[Bailey]

Housing and Mortgage Market Summary: May 12, 2025 Key Trends

Mortgage Rates:

Compared to 8% in 2023, the current rate of 30-year fixed mortgages, sitting at 6.5–7%, is an improvement, although still high compared to the pre-2022 era. Remaining volatile, the rate will decrease to roughly 6% by late 2025.

Housing Supply:

There continues to be a 3.7 million-unit shortage as new construction cannot keep up with household creation despite a 2024 6.5% increase. Existing home inventory lags due to the lock-in effect.

Home Prices:

Moderately increasing, the median price is expected to reach $420,000 by Q3 2024. Growth is forecasted at around 1-2% above inflation through 2029. The bolstering of homeowner wealth increases for equity-rich homes to 47%.

Mortgage Performance:

Expect a modest rise in 2025 origination volumes of $429 billion during Q2 2024, accompanied by a delinquency rate of 3.92% alongside serious delinquencies at 1.55%.

Policy Impacts:

Trump’s proposed tariffs and the federal land outline raise the supply side of construction costs, increasing housing affordability.

Market Outlook

Opportunities:

Declining rates and increased equity may boost demand and inventory, particularly for first-time buyers.

Challenges:

Without major policy changes or rate shifts, the description of a “tremendous explosion” seems a bit too far off the mark, given the high tariff-driven costs, low supply, and rampant inflation.

Risks:

Tariff retaliation and the possibility of China selling MBS could raise inflation rates while delaying cuts from the Fed.

Recommendations

Buyers:

Prioritize monthly payment affordability over market timing. Consider incentives from builders and assistance with down payments.

Homeowners:

Utilize equity for renovations or selling if relocating, but consider the increased rates on new mortgages.

Investors:

Track Federal Reserve policies and their impact on tariffs, yields, and construction costs for a housing-related investment.

[Bailey]

The constant stream of voices on podcasts and social media can make navigating the housing and mortgage industry overwhelmingly flooded with opinions, especially when sensationalized claims dominate the conversation. Let’s sift through the chaos and concentrate on what matters most: applying the latest trustworthy updates from analysts and industry professionals. Many of you are frustrated with self-styled commentators and doom-and-gloom narratives that dominate the discourse. To address some of those concerns, I would like to provide factual information, but I am not, in any capacity, associated with Great Content Authority Forums (GCA Forums) or their news outlet. Regardless, I will follow the preference for professional-grade and reliable information.

Countering the Gloom-and-Doom Narrative

On platforms like Facebook or YouTube, “gloomers and doomers” content creators seem to be fixated on the worst-case scenarios. They often talk about how the housing market is ready to implode or mortgage rates are hitting unmanageable levels. This becomes even more dangerous when you hear of a podcaster with no verifiable expertise in housing or the mortgage markets. While admitting a few challenges, today’s market is not near the state it was in the Great Depression. To put it bluntly, most of the alarmist claims being made are filled with contextless contradictions.

For the sake of first-time homebuyers, I would like to provide a reasoned narrative by outlining my take on the current state of the housing and mortgage market, using recent data and trends.

Current News on Housing and Mortgages (Updated May 11, 2025)

Informative news about the housing market and mortgages has been collected from various sources. Here is a brief overview of what I found:

Current Mortgage Rate and Loan Changes in the Market

Current Rates:

• In May 2025, the mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage were 6.78%, a 15-year fixed was 5.95%, and a five-over-one ARM was 6.20%.
• Moreover, Bankrates.com reports a 30-year record at 6.82, an increase from what they saw in the early bird season.

Trends:

• Even though the rates are the same in September 2023, there is a sign of an increase.
• Earnings calls from Republic Airways and Schlumberger suggest that the woes of these mysterious forces could be decreasing, equalizing demand.
• Examining this moving goalpost is complicated when looking towards the future and considering the changes made to the Overseas Young Men’s Club Tariff.
• Changing locks on slowly resetting factors like tariffs and inflation would spell disaster.

Circumstances:

• Surging inflation has hit normal users particularly hard in the last decade.
• Home prices hit 403,700 dollars in March 2025, up from 2,000 to their current 2,870, making the ambitions’ monthly payments tough.
• But the good side is no different from the upper limit of 50 averaged.

Real Estate Activity: Sluggish but Showing Signs of Life

Demand Spike:

• New American Funding noted an increase in buyer interest, with mortgage applications reaching a peak on May 7, 2025.
• This is attributed to increasing buyer confidence, possibly from stabilizing rates or pent-up demand.

Sales, Listings, and Market Trends:

• As of March 2025, existing home sales were down 5.9% month-over-month, and pending sales were down 2.8% year-over-year, indicating a downturn in the market.
• However, new listings have risen 6.1% year-over-year, indicating increased inventory.
• Additionally, the median days on the home market have increased, demonstrating a slower sales pace.

Pricing Problems:

• First-time buyers are facing new challenges when it comes to affordability as prices continue to remain high.
• The median family income of $97,800 in 2024 and rising home values and student debt create additional strain.
• On the other hand, some buyers are taking advantage of FHA and 203(k) loans, which allow for lower barriers to entry, such as a 580 credit score and only 3.5% down payment requirements.

Refinancing Opportunities:

• Increased credit card debt draws more buyers towards refinancing options.
• Industry leaders, like Patty Arvielo from New American Funding, expect a booming refinance market.

Buydown Options:

• Rate reduction strategies like temporary buydowns (for instance, the 2-1 buydown, where rates are decreased by 2% in year one and 1% in the second year) are gaining traction.
• They provide temporary relief.

Regulatory and Fraud Developments

Mortgage Fraud Investigation:

• The DOJ is investigating New York AG Letitia James for alleged mortgage fraud involving lying about a home’s primary residence to obtain more favorable loan terms.
• This demonstrates some of the scrutiny within the industry.

UK Changes:

• The Financial Conduct Authority is lifting some restrictions on mortgage lending in the UK by streamlining affordability evaluations, which may ignite similar debates in the US.

Economic and Policy Influences

Concerns about a Global Trade Policy:

• President Trump’s new tariffs may impede international commerce, jeopardize supply chains, and raise inflation, increasing mortgage rates.

Federal Reserve Approach:

• The pause in rate cuts suggests mortgage rates won’t fall quickly, as the Fed remains cautious due to unpredictable economic conditions.

Consumer spending:

• Subdued consumer confidence and the current economic landscape have delayed high-value purchases.
• Still, a rebound remains possible if economic conditions improve.

Doomsayers and Their Myths:

A Perspective Shift

• The podcasters asserting that the mortgage rate is “sky-high” or that the housing market is “at its worst ever since the Great Depression” are using hyperbole to grab attention.

Here is the analysis:

Not the Great Depression:

• During the Great Depression, unemployment was above 20%, and home prices fell by 25-50%.
• Now, unemployment is roughly 4%, and, in many regions, home prices are stable or rising.
• The 2008 financial crisis was more severe than today due to rampant foreclosures and a freeze in the credit market.

Rates in Context:

• Mortgage rates of 6.78-6.82% are high compared to 2020-2021.
• However, they are lower than the 18% peak in the 1980s and the 7.5-8% average during the 1990s.
• Statements claiming rates are “going through the roof” completely ignore historical benchmarks.

First-Time Buyers Not Fully Priced Out:

• Even though the market has become more difficult with players such as first-time buyers, there are still FHA loans, VA loans, and down payment assistance programs, making it easier for first-time buyers to purchase homes.
• On top of that, 56% of borrowers only get preapproval from one lender, improving their chances.

Unqualified Voices:

• Numerous podcasters do not possess an NMLS license and do not have experience as mortgage loan originators, realtors, or economists.
• Unlike HousingWire, Bankrate, and Mortgage News Daily, whose forecasts are made by licensed professionals or vetted industry experts, podcasters base their forecasts solely on fear.

Advice for First-Time Homebuyers

While the market does not seem apocalyptic, it is surely tough. Here’s how to tackle it:

Don’t Settle for the First Offer:

• Getting preapproved by one lender does not mean you have to stop there.
• Always check multiple lenders to achieve the lowest rate available.

Check for Other Loan Types:

• There are loans like FHA (3.5% down, 580+ credit score), VA loans for veteran members, and 203(k) loans for those looking to buy and repair homes that ease access.

Buydown Considerations:

• Temporary buydowns that reduce payments in the short term can make the first few years affordable.

Hire Experts:

• Always hire professionals such as NMLS-licensed mortgage loan originators or certified financial advisors.
• Don’t rely on social media personalities without verification.

Market Timing:

• Risking a “crash” in rates overlooks the unpredictability of forecasts.
• If you find a favorable home within your budget, buying now is better, as rates could be locked and refinanced later if rates drop.

Stay Informed:

• Follow credible and professional sources for data-driven updates, such as HousingWire, Bankrate, or Mortgage News Daily.
• For GCA Forums, trustworthy content can be directly trusted by licensed professionals if it can be trusted.

Why Trust This Analysis?

This is unlike podcasters, who chase views and do not prioritize the truth. This has been analyzed against data from reputable sources such as HousingWire, Bankrate, and Mortgage News Daily, which hire or cite professionals bound by ethics and licensed and editorial standards. X posts are added carefully to capture sentiment but are ignored as truth without verification. My approach scrutinizes panic narratives, adding historical counterclaims, turning your trusted facts credible, and balancing harsh exaggerations you expect alongside professional analysis and verification.

High interest rates, economic uncertainty, and affordability issues are all hurdles homeowners face in today’s market. This doesn’t spell apocalypse, though – far from it. The market offers considerable help for first-time buyers through government-backed loans or strategic rate shopping. Overlook the noise made by amateur podcasters without formal credentials and instead make choices based on cold, hard facts. If you are interested, I can develop deeper analyses of loan options, local market trends, or GCA Forums content if you share a link or details. Please tell me how else I can help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0_Xg6_MKxs

[Bailey]

National Headline News Overview for March 18, 2025

The Real Estate Riddle

Home Inventory Challenges:

• During the pandemic, the housing market’s inventory issues have worsened, with the number of homes for sale now approximately 30% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
• This trend has also led to a 10% increase in median home prices year over year, which poses challenges relating to accessibility for many buyers.

Mortgage Rates and Interest Rates

Current Mortgage Rates:

• As of March 18, 2025, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan is around 6.68%.
• These rates may decrease as the Federal Reserve continues working through various economic factors.

Homebuyer Recommendations:

• Researching different loan programs is encouraged, as many experts suggest moving quickly before additional rate increases happen.

Economic Overview

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

• The most recent CPI report shows inflation easing to 2.8% for February compared to 3.0% in January.
• This drop could impact several of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.

GDP Growth:

• The Congressional Budget Office expects GDP growth of approximately 2.5% for 2025, a projected decline from the previous year but still indicating economic strength.

Unemployment Trends

Stable Job Market:

• The unemployment rate stays relatively constant with only minor fluctuations, currently at approximately 4%.
• Job growth is beginning to show signs of slowing down.
• This moderating growth may reduce some inflation difficulties.

Federal Reserve Board Actions

Monetary Policy:

• The Fed examines inflation and other economic activity indicators, indicating that it will proceed cautiously in increasing interest rates, depending on how conditions evolve.

Stock Market Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

• While the Dow has been rather volatile, it has managed to stay around the 32,000 mark due to investors responding to predominately mixed economic data alongside pending policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Precious Metals and Other Markets

Gold Prices:

• Gold is expected to sell for around $2,924 per ounce in the middle of March, reflecting growing demand for safe-haven gold assets during geopolitical unease.

Bond Market:

• As inflation and interest rate forecasts shift, investors change their approach to the bond market, resulting in shifting yields.

Political and Legal Developments

Biden’s Pardons and Legal Concerns

• President Biden’s decision to pardon 1,500 people, including some close family members and political allies, such as Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci, and Adam Schiff, comes under scrutiny because the reasonable expectation is that these pardons are void due to an auto-pen signing of what seems to be generic signatures on each pardon.
• This creates an enormous amount of controversy regarding the legal premise.

U.S. Attorney Pam Bondi’s Fraud Prosecutions

U.S. Attorney Pam Bondi has commenced legal action against numerous politicians and other individuals for alleged fraudulent activity. These prosecutions, which target financial crimes and corruption, signify attempts to repair widespread fraudulent activity in public service.

As of March 18, 2025, the nation’s state is extremely volatile due to profound changes in real estate and mortgage markets and immense political and legal headwinds. Participants from all industries need to pay attention as these trends develop further.

[Bailey]

Indeed, there were discussions and attempts to modify the U.S. Constitution with respect to the power of presidential pardon, albeit none have gone through the required legislative procedures.

Following are some attempts and discussions of these:

Historical Proposals:

• Over the years, a number of American lawmakers and legal scholars have come up with suggestions proposing a limitation or at least some form of clarification to the presidential pardoning powers.
• These suggestions came as a direct response to controversial and highly publicized pardons that sparked a nationwide wave of public anger.

Post-Watergate Reforms:

• There were debates to limit the pardon powers after President Ford pardoned former President Nixon due to fears of future misuse.
• There were suggestions that stated pardons should be accompanied with congressional approval, or at the very least, be suffocated for serious crimes.

1980s and 1990s Discussions:

• During the Reagan and Clinton’s presidential terms, there was a notable rise in the discussion concerning reforms to the process of pardoning.
• Almost all stakeholders advocated for more control and visibility over the issuance of controversial pardons.

Recent Proposals:

• More recently, there have been legislative considerations to amend the constitution, especially following high-profile pardons by Presidents Trump and Biden.
• Such proposals tend to center around issues of political corruption, granting an increased focus on accountability by enforcing a review process prior to the grant of pardon.

Regardless of the conversations held, no constitutional amendments concerning presidential pardons have garnered enough attention to progress through Congress. It is purposefully made hard to change or amend the Constitution in the USA – it requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, or two-thirds of state legislatures call a convention. After that, three-fourths of the states have to approve it. Therefore, suggestions to amend the pardon power exist as mere speculation and have not resulted in formal legislative proposals.

[Bailey]

Once granted, no presidential pardons have been legally contested as being irrevocably bound to the U.S Constitution’s executive powers, and would be considered nullified. Despite public scrunity, several pardons have been literally challenged within a legal framework but not fundamentally revoked. A few descriptions are provided below:

Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon

Despite ire and political unpopularity, Nixon’s pardon was never revoked and resisted out of court. The legal battles were more around the broader context and implications of the pardon instead of a claim for action that would seek to lift the legal order.

Jimmy Carter and Vietnam War Draft Evaders

Carter’s pardon was subject to criticism, but there was never a legal tussle where they sought to issue a challenge for revocation. The political cost was enormous but they politically processed these documents.

Bill Clinton and Marc Rich

Rich’s pardon did incur some backlash including calls for legal challenge but to no avail. Political arguments surrounding it were centered on the existence of a court without defenses based on political motivations.

George W. Bush and I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby

There were scrutizny and demands for his conviction after Liber’s sentence was commuted but the pardon received no legal litigation, nor was there debate to sue over it.

Donald Trump and His Widley Disregarded Pardons

Pardons problematic in their public reception, such as those given to Michael Flynn and Roger Stone, had no legal challenges that could rescind them. The legal difficulties concerning the questions for the underlying convictions remained estranged from the legal issues relevant to the pardons.

In general, the controversies surrounding granting pardons are numerous and heavily fraught with partisanship and agitated allegations. However, the legal structure dealing with the power to issue a presidential pardon creates obstacles to rescinding it after it has already been exercised.

[Bailey]

Ford and Nixon (1974)

Notable Pardon:

• President Ford decided to grant Nixon a pardon for any deeds he did during his presidency, including the Watergate scandal.

Challenges:

• This pardon faced legal hurdles and public backlash.
• Many critics also claimed it set a dangerous precedent for the American democracy.

Jimmy Carter and Vietnam War Draft Evaders (1977):

Notable Pardon:

• Ignoring the draft during the Vietnam War is considered a crime.
• However, President Carter decided to pardon those who did so.

Challenges:

• There were sustained protests from veterans and active personnel.
• Fulfilling the social contract and escaping were starkly divided, leading to intense public discussion.

Marc Rich and Bill Clinton (2001)

Notable Pardon:

• Financial fugitive Marc Rich was controversially pardoned by Clinton.
• He faced multiple charges for tax evasion and other financial crimes.

Challenges:

• People widely disapproved Clinton’s decision due to the political donations which came from Rich.
• It raised concerns regarding the money inteferance in the pardon and political inquiry became very common.

George W. Bush granted clemency to I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby in 2007 on the following grounds:

Pardon:

• President Bush commuted the sentence of I. Lewis Libby, who was convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice in the CIA leak case.

Challenges:

• The decision faced criticism for seeming to protect a political ally from facing consequences, igniting discussions regarding the legitimacy of presidential pardons in cases that are politically volatile.

Donald Trump’s term in office from 2017 to 2021 came with several controversial pardons.

Pardon:

• President Trump issued several controversial pardons, including those for individuals involved in high-profile criminal cases, such as Michael Flynn and Roger Stone.

Challenges:

• The pardons drew fierce criticism and scrutiny, especially from people who believed there was no substantial justification for the pardons other than the recipients’ association with Trump.

The examples highlight how the use of presidential pardons, this time in the hands of Presidents Trump and Bush, can result in multifaceted legal complications that provoke critical thought about the state of democracy in the country.

[Bailey]

Possible legal disputes concerning President Biden’s pardons might be along the lines of the following:

Dispute over the validity of signautres:

• The primary contention is concerning the auto-pen forgiveness signing.
• Detractors may contend that not personally signing the document as a president makes it a constitutional violation which renders the pardons useless.

Conflict of Interest:

• Lawsuits claiming conflict of interest violation might arise especially for the pardons granted to people within Biden’s immediate circles, which includes his family and political associates.
• Detractors will assert that the primary motive for such actions stems from personal rather than public-benefit concerns.

Nature of the Offenses:

• The spenders may also be criticized on the basis that the if the pardons were issued on the basis of indefensible conviction of grave crimes.
• Detractors may counter such arguments by stating that while such acts may be regarded as pardoning, actually it is a negation of law and public confidence.

Insufficient openess may be considered lack of transparency:

• Legal challenges might also center around the lack of openness concerning the merits behind the decision to grant the pardon.
• If the pardons were given in insufficient public exposition or reasoning, many will claim this is violation of the accountability principles.
• Biden’s opponents and legal scholars will at some point use the presidential pardon precedents and the context of history to argue there are no preconditions or baseline rules which serve these objectives.

Judicial Review:

• As a final step in a legal challenge, there may be judicial review, which will analyze if the pardons were within the legal constitutional and statutory framework.
• This may set major precedential rulings for the use of presidential pardoning authority.

These challenges could bring about intense legal scrutiny, giving the perception that the pardons are less justified.

[Bailey]

The track of the argument regarding the legal implications of an auto-pen rests primarily on the concepts of authenticity and intent with respect to granting pardons. Here is a summary:

Constitutional Requirements: As provided in the U.S. Constitution, the president of America holds the exclusive right to issue pardons. However, the processes employed in executing this power must follow a legal framework consistent with the verification of the signature being issued. There is a significant degree of criticism concerning the use of an auto-pen, arguing its application lacks the personal responsibility synonymous with such a grave decision.

Intent and Authority: The intent to grant or lessen punishment entails the intent by the president, which is indicative of a pardon. It is argued that if a signature is generated through an auto-pen, as opposed to being written by the president, it does not carry the required intent necessary for it.

Precedent: Existing legal practices regarding the application of signatures may also come into consideration. Courts may consider whether the signature made by means of an auto-pen fulfills the legal standards of authenticity in governmental acts.

Legislative Intent: This may foster an argument among legal experts regarding the application of auto-pen installed devices pertinent to legislative guidelines designed to govern the unconditional use of pardon powers issued on personal discretion by the president.

Judicial Interpretation: Any legal disputes would still have to be interpreted within the context of the courts. It is within the bounds of judgment whether the use of an auto-pen is within the bounds of practices concerning legislation of presidential pardons.

This could provide the basis for legal challenges regarding the permissibility of automating the pardon process through an auto-pen; these challenges doubtfully will receive any judicial consideration.

[Bailey]

Some of the potential legal issues around Biden’s pardons are listed below:

Signature Legitimacy:

There is potential for dispute regarding every pardon signed using an auto-pen rather than handwritten signatures. Detractors could claim this form of issuance fails to address legal prerequisites concerning pardons.

Limitations on Pardons:

There may be contestation pertaining to the scope and nature of pardons offered, particularly those extended to close family and political aides. Opponents may claim these acts demonstrate an overreaching authority and conflict of interest.

Public Interests:

There may be other litigations contesting whether extending some of the pardons serves public order, especially if those pardoned are viewed as having committed grave offenses.

Precedence Alongside Legal Experts:

Disputing parties can challenge other existing historical cases where the power to grant reprieve sentence enforced has been exercised.

Political and Legal Reaction:

Persistent bias may trigger partisan divisiveness along the party lines of the litigants and judges.

All of the above stated issues need deep deliberation and examination duing assigned issues for cross examination also requiring expansion of forensic boundaries of the use of flexibility of the presidents arms powers to extend boundaries.