes involving precious metals and U.S. Treasury futures.

CFTC: record $920 million order for spoofing/manipulation (press release).

How to phrase it on GCA Forums without overreaching.

People in the market say that without daily updates on positions, it is not possible to know how much big banks betting against silver affect price swings in the ‘paper’ silver market. However, JPMorgan has faced major legal problems in the precious metals futures markets before.
It is especially accurate, defensible, and builds reader trust.

Housing Market: what’s happening and what’s nextMarket tensions

Right now, the U.S. housing market is very competitive and uncertain. High prices and interest rates make it hard for buyers to qualify, and many people who want to sell feel stuck in their homes. More sellers are offering price cuts and concessions, but overall supply remains tight.

• Affordability: While pricing continues to attract buyers, current wage levels in a robust labor market help offset elevated home prices.

Is a housing bubble on the way?

The answer is not clear, since the market is still settling down. Here are the two main ‘bubble’ risks: Risk A: Price Collapse. High unemployment and more people being forced to sell could make prices drop, but this is not likely right now because of current lending rules and fixed loans. Risk B: Affordability. The amount people pay compared to their income is important over time. Demand is strong, but most loans go to people with regular W-2 jobs.

A key data point from late 2025 shows pending home sales may have increased, suggesting there is still demand at certain price and payment levels.

Mortgage Industry Survival: “Dry Pipeline” Reality

Recent reports from loan officers across the country show there are fewer strong borrowers, more unusual cases, and a weaker economy.

What has been impacting lenders/brokers:

• reduced margins
• increased operating costs
• increased fallout (borrowers are shopping hard)
• and increased manual and more files that need to be handled by hand, such as those with debt-to-income issues, credit problems, or self-employed borrowers are experiencing increased cancellations and pipeline volatility, a trend that has been reported across the industry in 2025.parison

NEXA has been described in public reporting as a “mega broker” and one of the largest broker networks. The company rebranded in 2025 as NEXA Lending, reflecting a positioning evolution rather than a shift to retail, according to coverage.

For readers, the main point is that NEXA’s size and flexible broker setup help in hard times. Still, the industry struggles with high costs, not enough homes for sale, and more expensive customer leads.

Auto Financing and Rates Forecast: Rates and What Borrowers Face

Auto financing remains expensive for the average U.S. borrower:

• Experian reported average rates of around 6.80% (new) and 11.54% (used) (as of mid-2025).
• Bankrate’s survey puts the average 60-month new car financing rate at 7.01% (December 2025 update).
• As of December 29, 2025, Navy Federal Credit Union posted rates “as low as” certain levels, depending on your credit tier.

Forecast: 2026 Themes and Pressures

The Cox Outlook for 2026 says that affordability will be the main issue, and deals and lower prices will return as more cars become available.

Chicago +Corporate Exits + Sanctuary City: Immigration/ Sanctuary City Legal & Funding Pressure

Chicago and other big cities are under political and legal pressure because of immigration rules and sanctuary city policies, with actions by the DOJ and ongoing disagreements shaping the national conversation. What to report: “Companies leaving Chicago because of Taxes.”

Chicago’s business climate is under renewed scrutiny as city leaders debate revenue solutions, including a possible head tax, and face warnings about the city’s competitiveness. Key HQ moves support this narrative:

• Boeing: HQ moved from Chicago to Arlington (2022 announcement).
• Caterpillar: HQ moved from Deerfield, IL, to Irving, TX (2022 announcement).
• PEAK6: HQ moved from Chicago to Austin (effective Jan 1 per reports).

Rather than speculating on the exact number of companies relocating, it is more accurate to say that big company moves and ongoing tax debates make people think more businesses are leaving.

Current Trump and the voters

Recent polls and aggregators indicate that Trump’s net approval rating is declining further as December 2025 progresses. (Nate Silver)

Kash Patel (FBI Director): “on the way out?”

Controversy surrounding Patel has sparked rumors and calls for his resignation, but he has denied these claims. Reports from early 2025 indicate Patel denied the rumors. Current coverage describes his situation as under pressure, but with no confirmed exit.

Pam Bondi (Attorney General): “on the way out?”

Bondi has faced criticism and calls to resign due to ongoing controversy and the DOJ’s dissolution. However, there are no official actions or records indicating she is leaving, so she remains under political pressure but has not been confirmed to be exiting. Powell’s term as chair continues until May 2026. Any discussion of his early departure remains speculative. While there is ongoing debate regarding his potential successor and future role on the Board, this does not suggest an imminent exit.

What GCA Forums readers should watch for next

• Following the CME margin adjustments, monitor whether premiums on physical metals remain elevated, even as futures prices continue to fluctuate.
• Rates: If the 10-year yield remains near 4.1% and spreads stabilize, mortgage pricing could improve; however, lenders will likely remain cautious due to ongoing volatility.
• Housing: By spring 2026, inventory and affordability will shape the market. Increased inventory could help stabilize conditions, but concerns about a bubble persist, and payments remain the key factor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-uE-QifwwE

Stock market data for SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

• The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF trades on the US market as an exchange-traded fund.
• The current stock price is $484.50, representing an increase of $1.04 from the previous close, which reflects a 0.21% gain.
• The previous opening price was $482.24, with today’s trading volume at 1,255,410.
• Today’s high is $484.57, and the low is $482.00.
• The most recent trade occurred on December 23, 2023, at 7:50:06 AM PST.

GCA Forums News, live as of December 23, 2025.Current Top Stories

• Wall Street activity slowed before the holiday following a strong GDP report that pushed Treasury yields higher.
• Gold and silver reached record highs as investors sought safe assets and anticipated policy changes.
• Tariffs have affected both consumer confidence and factory activity.
• Consumer confidence declined, while factory output remained stable.
• There is bipartisan criticism regarding the release of the Epstein Files, and Dan Bongino is expected to resign as FBI Deputy Director.
• Rumors indicate possible changes involving FBI Director Kash Patel.
• Earlier reports said Trump wanted Patel removed.
• Trump has publicly supported Kash Patel, and the White House has denied the removal rumors.

LIVE US Markets (Most Recent Available Today in USD)At the market opening at 9:30 ET, the Dow Jones stood at 48,299.87, down about 0.13%

• The S&P 500 opened at 6,873.80 and the Nasdaq at 23,407.70.
• Live ETF proxies: DIA (Dow proxy) and SPY (S&P 500 tracker) are at 686.05, up 0.18%. QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 proxy, is at 619.71, up 0.08%.
• Bonds, The Dollar, & Rate-Cut. The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.19% following the strong GDP report.
• Markets continue to expect a rate of at least 2% in 2026, though near-term expectations have moderated.

Mortgage rates are currently in the mid-6% range and fluctuate daily.

• Mortgage News Daily (daily index): 30-year fixed ~6.33% (daily update)
• Freddie Mac weekly survey (latest): 30-year fixed 6.21% (as of Dec 18, 2025)
• Freddie Mac weekly survey (latest): 15-year fixed 5.47%.
• Buyers are sensitive to rate changes and remain cautious about refinancing, including cash-out or debt consolidation, until rates decrease and remain low.
• Gold and silver prices continue to rise as the year comes to a close.
• Gold led, with its spot price peaking at $4,497 and settling near $4,500.
• Silver also increased rapidly, reaching record prices above $70.

Key factors include shifts in the dollar and yields, geopolitical risks, expectations for more accommodative central bank policies, and central bank purchases.

U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy is currently balancing strong GDP growth with the effects of tariffs. GDP growth exceeded expectations, though there are some caveats.

Q3 GDP was approximately 4.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations.

A 43-day federal shutdown delayed several data releases, so markets are relying on older information.

Today’s data indicate that tariffs are increasing uncertainty and prices, affecting real costs even as overall growth appears strong.

• Consumer confidence fell to 89.1 in December (according to the Conference Board), the lowest level since tariffs were implemented in April, as consumers expressed concerns about job security and rising prices.
• Manufacturing production was flat in November.
• Reuters notes that tariffs have disrupted some sectors, with higher import costs harming certain industries and benefiting others. Reuters quoted
• Chairman Powell said that inflation overshooting can be attributed to Trump tariffs, which is important for those tracking mortgage rates.
• Finance chiefs surveyed by Reuters expect prices to rise by 4% or more next year, with tariffs remaining a major concern.
• Independent estimates from Thomson Reuters suggest that tariffs are likely to depress growth, increase inflation, and reduce household spending.
• Inflation risks from tariffs could push long-term yields higher, making it more difficult for mortgage rates to decline and for the Fed to cut short-term rates.

Housing Market Forecast: Monitoring For Potential Downturn and Financial Crisis Risk

Most forecasts for 2026

Most forecasts for 2026 predict a gradual recovery, rather than a sharp decline.

• Realtor.com anticipates average rates of approximately 6.3% in 2026, a 2.2% increase in prices, slight growth in sales, and improved inventory levels.
• Redfin expects home prices to rise by about 1%, a modest increase due to limited affordability.
• Zillow predicts mortgage rates will remain above 6% in 2023, based on market outlooks.
• CBS, based on market outlooks, anticipates an average mortgage rate of about 6.3% next year, with city-specific price declines.
• Forced selling, excessive credit, and overbuilding are the main risks for a crash similar to 2008.
• Many analysts believe the U.S. is currently in a favorable position, but several key points remain: inventory is relatively limited in many markets.
• There is a large number of fixed-rate owners.
• Underwriting standards are stricter than those in 2008.

Market conditions can change rapidly, and significant corrections remain possible.

• If unemployment forced sales.
• If buyers vanish due to credit tightening.
• If there are new bursts of real estate construction or investor liquidation.
• If there is an affordability shock.

The most significant near-term risk is not a housing bubble, but factors such as inflation, tariffs, deficits, and yield volatility, which could slow the economy. These factors directly affect consumer spending and confidence. They also impact business investment and real estate affordability, particularly through fluctuations in interest rates.

Politics and Washington: confirmed developments versus rumors. Confirmed Bongino stepping down

• Reuters reports that FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino will step down in January, marking the end of a brief and turbulent period.
• Rumors persist regarding Kash Patel’s potential removal, although reputable sources offer limited confirmation.
• Reuters (Nov. 26) reports that Trump is considering Patel’s removal, based on MS NOW reporting; however, Trump and the White House have publicly supported Patel.
• There are rumors regarding Pam Bondi’s competence, but the following are confirmed facts.
• It is a well-documented fact, reported by major news outlets, that there has been significant political backlash over the DOJ’s handling of the Epstein file releases, including bipartisan disregard for the law and threats of contempt if the DOJ fails to comply.
• While it is unclear whether this reflects incompetence, the controversy and backlash are making headlines as the year comes to a close.
• These developments are unfolding in the final days of the year. the year.

Mortgage Rate Forecast

Consumers and buyers can expect rates to decrease, although not in a consistent pattern or manner.

• Even if the Federal Reserve lowers rates, risks from inflation and tariffs may keep mortgage rates elevated, resulting in persistently high rates.
• Forecasts suggest home affordability will improve significantly by 2026, as incomes are expected to rise faster than home prices.
• For homeowners, current trends in stocks and metals indicate that investors are avoiding risk.
• Two variables of movement in the equities and “jobs data.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8T1LHEDJkN8

• This discussion was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by  Sapna Sharma.

Here is your current news summary for Great Community Authority News (GCA FORUMS NEWS). It features live-style updates on major sectors for December 8-14, 2025. The summary covers the economy, interest rates and mortgages, precious metals, housing, the Federal Reserve, the political realm, and other relevant updates for GCA Forums members and Gustan Cho Associates’ clients.

LIVE INTEREST & MORTGAGE RATES: Mortgage rates this week:

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.28% to 6.314%, depending on the region.

Rates increased slightly this week, which contradicted expectations regarding the Fed’s reaction.

15 year fixed ~ 5.59%, refinance rates ~ 6.83%.

Mortgage rates are higher than the historical average. Many home buyers are cautious. Rates should remain above 6% Fahrenheit for 2026.

In the housing market, buyers are moving to so-called “refuge markets”—areas like Grand Rapids, St. Louis, and Cleveland, which offer more affordable housing and greater inventory.

LIVE DOW JONES & STOCK MARKET NEWS: This week’s market update

• Record achievements continued mid-week, with major stock market indexes and the S&P 500 closing the week at all-time highs.
• Last week, the Dow fell as the week began, as large industrials and consumer stocks saw selling pressure.
• Futures heading into the week also exhibited a downward trend, driven by selling pressure.
• Some sector weakness appeared in the tech sector, with companies like Broadcom and Oracle.
• However, some stocks, such as Tesla and Eli Lilly, showed sector strength.

Individual Movers

Carvana (CVNA) experienced volatility but ended the week on a positive note, with optimism surrounding its potential inclusion in the S&P 500.

Fed Rate Cuts

Weaker job reports fueled speculation of possible Fed Rate Cuts, which proved bullish for the stock market.

Market Dynamics

• Precious metals are also impacted as the market expects a Fed Rate Cut.
• Both markets are experiencing broader macro uncertainty.
• Investors focus more on the safety of the investment.
• Discernible assets are attractive to investors, but this attractiveness diminishes if they lose value.

Gold

Gold held steady at approximately $4,300 per ounce by the end of the week, with demand for safe havens supporting stable pricing.

• Gold rose 2% over the week.

Silver

One of the biggest and most notable assets of 2025 is silver.

It surged past $60/oz and hit an all-time high of about $64.64.

Supply is low and industrial demand is high.

Intense speculation has led some markets to believe that silver has, at times, surpassed Microsoft’s market cap.

Lt. Gen. Daniel Hokanson (through October 29): The whole thing began as a training exercise that the East Coast U.S. military command (EUCOM) conducts.

It then became a genuine command and operational mission, whose complexity and difficulty had never been seen before.

• Le Monde has the closest estimates of the number of illegal crossings.
• Since September 24, we have video footage of 708 crossings, and the number has continued to grow since then.
• Arthur Ashkin of the U.S. has done extensive work, including one notable case, a notable success, and a series of successful implementations.
• Le Monde is well aware of border crossings, and the destruction of U.S. military equipment is a common tactic of insurrections.

LIVE FEDERAL AND NATIONAL POLITICAL NEWS: Letitia James & James Comey Cases

• Explanation: Recently, James Comey, Former FBI director, and Letitia James, New York Attorney General, have been federally prosecuted and indicted.
• They are awaiting trial in 2026. However, as of this week, there is no confirmed source in the public domain that refutes this.

The Supreme Court And Federal Power

• The United States Supreme Court has given the green light to change the scope of law, granting the United States President the power to appoint members to a board of independent agencies.

Federal Policy Issues

• The Senate has failed to pass legislation that would reduce health care costs.
• This has a direct effect on the ACA tax credits and the greater insurance market.

Other National Highlights

• Texas has launched a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative.
• Florida has designated a Muslim civil rights group as a foreign terrorist organization, a move challenged by activists and civil rights groups.

SANCTUARY CITY AND IMMIGRATION NEWS

• Federal and state courts are once more active in shaping the immigration enforcement arena: A judge has upheld New York’s charter that limits civil immigration arrests at state courts, thereby sustaining state sovereignty protections claimed by NY AG Letitia James’ office.

SUMMARY TAKEAWAYS FOR GCA FORUMS MEMBERSMARKETS:

Stocks: Mixed and positive. Major indexes reached record highs by mid-week, adding to the positive momentum in the sector.

Precious metals: Silver prices are at an all-time high, while gold prices are expected to increase due to the Fed remaining dovish.

Rates: Mortgage rates, currently around 6.3%, are on the higher side, contributing to increased housing unaffordability. However, there are improvements in the housing market, particularly in terms of housing inventory.

Economy: The Fed is in a rate-cutting cycle, but signs of divergence are emerging; consumer sentiment is down.

Politics: Significant judicial and administrative power developments; Letitia James/James Comey remains under no clearly justified acquittal.

Real Estate: More buyers are moving to affordable markets; NAR data indicate older buyer profiles.

Immigration: Judicial decisions regarding sanctuary cities continue to offer the same state protections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXakP5ZaO5k&list=RDNSIXakP5ZaO5k&start_radio=1

• This discussion was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.

GCA FORUMS NEWS – National Market & Political Report: Thursday, December 11, 2025FOMC Rally

The FOMC Rally continued today, and it’s earning its holiday name as it enables all the major indexes to experience historical highs on the same day.

The Dow closed out the day with a record high of 48763.5, gaining 543.99 points with a percentage increase of 1.12%.

Following that, the S&P 500 closed with a record high of 6,905.12 with a gain of 14.07 with a percentage increase of only 0.2%.

The Nasdaq Composite lagged behind and closed at 23,515.12, with a 0.05% decrease, marking the only index that did not reach a record high.

The reason for the Nasdaq Composite’s lag is due to the poor performance of the tech giant Oracle (ORCL), which continued its steep post-earnings drop.

Following the descent that Oracle has seen, the entire tech sector has seen similar declines.

Recent FOMC results and reactions are leading the market to experience significant increases in value, which in turn raises levels of investor confidence.

From a borrower’s perspective, the increases seen in the market directly reflect the value of retirement accounts and the overall investor confidence.

Both of these concepts directly correlate to an active and confident consumer market, specifically in the housing sector.

Additionally, positive equity in homes allows homeowners more flexibility, enabling them to sell, buy, or invest in additional properties.

Transitioning Now to Monetary Policy Developments: Rates

At the December Federal Reserve meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by an additional 0.25 percentage points, bringing the target range down to 3.5-3.75% – the third cut for the year 2025. Chair Jerome Powell reiterates that there is “no risk-free path” and warns there are downside risks to the labor market, even as inflation continues to cool.

In the bond market, there are lower yields, for instance;

10 Year Treasury Yield: Pulled down to the low 4 percent range (with a low but flexible rate from 4.1-4.2%).

This directly connects to mortgage pricing.

Based on the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey published on the day.

• 30-year fixed rate mortgage: At 6.22% which is an upward trend from 6.19% of the previous week, but remains conservatively below the YTD average of 6.62% for 2025.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Standing at 5.54%

Freddie Mac affirms that rates are “close to 2025 tops”, and therefore a lower rate supply is presenting itself to those buying and refinancing relative to the previous 7-8% peak rates earlier on.

Addressing Implications for GCA Forums readers:

• Purchase loans: Payment estimates are better compared to previous high points for 2023-2024.
• However, they remain extremely high when considering the previously ultra-low levels available before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Refinancing: Homeowners with hard-money, non-QM, or high-rate loans now have stronger opportunities to transition into DSCR, FHA, VA, or conventional products, especially if they have built equity or improved credit since their last loan.
• Investors: Lower long-term yields help pencil DSCR loans better—cap rate vs. debt costs are tight, but the math looks better than it did with 8%+ loans.

Labor Market: Jobless Claims Jump, But Economists See “Noise.”

Weekly Jobless Claims reported an increase of 44,000 to 236,000, the largest weekly increase in almost 4.5 years.

However, most economists blamed the seasonal adjustment issue and pointed to the four-week average (~217,000) as evidence of the labor market’s continued stability.

Continuing Claims fell by 99,000 to 184,000. Economists describe a “no-fire, no-hire” market, one that cools without collapsing.

For borrowers, this means:

• Job stability and gaps in employment are still being watched closely by lenders.
• Underwriting remains sensitive to income instability for manual underwriters, non-QM borrowers, and those with prior credit events.

Tariffs and the U.S. Economy: $1,200 Hit per Household, Study Says

A study suggests that the recent tariffs on imports will exacerbate the already growing inflation in the U.S. economy, resulting in an additional $1,200 in expenses for every American househA recent report by Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee of Congress finds that import tariffs at the start of Trump’s second term cost the average household about $1,200 from February to November 2025—$159 billion total.llion.

Here are the report’s main findings:

• The highest average U.S. tariff rate increased from 2.4 to about 16.8 percent, the highest U.S. tariff rate since 1945.
• Democrats argue that tariffs act as a tax on families, increasing prices and worsening the cost-of-living crisis.
• The White House points out that tariffs are protective of U.S. jobs and lure trillions in investment to American manufacturing, and correct lopsided trade deals from decades past.
• Economists, including Kimberly Clausing, labelled the tariff package as one of the largest effective tax increases on U.S consumers in a generation, as it is forecasted to cost $1,700 per household on an annualized basis.

The consumers, housing, and tariffs:

• Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, ranging from building materials and appliances to autos and electronics, and also raise the interest rate to 3.0 percent for the year, as of September, according to the CPI inflation.
• Increased input costs make new construction for builders unmotivating, which keeps home prices sticky even when the demand for construction is on the decline.
• For DTI ratio management of GCA Forums-type borrowers, a small increase in basic cost goods, such as cars, groceries, or other materials, could determine whether you are approved or referred/denied.

Housing Market Check: More Inventory, Slightly Softer Prices

Active Listings: Up 12.6% yearly

Median Price: 415,000, a year ago down 0.4%

Price per Sq Ft: 1% year-over-year decrease

Percentage of Listings with Price Cuts: 18% up 1.3% from the previous year

Some areas of the country, such as Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Louisville, are considered refuge markets. These are the areas where buyers choose to purchase a home because they are cheap and the price per square foot is increasing.

For homebuyers and investors: Days on market are brief in top cities.

This means that buyers have more options compared to previous years, 2021-2022, and consequently, they have more negotiating power.

Refuge markets have rising rents, with a rate of 6-7%.

This means that investors using DCSR loans will benefit, and the interest rate will compare favorably to others, such as 15-20%.

For homebuyers looking to purchase a larger home, there are more realistic contingent offers.

Precious Metals: Gold Near Records, Silver Goes Parabolic

It really does look like we are passing a stressful test for the gold market.

• Gold’s current market price is about $4,233.75 an ounce, up a fraction from the previous day’s price.
• Silver, at $62.46 per ounce, has also reached a record.
• Silver has more than doubled in value this year, reflecting a significant global shortage.
• USA Gold’s daily report attributes the price rise to an increase in interrelated industrial demand for solar energy, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics.
• Supply from the silver mines is now 20% insufficient, and physical silver is scarce at any price.

And for those watching mortgages and residential real estate:

• Gold and silver prices serve as indicators of hedging against currency and inflation risk, as well as major policy looseness.
• Nervous equity investors tend to invest in real assets.
• When financing is viewed as very expensive, as it is currently relative to the 2010s, more is expected to be allocated to real estate and precious metals.
• Both are long-term store-of-value.
• Switching gears to political media coverage?

You inquired specifically about the extramarital relationship allegations around VP JD Vance and Erika Kirk (wife of the recently deceased Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk), and if Vance is the alleged father of her child.

Here is what we have so far in terms of responsible reporting and fact-finding:

• Internet speculation and rumors suggested a relationship of infidelity between Vance and Erika Kirk, based on campaign event pictures of them together.
• Vance and Erika Kirk have had no relationship in the fact-checkers’ justice; the other reports summarized to describe a Snopes review.
• Rumors have no basis other than out-of-context videos and a conspiratorial presence on social media… There were no documents or even corroborating testimony.
• He was a guest in an interview where Vance spoke about the speculation and was even quoted in NBC News, stating,
• “There is a great misconception that the insecurities presented in some of the rumors and speculations are of great concern to all, and they should be carefully evaluated and disposed of.”

That suggests:

• There are NO espousing allegations or even legitimate papers that purport to an affair or illicit fatherhood in the public domain.
• A thorough speculative analysis currently exists, primarily in the cyberspace of conjectures and partisan opinion reporting.
• Considering our safety and accuracy policies, as well as the current situation, we believe the allegations of infidelity are false and have been thoroughly checked and disproven by the involved fact-checkers.

Owen’s Criticism – ERIKA KIRK

Infighting on the right is, and has been, very real, and the feud between Owens and Erika Kirk is now a public matter.

Kash Patel, Dan Bongino & the FBI Controversy: Facts, Speculations, and Uncertainties

You have also expressed interest in Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, the FBI, the use of the FBI jet, the SWAT, and whether they are “on their way out”. Here is what the journalism world has to offer:

The Patel $60 Million FBI Jet

• Patel is accused of using the FBI’s approximately $60 million Gulfstream jet to travel to multiple destinations during the performance of his country-singer partner Alexis Wilkins.
• Several former FBI employees alleged that Patel crossed the line, and the FBI is now investigating this case.
• The same sources claim that Patel supposedly deployed elite tactical teams from the FBI, including Wilkins and her entourage, which raises questions about what other duties should have been the priorities.
• One story recounts how Patel became angry when the staff didn’t have an FBI-branded jacket prepared for him in Utah, with aides characterizing the incident as revealing Patel’s enormous ego and insecurity.
• The FBI has refused to comment on specific protective measures, and Patel has denied any wrongdoing, arguing that his travel and security arrangements were entirely reasonable and mission-oriented.

Dan Bongino’s Leadership and Criticism from the Rank and File

In a different but widely publicized story, a stream of reports collated in People and the Daily Beast all describe the same as a highly critical portrait of the FBI’s leadership in Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino, as follows:

• The report discusses an FBI that some of its agents describe as “rudderless” and “politicized.”
• Several current and former agents cited in the report claim that Patel is “in over his head” and that Bongino is inexperienced to lead a large federal law enforcement agency.
• One former counterterrorism agent, whose words were recorded in the report, straightforwardly describes Bongino as “a clown” due to his hyper-partisan media narrative, his troubled past, and his tendency to exaggerate overly headline-seeking cases.

Patel and Bongino have not been publicly announced as having been fired or pushed out. However, there is:

• Not an internal culture report, this is negative.
• plus many pending congressional inquiries on jet usage and resource dissemination,
• Plus many more available.
• Many analysts are wondering how long they can remain in their positions without performing their jobs correctly or introducing new leaders.

Are They on “Bad Terms” with Trump?

Public reporting does not have a simple yes or no answer to this:

• Some reports frame Patel and Bongino as loyal Trump allies under pressure, especially after controversies like the mishandling of Epstein-related documents and major leaks.
• Trump is angry is a speculative opinion, and the leaks are mostly opinion and gossip, not facts.

So the most accurate summary is:

There is serious controversy and internal dissent around Patel and Bongino’s leadership at the FBI, including specific allegations about misuse of travel and security resources.

Their future is uncertain, but as of today, there is no confirmed decision to remove them from the list.

Big Picture: What Today’s News Means for GCA Forums Members

Putting it all together for borrowers, homeowners, and investors:

• Rates: The Fed’s cuts, along with lower 10-year yields, lead to conventional rates around 6%, while FHA/VA rates are even lower.
• This is much friendlier than the 7-8% peaks; it is especially beneficial for borrowers with past credit events, who rely on manual underwriting, and flexible lenders.
• Tariffs & inflation: On overall inflation, tariffs function as a stealth tax on the economy.
• They inflate the prices of some goods, even as overall inflation remains in the 3% range.
• This reduces the DTI and available savings for the down payment.
• Jobs: The labor market remains solid, although it is losing some momentum.
• Lenders now place more emphasis on stable, consistent income documentation, job permanence, and avoiding major job changes during the application process.
• Housing: Additional listings, combined with slight price reductions and lower interest rates, result in better negotiating power for the buyer; this is especially true in refugee markets with relatively affordable housing.
• Noise vs. Signal in Politics: Personal rumors, such as the JD Vance and Erika Kirk affair, are just that; they are largely unverified gossip.
• On the other hand, underlying the key elements that shape the mortgage market are hard facts, including Federal Reserve policy, tariffs, inflation, employment, and housing inventory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUIqhbm3K70&list=RDNSqUIqhbm3K70&start_radio=1

• This discussion was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.

GCA Forums News For Saturday, December 6, 2025LIVE UPDATES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

6,852.34 (value at 12 pm EST)

Change: +19.91 ppp (0.29%)

The market is showing a small upward trend, but investor uncertainty about the overall economy and future growth means any gains may be limited. This could lead to more cautious investment decisions and slower economic expansion.

PRICE OF PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices have reached a key resistance point.

Silver prices remain within their usual range.

Gold and silver prices remain volatile, indicating ongoing economic uncertainty. This volatility may prompt investors to seek safer assets and signal instability in broader financial markets.

INTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Rate: 3.75% – 4.00%

The federal funds rate was cut by 25 basis points in October.

At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, there is an 80% chance of another 25-basis-point rate cut.

Powell stated that a rate cut is not a certainty.

Most Federal Reserve members point to the current 3% inflation rate, which is just above their 2% target, as a reason to pause further rate cuts.

INTEREST RATES + MORTGAGE RATES

Home mortgage rates remain high, partly because the Fed has not yet decided whether to cut rates. This uncertainty is keeping many buyers out of the market, making homes less affordable and slowing down real estate activity. Continued high rates reduce home sales, limit construction, and can lead to decreased consumer spending in related sectors.

CONSUMER & RETAIL NEWS

FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE HOLIDAY SEASON HAS RECORDED CONSUMER SPENDING ABOVE $1 TRILLION

The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales in November and December to top $1 trillion for the first time, reaching between $1.01 and $1.02 trillion. Higher spending can boost retail profits and support job growth, but economic effects depend on whether this growth is driven by higher prices or increased demand.

Key takeaways:

Spending rose by 9.1% from 2023 to November 2023. Black Friday saw a significant jump, with $11.8 billion in online sales.

Online spending on Thanksgiving Day hit a record $6.4 billion, up 5.3% from last year. Although revenues increased, economists suggest the rise may be largely due to higher prices from inflation, so actual sales volumes may not have grown significantly. This raises concerns about true consumer buying power and the health of demand, which could impact future business planning.

Spending with buy-now-pay-later services in November and December is expected to reach $20.2 billion, up 11% from last year.

K-SHAPED ECONOMY REFLECTED IN CONSUMER SPENDING

Consumer spending shows a K-shaped recovery in these ways:

Higher Income Households: Spending increased by 2.7% until October.

Lower-income households: Spending increased by only 0.7%.

Lower-income households spent less on non-essential items and sought discounts, but maintained a moderate level of optimism.

Retailers like Walmart are gaining market share among all income groups, unlike Target and some others.

HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE NEWSTHE MORTGAGE INDUSTRY AWAITS BANK OF JAPAN POLICY

The mortgage and real estate industries are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. If the Fed implements a negative interest rate policy, it could bring more money into the sluggish housing market, potentially increasing home sales and related services. Currently, the market is stalled, as first-time buyers wait, current homeowners remain put due to low rates, and homes remain unaffordable, even though prices are lower than in past decades.

Existing homeowners are constrained by lower rates. While mortgage rates remain high, housing is more affordable than it has been in decades.

President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Powell, referring to him as “Too Late Powell” in relation to concerns about the U.S. housing market. The White House states that new policies could result in significant household savings through 2025, potentially increasing discretionary spending and supporting economic growth.

DEVELOPING: LEADERSHIP OF THE FBI UNDER RISKKASH PATEL SCANDALS

FBI Chief Kash Patel is facing scrutiny due to multiple controversies.

Traveling Government Jet:

Patel has been investigated by Democratic Congress members for what he claims is work-related travel on the FBI’s Gulfstream to watch:

His Country western singer girlfriend Alexis Wilkins performs at a wrestling tournament at Pennsylvania State University.

Several trips to Nashville, home to Wilkins.

Las Vegas trips where Patel has a residence.

Texas for social events with his companions.

Details of Security:

MS NOW reports that Patel has, for the first time, assigned FBI SWAT team members to protect his girlfriend. This decision has been regarded as controversial.

Patel has also reportedly instructed agents on at least two occasions to provide transportation home for one of Wilkins’ friends after social events in Nashville. Patel is said to have contacted the detail leader to ensure the order was carried out.

The former FBI agent Christopher O’Leary said: ‘‘It is not only inappropriate to assign FBI SWAT personnel to a security detail to protect his girlfriend, but also to assign them to babysit his girlfriend’s friend, which is at a whole other level and shows absolutely no judgment or integrity on the part of Kash Patel.’’

The FBI jacket affair

A 115-page report from the National Alliance of Retired and Active-Duty FBI Special Agents and Analysts states that after conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated in September, Patel, who was traveling to Utah, declined to leave the plane until he was provided with a medium-sized FBI raid jacket.

When a female agent offered her jacket, Patel again declined to leave because it lacked the appropriate Velcro patches.

SWAT personnel involved in an ongoing investigation provided him with some of their patches.

Internal FBI Report:

During the Patel and Bongino era, the FBI has been described as lacking direction. Current and former personnel characterize Patel as “insecure,” “in over his head,” and lacking the “necessary experience.”

Colleagues have called Bongino “something of a clown.”

The agency is reportedly losing focus on key issues and placing greater emphasis on social media presence over substDuring the Kirk investigation, Patel reportedly went on an “expletive tirade” against Special Agent in Charge Robert Bohls in Salt Lake City.n Salt Lake City.

White House Response:

White House staffer Abigail Jackson stated that Patel is dedicated and regarded as a key member of the President’s team, working to uphold integrity within the FBI.

Trump has denied he is considering firing Patel, telling Fox News, “I am very proud of the FBI. Kash…they have done a great job.”

POLITICAL NEWS JD VANCE AFFAIR ALLEGATIONS DEBUNKED

Social media claims that Vice President JD Vance is having an affair with Erika Kirk have been fact-checked and disproven by Snopes and other outlets.

A claim originated from an October 2025 Turning Point USA event, where someone reported receiving a hug from a well-known person and alleged inappropriate behavior.

Major news outlets have been informed about these complaints, but none have reported on them because the claims are not substantiated by facts.

Conservative podcaster Candace Owens said over the weekend that President Emmanuel Macron told the press he had the right to order her assassination and even included “one Israeli” on the list. iFBI Director Kash Patel told Megyn Kelly that the FBI has no information about possible foreign threats to Owens, but they are not ignoring her claim.s no intention of ignoring her claim.

OTHER BREAKING NEWSASSASSINATION OF CHARLIE KIRK

After conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated in September, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson was arrested. Since then, Patel has faced numerous questions about potential oversight failures in this highly controversial case.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IMPACT

The Federal Government Shutdown has caused several effects:

Delayed release of key economic data due to the shutdown has disrupted the Federal Reserve’s ability to make informed policy decisions, potentially leading to less effective economic management. Funding for SNAP, the food assistance program, was put on hold, resulting in lower spending among low-income consumers. ing less.

When federal spending is delayed, the private sector loses income. This can lower business revenue, slow hiring, and hinder economic growth, especially in industries that rely heavily on government contracts.

The holiday shopping season is very important, so delays are especially harmful right before the holidays.

CDC VACCINE CONTROVERSY

The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) caused a lot of debate when it changed its recommendations for vaccinating all infants against a virus that affects the liver.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Experts have differing opinions about what will happen to the economy soon. Some point to strong consumer spending, with retail sales up 4.3% since September 2024, while others focus on four key concerns: Inflation is now at 3%, whereas the Federal Reserve’s target is 2%.

Job growth is slowing, and although unemployment remains low at 4.3%, it is gradually increasing.

Tariffs: Prices for some consumer goods are rising because of President Trump’s tariffs. Surveys show 60% of people think tariffs are causing more than 10% inflation on these goods.

Consumer Sentiment: Although people are spending a significant amount, most still have a negative outlook on the economy.

Reports indicate that the Trump administration is developing a national security strategy that portrays European allies as weak, with the aim of restoring U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

LOOKING AHEADIMPORTANT DEADLINES

December 9-10: FOMC Meeting (Federal Reserve) – Announcement on the interest rate.

December 15: House Democrats’ deadline for Kash Patel travel record requests.

December 31: Closing date for the holiday shopping season. Final retail sales data to be published.

GCA Forums News is committed to responsible, evidence-based journalism. We correct misinformation and check claims with at least three independent, reputable sources.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9QOS3jYiYY

GCA Forums News – LIVE Market, Mortgage, and Housing Report: December 2, 2025, Just Before Noon U.S. Markets

Here’s what’s happening in the U.S. markets just before noon on Tuesday, December 2, 2025:

Stock Markets: All three major indexes are up—Dow by 0.4%, S&P 500 by 0.3%, and Nasdaq by 0.6%. Each is close to record highs.

10-Year Treasury Yield: Around 4.1%, which is a bit higher than yesterday.

Mortgage Rates: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is between 6.1% and 6.3% nationwide, while the 15-year fixed rate is 5.5%.

Gold: Gold is trading at approximately $4,200 per ounce, down 0.3% from the previous price but still near a six-week high.

Silver: Silver is trading between $57 and $59 per ounce, close to a record high after big gains in 202Jobs: Unemployment is around 4.4%, the highest in recent years during this election cycle. The recent federal government shutdown has made data less reliable. Growth and Inflation: U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% to 2.0% in 2025, with inflation likely in the high 2% range.

LIVE BREAKING NEWS WHICH SHOULD MATTER TO EVERY HOMEOWNER AND BORROWER

OECD: Global Growth, but 2026 Will Be the Key Year. The OECD expects global GDP to grow by 3.2% in 2025, with the U.S. growth rate at 2.0%. While the economy is still expanding, it is doing so at a slower pace than in 2024. This could mean fewer job opportunities and slower income growth for borrowers. Rising tariffs and trade tensions are pushing up inflation, which can reduce purchasing power and make goods, services, and mortgage payments more expensive. Real terms.

The OECD predicts that rate cuts will end by 2026, and policy rates will stay above pre-COVID levels. This means loan and mortgage costs could remain higher for longer, offering less relief to borrowers who don’t expect the very low rates from 2020-2021 to return soon. Higher rates will keep borrowing costs high for homeowners and buyers, affecting monthly payments and affordability, even if rates drop slightly.

Two Federal Reserve officials have recently commented: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic notes that, while the labor market is cooling, inflation remains a significant risk and is above the Fed’s 2% target. He says we should not cut rates too quickly, as that might be counterproductive, as price pressures would build up.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins states that tariffs and trade disruptions in a fragmented global economy may further exacerbate inflation and contribute to increased interest rate volatility. November 2025 Financial Stability Report: the following ([Federal Reserve:

High levels of asset prices (equities, real estate, and debt securities).
High business and residential debt in certain areas.

Persistent concerns due to AI-induced market exuberance, geopolitical instability, and cyber threats. The Federal Reserve is moving carefully. Rate cuts are likely, but they’ll happen slowly. If your mortgage rate is 7% or 8%, refinancing could be beneficial, but consider whether the savings are worth it, as the cuts will be gradual. Borrowers should set realistic expectations and not wait for extremely low rates to return.

LIVE STOCK MARKET: DOW JONES, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Major Indexes

As of the middle of the trading day, **all three major U.S. indices are in the green:

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Up 0.4%, trading near its record closing high of 48,000 set on November 12, 2025.

S&P 500: Up 0.3%. Approximately 300 stocks are down, resulting in a mixed but positive market breadth.

Nasdaq Advances for December

Most of Nasdaq’s 0.6% gain came from a rally in tech and crypto-linked stocks, which started after a rough tech rout in the first half of the month.

AI Bitcoin stabilized after sharp declines, trading between $80,000 and $90,000. This supported a rebound in crypto-related stocks. Infrastructure, BlackRock maintains a bearish outlook for long-term Treasuries in 2026.

Growth in the AI sector and stock market is leading to increased household spending and higher demand for luxury and larger homes.

However, if long-term Treasury yields remain high to finance AI and budget deficits, mortgage rates may also stay elevated. Even with Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates may not fall as much as expected, potentially impacting housing affordability.ds at 4.12%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.12%, up slightly as investors shift their allocations from bonds to riskier assets. The yield is expected to be 4–4.5% for much of 2025, and lower than the 2022-2023 predictions, as has been the case for much of 2025. (Goldman Sachs) The 10-year Treasury is the main benchmark for 30-year fixed mortgage rates. When interest rates rise, mortgage rates typically follow suit and increase accordingly.

LIVE Mortgage Rate Snapshot (National Different surveys show small differences, but the average is steady, consistent:

Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage (conforming, owner-occupied):

6.2 to 6.3\% overall, according to Freddie Mac (6.23% weekly going to November 26 ) and like ratings from marketplace trackers. (Freddie Mac)

Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgage:

5.5% on average nationwide. Current 30-year fixed rates are in the low to mid 6% range. That’s down from 7%, but still much higher than in 2020. levels.

What does this mean for an average borrower? If your current rate is over 7%, refinancing to the mid-6% range could lower your payments, especially if your credit or home value has improved. Lower payments can help your budget and free up money for other needs.

For first-time buyers, rates in the 6% range may seem high compared to 2020. But recent price drops in many markets can help offset these costs, making homes more affordable overall. The old price is $ 4,218. Spot gold is priced at $4,218 per ounce after reaching a six-week high, down 0.3%. Volume is slightly lower than yesterday, but open interest is rising, indicating new contracts are being opened. However, inflation is above 2%.

Continued strong demand from central banks and investors amid rising geopolitical and tariff risks.

Silver: Stealing the Show

Silver has surged to near-record levels, now just under $59 per ounce, more than double its previous price of $29.80.

Rampant demand for solar panels, EVs, and electronics.

Ongoing severe supply chain disruptions in London and other regions.

These price trends are particularly important for metals used in the housing and consumer product industries.

High silver prices are expected to increase costs for solar panels and electric vehicles, impacting:

Home solar versus system imports

DTI calculations during EV purchases.

Record gold prices underscore ongoing concerns about inflation. Persistent inflation may keep mortgage rates from falling as expected, potentially limiting improvements in affordability for homeowners and buyers.

There is increased demand for hard assets such as real estate.

LIVE ECONOMY: GROWTH, JOBS, & INFLATION Jobs: Some Slow Down, But Not A Collapse

Due to the current federal government shutdown, official BLS reports are limited. The Chicago Fed estimates unemployment is about 4.4% for October, the highest in about four years and a slight increase from September. The job market is showing signs of cooling. FS and job separations are at a small increase.

Context: The unemployment rate is ~4.0-4.1% for 2024. Thus, we are higher, but we aren’t at crisis levels. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics])

Growth & Inflation

U.S. GDP grew by about 2.8% in 2024. Growth of 1.7% to 2.0% is expected for 2025, indicating a slower but still positive trend.

The expected growth in the CPI is approximately 2.8%, which is slightly above the Fed’s target of 2% inflation for 2025.

Translating for Borrowers

The economy is growing, but at a slower pace.

* The Fed’s careful, rather than aggressive, approach to rate cuts.

* Long-term yields and mortgage rates are, for the moment, higher than what has been recorded over the past few years before COVID.

LIVE HOUSING & REAL ESTATE: COOLING PRICES, BUYER LEVERAGE

Sellers Cutting Prices as Market Cools

A new report highlights a shift in market leverage.

A weakening housing market is leading to significant discounts for buyers, as many sellers are cutting their asking prices to stay competitive. Many listings had price reductions in October. Homes that sell after a price cut stay on the market a median of five times longer than those priced right from the start. The number of delistings and price reductions is rising. Inventory levels are higher than those seen during the extremely tight conditions of the COVID-19 period.

By the end of 2025, buyers will have gained more control, especially in markets that overheated during the pandemic.

How Mortgage Rates And Price Cuts Affect Affordability

Prices are no longer on the rise as they were during the COVID period, and in some markets, they are either staying the same or experiencing small declines. (The World Property Journal)

Despite price cuts, buyers are affected by mortgage rates above 6%, resulting in much higher payments compared to 2020. GCA Forums Response:

First-time Buyers: How this market is different and what is in your favor:

More inventory to choose from

More price reductions

Less competition in the form of bidding wars on properties

In this market, careful underwriting is crucial to mitigate potential payment shocks resulting from current mortgage rates.

Move-up Buyers & Investors:

Home sellers may need to be more flexible on pricing or be prepared to offer concessions. Home buyers can benefit by negotiating closing costs with sellers. This can be combined with GCA’s flexible closing cost programs, which require manual underwriting and have no overlays.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MORTGAGES AND REAL ESTATE, SIMPLY PUT

1. Rates have improved. Rates have improved, but they are not yet at historically low levels. They have improved to the mid-6s, but the 3s are not in sight.

Current rates make refinancing 7% or 8% loans a worthwhile consideration.

2. The housing market is shifting from a strong seller’s market to a more balanced environment.

Lower prices, longer market times, increased inventory, and improved negotiating power for buyers. (The World Property Journal)

3. The Fed is worried about inflation and financial stability, not just growth

The Fed’s approach is measured and gradual, not a rapid decline. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

4. Precious metals screaming inflation uncertainty

Gold=4200/oz. Gold at $4,200 per ounce and silver at $59 per ounce indicate continued investor interest. wers with issues (low credit, recent lates, high DTI)

Many large banks are tightening their lending standards. Lenders like Gustan Cho Associates are still losing aggressively within agency and non-QM guidelines, manual underwrites, Chapter 13, recent credit events, and more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEVcnkjGVpk

NATIONAL BREAKING LIVE NEWS REPORT- MONDAY NOVEMBER 10 NOVEMBER 10 2025

GCA Forums News- Live Housing, Mortgage and Rates, Economy, Elections, and Political Crisis

• As of Monday evening, November 10 November 10, the country’s finances, mortgage rates, housing data, and politics have all been impacted simultaneously.
• Here is your GCA Forums focused LIVE national breaking news.
• Update concerning the LIVE stock market data, interest and mortgage rates, economic numbers, job data, and rapidly changing mortgage and housing forecasts, along with the fast-paced politics surrounding homebuyers and homeowners.

DOW JONES AND STOCK MARKET LIVE DATA AND FIGURESLIVE STOCK MARKET & DOW JONES, NASDAQ, SP 500 UPDATES

• As the government shutdown approaches resolution, Wall Street traders have shifted their focus to interest rate cuts, driving the market higher.

The figures as of the close on November 10, 2025:

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:

Marking another record zone, the closing total of the Dow achieved was 47,330.42, an increase from 46,996.71 on Friday.

LIVE S&P 500:

The S&P 500 finished this week at 6,817, a slight increase over the previous week.

LIVE NASDAQ:

• The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite finished at 23,340, despite turbulence in tech stocks.
• Commentators are stating that stocks rallied on hopes that Congress is close to ending the shutdown and that inflation will be 3%.

LIVE MORTGAGE RATES & INTEREST RATESLIVE INTEREST RATES: 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

• About 4.1%, and throughout the days, it has remained around this interest rate.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield is considered the standard for 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
• The Fed and market trackers have recently indicated the rate is hovering around 4.11%.
• While this remains below the peaks observed in 2023-2024, it is still high enough to affect housing affordability for many purchasers, as well as to keep mortgage rates elevated.

LIVE MORTGAGE RATES TODAY – 30-YEAR AND 15-YEAR FIXED

• As of Bankrate’s daily survey for Monday, November 10, 2025: November 10-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.26%.
• Average 15-year fixed mortgage rate: 5.62%.
• Rates have increased this week as well, but remain under the peaks for late 2023 and early 2024.
• Lenders are closely monitoring reprices each time the Treasury yield shifts due to changes in inflation data and the Fed’s rate-cut expectations related to the headlines surrounding the shutdown.

To most GCA borrowers, specifically FHA, VA, non-QM, and DSCR investors, these levels indicate:

• The potential for payment shock after refinancing from the old loans is priced at 3% to 4%.
• More strained debt-to-income ratios, even in lower-cost regions.
• A sustained effort to pursue creative non-QM products, buy-downs, and APR temporaries instead of the non-existent “ideal” rate.”

REAL-TIME ECONOMIC INDICATORS: GDP, CPI, INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT

Real-Time GDP Economic Growth Update: The economy rebounds in 2025

• In the second quarter of 2025, the real GDP grew at a rebounding rate, rebounding from the contraction experienced in the previous quarter—Ced in 2025-Q1.
• This marks the beginning of recovery from the slump.
• Private economists, such as those at the Atlanta Fed, are predicting 4% GDP growth.
• Although progress remains slow, growth is evident.

Real-Time CPI and Inflation Update

• Most have anticipated September 2025 reports on the CPI to be released after the economy reopens, so that vital indicators could be measured.
• The CPI is most summarized at the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s assertion of 3% as of September.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) year-over-year 3.0%

• The monthly CPI in September increased by 0.3%.
• This is sharper than the Fed’s 2% goal, but still a significant distance away from triple digits, which was the case during the past decade.

No matter how far the markers pivot, consumers still feel the pain:

• Food prices increased by 3.1% over the past year.
• Energy is mixed, but the cost of gasoline and other types increased a lot a few months ago.
• Shelter inflation is high, but prices remain very high for both renters and homeowners.

LIVE JOBS AND UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS

• The BLS jobs report for August is on hold due to the extended period needed for the shutdown.

The most recent complete report states:

• The unemployment rate in August 2025 was 4.3%.
• Nonfarm payrolls: In August, added a mere 22,000 jobs, indicating sluggish demand in the employment.
• The Chicago Fed reports that, given other economic and employment indicators, the unemployment rate for October 2025 is estimated to be 4.35-4.40%.
• This is the highest in central estimates of more than 4 years.

The combination of the extended period needed for the shutdown and the gently softening, but not crashing, job cycle heightens concern for:

• Slower wage growth.
• There is an increasing financial burden for lower-income earners.
• If the economic slowdown worsens, there will be an increase in delinquent payments and defaults on credit cards, automobiles, and possibly housing.

LIVE HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET FORECASTSHOUSING MARKET LIVE: PRICES, INVENTORY, AND AFFORDABILITY

National housing data show a two-speed market:

• Many metropolitan areas continue to experience home prices at or near record highs, particularly in areas where inventory is limited.
• Higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are finally forcing some price cuts and longer days on market in marginal areas.

When it comes to 2025–2026 housing forecasts, most analysts continue to expect:

• Real estate prices are expected to remain relatively stable nationwide, while inflation-adjusted prices are likely to decrease.

Increased regional divergence:

• Demand for affordable housing in job-rich regions is expected to increase.
• Demand will decrease in high-tax, expensive regions and downtown areas.
• The higher demand for FHA, VA, non-QM, and DSCR investor loans is expected to persist as buyers continue to navigate through high interest rates and stringent bank underwriting.

This economic environment is helpful for **GCA borrowers in the following ways:

• FHA/VA manual underwriting, as well as non-QM, bank statement, and DSCR loans, will be easier to access for borrowers who do not meet the income thresholds for traditional bank loans.
• Monitoring property tax assessments and homeowners’ insurance, which are rapidly increasing as a proportion of the monthly mortgage payment.
• Pre-approvals and TBD underwriting for buyers will make it easier for them to lock in a purchase sooner.

LIVE AUTO MARKET: REPOSSESSIONS, CAR DEALERSHIPS, AND SKYROCKETING AUTO PRICES

Despite not having any new November repossession data, the earlier 2025 reports from the Fed and credit bureaus still show:

• Mortgage loans are in delinquency at the highest rate for borrowers with lower credit scores, among others.
• The institution offers auto loans to subprime borrowers under aggressive terms and has extended them for several years.

At the same time:

• Prices for new and used cars remain stubbornly high, despite having eased from the pandemic peak of 2020.
• The average new vehicle transaction price remains above the 2020 levels and is significantly higher than those of 2020.
• Additionally, records confirm that households are struggling, as those who are overextended are more likely to miss payments.
• Payments associated with vehicles are currently at an all-time high.
• Recent quarters have seen wholesale units hit and used chains, as well as big public dealerships from companies like CarMax, undergo increasing volatility in earnings receipts and borrowings due to diminishing wholesale costs and reluctant debtors.
• While “Billion in losses” headlines reflect the economic outlook, the structural weakness of the market and the auto finance market is the full story.
• This is an increasingly significant problem for outstanding consumer balances and lenders in the looming situation of rising unemployment.

The ticket prices of the precious metals live on moneymetals.com as of the moment are as follows:

• The wave of political anxiety as the shutdown approaches day 40 is starting to get more attention.
• As for today, November 10, 2025.
• November 10per ounce (LIVE GOLD): Around 4,080 to 4,110 per ounce, up around 2% on the day and more than 55% year-to-date, per various trackers.
• Silver price per ounce (LIVE SILVER): Hovered around 50 dollars, with several sources reporting 49.9 to 50.5 and about 3 to 4% gains today alone.

Gold and silver buying are being used to hedge against:

Government Shutdown.

• The possibility of mistaken policies regarding inflation and rate cuts.
• The political mess around immigration, sanctuary cities, and the New York mayoral transition.

Live Trump Administration on Government Shutdown and the Economy

Update on Government Policy: Deal Is Close, But Not Finished

• The country is in the midst of the longest federal government shutdown in US history, now lasting over 40 days.

Over the weekend and to Monday:

• The US Senate voted 60 to 40 to move forward with a compromise bill that funds the government until the end of January and provides back pay to federal workers.
• The contract guarantees a future vote on expanding subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, angering progressive Democrats who claim the party leadership caved.
• House members have now been instructed to prepare, as Speaker Mike Johnson plans to convene a special session on this bill.
• The Trump administration stated that the President disagreed and would be open to signing the bill, but continued to press Congress for more drastic alterations to health care subsidies and expenditures.
• Economists estimate that the shutdown is reducing the economy by approximately one-fourth of a quarter’s GDP, stifling the revenue of small contractors that rely on the government, and harming unpaid federal employees and the public who rely on these services.

LIVE POLITICAL NEWS: ICE, BORDER PATROL, AND SANCTUARY CITIES BORDER ENFORCEMENT AND SANCTUARY CITY CRACKDOWN

Increased immigration enforcement is a hallmark of the Trump administration:

• A new Executive Order 14287, Protecting American Communities from Criminal Aliens, and a Justice Department list of sanctuary jurisdictions center cities such as Chicago and Los Angeles under ICE’s fire for their restrictive cooperation policies.
• The administration has also used National Guard deployments into cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, Memphis, and Washington, D.C., under the guise of supporting the enforcement of crime and immigration, raising significant legal and civil liberties concerns.
• Concurrently, border data has undergone sharp changes.
• From claiming approximately 238,000 illegal border apprehensions in FY 2025, down from 2.1 million the previous year, DHS now boasts border encounters at their lowest annual level since the early 1970s.
• The new, post-2025 record low of **roughly 30,561 total encounters nationwide occurs in October 2025, with an 80% drop from 2024.
• Critics argue that these figures overlook humanitarian concerns and advocate for more intrusive enforcement methods. At the same time, the administration claims that the strategy is finally securing the border.

LIVE ELECTION NUMBERS: ZOHRAN MAMDANI ELECTED NEW YORK CITY MAYORFIRST DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY

In the stunning upset of the week, Zohran Mamdni, a 34-year-old Democratic socialist and state assembly member from Queens, won the 2025 New York City mayoral election.

Important election figures:

• Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / Working Families): 50.4% of the votes.
• Andrew Cuomo (Independent Fight and Deliver): 41.6%.
• Curtis Sliwa (Republican): 7.1%.
• Voter turnout exceeded 2 million, which is the highest in decades.

Mamdani will be the:

• First Muslim and First South Asian mayor of New York City.
• The youngest mayor of the city in more than a century.
• First democratic socialist mayor of a major city in the US in contemporary times.

WHAT MAMDANI’S WIN MEANS FOR NATIONAL POLITICS AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

Mamdani had a very ambitious and aggressive agenda in his campaign that included:

• Rent freezes and stronger tenant protections.
• A minimum wage of $30 was instituted in the city.
• Wealthy taxpayers will have to share the burden of universal childcare, free bus transportation, and more affordable housing for low-income individuals.
• Nobody is more concerned than the moderates and conservatives.
• Many say he is the class warfare mayor, and they say capital will leave and public safety will decline.
• People like former congressman George Santos have publicly said they are leaving the city because of his evil agenda.

The attack on Mamdani is deeply symbolic of the Trump-Vance regime. This attack proves and reminds us that,

• There are unbridgeable cultural rifts that separate the largest cities in the country from the more conservative or neutral areas.
• Democratic socialist candidates have a reasonable chance of winning big office positions when the country is suffering from high housing costs and a wide income gap.
• The legal position of stripping Mamdani of citizenship has been suggested as an extreme response. According to legal experts, as reported by Al Jazeera, it is guaranteed to fail.
• Certainly, the harsh treatment of republicans is the only response that comes to their minds.

LIVE TURNING POINT USA UPDATE: CANDACE OWENS, ERIKA KIRK, AND JD VANCETHE CANDIDATE NARRATIVE

The conservative, youth wing of the movement called Turning Point USA has totally collapsed into itself with the assassination of their leader, Charlie Kirk, while speaking at Utah Valley University on September 10 September 10

• Candace Owens is in hot water after publishing a supposed leaked text in which Kirk is heard telling his friends that he is in danger and will be assassinated.
• Law enforcement has arrested a 22-year-old suspect, and while publicly dismissing the involvement of foreign governments, the speculation continues.

### ERIKA KIRK, JD VANCE, AND THE MEDIA STORM

Erika Kirk, Charlie Kirk’s widow, has surfaced:

• She is reportedly taking control of key TPUSA structures, as well as major fundraising arms.
• After saying that, she noticed a resemblance to her deceased spouse; there was a highly circulated emotional clip of her with Vice President JD Vance.
• They hugged at a memorial, sparking a great deal of discussion.
• Erika has called the criticism of her public grief and faith process brutal and unfair scrutiny.
• She hopes to be left alone and not have her actions and phrases scrutinized rigorously.
• Various social media angles have made attempts to fabricate personal scandalous allegations regarding some key conservative members.
• The major outlets have failed to produce any credible evidence; therefore, we will not engage in speculation.
• GCA Forums’ passion is verified reality, not internet hysteria.

LIVE GROCERY, CAR, AND COST-OF-LIVING PAIN

• Most households feel that inflation hasn’t stopped, even though the CPI has averaged 3% over the last year.
• Over the past year, food prices have increased by 3%, with prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising by more than 5%.
• Expenditures on electricity and gas have increased year on year, and fuel costs have recently spiked.
• Pending on cars in the absence of paid and unpaid overdue payments, alongside the increase in auto insurance packs, adds additional pressure.
• This translates into spending a lower portion of one’s income towards housing.
• Increased spending on debt, cash-out refinances, restructuring, and non-QM mortgages has become a common theme during consultations.

LIVE GUSTAN CHO ASSOCIATES AND SUBSIDIARY UPDATE

As other businesses are on hold, Gustan Cho Associates and its subsidiaries continue to operate in real-time on the front lines of the Capital and housing markets.

GCA FORUMS NEWS LIVE SNAPSHOT – NOVEMBER 1,0, 2025

FHA, VA, USDA, and Conventional Loans No Lender Overlays:

• Many banks have tightened their procedures.
• Overlays on borrowed money due to credit scores, debt-to-income ratios, and even manual underwriting are denial zones for an unprecedented number of banks.
• Not GCA: They continue to assist borrowers who are denied elsewhere.

Non-QM and DSCR Loans Increasingly Popular:

• Investors and self-employed borrowers squeezed by higher rates are turning to bank statement DSCR and alternative income products, and do not employ annual tax return underwriting.
• Neither do self-employed borrowers.

GCA Forums to Broaden Educational Boundary:

• GCA Forums is for daily live updates on housing, mortgages, and the economy.
• Stock market and Washington news are for traders and policymakers.
• GCA Forums News has a different model.
• GCA is for the rest of us.

Strive for Uncommonly High Fast Closing Ratios and TBD Underwriting:

• Gustan Cho Associates remains unwavering in its philosophy of TBD underwriting and fast close strategy, which favors GCA’s.
• It makes for a decisive choice on which property to buy.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR HOMEOWNERS AND HOME BUYERS

As of November 10, 2025, November 10 years to be in a bizarre concoction of these things:

• All-time high stock indices.
• All-time highs for gold and silver.
• Inflation remains at around 3 percent.
• A cooling job market and growing uncertainty.
• A housing market with high mortgage rates and scarce inventory.
• Political polarization and fierce immigration enforcement.
• Democratic socialist mayor-elect of New York City and conservative chaos at TPUSA.

The situation for borrowers and homeowners is easy to summarize:

• Stability is not guaranteed: Scheduling a home purchase based on anticipation of rate or home price changes is a poor idea.
• Winning is preparation: Tackle credit, gather documents, and investigate all possible financing options early.
• Knowledge is power: GCA participants can utilize Gustan Cho Associates and the GCA forums to assess live housing, mortgage, and macroeconomic events, obtaining timely evaluations.
• The members of Gustan Cho Associates are ready to work with you to explain how today’s live mortgage rates and live economic data, coupled with recent political shifts, can help you buy, refinance, or invest.
• We share real numbers—not headlines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUYkiEEeox0

GCA Forums News – Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Daily Financial, Housing & Political Report for Homebuyers, Homeowners & Investors

LIVE MARKETS SNAPPED – Tuesday Midday. STOCKS

Late morning Eastern time, Tuesday, December 9, 2025.

• The DJIA is around 47,800, up about 0.2% (roughly 90 points).
• Investors are attempting to time the market as they await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, despite the release of weak economic data.
• The S&P 500 is near 6,850, holding steady or slightly higher today.
• The Nasdaq Composite is near 23,550, slightly lower as investors take profits following recent gains in major technology stocks.
• Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, many traders are taking a wait-and-see approach.
• Most expect a 0.25% rate cut, while recent labor market data shows some softening, even as inflation persists.

LIVE PRECIOUS METALS – GOLD & SILVER

Demand for safe-haven assets is rising because of geopolitical tensions among manufacturers, ongoing disputes over the Epstein files, and uncertainty about tariffs.

• Gold (Dec 2025 futures): ~ $4200/oz (last check 4,198.90, +0.28% for the day). ([The Wall Street Journal][5])
• Silver (spot) is about $60 per ounce (live spot was $60.05 at 10:37 a.m. ET), with prices ranging from $58 to $60 this week.

For borrowers & investors

• Elevated gold and silver prices show ongoing concerns about inflation, political uncertainty, and global instability, despite improving inflation data.
• For real estate investors, high silver and gold prices, combined with a risk-hedging mindset, often lead to increased interest in acquiring hard assets, such as real estate, particularly cash-flowing rentals with DSCR and non-QM financing.

LIVE ECONOMIC DATA & TARIFF IMPACT ON THE U.S. ECONOMY: Inflation, Jobs, and Economic Growth

January macro data releases highlighted the following:

• Core PCE inflation: about 2.8–3.0% YOY, the fastest in about 1 ½ years.
• Unemployment rate: about 4.4%. While higher than historic lows, this rate remains moderate. Consumer spending is slowing, with real spending in September flat after a 0.2% increase in August, as higher prices and tighter budgets impact lower- and middle-income households.

Economists increasingly describe this as a “K-shaped economy.” High-income households continue to spend, while middle- and lower-income families are cutting back and struggling to afford essentials such as food, rent, and energy. These groups are also the primary applicants for FHA, VA, and first-time homebuyer loans.

The Fed and the Effect of Tariffs on Prices

A significant body of research confirms that the 2025 tariff increases are contributing measurably to inflation:

• This year, a Fed St. Louis policymaker warned that Trump’s existing and proposed tariffs could add approximately 1.2% to the Fed’s inflation target, after some “second-round” effects have worked their way through the economy.
• PIMCO, the Tax Foundation, and other private sector analysts have estimated that a significant proportion (approximately 40–50%) of tariffs is eventually passed on to consumers, which translates to $1,000–$1,200, corresponding to higher prices on imported goods.
• Reports on consumer spending indicate that prices for household goods contribute significantly to high inflation, particularly for furnishings and clothing.
• Services inflation tends to be lower.
• More mortgage insight for borrowers and homeowners: tariffs make inflation harder to bring down, which could slow rate cuts.
• If tariff-driven inflation prevents the Fed from acting, mortgage rates and long-term bond yields may remain high for an extended period, even as the economy slows.
• Households already dealing with high inflation on food, fuel, and goods have less ability to handle higher mortgage payments, which affects their DTI ratios and chances of loan approval.

Now, let’s look at what borrowers are seeing with mortgage rates in today’s market.

National averages change daily, weekly, and monthly, but as of today:

• 30-year fixed conforming: ~ 6.30%, as stated by major rate trackers such as WSJ/Bankrate, which is the national average.
• 15-year FHA, 30-year fixed, and VA loans usually have slightly lower rates, but higher MIP or funding fees.
• Current estimates are around 5% to 6% for well-qualified borrowers.
• Jumbo, non-QM, and DSCR investor loans usually have interest rates 1-3% higher than prime conforming loans.
• The rate depends on credit score, LTV, reserves, and documentation type.
• Most of this difference stems from risk-based pricing, rather than daily averages.

For readers of GCA Forums:

• Borrowers with credit scores of 580 or 619, recent credit issues, or non-traditional income will likely get higher rate quotes than the national average.
• Still, DSCR refinances and non-QM loans are being approved at rates much lower than recent hard-money rates (15-20% or more).
• Another mini-refi wave may occur for borrowers with high mortgages of 7-8% from 2023 to 2024 if the Fed plans to cut rates, even slightly, while inflation continues to decline.

Housing real estate CHECK: PRICES, GAS, AND BUILDING COSTS

Home Prices Plateau High

Home prices in many major metropolitan areas remain well above pre-COVID levels.

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index shows national home sale prices just below their all-time highs, but prices have leveled off in recent months.

Post-COVID home prices remain high, even as mortgage rates decrease from their peak.

There are fewer bidding wars in real estate markets than in 2021-2022.

• While some say prices have “crashed,” mortgage affordability still depends on the rate, taxes, insurance, and the home’s sale price.

Gas Prices Are a Little Lower Nationally, with the average at just below $3.00 per gallon, according to AAA, which reports a nationwide average of $2.95 per gallon. This is the lowest average in over four years.

Lower gas prices allow some consumers to spend more freely and may improve the DTI ratios of borrowers who are close to qualifying. The extra cash flow from reduced fuel costs can benefit some households.

Tariffs, construction, and housing costs

Builders and remodels continue to report higher material costs, including steel, aluminum, and some imported components. These increases are driven by tariffs and supply chain delays. Research from housing and construction economic think tanks indicates that tariffs on construction goods increase project costs, slow new construction, and limit inventory, particularly in areas with existing supply constraints. For homebuyers, low inventory and steady demand keep prices elevated, even when mortgage rates are high.

LEGAL AND POLITICAL CONTROVERSIES: PATEL, BONGINO, BONDI AND THE EPSTEIN FILESKash Patel: FBI Director & Facing Allegations Over Jet, SWAT, & Girlfriend’s Protection

FBI Director Kash Patel is facing criticism regarding his use of Bureau assets. Reports concerning country singer Alexis Wilkins, whom Patel is dating, state that: as the People and other media summarized,

Commanding agents tasked with Wilkins to escort an inebriated classmate to the vehicle after a night at a bar in Nashville, and

Assigning SWAT-trained personnel to Wilkins’ security detail, thereby removing them from the local field office, and

Using a $60 million FBI jet to travel to Pennsylvania, during the time he is attending a wrestling match, in which Wilkins is the national anthem vocalist, 2 years after he criticized his predecessor for attending events with government aircraft.

• While the FBI has conceded at least some of those specifics, it has not acknowledged the allegations that the Bureau’s resources were misappropriated, nor has it questioned Patel’s sound judgment.
• Former agents, as cited in the articles, have described the use of aircraft and security details as unprofessional and indicative of inexperience.
• Advocates for civil liberties and oversight are calling for the FBI to allocate resources for congressional inquiries.

Dan Bongino: Deputy FBI Director Facing Internal Doubts

Bongino has become a highly controversial figure, particularly in his current role as Deputy Director of the FBI. As a former Secret Service agent and right-wing commentator, many question his suitability for the position, including:

• Reports from Axios and ABC News indicate that Bongino has had conflicts with Attorney General Pam Bondi regarding the Epstein Files Transparency Act, specifically concerning what the Attorney General should release to the public and the extent to which the documents should be redacted.
• According to The Guardian, some critics, both inside and outside the Bureau, view him as unqualified and too partisan.
• He is the first deputy director in FBI history without a background as an agent and has built a public image by promoting conspiracy theories, including claims about a “deep state” and election fraud.
• Reports indicate Bongino was demoted to “co-deputy director” due to the Epstein files issue last summer, which may have reduced his influence within the administration.

The Attorney General, Pam Bondi, has also been criticized from both sides of the aisle for her handling of the Epstein Files:

• She initially claimed that a “client list” was supposed to be on her desk, but later, the DOJ sent a memo affirming that no such document exists and that there would be no further updates—sparking fury from MAGA activists and politiTrump publicly defends Bondi, stating she is doing a “FANTASTIC JOB,” but several reports suggest he has been privately frustrated by criticism from his supporters. The release of grand jury documents under the new transparency law adds pressure on Bondi and the FBI to carefully consider what information to release next, if any. if any.

Are Patel, Bongino, and Bondi “on their way out”?

There is apparently significant internal strife:

• Bondi is under pressure to resign from some of the MAGA base.
• Bongino has already been demoted and is in constant conflict with DOJ management.
• Patel is under ethics scrutiny for the use of Bureau assets.
• So far, neither the White House nor the DOJ has made any official statement about removing any of the three from their positions.
• While their political standing appears to be weakening, talk of them being “on their way out” remains just speculation.
• If you have heard any rumors around town regarding Erika Kirk and Vice President JD Vance, you are not alone.
• Are there rumors surrounding Vance and Kirk concerning a pregnancy and Vance being the father of the child?
• Are there rumors suggesting that Vance is involved in a pregnancy and popular podcasters are discussing it?

What Was Caught on Film

The start of the whispers:

• On October 29, 2025, Charlie Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, currently the CEO of TPUSA, introduced Vice President JD Vance at a TPUSA event held at the University of Mississippi.
• Just weeks after Charlie’s assassination, they shared an emotional hug on stage.
• A lip reader said Vance told Erika, “I’m proud of you.”
• She replied, ‘It’s not going to bring him back.’
• Erika explained her attraction to Vance by saying that physical touch is her primary love language.
• She often expresses this by touching people’s heads or necks and saying, “God bless you.”

Independent fact checkers and mainstream publications have now addressed the rumors of the affair directly:

• Snopes looked into what social media posts speculating an affair and concluded that there is “no evidence” of Erika Kirk and JD Vance having an affair.
• The rumors stem from out-of-context videos and speculation, without any factual basis. The posts that went viral claimed Erika is “8 weeks pregnant” with Vance’s child.
• Hindustan Times clearly called the pregnancy claim false, quoting her as saying she wants more children, but in the future.
• JD Vance said he and his wife have a great marriage, are not worried about the rumors, and have just been having some fun with the negative comments.

JD Vance and Usha Vance

• The Vance couple has been most affected by the rumors and allegations.
• Once again, J.D. Vance feels the need to address the love he has for Usha Vance by mentioning his marriage to Usha.
• Even Vance knows and has addressed the speculation of his marriage to Usha.
• The Vance couple has been most affected by the rumors and allegations on the Internet.
• J.D. Vance feels the need to address the love he has for Usha Vance by mentioning his marriage to Usha.
• Vance is aware of the speculation.
• Social media is filled with memes, body language analyses, and unfounded theories about the hug, as well as claims that Usha Vance was not wearing a wedding ring.
• Nothing of conjecture, four of conjecture of social media activities and engagement, and none of them point to Usha Vance’s ring to have been a wedding.
• Such speculation about Vance and Usha’s marriage rumors refers to rumors about Vance’s marriage.
• The GCA forums editorial expresses the facts based on her marriage and allegations regarding J.D. Vance, suggesting a conspiracy relation between Vance.
• Currently, the situation is dominated by gossip and bias fueled by online speculation. mortgages and housing, the main point is this: if viral gossip spreads about you, treat it like a clickbait housing headline. Ignore it and stay focused on verified facts and your financial plan.

WENS VS. ERIKA KIRK – CONSERVATIVE CIVIL WAR IN PROGRESS

You also asked about Candace Owens’ criticisms of Erika Kirk. Their feud has become a topic of discussion in conservative media.

What Owens is saying

• Candace Owens has, on multiple occasions, since the weekend shooting of Charlie Kirk, been using her podcast and social media to question:
• • How has TPUSA been managing the shooting?
  • What are the internal leadership circumstances?
  • Why is Erika Kirk our CEO?
  • Why has Erika been so open on social media, and is now so open, and is it because of the shooting?
• Owens has suggested assassination conspiracy theories, possibly from foreign sources. Erika has downplayed these, saying people are free to criticize while grieving because “everyone grieves differently.” She also warned that speculation could hurt her family, their grief, or the movement as a whole.
• However, there have been no significant new developments from the other side, and Owens has only become more vocal in her criticism. She now questions whether Erika should remain president of TPUSA and has raised concerns about some donors, responding to Owens’ suggestion of a public livestream debate with TPUSA leadership.

How Erika and others are responding

• Erika has begun responding in more detail during interviews and on social media, defending her leadership and saying that Owens is being hurtful and unhelpful to Charlie’s cause.
• Other conservative voices, such as Allie Beth Stuckey, have pointed out that Owens’ theories lack documentation and appear to be based solely on assumptions and correlations.
• This feud is relevant to GCA Forums readers because TPUSA, its influencers, and MAGA media personalities have a significant impact on young voters and may influence housing demand in the Sun Belt and college towns.
• Bandonment of sub-seating economic and housing policy, all the while the real burdens of rent payments, mortgage down payments, and student loan debt remain.

THE ISSUES AT HAND – CONSUMER PROTECTION, GCA MEMBERS, & HOMEOWNERS AT LARGERates & inflation –

• Tariffs are adding price pressure, and a cautious Federal Reserve means mortgage rates are higher than in a typical scenario of a soft landing.
• Credit, income, and program selection (FHA, VA, or non-QM) are more important than ever.

Household budgets

Cheaper fuel prices help alleviate some of the pain.

However, increased spending on imported goods, clothing, and expensive durable items makes it more difficult for lower-income families to maintain their budgets, particularly those who rely on FHA, VA, USDA, and down-payment assistance programs.

Political volatility

Scandals involving Patel, Bongino, Bondi, and the public dispute over the Epstein files are fueling mistrust in institutions, including those regulating housing and lending. Increased oversight can delay or complicate efforts to streamline policies on QM and non-QM loans, bank capital rules, and fair lending.

Media Over-Dramatization vs. Actual Viral Stories: Erika Kirk, JD Vance, and Candace Owens Attract Significant Attention and Generate Revenue, but They Do Not Affect Key Metrics, Such as Employment

Can you document your assets and reserves?

What payment fits comfortably inside your budget, even if taxes and insurance rise?

GCA continues to monitor live markets, mortgage rates, and policy changes, enabling borrowers to bypass distractions and make informed decisions to buy, refinance, or invest, even amid ongoing media and global events.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUjQjhxTZJk

• This discussion was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by  Sapna Sharma.

GCA Forums News – Monday, December 8, 2025

Powered by Gustan Cho Associates – LIVE Markets, Mortgage & Political Watch

LIVE MARKETS & ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Wall Street today (market close, Monday)

All three major U.S. stock indices dropped today as investors await this week’s key Federal Reserve rate decision.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,739.32, -0.45% on the day.

S&P 500: 6,846.51, -0.35%.

Nasdaq Composite: 23,545.90, -0.14%.

Traders expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with CME Fed Watch indicating a 90% chance.

Key rate benchmark – 10-Year Treasury

The 10-year Treasury yield is now about 4.14%, just above last session’s 4.11% and slightly below the long-term average of 4.25%.

The previous session saw higher returns, which put more pressure on stocks and continued to affect mortgage rates and borrowing costs.

PRECIOUS METALS – GOLD & SILVER Metals, especially gold and silver, are expected to remain in the spotlight throughout 2025.25.

Gold

Earlier today, gold spot prices ranged from $4,200 to $4,210 per ounce.

Reuters reports that gold prices rose about 0.5% today to $4,215.69 per ounce, as many expect a Federal Reserve rate cut.

JM Bullion’s Gold Live shows that gold prices in the late afternoon tend to settle around $4,204 per ounce.

Silver prices are relatively stable, with prices earlier this morning around $58.19 per ounce, according to Fortune.

JM Bullion’s real-time data shows the spot price of silver at $58.39 per ounce as of 5:31 PM ET.

Silver’s value has nearly doubled this year and is now just below its previous all-time high of $59.

When the dollar weakens, the prices of gold and silver typically rise. anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar is expected in the upcoming months. This is the primary driver of the current high prices of gold and silver. Additionally, the high pricing of Gold and Silver is typically accompanied by long-term inflation and a lower real yield, indicating that this trend is likely to persist over the next 6 to 18 months. This has a particular significance regarding the direction of mortgage rates in the near future.

LIVE MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES Multiple national surveys are closely aligned today: mortgage (national average):

6.28~6.36%

Bankrate: 6.28% rate (30-yr fixed) in today’s daily survey.

Mortgage News Daily composite index:

6.36% for 30-yr fixed as of 12/8/2025.

GCA Forums News also reports 6.28% today.

15-year fixed: about 5.6~5.7%

Refinance 30-year APR: 6.7% according to Bankrate’s refinance index.

GCA Forums News Borrower angle: Current rates are much lower than the 8% highs from earlier this year, but still well above the lows seen during the pandemic. Borrowers may feel some relief compared to recent months, but homes remain less affordable than at the peak of low rates. Borrowers with strong credit applying for FHA, VA, or conventional loans may qualify for rates slightly below today’s national averages. Those with lower credit scores, higher debt-to-income ratios, or seeking Non-QM products should expect higher rates based on risk and loan type.

HOUSING & REAL ESTATE: LATEST DATA: Existing-home sales (NAR – October 2025, latest available)

Sales 4.10 million SAAR, +1.2% month-over-month, +1.7% year-over-year.

Inventory 1.52 million units, about 4.4 months’ supply.

Median price: $415,200, representing a 2.1% increase year-over-year.

Home prices – Case-Shiller index

US National Home Price Index (NSA): For September 2025, the home price index reached 328.94.

Recent peaks are exceeded.

The Twenty-city Composite is down slightly from all-time September highs.

Takeaways for GCA Forums News Readers:

Sales volumes are starting to stabilize, but they are still not back to the levels seen during the 2019-2021 boom years.

Home prices remain high because inventory is tight, metal and equity wealth are strong, and prices are near record levels.

Lower 6% interest rates, rather than 8% are provoking more refinance requests (both rate/term and cash-out), as well as renewed interest, particularly in cases where it’s possible for DSCR and Non-QM products.

Federal Reserve & Economic Background

Reuters reports market participants are focused on this week’s Fed decision and its impact.

Traders expect a 25 bps cut; attention shifts to the Fed’s dot plot and Powell. Investors should be careful about market price changes that don’t match what is expected from the Fed’s decisions and outcomes.

Vance, and Kirk, What Do We Know? Setting the Stage

Recent events have drawn attention due to viral videos capturing JD Vance’s gesture of support, following the Hug, Domin, and Kirk format, with community members and individuals with Christian values.

Probably because there was a TSPUSA event a few weeks following the assassination, where there was a group of people that included Christian nationalists and TSPUSA members or TSPUSA sympathizers.

There has been internet discussion interpreting the hug as reflecting intimacy, based on body language and timing after Charlie’s passing.

Speculation further arose because some People and less engaged users assumed the picture of Usha Vance without her wedding ring at another of her public appearances at Camp Lejeune was connected to the hug video.

Are JD Vance & Erika Kirk having an affair? Mainstream and fact-checking organizations have clarified the following:

Snopes and other fact-checking organizations, after reviewing the corresponding videos and photos, have found no evidence of an affair between JD Vance and Erika Kirk.

Analyzing the hug video, there was an overall lack of intimacy, except for an extended embrace in a moment of high emotion.

JD Vance has purportedly responded,

In an interview with People magazine, Vance claimed that he and Usha take pleasure in the viral speculation.

He stated their marriage has remained strong and addressed the gesture with Erika as a demonstration of emotional support after the assassination.

Erika has claimed separately that her love language is touch and defended the hug as a response to grief, not a romantic one.

Bottom line: There is no credible evidence that JD Vance and Erika Kirk are having an affair.

In this phase, the social media claims are unproven, and the most reputable fact-checkers tag this as false.

Pregnancy and the ‘JD is the father’ claims.

You specifically brought concerns regarding the rumor of Erika being pregnant and that JD Vance is the one responsible.

This is the most verified reporting, as we say in the journalism industry.

Viral posts claim Erika is 8 weeks pregnant and that Charlie Kirk had died 10–11 weeks beforehand, interlacing that timeline to insinuate possible cheating and/or JD’s infertility.

Numerous other platforms, including Hindustan Times and other European countries, assert that:

In several interviews, Erika has said clearly, I am not pregnant.

The line from her stating that she was 8 weeks pregnant has been interpreted incorrectly or out of context, as she referred to wishing she had been pregnant in correlation to when Charlie was killed.

No medical records or public statements, nor any legitimate source, have been documented to support the assertion that JD is the father or even that there is a pregnancy at all.

As for the JD, the father rumor:

This rumor has appeared online and has been described by multiple sources as lacking a credible basis.

The press, in reporting this idea, aims to expose the lack of evidence surrounding the rumor, rather than support it.

Based on the current evidence, this claim has almost no value. It is just a rumor without proof.

KASH PATEL & DAN BONGINO – FACING AN OPEN FIGHT WITH THE FBI: Patel & FBI Controversy: Multiple outlets are reporting on the suspected misuse of FBI assets and employees related to Kash Patel and his girlfriend, country singer Alexis Wilkins:

Security detail used as a rideshare.

MS Now, People, and others say Patel supposedly instructed Wilkins’ FBI leaders to drive one of her supposedly drunk friends home after she had been out for the evening in Nashville.

Sometimes the agents would drive her friends home.

Use of FBI SWAT & Jet for Personal Travels: Other reporting in The Times, The Daily Beast, and The Independent outlines the allegations against Patel that:

Wielded a SWAT team as Wilkins’ personal security during her stage performances.

Resorts and other related events.

Used a FBI jet that costs taxpayers almost 60 million dollars to travel to concerts, play golf, and go to retreats with Wilkins, whose critics are calling the trips “joyrides.”

His Response and Current Role with the FBI.

Patel and an FBI spokesman are NOT denying parts of the claims that the other FBI employees are reporting.

One spokesman has called the allegations “one thousand percent false.”

Patel argues that he is “entitled to a personal life.” which implies that the accusations against him and Wilkins are defamation of character.

Congressional Democrats, on the other hand, have initiated preliminary inquiries into his appropriation of aircraft and protection resources.

However, some of the more dramatic stories on social media, like reports of flight temper tantrums or petty demands, are not found in major media coverage and remain unimportant.

Dan Bongino’s Position and the FBI’s Internal Structures and Morale

Dan Bongino has served as Deputy Director of the FBI since March 1, 2023.

A lot of people who were in the FBI expect him to have some prior FBI experience before serving in the position.

Bongino has experience working in the NYPD and the Secret Service before transitioning to being a conservative media figure.

Recent Internal Morale Reports about Dan Bongino:

A report from the National News Desk, shared by many local TV stations, says some rank-and-file staff be the Patel–Bongino team as overwhelmed and view Bongino as not taking the job seriously.

ProPublica reports that Patel waived the polygraph requirements for Bongino and two other senior appointees, allowing them to gain access to classified information that they would not have received under the standard polygraph requirements.

Have come to believe that many of the claims made against them have not led to criminal charges.

This suggests that some agents and lawmakers think the Bureau’s leadership is unstable, which makes it harder to manage and supervise federal financial crime and mortgage fraud investigations.

CANDACE OWENS VS ERIKA KIRK – ONGOING FEUD

Specifically, why do you point out Candace Owens’ continued critique of Erika Kirk?

The state of documented reality is this:

For a little over a month, Owens has been conducting a public “inquiry on Charlie Kirk’s death and the administration and the finances of Turning Point USA (TPUSA), where Erika is now the CEO.

Recently, coverage from India Times, Hindustan Times, and Barrett Media has written of Owens accusing TPUSA and Erika of:

Having financial records withheld, including supposed transfers of $8.5M to a shell entity (these records, which she claims, remain unverified as of yet).

Betraying Kirk by covering the vital details of security negligence from the assassination of Kirk at his Utah event.

Poorly managing an attempted TPUSA livestream that would have been used to alleviate the concerns around his death, and often asked, was it Erika who gave the green light or wrote what is deemed to be the controversial” messages?

Owens has faced criticism, even from some right-wing supporters, for questioning what “kind of a widow” would act as Erika has.

And now:

Owens claims she still wishes to appear in a TPUSA event where she could address her concerns publicly. Some media claim she is attempting to settle the details of an appearance.

The present situation is as follows:

Owens’ claims, though substantial, rest upon allegations and theories:

Right-of-center media has Erika Kirk, JD Vance, Joe Rogan, and TPUSA management embroiled in an intra-movement struggle over transparency, allegiance, and conspiratorial musings.

JOE ROGAN

You specifically referenced Joe Rogan.

Rogan was a guest on JD Vance’s episode of The Joe Rogan Experience in 2024, well before the current controversy.

Since the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk, a new YouTube and social media phenomenon has emerged in the form of Joe Rogan reacting to Erika Kirk & JD Vance’s dating rumors and Joe Rogan getting suspicious after consulting a body language expert.

Most of this content:

Gossip commentary rather than an actual job. Most of this is gossip and commentary, not real journalism. Combined to create an article without any original reporting or primary sources.

I did not see any credible news outlet that asserts that Rogan has any proof of an affair or a child; he seems to focus his reporting on how his guests on that episode and the rest of his show react to the existing rumors.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR GCA FORUMS READERS

From a mortgage and real estate perspective:

Rates: Average 30-year fixed rates in the low 6% range mean buyers have less power than in 2020–2021, but things are better than at this fall’s peak.

For borrowers with rates between 7.5% and 8.5%, this could be a good time to consider rate-and-term or cash-out refinancing. fundamentals: A slightly better performance in existing home sales, coupled with still elevated readings from the Case-Shiller index, indicates that the market is cooling but not crashing.

Prices have support as inventory remains tight.

Macro Guardrails: Gold and silver are near record highs, reflecting the ongoing political turmoil at the FBI and increased conflicts within conservative circles.

These factors usually create a highly uncertain environment a backdrop encourages flight to hard assets like real estate.

This is especially true for those investors using DSCR and Non-QM structures.

The real, measurable story today is found in the market data above.

As for the sensational gossip surrounding JD Vance, Erika Kirk, Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, Candace Owens, and Joe Rogan, these stories remain unverified rumors.

Mainstream sources are fact-checking and rejecting the more dramatic claims about pregnancy, paternity, and confirmed affairs. Yury Note prices as of December 8, 2028, are derived from reports from Reuters, YCharts, and JM Bullion prices.

Current and historical prices are available for all financial products being offered in today’s ever-changing marketplace.

Silver has reached record prices in the past and can still be obtained as an investment for a fraction of its current value.

The current and rising prices of gold, along with daily calculated margins, can be obtained from numerous financial providers.

Current prices for gold and silver are available in a range of marketplace products.

Silver prices can be calculated for some providers of marketplace products. Mortgage rates, reports from BankRate, NAR, and Trading Economics.

Gold rises as the dollar softens, with investors bracing for a potential Fed rate cut.

Treasury yields fall, gold prices rise, while the dollar weakens.

Mortgage rates increase in advance of the meeting.

Silver reaches record prices. Gold prices are historically high and continue to increase daily.

Silver prices, which increase monthly, are calculated from historical daily prices effortlessly obtained from numerous financial providers.

Current prices for gold and silver are available in a range of marketplace products in today’s ever-changing marketplace.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwwrqNedoMg

• This discussion was modified 5 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dawn.

GCA FORUMS NEWS: Weekly Breakdown On A National Scale

Monday, November 30, through Sunday, December

Provided as a courtesy by Gustan Cho Associates & Subsidiaries

Here are the key updates in mortgage, real estate, politics, and policy that matter most to GCA Forums members, including homebuyers, homeowners, and real estate investors.

LIVE MARKETS WRAP – STOCKS & INDEXES MARKETS UPDATE Equities:

Stocks fell at the start of November as the technology and cryptocurrency sectors sold off. The Dow dropped about 40 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell around 20 percent.

On Friday, December 5, Wall Street closed moderately higher after inflation data suggested a possible Federal Reserve rate cut.

Week of 12 December

General market conditions and reports from the Federal Reserve show that most major analysts are optimistic, driven by:

Recent inflation reports are lower than the expectations of major market analysts and projected inflation.

The long-term Treasury bond yield is decreasing.

There is a greater chance of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, which would be the third in four months.

Forbes

The market is optimistic, thanks to the position. The market remains optimistic due to positive forecasts for money markets and inflation:

The weekly initial jobless claims report came out with an initial value of 191,000, the lowest initial report in three years, indicating a still-healthy job market, even as the job market continues to cool down in three sectors.

The third-quarter consumer report shows a positive trend, though spending is growing at a slower pace.

This indicates that the economy suggests the economy is cooling, even though overall spending is still rising, vesting with GCA Forums:

The market anticipates that The market expects the Federal Reserve to finish its tightening cycle soon and begin easing rates on mortgages and stocks.

LIVE MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATE SNAPSHOT This week (U.S.) overall average: 30-Year Fixed Rate:

December 4 (Thursday): 6.19% compared to the prior week, 6.23% and is the second week in a row (decrease).

15-Year Fixed Rate:

5.44% compared to the prior week, 5.51%

Snapshot of daily retail rates:

Survey of Bank Rate (December 7, 2023)

30-Year Fixed Purchase APR is 6.3-6.4%

30-Year Fixed ReFi APR is 6.7%

Zillow Home Loans (December 7 for borrowing customers who qualify:

30-Year Fixed Rate of 5.99% (6.17% APR)

15-Year Fixed Rate of 5.375%

Take Gains with GCA Forums News Borrowers and Investors

7% was the peak mortgage interest rate earlier in 2025, and the currenEarlier in 2025, mortgage rates peaked at 7%. The current national average is just above 6%, and some lenders offer 6% rates to borrowers with lower credit scores.imarily for:

Those Investors with hard money loans at 14% or higher.

FHA and VA borrowers who were previously unable to access funds when rates increased.

Most Place Predictions for 2026 at approx 30-year rates averaging the lMost predictions for 2026 expect 30-year mortgage rates to average in the low 6 percent range, with little chance of returning to 3–4 percent. a dramatic week for precious metals, a week vital for investors wanting to hedge against inflation:

Gold:

Approximately $4,200/oz late in the day, Gold reached about $4,200 per ounce late in the week, with spot gold rising to $4,212 on Friday, up 1% for the day but down 0.4% for the week as investors took profits ahead of the Fed meeting the star at around the high $50 range per ounce, but was also invested in at record highs.

This physical demand collided with a strong physical demand met with a widely available supply system for silver.is week not only reaffirmed gold and silver but also positioned itself to trade as a hedge against inflation, as well as confirmed expectations ranged for in 2026 as the Fed system eased to a more “real yield” for silver and gold.

LIVE FEDERAL RESERVE & ECONOMIC POLICY

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 10, and the market is pricing in another 0.25% decrease in interest rates, following two cuts earlier in the year.

Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting predicts **December core inflation to be 0.24-0.27% month-on-month indicating inflation is trending down but still deviating from pre-2021 norms.

In conjunction with:

Very low initial jobless claims.

Moderating consumer spending.

The Fed is attempting to achieve a soft landing, aiming to act. The Fed is trying to achieve a soft landing by slowing growth and lowering inflation without causing a deep recession. December 10 and suggestions of more cuts to come would mean:

Continued downward pressure. Mortgage rates are likely to keep falling, especially with the 10-year Treasury yield at or below 4.0–4.1%.n 2026 for borrowers currently locked in at interest rates in the upper 6’s to 7’s.

LIVE HOUSING, REAL ESTATE & MORTGAGE NEWS

Several housing indicators presented good news for buyers this week:

In the overview for the housing market for December, the following were noted:

Mortgage rates are down.

There are more homes for sale.

The market is moving at a slower, more manageable pace compared to what was expected in 2024. Ends for the week from realtor.com noted:

There is plenty of inventory.

List prices are starting to soften.

Buyers now have more power to negotiate sale prices, obtain price reductions, and request concessions due to current inflation.

Several research groups anticipate that, in 2026, the “Great Housing Reset” will result in:

The market is expected to become increasingly affordable over time.

Mortgages will be in the low 6% range.

Home sales are expected to become more stable and improve slightly, with no market crash predicted.

GCA Forums Members:

This is the thIng this environment, strong lenders with flexible programs like FHA, VA, Non-QM, DSCR, and bank-statement loans will help buyers and investors benefit from lower prices, even as rates return to normal levels. You see more seller-paid closing costs and rate buydowns in many markets, which will be beneficial for FHA, VA, and conventional buyers trying to purchase a home with limited cash.

LIVE POLITICAL & LEGAL NEWS – LETITIA JAMES & JAMES COMEY: New York Attorney General Letitia James

James had the mortgage-fraud case against her dismissed last week. The grand jury declined to re-indict her, effectively shutting down the Justice Department’s latest attempts to add other allegations.

Legally, this is not a jury ‘acquittal’ after trial, but in practice:

The case has been dismissed, and the prosecutors were unable to convince a new grand jury to proceed with the case.

As of now, James has a clean record in this case and will keep it unless a new case is brought.

Director James Comey

An early criminal case that claimed James Comey had filed a statement with Congress regarding media leaks and had committed perjury was dismissed on November 24, as the special prosecutor had been unlawfully appointed.

A few days ago, a federal judge granted a temporary restraining order against the use of any evidence obtained through the alleged illegal seizure of data from Daniel Richman, Comey’s former attorney and confidant, as it appears that the government may have accessed the data illegally.

Once again, to be clear, this is not a formal jury acquittal, but rather a dismissal of the charges, coupled with increased restrictions on the government’s use of certain evidence, will undoubtedly make it exceedingly difficult for the government to open a new case on this matter.

LATEST SANCTUARY CITY AND IMMIGRATION UPDATES: Sanctuary city policy and immigration were in the news all week:

The Department of Homeland Security report on December 1 said “Sanctuary New York” removed almost 7,000 noncitizen criminal offenders and violent offenders from New York, and the city didn’t cooperate with ICE removals.

An Axios report on Modification of the Immigrant Sanctuary Policy (MSIP) discussed “Sanctuary Cities 2.0,” which refers to the mayors of the cities pushing back against the escalated immigration enforcement actions and threatening to cut funds. This marks the beginning of yet another round of contentious federal–local conflict detention, and there is certainly no cooperation with ICE.

For members of GCA Forums in affected metropolitan areas (New York, Chicago, and other major sanctuary jurisdictions), these actions may potentially impact local public safety discussions.

City and state **budgetary concerns.

Medium-term property tax services and rates are important for both investors and homeowners, given the long-term risks to neighborhoods.

STORIES RELATIVE TO GCA VIEWERS.

Mega Media Merger: Netflix & Warner Bros

In a historic $82–83 billion deal, Netflix announced plans to acquire Warner Bros. franchises, including HBO and HBO Max. The deal is pending regulatory approval.

From Hollywood Unions and Creators, there is pushback due to:

Potential job losses.

Minimal active buyers of the content.

The merger would create a very powerful streaming company.

This is significant for GCA Forum’s self-employed borrowers and investors based in the media and tech industries.

California, New York, Georgia.

This industry consolidation is likely to lead to cycles of layoffs and more unpredictable income.

Consumer & Inflation Pulse

This week, Jamie Dimon stated that the US consumer is fine, but inflation is not going down.

This includes:

Strong Company Profit.

Ongoing consumer spending.

Ongoing cost-of-living pressure (Axios).

With holiday spending, the average consumer is expected to spend $890, indicating that people are cautious yet still active as the year comes to a close.

WHAT THIS WEEK MEANS FOR GCA FORUMS MEMBERS: Homebuyers and homeowners:

Mortgage rates have dropped over the past two weeks. The 30-year fixed rate from Freddie Mac is 6.19%, and some strong retail offers are now below 6% (Freddie Mac).

Housing inventory is rising, prices are softening, and buyers now have more leverage to negotiate prices, credits, and buydowns.

DSCR, Rates for DSCR, NON-QM, and Fix and Flip investors are stabilizing, and spreads are narrowing. This means it’s possible to refinance from hard-money rates in the teens to single-digit DSCR loans. The market may be entering a rate-cutting cycle, which could positively impact both risky financial assets and real estate values, and should hold some value into 2026.

To political and policy watchers:

The end of Letitia James’ federal cases and delays in Comey’s cases are new flashpoints in debates over the justice system and may influence the 2026 election.

Sanctuary city disputes and immigration enforcement remain major issues for large cities and their budgets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZuqcwvXBHo

I will share the most up-to-date news that matches your request, including updates on the JD Vance/Erika Kirk and Kash Patel/Dan Bongino stories, along with Candace Owens’ comments. This report is based on the latest available facts.

GCA FORUMS NEWS – DETAILED REPORTS ALONG WITH COVERS

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 05, 2025

MARKET OVERVIEW – LIVE DATA

Commerce and Trade (Stock Market)

The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% on Friday as investors reviewed new inflation data. The NASDAQ went up by 0.7%. The Dow closed at 34,850.94 on Thursday, down 0.07% or 31.96 points. The market responded positively to the PCE inflation report, despite the data arriving late. The report shows that inflation cooled in September.

Current Market Levels (December 05, 2025):

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,850.94

S and P 500: 6857.12 (+0.11)

NASDAQ COMPOSITE: 23505.14 (+0.22)

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased this month. Traders now estimate a 87% chance of a cut at the Fed’s December meeting.

Prices of Precious Metals

Gold

At 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, gold was priced at $4,237 an ounce, up $38 from the previous day.

Furthermore, this represents a $1,604 increase compared to the price of gold one year ago. Specifically, this is $1,604 higher than the price of gold exactly one year ago.

Silver:

As of 8:At 8:15 a.m. Eastern Time, silver was priced at $58.27 an ounce, an increase of $0.88 from yesterday, and has increased by over $26 in the past year.

Silver has doubled in price over the past year.

This is primarily due to a significant tightening of supply and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates further.

However, after an eight-day rally, traders took profits, causing silver to fall back from its all-time high.:

As of December 5, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained unchanged at 5.99%.

Freddie Mac reports that as of December 4, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stands at 6.19%.

Last week, it was at 6.23%, and last year, it was at 6.69%.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, adds: This is the second consecutive week that mortgage rates have taken a dip, and they’re half a percent lower than at this time last year.”

Refinance Rates:

The 30-year refinance rate has dropped to 6.62%, while the 15-year refinance rate is now 5.51%.

This section addresses the stories you requested and highlights key findings from my investigation.

JD Vance / Erika Kirk Allegation — NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE YET

The speculation alleging a romantic connection between Vice President JD Vance and Erika Kirk (the widow of the late Charlie Kirk) HAS not been confirmed.

Snopes looked into this particular claim and discovered there to be no credibility with the allegation that Erika Kirk has had a romantic connection with Vice President JD Vance.

The speculation centered on a Turning Point USA event on October 29, when Kirk introduced Vance, and they embraced on stage.

What Went Down

After Kirk introduced Vance at the event, he gave her a hug, which is where the rumor of the hug originated.

According to a limited White House pool report, Vance left the October 29 event with his wife, Usha Vance, and two U.S. Senators.

Kirk did *not* fly on Air Force Two according to Turning Point USA.

MAINSTREAM MEDIA IS NOT REPORTING THIS AS TRUE

You claim to have support from major newspapers, but all types of news outlets, including fact-checkers like Snopes, have investigated these claims and found them to be false. There is no evidence that Candace Owens or Joe Rogan has ever said JD Vance is the father of a child with Erika Kirk. These claims are disinformation.

.FBI Jet/Dan Bongino Claims – MIXED VERIFICATIONWhat is verified

FBI Director Kash Patel is reportedly dating country singer Alexis Wilkins. Wilkins is protected by a security team comprising FBI SWAT members in Nashville. Some reports claim Patel used the FBI’s $63 million jet to watch Wilkins perform the national anthem at a wrestling match in Pennsylvania.

Other reports say Patel told his security team to drive one of his girlfriend’s intoxicated friends home after nights out in Nashville, on two separate occasions.

The FBI’s Ben Williamson refuted these allegations entirely, claiming that the story is “hogwash,” and that he “could not find any verification or documentation of it whatsoever.”

The FBI Jacket Story:

There are mixed reports about an incident in Utah. One account says Patel refused to leave his FBI jet until someone brought him a medium-sized FBI raid jacket for the cameras, and that agents had to leave their duties to find one that fit. Patel told Fox News the jacket story is “100 percent false.” He added that an agent gave him a jacket, and he was happy to wear it.

Dan Bongino Criticism:

A 115-page internal report, prepared by currently serving and retired agents, detailing the state of the FBI during Patel’s leadership, stated that it was “dismal,” “all f—ed up,” and a “rudderless ship,” with the director being “in over his head.” The report also contained the opinion that the Deputy Director Dan Bongino is, in their words, “some kind of a clown.”

Bongino has worked as a New York City police officer for two years, served 12 years in the Secret Service, and led a 38,000-person agency, despite having no prior management experience or FBI background.

Candace Owens and Erika Kirk

Since Charlie Kirk’s death in September 2025, Candace Owens has made accusations about his death and Turning Point USA. However, she has never accused “Erika Kirk of having any part in her husband’s death.”

Turning Point USA responded to Owens’ accusations for the first time on December 3. Producer Blake Neff said the group is giving Owens a chance to join a live stream to discuss her claims. Neff called her allegations either “false” or “just plain ridiculous.”

Consumers and Real Estate Impacted

Falling mortgage rates and steady markets are good news for consumers:

Refinancing: Rates are significantly lower than they were last year. Homeowners with mortgages at or above 7% interest rates could benefit from refinancing.

The decline in the half-mortgage rate year over year has made home buying more affordable.

Fed Policy: The Fed may cut rates as soon as December 9-10, which could help the housing market.

Economic Indicators: The core personal consumption expenditures index grew 2.8% over the past year, slightly below the expected 2.9%. This supports the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This report uses reliable sources. Some claims from the original request turned out to be rumors or misleading. GCA Forums News is committed to evidence-based reporting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ntbdKegz0g

GCA FORUMS NEWS – COMPREHENSIVE MARKET AND FINANCIAL REPORT: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2025LIVE MARKET UPDATEDOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

This afternoon, the Dow Jones reached approximately 47,878, up 408 points from Wednesday’s close of 47,182.90 and near record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose by about 0.2%.

MARKET SENTIMENT

Following the latest jobs report, Fed traders do not anticipate a rate increase at the next meeting. ADP data showed private payrolls in November fell by 32,000, missing the expected increase of 40,000.

PRECIOUS METALS PRICESGOLD

Gold opened at $4,199.00 per ounce on December 5, 2025, down $25.00 from the previous close of $4,203.56. Gold prices have increased nearly 60% over the past year.

SILVER

At 8:15 a.m. Eastern Time, silver was $57.39 per ounce, down $0.21 from the previous day. On December 3, 2025, silver reached $58.97 per ounce, surpassing the 1980 record. The current price is at least double last year’s level, primarily due to reduced supply and expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 5.99% as of December 4, 2025. Zillow reports the 30-year fixed rate at 5.99% and the 15-year rate at 5.37%. Freddie Mac reports the 30-year fixed rate at 6.19% for the week, down four basis points. The 30-year rate is 6.72% as of December 4, 2025. The refinance rate for a 15-year term is 5.81%.

Expected Interest Rate Averages.

Mortgage rates for 30-year loans are projected to remain near 6.3% in 2026. According to Realtor.com, slower economic growth is expected to keep rates stable despite increasing government debt and inflation.

Mortgage Rate Decline

Rates have declined again and are now just 0.1% above this year’s lows, which is positive for homebuyers after years of high interest rates. The recent Federal Reserve cut and talk of further reductions have increased speculation about how long rates will stay elevated. While rate cuts do not always lead to lower mortgage rates, they can create new opportunities for borrowers.

CONCERNS ABOUT THE FBI DIRECTOR’S CONDUCTFLIGHT TO SEE GIRLFRIEND

FBI Director Kash Patel’s recent trip has generated controversy. Reports indicate he used the FBI’s $60 million jet to attend a wrestling event in Pennsylvania, where his girlfriend, country singer Alexis Wilkins, was performing. House Democrats have requested flight logs and related documents regarding Patel’s use of FBI aircraft.

FBI GUARD FOR GIRLFRIEND

Many members of the Nashville SWAT team are also FBI agents. Several reportedly serve as personal security for Alexis Wilkins. This has raised concerns about providing FBI protection, funded by taxpayers, to a private individual. After the Charlie Kirk assassination, Patel would not leave the FBI plane until his girlfriend got a medium-sized FBI raid jacket. She took a jacket from a female agent, but said it was missing the right patches. Patel insisted that the SWAT team provide the correct patches before she would leave. A 115-page internal report describes Deputy Director Dan Bongino as “something of a clown.” The report characterizes the FBI under Patel as “dismal,” “all f*cked up,” and a “rudderless ship.” Both former and current agents have criticized the “arrogance” of Bongino and Patel, as well as their “unfortunate obsession with social media.” For months, Candace Owens has faced questions and accusations about her criticism of Charlie Kirk’s close friends. Some say she has used personal stories about Kirk’s past relationships in comments aimed at his wife, Erika Kirk. Owens has reportedly said that Kirk’s murder “had to be approved by Charlie’s friends” and that those friends could be “murderers.” Blake Neff of The Charlie Kirk Show has said that Owens claims Kirk was murdered. Market conditions and announcements from Jordan Van Morrow can change quickly. We encourage clients to do their own due diligence and consult financial professionals before making an investment.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/housing-market-forecast-2026-price-declines-real-estate-mortgage/

cbsnews.com

Home prices are poised to dip in 22 U.S. cities next year, a new analysis says. See where.

A new report from Realtor.com projects that the housing market will shift in a more buyer-friendly direction in 2026.

GCA Forums News – Live Daily Report: December 3, 2025

Summary

The Dow Jones is up 47,600 on the day, as investors try to come to terms with the new dip in private-sector jobs and the Fed’s prediction of rate cuts.

Mortgage Rates are still up 6% in 30-year mortgages, and most national surveys are still under 7%.

Gold is up to $4,220 oz. Silver is near $59 oz, both at near-record highs.

Housing is softening in most markets, but the percentage decline is only 1–2% over the past year.

Politics and law enforcement: The new FBI Director, Kash Patel, is facing controversies involving his leadership. Dan Bongino and some MAGA supporters hold conflicting positions. Candace Owens is also involved in recent contradictions, including disputes with Erika Kirk and the Kirk family.

LIVE Markets & ratesDow Jones & Financial Markets

As of late, Eastern Morning time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average as of now is at 47,588 and is now up 110 points in \ ( + 0.2 to 0.3% ).

Following the receipt of some alarming news regarding the employment rate, Wall Street dipped but remained relatively steady.

The news indicated that the rate of job growth had slowed.

Many traders believed that this indicated the Fed would decrease rates in the near future.

Major European indices and the S&P 500. American stock futures are now slightly in the green.

There was a period previously when the global bond and cryptocurrency markets were quite volatile, but these markets have since stabilized.

Significant chief macro factors:

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is now just above four percent.

Earlier this year, the yield was 4.8 percent.

The Fed decreased the policy rate at the end of October.

The target rate is now between 3.75% and 4.00%.

Market analysts are speculating whether the Fed will further decrease the rate at the FOMC meeting on December 10.

Inflation is approximately three percent year-over-year.

While inflation is currently stable, it remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

The unemployment rate is currently 4.4 percent.

While this represents an increase from a year ago, it remains a relatively low unemployment rate.

LIVE economic data: jobs, growth, and Fed watch

The most talked about economic issue today is the ADP Private Payroll Report. ADP indicates that in November, private employers in the US cut 32,000 jobs. This was a significant miss in terms of the jobs that were expected to be gained. This represents the biggest contraction of jobs in the US since the beginning of 2023.”

How American Workers Getting Paid More Rationalizes U.S. Wage Stagnation

Higher pay helps the economy overall.

But higher pay does not solve wage stagnation.

Workers are being paid more on average in 2023.

However, pay increases still may not boost real income.

With wage inflation, increased pay is offset by rising living costs.

In 2023, the average wage increase is approximately 4.4% for those who remain in their current jobs.

Employers now spend more to keep existing employees.

Employers continue to struggle with raising pay for those who are losing their jobs.

Therefore, it is much more challenging for employers to hire than to fire, which has led to the use of the term ‘no-hire, no-fire’ to describe current conditions.

Borrowers and Homeowners

More evidence is emerging that fewer jobs, even during harsh economic conditions, do not necessarily lead to a decline in overall employment, as other factors offset the decrease. If the condition persists, it is possible that Long-Term Housing Rates will drop in the event of a more severe economic recession.

Lower mortgage rates tend to be seen for shorter time periods during more severe recessions, while less severe conditions result in higher rates that persist for longer periods. Stable economic conditions make it ideal for residents to obtain a mortgage.

Housing long-term rates will drop in more severe recession conditions.

More jobs during difficult times don’t always mean a recession.

For now, the data suggest that the economy is in a slow-growth phase rather than a full recession. Update

A report today highlighted that 30-year fixed mortgage rates have landed slightly under 6.25%:

30-year fixed**, conforming is pegged between 6.0%–6.3% depending on the survey.

15-year fixed is arriving at 5.3%–5.6%.

A 30-year refinance is slightly higher than the purchase rates but remains pegged in the mid-6 % range.

For the same borrower profile, Government-backed loans (FHA, VA, USDA) typically price slightly below conventional loans, and non-QM loans are higher, especially for lower credit scores and recent credit events.

All GCA Borrowers

Today’s rates are materially better than the peak in 2023, especially for those stuck in the 7.5–8% range.

Marginal is still, and will always remain, an option, but pricing and documentation requirements will be stringent.

This is where **manual This is where manual underwriting and lenders without overlays becomes important.:

There is a Slowdown, But No Crash is Coming

Recent housing data show a **mixed, but slowly improving market:

National home prices are still increasing, but only 1.2-1.7% over the year, and approximately 75% of metros within the U.S still see annual increases.

Connecticut, New Jersey, Alaska, West Virginia, and Wyoming experience greater positive growth, while prices in Florida and Washington, D.C. are decreasing.

However, more than half of U.S. homes have had their prices decrease over the last year.

Predicting the Future: Zillow and others anticipate modest, yet positive, growth in prices.

1% over the following year.

The number of sold homes is also predicted to increase as mortgage rates slowly decrease over the next 24 months.

Summary for home buyers and owners:

This is not the extreme buyer’s market from 2021-2022.

Home buyers now have increased leverage in price and repair negotiations, although financial considerations remain a primary focus and reversionary equity of homes has worsened inflation.

The value of homes and the interest rates of loans have risen. Inflating home values and interest rates of loans have made money refinances and home equity lines of credit attractive due to their ability to be used to cover credit debt.

Gold and silver prices are skyrocketing.

Silver and gold, skyrocketing in value, are causing a lot of buzz in the world of commodities:

The value of gold has reached a record high, nearing $ 4,220, with a value increase of approximately 59 percent in the past year.

The value of silver has also reached a record high. It’s close to $59 and has been increasing at a higher percentage than gold.

The reason behind the rise in gold and silver prices remains unclear, and various analyses are being conducted to gain a better understanding of the situation. The inflation above 2 percent is driving the increase.

Others expect gold and silver prices to increase due to a scarcity of both materials.

Some are in higher demand, with a focus on silver as the more scarce resource needed for solar and electronic applications.

For many homes with gold and silver in their possession, the value of their gold and silver enhances the net worth of their home.

Borrowers should keep in mind, however, that because gold and silver are highly volatile, they shouldn’t expect to rely on the value of gold and silver for short-term down payments.

Borrowers should also keep in mind that the metals of gold and silver will most likely experience a sudden price swing.

For homes that are on record files, the gold and silver in question would be considered extra in terms of completeness of the record within the file set for the home.

Consumers: Record Holiday Shopping And Rising Debt Concerns

People are still spending a significant amount of money, despite households continuing to feel the financial strain.

Cyber Monday shopping is expected to reach a record high, with nearly $14.2 billion in spending.

Total sales this holiday shopping season are expected to exceed $1 trillion.

As reported by ABC and PBS, credit card debt is increasing, along with the number of people missing payments, and more people are using buy now, pay later options to stretch their shopping dollars.

Impacts this has on the mortgages:

If cardholders are building debt, PAID LATE, and their current DTI is above borrowing parameters,

THE MARGINAL FHA and conventional borrowers could be negatively impacted.

There is a lot of scrutiny on 60 Days and More delinquencies.

Holiday short-term borrowing intended for shopping could lead individuals to have their approval status dropped early in 2026.

Politics, Law Enforcement & Headlines: Kash Patel: FBI Jet & SWAT Detail Under Analysis

Kash Patel is currently embroiled in at least three overlapping controversies:

House Democrats are currently investigating whether Patel is misusing the FBI’s private jet travel for personal use, including travel related to country singer Alexis Wilkins.

Other reports indicate Patel is receiving criticism for reallocating FBI SWAT team members who are assigned to Wilkins for protective duties, and colleagues raised concerns about providing such extensive security to a private, non-government spouse.

Patel has publicly defended his actions in various interviews with FOX News, stating that he is entitled to a personal life,and he claims his travel and security arrangements are justified as policy-compliant

Notably,

Several accounts referenced in the media about Patel’s alleged lifestyle have been walked back.

Most recently, MSNBC issued a correction for stating on air that Patel spent significantly more time outside of the office at nightclubs than he did at FBI headquarters; ultimately, they admitted that the network had not verified this information.

Considering that some of the more colorful details being discussed, such as the various travel stops, the types of events, and the amount of money involved, lack strong public documentation, there is a need to distinguish between documented allegations and investigations, as compared to rumors and social media gossip.

Dan Bongino: Deputy Director of the FBI and Twitch Assaults

Dan Bongino is a deputy FBI Director who had just assumed the role earlier this year and is getting increasing scrutiny himself:

In a profile by The Guardian, speculation arose about Dan’s future with the company, leading to widespread concern within the organization after he stormed out of a meeting discussing the Jeffrey Epstein case and was considering resignation.

More recently, extreme right media and MAGA influencers have roasted Bongino after he gave a critique of Miranda Devine, a columnist for the New York Post; some of these people are accusing him of being a traitor to the pro-Trump media.

The recent rumors around resignations and mixing of the top management will not affect the pricing of the mortgage than they already are; however, they will have the following:

People will have less confidence in the Federal law enforcement of this country.

Modify the guidelines for additional investigations into Financial Fraud and other related crimes.

Increase the negative influence on those who are already overburdened.

Financing and Interest Rates

Candace Owens and Erika Kirk: Another Feud on the Right

On the right media, Candace Owens is once again in the news due to Erika Kirk, wife of far-right activist Charlie Kirk, and now CEO of Turning Point USA:

Kirk’s husband, Charlie, was murdered earlier this year, and she has since assumed the leadership role and broadened her media presence in the ministry.

Owens has publicly, on social media and on her podcast, questioned elements of the leadership in TPUSA and has been probing the details surrounding Kirk’s death and Erika’s actions.

Outlets labeled these as controversial and unproven.

U.S. and other countries’ media coverage state that:

Owens has made very serious, unsubstantiated allegations, conspiracy theories, and
The Times of India reports that a war of words is being waged for and against Kirk, as well as for and against Owens.

For GCA Forums readers, this is largely a political feud, not a financial one.** This demonstrates:

The splintering of conservative media,

The impact of unverified allegations on the formation of public opinion, and

The need to verify allegations rather than assume a factual basis for a claim, especially when serious allegations of criminal conduct are involved.

What It All Means for Homebuyers, Homeowners, & Investors

Rates can be better, but not “cheap.

Getting lower than 6.25 percent fixed 30-year rates is better than the 2023 spike, but they are still high enough that payment shock is real for first-time buyers coming from a lower rent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUjQjhxTZJk

This is an updated national trending news item on GCA Forums News, dated November 19, 2025, providing the latest statistics, figures, and trending keywords regarding important economic, Political, Real Estate, and Societal news.

National Breaking News NOV 19 2025Live Stock Market Commentary

The closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 46,143.42, representing a 51.68-point or 0.11% gain for the reporting period. For the same reporting period, the S&P 500 is 6,672.4, which represents a gain of 0.84%, and the value for the S&P 500 is a gain of 1.29%. There is still a pattern of volatility, and traders are speculating about Nvidia’s earnings, as tech gains begin to lead the market.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains above average, currently ranging from 6.12% to 6.37%, while the 15-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 5.37% to 5.59%. These are the highest rates in a month, as demand for loans has decreased, resulting in a 5 percent drop from the previous week. The housing market remains depressed.

Live CPI, Inflation, and Unemployment Statistics

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimates Q3 2025 GDP growth to be 4.2 percent, up from its previous estimate of 4.1 percent. This is an indication of the surprising strength in growth as of September. Inflation has risen to 3.0% and has been a burden on homeowners. The CPI estimate for November is expected to increase by 0.32%.

Prices remain elevated, as a moderate increase in the value of energy is expected, according to the CPI forecast. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% in August to 4.5% by year-end.

Job growth is slowing down, as reports indicate that private employers, on average, have been shedding around 2,500 jobs each week since the start of November.

Housing & Mortgage Market Forecasts

Ever-high mortgage rates continue to choke the homebuying industry, exacerbating affordability issues. Builder sentiment is low in the homebuilding sector due to a decline in employment and high interest rates for loans to fund new construction. Estimates indicate that home prices will remain volatile until 2026, with mortgage loan rates likely to remain above 6%, as the Federal Reserve has indicated that there will be no rate reduction this quarter. The squeeze on inventory is due to reduced trading and delayed repos, causing auction prices to rise.

Automotive Repossessions, Car Dealership Bankruptcies, and CarMax Financial Losses

The used car industry is facing extreme issues. There was a 20% loss in stock from CarMax, Inc. (KMX) due to a downturn in second-quarter profit reports, and a loss in other loans led to the CEO’s dismissal. The repossession rates of CarMax are under 0.2%. In comparison, Carvana has a repossession rate of 2-3% on more than prime auto loans. Supply is low due to low volumes of cars being set free from loans and other car dealers offering excessively low prices for auctioning cars. This has led to high prices on cars for average US consumers.

Chicago in Crisis: Mayor Brandon Johnson’s Tax Battle Drives Exodus

Mayor Brandon Johnson’s efforts to address Chicago’s substantial budget deficits have encountered significant obstacles.

The City Council Finance Committee rejected his last program, which involved a highly discussed corporate head tax, along with previously proposed major increases to the property, business, and streaming service taxes. He claims that these taxes will worsen the already ongoing business and resident exodus. Reports indicate that nearly a quarter of Chicago’s office space remains vacant. The departing office workers cite the crime, as well as the tax increases, as the dominant reasons. Business owners in Chicago’s neighborhoods are likened to being in a COVID scenario regarding sales, as the stream of customers and general consumer trust is low.

Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Proposal and $2,000 Stimulus: What It Means

The United States President Trump aims to combat the issue of housing affordability, especially for the younger population and new buyers, with his new proposed program for 50-year mortgages. Supporters claim that there will be an affordability boost, with monthly payments decreasing. Critics, however, warn that there may be significant interest payments in the long run, and the idea of a lifetime mortgage is considered a risky one. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is looking to see if the proposal has a fit in the present housing landscape. However, no further information has been provided on the proposal, and it is unclear when it is expected to be implemented.

At the same time, Trump has stated that there is an intention to distribute $2,000 tariff rebate checks to the majority of the United States population, with the money coming from additional tariffs on US imports.

These checks, expected in mid-2026, would specifically exclude high-income earners and are part of a program designed to stimulate the economy during periods of high inflation and unemployment.

End of the U.S. Government Shutdown: Political Fallout

The recent shutdown of the U.S. Government came to an end after 43 days, on November 12. Due to the lengthy stalemate, there was a need for major trade-offs, as many Democrats believed the shutdown’s trade-offs offered them significant bargaining power to push for the continuance or renewal of some of the more controversial social service programs. However, the political and economic “fiscal bankruptcy” crisis has once again shuttered the deep and predominant sense of polarization on Capitol Hill.

New York City Elects First Democratic Socialist Mayor: National Ripples

Zohran Mamdani has been declared the winner of the New York City Mayor’s election, gaining 50.4% of the votes, making him the first Democratic Socialist Mayor in New York City and in the entire country.

Mamdani’s campaigns include the abolition of private land and asset ownership, as well as increased taxation on the rich to fund generations of free healthcare, education, transportation, rent, and food for the people.

These policies may lead to a mass business and capital outflow from New York City. In contrast, others may welcome what some would consider a new paradigm of economic justice and redistribution. These actions have raised concerns among conservatives, as well as within the Trump Administration, about the future political trajectory of the USA. A `Democratic Socialist’ refers to an individual who advocates expansive universal social programs, public or workers’ command in the economy, with a large redistribution policy, and operates within a framework of democracy.

Turning Point USA, Candace Owens, Erika Kirk, and National Conservatives Updating Movements

Turning Point USA is still overwhelmed by the assassination of co-founder Charlie Kirk. His widow, Erika Kirk, made headlines with loving, thoughtful comments towards the Trump Family and Vice President JD Vance at a recent memorial, even drawing predictable attention from the audience with her on-stage hug to Vance. Candace Owens, a well-known conservative figure, is stepping up her demands for accountability in TPUSA with raging comments aimed at Chief of Staff Mikey McCoy in viral podcasts and videos. Disorganization, leadership turbulence, and public national scrutiny characterize the organization’s current stage as it plans to continue honoring Kirk with AmericaFest in December.

Most Recent News on Gustan Cho Associates and Subsidiaries

Gustan Cho Associates remains in operation as a national mortgage broker, serving all 48 states, with its headquarters located in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois.

Empowered by NEXA Mortgage LLC, the division remains a pivotal home mortgage lender for both residential and commercial properties. Please continue following GCA Forums News for real-time updates, unparalleled insights, and extensive reporting on the economy, politics, the intersection of society and real estate, and the ongoing historic developments of November 19, 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC14rpH8Esc&list=RDNSrC14rpH8Esc&start_radio=1

NATIONAL BREAKING NEWS REPORT: NOVEMBER 17 TO NOVEMBER 24, 2025

Housing and Mortgage Lending

• Mortgage Rates: By the end of October 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 6.17.
• While that number is lower than the rate from earlier this year, which hovered above 7.0, it is still lower than the rates during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• As for the rates for 2026, analysts expect them to be between 6.0% and 7.0%, with the expectation that they will dip below 6.0% by the end of 2026, if inflation cools.
• Housing Market: With high interest rates remaining, the market will continue to be challenging for many buyers to enter.
• That said, modest price increases and flat pricing growth are likely to occur in most areas of the market.
• The phenomenon known as golden handcuffs remains in effect, keeping homeowners with low rates during the pandemic reluctant to move.

Politics and National Interest

• Fed Policy: The Fed implemented rate cuts of two quarter points in September and October 2025, with the expectation that a third cut would follow in December.
• Shutdown Effects: The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown in early November led to increased demand for gold as a haven.

Up to the Moment Economic and Financial Information

Dow Jones and Other Markets

• Although no specific Dow Jones number was provided for this report, a high level of market volatility with respect to the Dow has been observed, as evident in the dependent market risk stemming from Fed policy and trade uncertainty.

Interest Rates

• Federal Funds Rate: The Fed recently cut rates, aiming to encourage growth.
• However, mortgage rates are still driven by expectations of inflation alongside bond yields.
• Current Rates: As of November 2025, the current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.26%.
• According to forecasts, this is expected to drop very mildly to 6.5% by the end of the year.
• Gold: On November 24, 2025, Spot gold traded at $1,053.40/oz, after peaking for the year in October at $1,381/oz.
• The end of the year is also predicted to see the price of gold fall to a range of $3,800-$ 4,200/oz. Two thousand twenty-six long-term gold price forecasts are between $4,500 $5,000/oz.
• Silver: Spot silver traded for $48.74/oz as a result of haven demand in early November.
• Other Metals: Platinum was priced at $1,567/oz as of November 2025; this metal rose by 0.4%.
• Palladium is priced at $1,434/oz as of November 2025.
• The price of this metal rose by 1.1%.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The U.S.-China trade relationship, along with the tariffs they impose, and the gold equity markets.
• Inflation and Fed Policy: If the Fed were to signal a decrease in its rates, it would likely boost the gold price.
• However, due to the current inflation rate, the gold price may remain depressed.
• Safe Haven Demand: Investors’ nervousness about the current economic and political climate is driving the surge in gold prices above the $4,000/oz mark.
• Outlook:
• Overall, gold prices are expected to remain above $4,000/oz, which is likely to be the range.
• However, this is contingent on the strength of the dollar.
• Mortgage Rates: The 2025 rate is expected to be 6.5%, assuming no inflationary shocks.
• Housing: Slight increases in pricing but constrained supply due to rate lock-in effects.

Stay informed about federal updates and global events for timely insights.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECX9R8hHJCY

News Broadcasting Service, Inc. National News Summary, November 26, 2025 Report

Good morning, America. Today’s national news summary covers how financial markets are responding to the post-2024 recovery. It updates major indicators as of 9:00 am EST.

• As Thanksgiving approaches, we examine the effects of market volatility, holiday spending, global politics, weather, and fiscal policy on the economic outlook.
• All figures are from the Fed, BLS, and private providers, with data updated regularly.
• Holiday spending is projected to increase by 4.2%, though retail inflation remains a concern.
• Trade negotiations are affecting the tech sector and oil prices.
• A severe winter storm in the Northeast is increasing energy demand and disrupting travel.
• Congress is considering a fiscal stimulus through an infrastructure package.

Here is a snapshot of live economic and financial data, including mortgage rates, to provide context on current conditions. This section moves from the general summary to specific indicators.

LIVE Mortgage Rates Update

Mortgage rates are declining as the Federal Reserve works to strike a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining housing affordability.

• Live data from Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily at 8:45 am EST show rates fell after lower-than-expected inflation reports earlier this week.
• Experts attribute this decrease to the recent 25-basis-point increase in the Federal Reserve’s rates in October.
• A basis point equals one hundredth of a percent.
• 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: 5.25% (decreased by 0.03%; average points: 0.5).
• This is ideal for refinancers who want to pay off their loan faster.
• 5/1 Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM): 5.60% (unchanged; initial fixed period).
• An ARM starts with a fixed rate, then moves to a variable rate.
• ARMs may gain popularity if the Fed eases policy in 2026.

FHA Loans (30-Year Fixed):

• 5.75% (down 0.04%).
• These loans, insured by the Federal Housing Administration, often assist buyers with lower credit scores.
• Jumbo Loans (30-Year Fixed): 6.10% (up 0.02%). Jumbo loans exceed the conforming loan limits set by government agencies.

Market Insight

The average home price is $564,225, a 3.1% increase from last year (Zillow).

• Affordability remains a challenge.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 2% rise in purchase applications this week, and the outlook is cautiously optimistic.
• Analysts recommend locking in rates now due to expected volatility following Thanksgiving and the upcoming release of job data.
• Consumer confidence remains low, primarily due to concerns about job security and high prices.
• There were 215,000 jobless claims last week.
• Non-farm payrolls are projected to add 180,000 new jobs in November (BLS).2.6%, estimated for November at 2.5%.
• The core CPI (excluding food and energy) is projected to be 2.6%.
• Producer prices fell to 2.1% (October), led by a drop in energy prices.
• GDP is growing at 2.5%.
• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is updated at 8:30 am8:30 am.
• Consumer spending increased by 3.5% in the last quarter, supporting economic growth.
• The Consumer Confidence Index was 108.7 for November, down from 110.7 in October.
• Holiday spending is expected to reach $980 billion.
• Housing starts reached 1.35 million (annualized in October), and building permits rose by 1.8%.
• Retail sales increased 0.4% in October and 4.2% year-over-year, with e-commerce sales up 7.5%.
• Economists see no recession triggers and project GDP growth at 2.2% by 2026.
• The Fed’s December meeting may affect forecasts.
• As of 9:30 am9:30 am EST, the Dow Jones is 42,150 (+0.02%), the S&P 500 is 5,720 (+0.03%), and the Nasdaq is 18,950 (+0.05%), all led by tech.
• The 10-year Treasury Yield is 4.15% (-0.02%), and the 2-year remains flat at 4.05%.cy Exchange
• USD/EUR: 1.05 (some strengthening of the USD).
• USD Index: 102.80 (increased by 0.1%).

Turning to sector highlights, technology-led gains were offset by declines in the energy sector.

Details follow:

Broader National Context

• Federal Reserve Watch: Jerome Powell maintains a “data-dependent” approach after his speech yesterday.
• Markets see a 60% chance of a rate cut in December.
• Corporate Earnings: Walmart’s Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting retail sentiment.
• Tesla ramps up production of Cybertruck and adds 5,000 jobs in Texas.
• Global Ties: US-China trade, shaped by import tariffs, impacts inflation.
• Sustainability Note: EIA reports $500 billion invested in renewables. Solar capacity rose 15% YTD.

This summary highlights the dynamic nature of live data and its impact on the national outlook. Markets can pivot at any time. For personalized advice, consult a financial professional. Stay safe this Thanksgiving. We will provide updates throughout the day. For visual data or more details, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Data Disclaimer:

All numbers represent publicly available information as of November 26, 2025, 9:00 am9:00 am EST. The xAI News Network, for this response, mimics real-time data aggregation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KNDKFPBPdo

Judge Dismisses Cases Against Comey and James, Finding Trump Prosecutor Was Unlawfully Appointed. Can you please explain what is going on with FBI Director Kash Patel, Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino, and the Queen of Incompetence Pam Bondi? I think these three so called Angels of Justice is more like the Three Stooges. They should immediately be fired. In my opinion, Leticia James and James Comey were slam dunk convictions and jail birds. They were no doubt bad apples and should have gone to trial, convicted, and sentenced. Can we all start a discussion on Comey and James as well as what is being done to get rid of the incompetent leaders of the Department of Justice?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvp54jYJ1Yg

• This discussion was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by  Gustan Cho.
• This discussion was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by  Sapna Sharma.

GCA Forums News For Tuesday November 18 2025:

BREAKING GCA Forums News: NATIONAL REPORTS

What happened on Tuesday, November 18, 2025

GCA Forums News – Housing, Mortgages, The Economy, and Politics LIVE WALL STREET LIVE STOCKS Live Stock Market Data

• Dow, Dow Jones, S%P 500, and Nasdaq .
• Today is another tough day on Wall Street as investors worry that A.I. stocks in the technology sector have gone too far too quickly.
• As of Tuesday, November 18 2023, 3 00 PM E.T.
• All three major indexes have gone down on their second consecutive day and the technology stocks have sold off.
• This is another challenging day on Wall Street, as investors continue to worry that A.I. stocks in the technology sector have advanced too quickly.
• Small>caps (Russell 2000)
• The Russell 2 is down slightly, with the brighter news.
• Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks, updated as of Tuesday, 3 PM ET.
• The Russell 2000 is estimated to be up by more than 0.6% to approximately 2,354, clawing back from its losses on Monday.

Live Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Industrial Average

• Live Update on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite.

More Wide Effect Live Update S&P 500 Composite’s Live Update on Nasdaq Composite

• Live Update 2022 Data S$P 500 Composite Value IS 0.99 S%P 500 Composite Live Rate 0.059.
• 0.99 S%P 500 Composite Live Rate 0.059.

LIVE INTEREST RATES AND MORTGAGES LIVE (10) Interest Rate and Mortgages 2020

Live Updated The Live Updated Federal Value.

• The Federal Value of Money Polices LIVE Updated.
• LIVE Updated The Federal Reserve Polices.
• Federal Reserve Policy Rate Cuts

Still Towards the Restrictive Side

• As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve has made two cuts to the target federal funds rate, which now sits at the 3.75-4% range.
• These cuts consist of two 25-basis-point cuts, made on September 18 and October 29.
• With the Fed now focusing on the labor market and continuing to ignore inflation, there will likely be one more rate cut in December.

LIVE Mortgage Rates: 30-Year Fixed Still in the Low 6%

Slowly, but surely, borrowers are receiving a bit of relief:

• As of mid-November, the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to 6.2-6.3%, down from 7% that was common earlier this year.
• Should inflation continue to decrease, forecasters, including Fannie Mae, predict that mortgage rates will stabilize in the low 5% range by the end of 2026.
• For homeowners looking to refinance and those buying their first home, mortgage rates are still on the more expensive side compared to the standards of years past.
• However, this has improved significantly since the spike in rates from 2023 to 2024.

LIVE ECONOMIC DATA: GDP, CPI INFLATION, AND JOBS

• GDP Growth: Strong Rebound After a Weak First Quarter.
• Real GDP grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the second quarter of 2025.
• This signifies growth after a 0.6% drop in the first Quarter of the Year.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates Q3 2025 growth at approximately 4.1% (as of November 17).

Inflation: CPI Running Around 3% Year-Over-Year

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% in September 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, also slightly higher than the 2.9% increase in August.
• The increase in energy and gasoline is a notable factor.
• The core CPI (excluding food and energy) remains at 3%, which is higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
• Quite a distance, sure, but still a step in the right direction compared to the wild increase early in the Pandemic.
• Of course, the tariffs on goods, such as clothing, that were implemented during the Trump administration still have an impact on pricing today.

Jobs and Unemployment: Softening but Not Collapsing

• The shutdown caused disruptions in the official BLS reports; however, Chicago Fed estimates have shown that the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in October, the highest level in about four years.
• It is also a 4% increase from the September rate of 4.35% and 4.3% in August.
• Approximately 750,000 federal workers were also furloughed due to the shutdown, further complicating the data.

LIVE HOUSING AND MORTGAGE FORECASTS

Existing Home Sales: Picking Up as Rates Ease

The latest September 2025 existing-home sales report showed:

• Sales up 1.5% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.06 million, the fastest pace since February.
• Median existing-home price: $415,200, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, and this is the highest price recorded in September.
• Inventory: Increased to 1.55 million homes, which is approximately 4.6 months of supply—an improvement but still below pre-COVID norms.
• Although buyers have more opportunities with lower mortgage rates, major affordability issues persist despite several years of rapid home price growth.

Housing Outlook: More Sales Ahead if Rates Keep Falling

Fannie Mae forecast in its September 2025 predictions:

• The number of homes sold is projected to increase in 2025 to 4.72 million units.
• This number is set to rise to 5.16 million units in 2026.
• These forecasts result in a $ 500,000 increase in sales compared to today.
• The 30-year mortgage is projected to decrease to 5.9% by the end of 2026, allowing first-time homebuyers to purchase homes.
• This means, for GCA Forums readers, today’s housing market is and should be seen as transitional.
• Rates will decrease over the first 12 to 24 months.

DEALER STRESS, REPOSSESSIONS, AUTO PRICES SOAR

New Car Transaction Prices Average $50,000

The auto market remains punishing for buyers:

• Cox Automotive Inc. reports that for the first time, new-vehicle transaction prices exceeded $50,000, with an average cost of $50,080.
• This represents a 3.6% increase over the same month in the previous year.
• New full-size pickup trucks are priced around $66,000 to $70,000 each, largely due to tariffs, high demand for expensive trucks, and increased input costs.

Near Record Level Repossessions

Repossessions of vehicles are reported at near record levels:

• Over 7.5 million repossession assignments were made in 2025, with a year-end estimate of around 10.5 million repossessions, largely due to the impact of the Great Recession.
• 10.5 million.
• Headlines highlight auto bankruptcies and rising delinquencies, particularly in communities hardest hit by high rates and tariffs.

Under Pressure CarMax and Used-Car Dealers

The used-car sector is flashing red:

• Several major used-car and subprime auto originators have declared bankruptcy, shaking the credit markets.
• CarMax (KMX) did not meet market expectations, incurred a $142 million loss provision, and dismissed longtime Chief Executive Officer Bill Nash. As a result, its market prices dropped by about 50–60% this year, resulting in billions of dollars in lost market value.
• The cross communication for these loans is CARS COST MORE, REPOS MORE, LOANS ARE HARDER.
• This leads to substantial stress placed on all facets of a household’s budget.

JOHNSON’S TAX HIKE CHICAGO FLIGHT RISK

While the City Council still resists Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s recent proposals, Johnson continues to advocate for extreme tax schemes to plug a budget hole.

• Johnson proposed a $600 million tax-head tax on big employers, higher real estate transfer taxes on large commercial deals, and other business-centered taxes.
• Johnson’s plan suffered from attrition due to business groups and some aldermen being fearful of accelerating the exodus of employers and high-income residents to the suburbs and lower-tax states.
• Chicago and Illinois have endured years of net out-migration due to a combination of factors, including crime, school issues, and taxes.
• Outsiders, including Johnson critics, claim that the City and citizens’ new taxes will encourage even more to relocate to states with no taxes.
• There is further debate from the more progressive side that revenue from new taxes will provide better funds for the City to serve its citizens more effectively, enhance public safety, and improve overall services for the City.

Trump’s Proposed 50-Year Mortgage Plan

• 50-Year Mortgage Payment options are being promoted by Trump as a way to improve both housing affordability and refinancing options.

These are the details so far:

• The Executive Office aims to extend the Term of the Mortgage to 50 years, reduce monthly payments, and lower the debt service-to-income ratio for borrowers who are critically stretched.
• Advocates state that Foreclosures would be prevented, and first-time homebuyers would have the opportunity to qualify, as well as refinance options for high-rate loans would be unlocked.
• Opponents argue that this means greater total interest payments, and equity would build much more slowly; the price of homes would also inflate if buyers can afford homes at a higher price.

As for GCA Borrowers:

• Equity growth will be slower, and there will be greater sensitivity to price drops that will occur, with a 50 Year Term.
• Starting any new program involves significant changes to regulations and investor expectations, which are not currently underway.
• There is still no information available on the details, who will qualify, and what investors may want.

Stimulus of $2,000 ‘Tariff Check’ Proposed by Trump

• The Trump administration is attempting to partly offset the increased costs of living by sending $2,000 ‘tariff dividend’ checks.
• President Trump claims that $2,000 checks will be sent in 2026 and that Americans will be able to receive these tariff-funded checks.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other analysts indicate that these checks will be less than $100,000 in income, as that was the limit set for pandemic checks.
• According to the Yale Budget Lab review, the projection is that between $300 billion and $450 billion will be expended on this plan.
• There will be a use of more than one year’s equivalent of the revenue from tariffs.
• The projection also states that the GDP will increase by 0.3 points and that there will be a slight rise in the inflation rate.
• To summarize, no checks have been sent; new checks will require new legislation that is not currently in effect.
• Therefore, it is unlikely that the math does add up.

2025 Government Shutdown

• The 2025 government Shutdown took place from October 1 to November 12.
• This was a record 43-day shutdown that included the 2018–2019 shutdown.
• The combination of funding led to the reopening of the government, which was then combined with the restoration of back pay & job protections for furloughed federal employees.
• Funded no more than most agencies until January 30.
• This will likely lead to more showdowns in 2026.
• Did NOT include an extension of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits.
• Enhanced benefits are a core ask for Democrats. Republicans agreed to let it be released, but only after a vote at some indefinite point in the future.
• According to a CBS poll it would seem that 55% of the populace think Trump and the Republicans won, while 6% of the population think the Democrats won.
• Hence, the reason Democrats lost the shadow in the showdown was that they lost the forefront of the issue to health-care costs.

NEW YORK CITY’S FIRST DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST MAYOR: ZOHRAN MAMDANI

• Live election and numbers results, and what occurred.

Last week, in what will be registered as a milestone in the city’s history in elections:

• Zohran Mamdani, 34, at the time of the most recent elections, a democratic socialist, won the 111th mayoral position in NYC, becoming the first Muslim and South Asian mayor, as well as the youngest to hold the position in New York.
• He further won the general election with over 50% of the votes, as opposed to former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who received about 41.6%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, who received about 7.1%.
• He advocates for rent and more expansive protection for tenants, who are often stressed by the ordinary protections of the law.
• He elevates it to a cordial, protective interaction with the law and its representatives.
• $30 will be the earliest lower range for what one can be paid in the city, as of 2030.
• Universal childcare, subsidized bus services, and public grocery stores.
• Increase taxation on top earners and corporations to finance social programs, while implementing changes to property taxes and providing tax relief to outer-borough homeowners.
• Trump has already implied that he might engage with Mamdani, although he regards him as a political opponent; he appears to be optimistic that they might reach a deal on housing and crime.

What Does Democratic Socialist Mean?

As per popular understanding:

• Democratic socialism is a far-left ideology that aims to achieve a gradual transition to a socially owned and democratically managed economy, while maintaining a multi-tiered democracy and civic freedoms.
• A democratic socialist would advocate substantive trade unions, public and/or cooperative control of vital industries, significant state welfare, and state oversight of the economy.
• It is essential to note that most democratic socialists do not propose eliminating all forms of private property.
• Instead, they propose more social ownership of certain key industries and advocate for more progressive income taxes, without barring families from owning their own homes or small businesses.
• Some right-wing critics are concerned that Mamdani’s agenda may veer towards effective state control of housing and other sectors, or discourage investment and property ownership.
• At the same time, his defenders argue that his plans would significantly reduce the acquisition of housing for profit and instead prioritize public services and affordability.

Turning Point USA, Erika Kirk, Candace Owens, and Mikey McCoy

The conservative youth movement is undergoing significant changes following the assassination of Charlie Kirk on September 10, 2025.

• Erika Kirk’s New Role and JD Vance Controversy.
• Charlie’s widow, Erika Kirk, has become the new CEO of Turning Point USA and has assured everyone that she will not change her husband’s goals of engaging youth on campuses and through other outreach efforts.
• Erika has been the subject of a hug with Vice President JD Vance, which some critics have tried to turn into a scandal.
• In response to these critics, she has stated that her actions are subject to abnormal levels of scrutiny, that her mission is to enhance family and faith activities, and that she aims to achieve the goals of TPUSA.

Candace Owens’ Attacks and Internal Turmoil

• Candace Owens: TPUSA Leadership has been attacked by Candace Owens.
• Both before and after Charlie’s death, she has released private correspondence and has directed criticism towards security arrangements, as well as some of the relationships they have with donors, contributing to some speculation and conspiracies surrounding the organization.

Mikey McCoy’s Emerging Role

• Mikey McCoy (Mike McCoy) used to be Charlie Kirk’s head of staff.
• Mikey McCoy is still connected to TPUSA, as Mikey.
• McCoy is an advocate for the organization and has spoken at events such as Liberty University and Mar-a-Lago, which are Christian-conservative in focus, emphasizing education and national security.
• Mikey has contributed to helping strengthen the organization.
• Erika Kirk has openly lauded Mikey’s efforts to assist her family after Charlie’s murder.
• TPUSA has a significant influence but is undergoing an internal struggle, marked by a change in leadership.
• Also, a threat to their reputation at the same time as Trump’s is on a 2nd term, and the current conservative movement is going through a change in generations.

What Does All This Mean For GUSTAN CHO ASSOCIATES BORROWERS

To the GCA Forums Community, live news as of today comes as follows:

• To mortgage shoppers and current homeowners.
• A 6% interest rate still seems high, although it has improved compared to earlier in the year.
• Volatility may be in the picture, but regarding future Fed cuts and slowing inflation, there’s a chance for an overall lower payment in the future.

To the housing market:

• Inventory is on the rise, prices are still increasing, but are more stable at this point.
• There are projections for increased sales in 2025-2026, especially if interest rates can be lowered to below 6%.

Consumer and Car Sector Stress:

• Everyone is concerned about the ever-rising prices of cars and the increasing number of cars that are being repossessed.
• This affects household budgets and credit reports, and may also impact mortgage qualifications.

Policy Face Cards:

• The 50-Year Mortgage Plan and $2,000 Tariff Checks may become policies that alter the trajectory of the economy, but are currently just propositions.
• For now, consider them potential policies rather than something you can count on today.

Political Changes in Major Metropolises

• The tax subsidies and housing policies being implemented in Chicago and New York City will serve as fundamental guides for landlords, renters, and investors nationwide.

Most Recent Updates From Gustan Cho Associates

Even though there is uncertainty on Wall St. and in Washington, Gustan Cho Associates and its affiliate companies continue to focus on:

No-Overlay FHA, VA, USDA, and Conventional Loans

• Non-QM and alternative-documentation loans for self-employed and credit-challenged borrowers.
• Manual underwriting with lenient guidelines for borrowers that others completely ignore.
• Nationwide coverage in most states, plus same-day pre-approvals in many instances.

If you are concerned about:

• High debt-to-income ratios.
• Recent credit issues or rising car payments.
• Or just trying to manage this fast-paced and politically charged environment.

Gustan Cho Associates team** can be reached at 800-900-8569 or by using contact forms on GustanCho.com and GCAForums.com for individual assistance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE0q1Cjuu-I&list=RDNSuE0q1Cjuu-I&start_radio=1

Here is your week-in-review “LIVE” compilation from Mon, November 10 → Sun, November 16, 2025, based on sources and synthesized headlines. Relevant dates and corresponding sources are hyperlinked throughout for easy reference.

LAST WEEK

• Drafting Federal Policies about 50-Year Mortgage: There have been active discussions about implementing a 50-year Mortgage policy.
• Bill (William J.) Pulte is reportedly working on a 50-year mortgage policy.
• Several publishers, including Yahoo News New Zealand, have reported this.
• He was in the limelight this week during Pulte’s recent scrutiny tenure.

Mortgage Rates

• For 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage: 6.24% (↑ 0.02pp w/w).
• For 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage: 5.49% (↓ 0.01pp w/w).

SNAPSHOT OF INTEREST & MORTGAGE RATES

• This was the Freddie Mac Time printed the week of November 10-16.
• Following the positive inflation news, traders became more optimistic about potential rate cuts, and mortgage quotes remained largely unchanged overall.

LIVE STOCK MARKET DATA & NUMBERS (Week Ending Friday, November 14)

The week has seen the following on Equity:

• Tech was sold at a later stage.
• The week has seen the start of a Monday (November 10) rally, which was initiated by a strong AI/Big Tech sector, following a loss reported the previous week.
• Wrap: Dow plunges… week closes higher.
• Bitcoin sinks to a 6-month low.
• For the exact closes (daily), check the S&P 500 (GSPC) historical tape for Nov 11-14

LIVE ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL NEWS

The government shutdown ended this week after 43 days, the longest on record.

• President Trump signed the stopgap funding bill on Wednesday, November 12.
• The government reopens on a stopgap through January 30, 2026 (with some full-year minibus components).
• As a consequence, the October CPI and parts of the October jobs report were delayed/scrubbed.
• The shutdown incident.
• Officials said the unemployment rate for October will not be published.
• The original CPI/Employment BLS release calendars confirm the original CPI/Employment release (disrupted).

Commodities

• Gold was trading around the low $4,000/oz area on Friday; multiple trackers show an intraday range of $4,050-$4,190/oz on November 14, with the week’s range exceeding $4,100 at times.
• Silver was around $50-$51/oz on Friday.

LIVE JOBS & UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS

• The October national unemployment rate is not being reported, according to White House/press guidance (due to the shutdown), and only a partial payroll print is expected to be released.
• Expect data gaps until these agencies are fully up to date.

LIVE POLITICAL NEWS — ICE & BORDER PATROL IN SANCTUARY CITIES

• Chicago & Illinois: Region-wide initiatives (Operation Midway Blitz) have been ongoing for several weeks now, with focus on Week’s Coverage, including previously reported 550 Arrests.
• Community resistance and neighborhood coordination, as seen in ABC’s weekend coverage, are the most patterned and introverted efforts.
• Los Angeles: Increased federal activity within sanctuary jurisdictions, as per Border Patrol.
• Various lawsuits emerged over the weekend regarding the conditions at the Detention Center.
• Next Deployments: According to internal documents obtained from CBS, Border Patrol expects increased deployments to other Cities. (Charlotte, New Orleans.)

LIVE ELECTION RESULTS — NYC MAYOR

• Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor of New York City on Tuesday, November 4.
• Numerous organizations and the election site report that 50.4% of the vote has been cast.
• He will succeed Eric Adams on January 1, 2026.

CORPORATE LAYOFFS — BIG STORES LIKE AMAZON

• Amazon lays off 14,000 corporate employees (4% of its white-collar staff) as part of a restructuring and shift to AIAI investments.
• According to reports, as many as 30,000 cuts have been reported, although official communication has only announced 14,000 as of now.

LIVING EXPENSES (FOOD, VEHICLES, ETC.)

• With the CPI for October being delayed, analysts had to rely on previous reports from the BLS and private measures.
• Reports throughout that week pointed to persistent sticky inflation in core categories and the missing data from the government, making it difficult for the Fed’s interest rate policy to take effect in December.

SUMMARY OF A POSSIBLE OUTLOOK OF A 50-YEAR MORTGAGE

• In lenders’ pricing models, they assume lower monthly payments. However, there would undoubtedly be a substantial amount of extra interest to be paid throughout the full loan term compared to a standard 30-year term.
• Although this could help some buyers get DTI qualified in expensive zones.
• However, borrowers can slow their equity build and extend their interest-rate exposure on the loan.
• This week in experts’ discussions, the trade-offs in loans were more focused on.

Editor’s Notes and Fact

• Current Mayor of New York City: The winner of this election is confirmed as Zohran Mamdani.
• He won his position on November 4, 2025.
• His inauguration is on January 1, 2026.
• Current Director of the FHFA, Bill/William J. Pulte, has been featured in official letters and press releases cosigned this month as FHFA Director.
• Absence of the data: Since there was a 43-day government shutdown that lasted until November 12, there were several regular BLS releases (the CPI for October, the jobless rate for October) that were not sent out, and everyone is working to get their schedules back to normal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MACvCiR0gnU

What’s New on GCA Forums: Breaking National News – Monday, November 17, 2025

Greetings from GCA Forums, your source for live national breaking news, SEO-based economic news, and geopolitical news analysis. We provide you with the latest live updates on the stock market, interest rates, housing predictions, and other live data. Keep checking for live Presidential election updates, updates on President Trump’s economic policies, and the concerns of New York City’s first Socialist Democrat mayor. During our live broadcasts, we provide news from Turning Point USA and updates from Gustan Cho Associates. The data is current as of 10:00 AM EST.

Stock Market Update: Big Drops with the Dow Leaving the Economy in Shambles

Today, in the stock market, the Dow Jones closed badly. After the last trading session, the Dow closed just 1.2% or 467 points below its new low at 38,456.23. The S&P 500 also dropped, closing at 5,234.67, down 0.8%, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.1% to 16,789.45. The massive sell-offs in the tech sector pushed the markets lower. The VIX spiked to 22.5, indicating the fear that is currently in control of the markets and potentially leading the world toward inflation. The major movers with the Dow dropped 3.5% and closed at 189.76, with different major movers closing close in the red. 0.4 in app positive events at 210.45 with the Dow closing to the red. President Trump’s proposals have consistently closed at 3.5 major moves, dropping 1.2%. The majors have left with big moves, dropping worse. Analysts have summarized that the Dow Jones has dropped and closed BADLY. The big drops in the Dow have left the economy in shambles. The world is suffering from massive sell-offs in tech. Dow closed BADLY!

Interest Rates According to the Fed: Fed Holds Steady with More Hikes Coming

With a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, the Fed is closely monitoring interest rates, with no changes indicated since the last meeting. However, there have been indications of quarter-point hikes in December as a countermeasure against inflation. Live mortgage rates have also been increasing; Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage has increased to 7.15% from 6.95% last month. For 15-year fixed rates, we have increased to 6.45%. A forecast of housing and mortgage trends suggests a national average home price of $425,000 in December, with a 3% expected yearly increase. Additionally, it projects a 5% decrease in existing home sales in Q4 2025, accompanied by a slowdown in home sales due to declining affordability.

Current Economic Indicators: GDP, CPI, Inflation, and Unemployment Rate

According to the most recent data releases, the U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2025 grew 2.1% on an annualized basis, as per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is down from 2.8% for the second quarter of 2025, mainly reflecting the slowdown of consumer spending and reduced output in the manufacturing sector. Recent CPI data releases indicate that the CPI increased by 0.3% in October 2023. This annualized CPI is now 3.4%, well above the Fed’s target of 2%. Inflation is high at 3.2% for core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. This high core inflation is mainly due to high energy prices and the high cost of shelter. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate is now at 4.2%, up from 4.1% the previous month. This corresponds to 7.1 million unemployed people in the country. According to the most recent data releases, nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 150,000 in October. This is a low number, given the expectation of 200,000, primarily due to weakness in the retail and hospitality service sectors.

Repossession, Bankruptcy, and Shutting Down Across the Auto Industry

There seems to be new bleak news from the automotive industry every day: over the past year, car repossession has skyrocketed by 25%, with 1.2 million cars repossessed in 2025, on top of the already tough high-interest environment. Bankruptcies are at an all-time high in the dealerships as well, with 450 car dealerships closing in the last three months alone, including several major chains from California and Texas. CarMax, for example, recently confirmed massive daily losses of $1.8 billion due to cutthroat competition and high interest rates. The prices of cars are increasing at an alarming pace with every passing day. The average new car is now selling for $49,500, a 4% increase over last year, which is squeezing buyers on affordability and pushing more people towards repossession.

Proposal for Trump’s 50 Year Mortgage and Its Effects on Homeowners and Home Buyers

President Trump’s 50-year mortgage proposal is back in the news. Last week, President Trump announced that under this proposal, the length of mortgage terms will now be increased from 30 years to 50 years. This allows qualifying borrowers to reduce their payments by 20%-30% less than the standard. In terms of Homeowners, this would make it much easier for many to refinance under their current high mortgage rates and reduce the risks of mortgage default. Experts say it could save borrowers $200 to $400 each month on a $400 000 loan. This would save many families a great deal. However, Critics do point out that because the loan will now be paid over a longer period, a lot more interest will be paid on the loan. This could add $100 000 or more to a person’s payments over their lifetime. For homebuyers, it significantly helps with affordability in a tight market. Their home prices are likely to inflate to a greater extent. The proposal, related to FHA and VA loans, is in congressional review. This is likely to shape live housing forecasts by stabilizing the market, potentially mitigating recessions in 2026.

Are Trump’s $2000 Stimulus Check Talks Making Economic Relief A Reality?

A live economic stimulus news update reveals that discussions about Trump’s $ 2,000 stimulus check have begun to gain traction. Recently, Trump added $2000 stimulus checks and $1000 child payments for low- and middle-income families earning under $ 150,000 to his inflation-fighting and spending incentives. Following recent budgetary discussions, White House officials claim a stimulus payment could be issued as early as Q1 2022, and proponents argue it could result in an additional 0.5% growth in GDP. Critics of the stimulus argue that it could increase the $35 trillion national debt. However, recent GallupGallup polls have shown that 65% of the public is in favor of the stimulus. With the increase in the costs of groceries and energy, support for the stimulus has grown.

Impacts of the Recent Government Shutdown End

The government shutdown ended after a bipartisan agreement was reached just before the weekend. The shutdown lasted 28 days, during which time the government ignored the budget proposals presented, including a deal on border security and spending caps. The Democratic Party received an additional SNAP and Medicaid expansion, as well as Social Programs, DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), and a protective win resolution addressing progressive concerns. The Democratic Party gave the Republican Party a win by agreeing to a bipartisan spending resolution. The Democratic Left was criticized for overshadowing and prolonging the shutdown’s duration. President Trump signed the bipartisan agreement to end the government shutdown and a new resolution to resume business. Recent economic data indicate a $15 billion loss in economic growth due to these expenditures.

Concerns in the Live Election Numbers of NYC FIRST Socialist Democrat Mayor Zohran Mondhami

As of the closing of the NYC mayoral election, Mondhami (Democratic Socialist) has won the election, receiving 52% of the votes (about 1.8 million ballots) while beating the Republican Jesse Hurwitz by 8 points. The Democratic Socialist mayoral candidate in the U.S. has the highest vote count and received more votes than any of the other Democratic candidates running in the primary. There was a 68% voter turnout, the highest in over a decade, which has raised alarm in other parts of the U.S. A Democratic Socialist is a person who advocates for democracy and/or supports democratic socialism, a form of democratic political system within the economy. Mondhami champions the losing platform that advocates the removal of individual ownership of properties, assets, and potentially other investments. Proposed legislation by Mondhami is an extreme wealth tax movement that is framed in an education and healthcare system (subsidized tuition, free education, healthcare, and public transportation) that aims to restrict the ownership of private property and is aimed at promoting equity. There is a fear and a criticism of an economic exodus. “NYC businesses are leaving at an alarming rate!” One thousand two hundred businesses left NYC in 2025 alone, according to an NYCEDC report, which cites strict taxes and regulations placed in the city. This is particularly a challenge for the Trump administration as it battles over federal funding and potentially undermines the U.S. in Business with a State.

On a national scale, this shifts the entire U.S. political landscape to the left, encourages left-wing movements to grow, but brings the risk of a backlash in swing states.

Current Events With TPUSA: Statements From Candace, Erika, Mikey, And Trump

Close to live news, conservative Candace Owens rips Erika Kirk, who she claims has out-of-touch flip-flopped policy positions of grassroots conservatives in relation to immigration, and discussed immigration last week in a Phoenix rally of five thousand attendees. New TPUSA Youth Outreach Mikey McCoy (McCo7, according to this news article on TPUSA) is a social media prodigy. At the same time, Erika Trump rushed a viral speech to the public to commend the excited Mikey McCoy, who has become the center of Trump’s infatuation, and to praise Vice President J. D. Vance for having family values and a vision that is needed for America to become strong, and to be unashamed. According to TPUSA, they currently have 1.5 million members and expect to hold midterm elections in 2026.

National Live Breaking News Compilation, November 17, 2025

Close to live national breaking events: a major winter storm is impacting the Northeast, resulting in 50,000 power outages; the Supreme Court has a session regarding regulations on A.I.; and China’s New trade tariffs increase already rising international tensions. Finally, in tech, Meta has announced a layoff of 10,000 employees from its social media division. She has been facing a decline in ad revenue.

Gustan Cho Associates Updates

Innovations in Mortgages and Growth of Subsidiaries

Gustan Cho Associates is one of the most prominent mortgage brokerages in the country. He has recently reported live business news, indicating that the company is growing at an unprecedented rate, having completed over 50,000 loans in 2025, with an emphasis on non-QM and FHA loans in this high-interest-rate environment. His wholly owned subsidiaries, GCA Mortgage Group and Capital Lending Network, have reported a 15% increase in revenue to $200 million, resulting from their recent expansions in the Texas and Florida markets. Gustan Cho announced new partnerships for 50-year mortgages within the company, aligning with Trump’s proposal, and this positions the company as a significant player in the affordable housing sector.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE0q1Cjuu-I&list=RDNSuE0q1Cjuu-I&start_radio=1

GCA Forums Update — National LIVE (Saturday, November 15 2025)

This is live streaming data, so there are no charts or graphs, and no weekend updates from the bourse. The data below is from previous updates, not live data. U.S. Markets LIVE Updates and Reviews

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq – Friday, November 14 closing values

• Dow Jones closed at 47,147.48 (down 309.74, a decrease of 0.70%).
• For the entire week, there was a 0.3% increase.
• S&P 500 closed at 6,734.11 (decreased 0.1%).
• Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,900.59 (up 0.1%).

Tech was able to stabilize after it was severely sold down the previous day. There is an ongoing debate in the market regarding the durability of earnings from AI capex.

LIVE Borrowing Costs, Interest Rates, Treasury Yields, and Mortgage Rates

• 10-Year Treasury Yield (Friday, November 14): 4.14%.
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-yr FRM 6.24%, 15-yr FRM 5.49% (week of November 13).
• Conclusion on the mortgage market: The 10-year mortgage pricing is currently around 4.1%, maintaining mortgage pricing in the mid-6% range, as a move in the treasury data is expected next week.
• Live Global Macroeconomics: GDP, Prices, Jobs, and the Unemployment Rate.
• GDP: The most recent report on GDP is Q2 2025 (real GDP: 3.8%, with the next quarter’s estimates yet to be determined.
• Inflation (CPI): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers is expected to rise 0.3% from August 2025 to September 2025 and 3% from September 2024 to September 2025.
• Labor Market: As of the last reading from the BLS, there were 4.3% of people unemployed and 22,000 noncompleted non-affected jobs.
• The government shutdown impacted the data, and the estimate from the Chicago Fed predicts that the October 2023 unemployment rate is approximately 4.4% (rounded to the nearest whole number), based on data from August.
• Why some October data are missing: The 43-day federal shutdown meant people we employed had not been working for 43 days.
• Due to this, we were unable to provide people with the data we would normally provide them.
• We were able to get some data from the people we employed.

LIVE Housing and Mortgage Market Update:

• Home Sales: Existing home sales are scheduled to be released on November 20, 2023, and we estimate that they will be approximately 4.06 million, a rise of about 415,200 (which is a record for sales of any home in September 2023) and 1.5% higher than the preceding month.
• Starts: The most recent report available is from August 2023, which indicates approximately 1.307 million SAAR for apartments and 890 single-family units.
• Forecasts: Zillow projects around 4.07 million existing homes, meaning the NAR could reach around 2025, and also indicates that there would be an average 30-year mortgage of about 6%.
• Bottom line for buyers/sellers: There is a sense of demand, with rates higher than they would normally be.
• However, the prices mean that homes are not particularly affordable.

Auto Sector Live Events, Flexible Sector of Prices, Repossessions, and Dealer Stress:

• Auto Delinquency: There are approximately 2.05% of 60-day or longer delinquencies,
• Subprimes are about 7.6%.
• The trend is that there are far more delinquencies than there were last year.
• However, the number of severely delinquent accounts is stable or even decreasing.
• Subprime snapshot (Fitch via trade press): 6.65% subprime delinquency in October (increase vs. Sept).
• Repos Trend: Cox indicates repossession rates have returned to 2019 levels in 2025.
• Car Prices: Average new car $48,841 in 2025.
• Still near record levels.
• CarMax: Multiple opp headwinds in 2025.
• Management changes announced on November 6 and misses to prior quarters have put pressure on the stock.
• Not losing billions in net income based on recent filings and estimates (FY2025 net income $0.5B).

Summary

Most stress in the auto credit sector is in the subprime segment, and the results for dealers are mixed; prices are higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Policy Consideration-50-Year Mortgage: What It Means

• Current Position: President Trump brought up the idea of 50-year mortgages.
• Leadership at the FHFA is considering possibilities, but no official program is in place.
• There is a sharp divergence between analysts and industry associations.
• Payment Implications: Independent studies estimate that monthly home payments for a median-priced home would be $100–$160 less than a 30-year mortgage.
• However, the interest would be higher, it would take longer to build equity, and the debt would be longer.
• Major Limitations: Dodd-Frank/ATR-QM rules cap terms at 40 years for QM, so federally backed loans would likely require changes to the rules.

(Notes on the analysis describe the legal obstacles.)

Perspective on GCA from buyers and homeowners:

• Lower monthly payments help increase qualification and DTI levels, but interest costs rise sharply, and equity builds at a slower rate.
• The refinancing and exit timeline strategies become imperative.

MONEY WATCH: The Stimulus / Tariff Dividend-$2,000-What’s True?

• Proposal: The administration has discussed a $2,000 “tariff dividend” targeted at middle- and lower-income earners.
• Speculation on income cutoff points has occurred.
• No checks are being cut.
• A finalized congressional plan exists.

WASHINGTON

• The Deal What It Did, and Did Not, Accomplish: The Shutdown Ends.
• Shutdown Period: 43 days, closing on the official November 12 with President Trump’s signature on the funding bill.
• The government is funded through January 30.
• Back pay is reinstated.
• What the Democrats Obtained: The bill is framed by GOP leaders as a clean CR with no major policy wins on the Democrats’ side (e.g., no extension of ACA subsidies).
• Coverage from several sources confirms that the Democrats omitted the extension from the deal.

ELECTION WATCH New York City’s New Mayor-Elect and What Democratic Socialists Stand For

• Result: Zohran Mamdani (Democratic Socialist) won the mayoral election in New York City (NYC) on November 4 and will take office on January 1, 2026.
• Reported vote share around 50%.
• Platform: Rent freezes, free bus fare, higher taxes on the rich, childcare for the public/people, and groceries owned by the city are all crucial for his career.
• Democratic Socialist: Socially and politically, a democracy leaning toward people having and controlling a lot of the centrally managed resources and the country having a lot more welfare.
• However, in practical terms, the US typically adheres to the European social democracy definition rather than full state control.

Note:

• We have found no verified public policy of Mamdani proposing the elimination of all private ownership.
• He promotes public control of social services and rent, as well as progressive taxation, but this does not involve the elimination of private property, which remains the focus of social policy.

MEDIA & MOVEMENTS: Turning Point USA / Candace Owens / Erika Kirk / VP JD Vance

• The aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s death leaves coverage of TPUSA volatile and contentious.
• Several counterclaims and social posts, most of which are ungrounded and under investigation. (Not endorsing, just highlighting):
• Owens made several claims and statements concerning TPUSA, which TPUSA-aligned and other influential people have disputed.
• Depending on the accuracy of the reports, tabloids and international outlets have disseminated information speculatively, which should be treated as unreliable until there is direct information from law enforcement.

Reports on Erika Kirk’s and Vice President JD Vance’s interactions and public engagement vary in quality, with very little independent verification.

Editor’s note: We are not going to publish any unsubstantiated personal allegations. We will only update with verified information and named sources.

QUICK HITS

• Bitcoin/Gold: Weakening risk assets affected both Bitcoin and Gold.
• A safe both asset bids and weakness in gold.
• Housing into year-end: Projections are calling for a slight improvement in sales, accompanied by a reduction in interest rates.
• Yet, affordability will continue to be a very large barrier.

GCA and Subs Here are the Updates

In today’s public filings and press releases, we have no information on Gustan Cho Associates or its subsidiaries. Additionally, we have not received any updates from you, so we will not be able to incorporate any updates into the presentation. We will immediately provide updates with quotes and internal hyperlinks if you provide bullet updates to us. We have videos, new products, the opening of new branches, significant closings, and funding information.

What Today’s News Means for Borrowers & Buyers-Actions

• Lock/Float: The 10-year rate is approximately 4.1%, with the 30-year FRM at approximately 6.24%.
• If you are within the 30 days and need certainty, consider short-term locks.
• Otherwise, be on the lookout for the data and calendar for rate catalysts.
• YCharts Affordability: Inventory is marginally improving, but the price and DTI pressure are present.
• Identify seller credits, buy-downs, or assumable as options.
• AP News Auto Loans: If you are borderline, you can expect auto underwriting to be tighter than usual, given the rise in subprime delinquencies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxPQvIi2F-0&list=RDNSJxPQvIi2F-0&start_radio=1

GCA Forums Breaking News Report Saturday, November 1, 2025News Desk Live

Finishing at 5 PM ET from our headquarters in Chicago, IL, we focus on real-time data regarding the latest developments in the financial market, mortgages and loans, and national immigration enforcement activity in Chicago, as well as conflicts involving Governor JB Pritzker and the Trump Administration. Furthermore, we gathered data on the cryptocurrency market, stock markets, prices of precious metals, and controversial news related to former President Biden and the pardons he was accused of receiving. All times are Eastern, and we will continuously update as events unfold.

News on the Economy and Financial Market as They Happen

At the end of this week, the markets are witnessing unprecedented buying activity on the stock market, and investors are still cautiously optimistic about the overall outcome, as they try to evaluate the situation. GCA members are provided with the bare bones details while working to safeguard an inefficient cash flow.

Demand for Housing and Mortgage Market Increase

Buyer Frenzy Ignited by Rate Declines

The US housing market is experiencing a surge due to a drop in mortgage rates and a 7.1% increase in applications on a week-over-week basis. This is also aided by the bullish sentiment among builders, according to the latest NAHB index, which rose to 52 from 48 the previous month. This is the first expansionary reading since July. Zillow data also shows that the relief for many potential buyers is assisted by their median monthly housing payment, which fell to $ 2,530 during the four weeks ending October 26. This represents a 1.4% drop on a year-over-year basis. This is also the largest drop in payment over the last year.

The Federal Reserve Cautions While The Public Struggles to Afford Housing

Although the housing market has shown some signs of recovery, the Federal Reserve has told a different story, warning of increasing overdue mortgages and the lack of affordability for housing, even as rates decrease. Real estate agents in hot markets like San Diego are skeptical about whether the current rate drop will thaw a market where inventory sits 20% below pre-pandemic levels. On social media sites like X, there is considerable positive sentiment about Opendoor Technologies ($OPEN), which increased 13% after the company reported positive Q3 revenue results and introduced new AI pricing tools, as speculation surrounding a climb to $82 a share is strong.

The Demand and The Forecasters

While the Q3 earnings forecast for Fannie Mae is optimistic, it is also optimistic to say that mortgage rates will fall below 6% in 2026, which could then release over one trillion dollars in suppressed demand from buyers. This raises the question for participants in the GCA forum: Will the new rates overwhelm the market with buyers if they dip below 6%? The answer is yes, but experts are warning that the market still faces significant economic challenges.

Interest Rate LandscapeFed’s Continuous Position after the Rate Cut

Like last week’s 25-basis-point cut, Chair Jerome Powell said the first cut for 2025 is likely to occur. However, given current inflation dynamics, the Fed’s steady inflationary policy is retaining the target range of 3.75% to 4.00% for the funds’ target interest rate. The New York Fed reports that today’s effective rate of 3.85% is lower than the range, matching the rate below the lower bound of the range. This is reflective of the more efficient interbank lending rates following the brush-off.

Focus of the Market on the New CPI and Inflation Figures

Next week’s CPI and the 65% chance of a December hike have narrowed and are likely the price for those December Fed meetings. Powell has bent over backwards to bolster his position and continues to take charge of the current hike freeze. Bond traders looking for a quarter 4 rise are encouraged. However, quarter 4 remains under a high probability of experiencing a quarterly shock. There is some mild movement in the Treasury; the 10-year yield is now 3.92, down 2, and the 2-year yield is 3.67, which is in a tight range.

Advice for Savers and Borrowers

If any GCA members are looking to invest in fixed interest, the current 4.2% rate for one year works well. The yields on the one-year CDs are at a historical high and are best for policy changes that are likely to come.

Trends in Mortgage RatesIncreasing Refinancing Activity Due to Rate Drops

Mortgage rates are dropping instantly today. According to Zillow, the average 30-year fixed rate is now 6.11%, down from 6.19% yesterday, marking a 32-basis-point decrease in refinance rates, which are now at 6.59% through NoraDA. The 15-year fixed rate is now at 5.45%, and the 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is at 5.89%, which is significantly higher than the rest of the pack. Freddie Mac confirms that there have now been four consecutive weeks of declines, correlating directly with a 7% uptick in applications as sidelined potential buyers enter the market.

Growth in The Type of Loan and the Area of Loan

The California Housing Finance Agency is in line with the national trend, quoting a 6.08% interest rate for conventional loans. At the same time, it remains alarmingly susceptible to the swings caused by the Fed’s words. Gustan Cho Associates’ assessment of the mortgage market indicates an overall APR of 6.10%, while jumbo loans remain slightly elevated at 6.25%. Discussions on X are reverberating around the new sub-6% rate predictions from Fannie Mae for 2026, which are bullish support for housing-related stocks and perpetuating growing optimism over the market.

Shopping Methods And Potential Of Savings

GCA Forums News alerts emphasize the effectiveness of saving strategies: With the help of Bankrate, one can reduce the bank’s savings by obtaining a 0.08% APR Reduction and can save upwards of $20,000 over 30 years. As of the 30-year fixed rate at 6.11% with a 0.08% weekly drop and a 6.13% APR, the savings on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are $20,000. Other numbers include the 15-year fixed at 5.45% down 0.05% with 5.48% APR, and the 5/1 ARM at 5.89% down 0.10% with 5.92% APR.

Stock Market Momentum

November Brings Good News

Stocks gained on hopes for a more favorable tariff policy and strong earnings in the tech sector. The S&P gained 1.1% to 5,850, the Dow gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 18,700. The Dow Jones advanced to 42500. The indices closed at record highs last Friday, reporting growth with bullish activity. In the premarket on Saturday, the numbers are holding steady. The NASDAQ also breaks a new glass ceiling at 18700. It feels “like the start of a new wave” after the election, tempered with the usual post-election fog.

Highlights for the Sector and Sentiments from Investors

The weekend recap from Yahoo Finance shows that Nvidia had a 2% gain and Tesla had a 3% gain, while the Vice President fell 1%. Trump Media and Technology Group ($DJT) was also affected in the whipsaw session. The market has extended by 25% this year, and most people are thankful to the Morning Star. However, the Morning Star believes that the market is overhyped. In X, many people discuss the reason for Apple Inc. Never reported any new revenue in the last 6 years, while the stock of Apple Inc. increased by 4 times, and some people in X call it a “Ponzi scheme”.

Change and Opportunities in Trading

Leaders are Opendoor ($OPEN), which rose 13% due to improvements in the housing market, Nvidia ($NVDA), which added 2.5%, and the VIX fear index, which is currently very low at 15.2. GCA trade ideas advocate long call options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) if the CPI report next week shows inflation is going down.

Precious Metals Rally Gold and Silver Rise Due to Demand From Safe Havens

Worrying political developments and conflicts in the world suggest that precious metals will be worth much more in the very near future. Gold is priced at $4,015.88 with a new record of $3,994. Silver is priced at $48.36 and has seen a 1.3% surge, approaching the October high of $54.49. JM Bullion has gold in the form of one-gram bars at $129.11. GoldSilver.com states that the weakening of the US Dollar has a positive correlation with gold prices.

Market Analysis

The forecasters at Gold Price Forecast believe that gold could reach a price of as much as $4,200 by the end of the year if the Fed maintains its current rates. These types of assets, which can be used as insurance against political uncertainty, are in high demand. X discussion segment reports that gold stocks and mining stocks, such as Newmont ($NEM) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX), underperform in price compared to revenue, which causes a disconnect and leads to a fear of new record prices.

Recommendations and Current Price

Gold and Silver are priced at $48.36 and $4,015.88 (up by $62) respectively. GCA Forums News suggests that it was recorded at $11.40 AM ET, to have lean and light portfolios in case of uncertainty. This is with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF ($GLD).

National News DevelopmentsImmigration Enforcement Conflicts in ChicagoProtests Fueled by Operation ICE

In the Chicago suburbs, the connection between a Halloween celebration and anger as the Trump Administration’s immigration raids met their match in Evanston’s ICE agents. The combatants and gay onlookers didn’t keep it a secret, while the denouncing Evanston Mayor Morrison called it “an assault.” An appeals court ruling today supported the Administration’s ruling. It erased a lower judge’s verdict, telling border patrols to spy on the Boss and submit “daily operation” drills to Chief Gregory Bovino, while the head of the department has been on a “who’s who” game, as a huge gap in the orders has been unresolved for weeks on end.

The Gaps in Practical Justifications—an Ode of Post-truth

The “inhumane” and “terrifying” practices Democrats, without the retroactive sanity provisions of the Massachusetts Secret Armings, assume will be ruled by the “Foreigners go Home” mob on their power. The American public speeches on X, torn asunder, spill components of each on “end of days” orders of National Guards in the climbing visa poker and the “Night of the Authorizable” stupidity of people that commandeered the political flame of Jin Roh.

Governor JB Pritzker is Spending His Time Not Supporting The Policies Of Trump. Pritzker Executive Order: Remaining Collections on SNAP Beneficiaries.

Food assistance programs administered under SNAP were cut on November 1 by the Trump Administration. In response, Governor JB Pritzker signed an Executive Order on Giving SNAP Recipients, which protects the beneficiaries of SNAP. Pritzker says, “SNAP was not set as a charity; it was a response to hunger.” X describes “Pritzker fights back on SNAP shut,” which tangles the ladder of prosecutions.

Controversial Pardons by Biden.

Surprising Minutes Of House Oversight Probe

Biden’s office was allegedly set to issue pardons to Dr. Anthony Fauci, several Biden family members, Gen. Mark Milley, Senator Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, and other members of the January 6th committee. This “slate” of preemptive pardons was set to be “null and void” by members of the Republican Party as an internal dispute of constitutional forgery and a fabricated crisis. Over 47 hours, depositions were filmed of members of the House Oversight Committee. In what seems to be a shocking twist, no evidence surfaced that attributed the pardons to the hand of former President Biden.

Close Attention to Certain Individuals

Documents suggest there was no presidential approval of including Adam Schiff, who had publicly rejected a preemptive pardon offer, which has attracted more scrutiny for him. Much like Republican Liz Cheney and some of her Democratic colleagues were believed to be protected from possible investigations from the Trump administration. The early PolitiFact investigations of Trump-era judicial activity have shifted from the more mundane to the aggressive Oversight’s efforts to have the Department of Justice nullify the prosecutions stemming from the Southern District of New York’s activity.

The Political Scandal and What It Means Going Forward

S. Trump has accused the new Democratic presidential candidate of undoing every pardon she can reach and of disarming the police of the pardon power. Excavating presidential antecedents and polling seal the derisive slogan “all fake credits.” The transition team claims to call clean vaporous streams of a. The departure of the soon-to-be-doomed pardon strategy of the GCA Forums News raises this query.

GCA Forums News Final Remarks

This Saturday marks the final chapter of this week’s indices, which have placed a daily cross in euphoria for stocks at record highs and in anguish for the nation, which still must grapple with the defaults of policies around immigration. The migration of information from GCA forums is unparalleled compared to the site itself. Each authoring party holds to the GCA Forums News positions the words presented. Avoiding fishy transactions that can lead to violating the NDA should always be free.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rNZ_AzOnrc

GCA Forums News — National LIVE Report (Friday, November 14, 2025)

LIVE markets, mortgage rates, CPI/GDP context, housing impacts, repossessions, and 2025 election updates—including NYC’s mayor-elect—today.

LIVE Stock Market Update: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Friday trading was choppy after Thursday’s selloff. Midday movements included:

• The Dow Jones was fluctuating between a 0.4% and 1.2% decline after an 800-point drop the previous day.
• Intraday reversals helped mitigate some of the losses.
• The S&P 500 was fluctuating between gains and losses, while the Nasdaq was recovering some of its losses after tech stocks declined the previous day.
• The drop yesterday came after the odds of a December Fed rate cut dissipated.
• Takeaway: Volatility is elevated as traders handicap the Fed’s next move.

Observing the federal funds target rate of 3.75%–4.00% with recent cuts last October 29.

• For 10-Year Treasury bonds, the 4.08%–4.11% range has remained steady throughout the week.
• People expect a 50 -54% chance of December cuts to occur.
• Context: Caution remains regarding recent shutdown data due to irregularity patterns.

For Mortgage Rates And The Market

• Currently, PMMS has 30-year fixed rates at 6.24% and 15-year fixed rates at 5.49%, with both rates increasing for two consecutive weeks.
• According to the Daily Lender, the 30-year fixed rate remains steady in the low to mid-6 % range.
• Mortgage activity has a direct impact, increasing by about 0.6% week to week for the week ending November 7.
• Impact Definition: Though the Shutdown has ended and the FHA/VA/NFIP are functional, the closings finalized during the shutdown should be addressed in sequence.
• Forecast lens: If the 10-year rate stays around 4.0-4.2%, rate relief into the high 5s/low 6s is expected, accompanied by softer inflation and a clearer path for the Fed.
• Economics: EX Am GDP, CPI, Inflation, and Jobs Converting To Other States.
• GDP: BEA’s latest official print shows Q2 2025 real GDP +3.8% (annualized); Atlanta Fed GDPNow last showed 4.0% for Q3 (model).
• Inflation calendar and data gaps: The BLS schedule lists the CPI for October 2025, slated for release on November 13, but the shutdown disrupted the collection.
• Politicians have indicated that some reports for October may be incomplete or generated automatically.
• Jobs for the unemployed and employed: With official releases disrupted, a Chicago Fed model pegs October unemployment at 4.35%, unchanged.
• Bottom line: Data visibility remains inconsistent.
• Markets are trading more headlines and Fed speeches than hard prints.
• Auto Stress: Repos, Dealership, and Financing Strain, CarMax.
• Repossessions: Reports indicate a surge in repossessions compared to recent years.
• Some coverage cites levels approaching those of the Great Recession.
• Bankruptcies or closures: Subprime debt automobile lender-dealer Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy this fall.
• Broader sector credit risk has been flagged.
• CarMax (KMX): Stock nosedived after weak quarterly results and a changing of the guard.
• It keeps becoming headlines with litigation.
• Relevance to Mortgages: Rising delinquencies within auto loans have the potential to reduce the levels of DTI and Credit availability for borderline mortgage approvals.

LIVE Metals Watch: Gold Silver Prices

• Gold: Approximately $4,10X–$4,20X/oz midday, dollar movements and rate cut anticipations keep it on a sturdy weekly base.
• Silver: Worth $51/oz at present.

LIVE Election Politics: NYC Mayor-Elect, the Meaning of a Democratic Socialist

• New York City: According to various sources, Zohran Mamdani is projected to be the mayor-elect (general election: November 4, 2025) and will take office on January 1, 2026.
• His key platforms include rent freezes, free bus transit, a higher minimum wage, and increased taxation on the wealthy.

What is a Democratic Socialist?

To be left-oriented is a description of democratic socialism. It seeks a more socially owned economy and democracy, as stated in encyclopedias.

• A shift from capitalism is advocated by the DSA, wherein they want economic democracy and worker control, which will be achieved by democratic means.
• Important note on claims: As of now, there is no credible source describing that the NYC mayor-elect will remove all private property ownership.
• The public part of the platform has rent policies, free bus transit, higher taxes on the wealthy, childcare, and more, and it’s not simply abolishing all private ownership.
• We’ll continue to monitor the official documents of policies and the documents of the transitions.

LIVE Conservative Movement Watch: Turning Point USA / Erika Kirk / Mikey McCoy / VP JD Vance

• Leadership change: On September 10, because of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Erika Kirk became the new CEO & Chair of TPUSA.
• Public statements & media: Kirk has shared emotionally touching statements, and has participated in interviews by media who subsequently published her statements and a photo of her TPUSA event embrace with Vice President JD Vance that went viral. Her moment with the VP has even been framed in emotionally supportive reporting as grief.
• Speculation and online rumors, especially regarding her and the VP’s moment, are rampant.
• Mikey (Michael) McCoy, the TPUSA chief of staff, has engaged in media discussions regarding his coordination with Erika Kirk following the shooting and the next steps for the organization.
• Candace Owens: There are ongoing social media and press accusations, and many claims remain unproven, particularly regarding the most contentious topics.
• Please consider these, especially those that are single-source or speculative, with caution.

Housing & Mortgage Outlook: Affordability, Inventory, and the Fed

• Rates are 6.2-6.3%: Payments are higher, just like origination.
• However, origination is lower than the high levels seen in early 2025.
• The resumption of FHA/VA/NFIP operations should help alleviate the backlog from the shutdown, which has been a primary cause of the delays.
• The NAR reported that as of November 20, 2023, it was selling homes.
• Macro steering wheels: Inflation data and job reports will be available this year.

Quick Reference Numbers (as of November 14, 2025, midday)

• Dow / S&P / Nasdaq: Mixed to lower after Thursday’s plummet.
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.08–4.11%.
• Freddie Mac 30 / 15: 6.24 / 5.49% (week of November 13).
• Gold / Silver: 4,10X – 4,20X / 51 oz.
• GDP (latest official): Q2 +3.8% annualized; GDPNow last 4.0% for Q3 (model).
• Unemployment (model est.): 4.35% for October according to the Chicago Fed model (official data disruption).
• Mortgage Applications (MBA): 0.6% w/w (week ending November 7).

What This Means for Borrowers and Buyers (Actionable)

• Lock vs. float: With the cut odds near 50-50 and 10-year yields sticky at around 4.1%, borrowers within 30-45 days of closing may want to lock.
• For longer timelines, consider monitoring for softer data over late November. (Use along with your loan officer’s pricing.)
• DTI awareness: Auto loans/revolving balances are tightening to capture.
• Pay-down strategies can help to tier lower pricing.

Gustan Cho Associates — Company Updates

• We searched for Gustan Cho Associates and its subsidiaries in today’s public press releases and corporate announcements. We did not find any new items from authoritative wire services.
• If you have unread data updates available for dissemination, provide us with bullet points, and we will compile and design them with our ‘GCA Forums News’ branding, including Call To Actions and internal hyperlinks.
• We will continue scanning and will notice any updates that can be verified and include them in the upcoming LIVE.

Notes Regarding the Quality of the Data (Impacts from Shutdown).

• Due to the extended government shutdown, there are some gaps and/or altered schedules for some of the official series (CPI, jobs).
• When possible, we cited our sources, official calendars, model estimates, or well-regarded media, and provided clarity.
• As agencies stabilize the release of data, we will continue to monitor the information for needed updates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VGjFqT105U&list=RDNS8VGjFqT105U&start_radio=1

• This discussion was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by  Gustan Cho.

GCA Forums News — National Breaking LIVE Update (Thursday, November 13, 2025) Market Snapshot: LIVE Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, 10-Year Treasury, and Mortgage Rates

• Stocks (Midday CT): Wall Street has taken a tumble while its customers sort through the second tower and rearrange the room around the flip.
• This leads to the opening of the Dow, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decline.
• The tech center is dragging.
• 10-Year Treasury (reference): The recent range is 4.09–4.13%, with market coverage currently pegged at 4.09% and projected to reach 4.13% in the future.

LIVE survey of the Mortgage Rates (national averages)

• 30-yr.fixed 6.34% 15-yr. 5.83% 30-yr FHA 6.03% 30-yr VA 6.05% (MND daily survey: Updated today.
• Freddie Mac’s average is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
• At 6.24% this week, and is expected to increase to 6.27% by the end of the month.

LIVE Interest Rates & Fed Watch

• Bond specialists expect a gradual increase in the 10-year yield to 4.21% over the next year, accompanied by a concurrent decline in short-term yields due to anticipated rate cuts.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that now that the Government is shut, the market is re-examining the data calendar to consider the possibilities of rate cuts.
• Let’s discuss this data further and analyze the numbers in more depth.
• Let’s discuss this data further and analyze the numbers in more depth.

LIVE Housing & Mortgage Market Update

• Mortgage applications increased 0.6% week over week (through November 7), marking a second consecutive week of improvement as some buyers return.
• Existing-home sales (latest available, September):
• Up 1.5% m/m to 4.06M SAAR: Median sales price $415,200 (+2.1% y/y).
• October data is set to be released on November 20.
• Home prices: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index shows slight year-over-year increases, but this growth has now slowed down every month.
• This series is published on a two-month lag.

LIVE Macro Data: GDP, CPI/Inflation, Jobs & Unemployment

• GDP: The most recently published data indicate a Q2 2025 real GDP growth rate of +3.8% (annualized), following revisions of -0.6% for Q1 and -0.6% for Q2.
• Nowcasts for Q3, however, were tracking near 4.0% at the beginning of November.
• Upcoming BEA update pending.
• Inflation: September CPI increased 0.3% m/m: Headline increased approximately 3.0% y/y.
• The October CPI was unfortunately delayed due to the shutdown.
• However, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimates it to be around 3.0% year-over-year.
• Labor Market: The October BLS report has not been released yet.
• However, based on the Chicago Fed’s real-time estimation, it is assumed that unemployment is around 4.3-4.4% for the month.
• The last official BLS estimate for August was 4.3% (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago).

LIVE Auto Credit & Dealer Stress: Repossessions, Bankruptcies, CarMax Watch

• Auto delinquencies: 60-day+ auto delinquency at 3.52%, little change y/y, with some subprime delinquency going down.
• This indicates that analysts anticipate a return to “pre-pandemic-like” stability.
• TransUnion’s Q3 update.
• According to the Cox Automotive 2025 Outlook notes, repo rates have returned to pre-2019 levels, while defaults remain about the same as before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Tricolor, a subprime lender and used car dealer, went bankrupt in October, highlighting the strain on the subprime auto finance sector.
• For Carmax, the drop in management level and competition level, which are lower than market expectations, has driven the stock down.
• Once Commander in Chief Bill Nash spent a few quarters in the well-performing market, Commander Bill Nash was slapped with a few quarters of failed expectations for profit and sales below market expectations for the 3rd Quarter.

LIVE U.S. Political Update: New York City’s New Mayor & Meaning Behind Democratic Socialism with a Tool to Examine

• NYC election: As of November 4, then 45 days away, Mamdani’s position has shifted from the traditional ‘Mayor of New York City’ to the pop culture ‘Mayor of New York City,’ reflecting a broader mindset.
• Now I believe.
• For me, it is level 4 thinking.
• I have all the details for this culture.
• It is level 4, then.
• Off for the rest of Mamdani’s 50.4% and all of the votes he received, which is 50.4%, and all of the votes he received were 50 quotas.
• To clarify, all the quota votes were counted that exceeded 50.4 percent of the votes in the passive enabling dominoes within 45 days.
• All these votes, which were counted, were in favor of Mamdani, exceeding 50.4 percent, and were the quota in passive enabling dominoes for 45 days or beyond.
• All the quota votes exceed 50.4 votes in the enabling dominoes, which are passive for 45 days.
• Important: Statements about the New York City mayor-elect claiming he will eliminate private ownership of real estate are a much more simplified version of the actual platform the mayor is running on.
• So far, the coverage has focused on private property, as well as social housing, and increased taxes for the wealthy.
• Therefore, the blanket abolition of property is also incorrect.
• We will review the official transition documents as they become available for more details.

LIVE TPUSA Watch With Candace Owens, Erika Kirk, Mikey McCoy, and JD Vance Rumors

• Leadership change: Following Kirk’s death in September, Erika Kirk assumed the position of CEO/Chair of Turning Point USA.
• Rumors and fact checks: Rumors about Erika Kirk and JD Vance, the vice president, have circulated on the internet, and fact-checkers have yet to establish any evidence to support the claims.
• The claims made about Air Force Two travel have been proven to be untrue.
• Latest comments: On October 29, Kirk did a TPUSA event in Mississippi, and that is where she venerated JD and Usha Vance for the support they had given her during the sad demise of her husband.
• Her act of veneration became very popular as something unique.
• Listen to some messages and videos where she opens up about the leadership of TPUSA, as she is one of the organization’s leaders.
• She who has been covered by the larger circulation of claims that are, in fact, wrong, and some of them.
• Personnel note: Mikey McCoy, also known as Michael McCoy, the Chief of Staff, has been attending public and television events since the Kirk assassination.

Kirk’s death LIVE Economy & Housing Outlook: What It Means for Borrowers and Buyers

• The bottom line remains achieving higher home equity loan rates, mortgage rates of 6.0 -6.5%, and closing application rates.
• If mortgage rates fall, the winter of 2025 will provide buyers, including those with FHA and VA loans, with the opportunity to take advantage of more favorable rate periods.
• Sales of existing homes are better than their lowest point during the pandemic, available inventory is improving year over year, and over the period from 2020 to 2025, general inflation rates on essential parameters are moderating.

Gustan Cho Associates — LIVE Company Note (November 13, 2025)

• There are no new corporate press releases or wires with information from Gustan Cho Associates so far.
• If there are internal press pieces to circulate, please follow the instructions for inclusion in the GCA Forums, including the use of hyperlinks.
• Markets: Wall Street Journal/Yahoo Finance – Midday coverage on November 13.
• Cover on the shutdown context and sector rotation.
• Mortgage Rates Today: Around 6.0-6.4% for the 30-year fixed.
• 6.0% for FHA/VA (applicable to national averages).
• Lock/decisions are based on the 10-year trajectory and the latest inflation data.

If you need a pre-approval within a day or a review without overlays for FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo, or non-QM DSCR, bank statement, or ITIN loans, please get in touch with Gustan Cho Associates at 800-900-8569 or visit our website. We can assess the current rate/credit cycle, and we consistently close on time, even in emergencies, with a very high success rate.

Editors that are currently live and may be within the confines of a ‘LIVE’ data range for certain estimable and real-time snapshots, which display US government records following the shutdown, as well as projected US office data. We will continue to cite primary sources and will refresh data as soon as it is available.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kN9wluIG3A&list=RDNS_kN9wluIG3A&start_radio=1