[Bailey]

National Headline News Overview for March 18, 2025

The Real Estate Riddle

Home Inventory Challenges:

• During the pandemic, the housing market’s inventory issues have worsened, with the number of homes for sale now approximately 30% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
• This trend has also led to a 10% increase in median home prices year over year, which poses challenges relating to accessibility for many buyers.

Mortgage Rates and Interest Rates

Current Mortgage Rates:

• As of March 18, 2025, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan is around 6.68%.
• These rates may decrease as the Federal Reserve continues working through various economic factors.

Homebuyer Recommendations:

• Researching different loan programs is encouraged, as many experts suggest moving quickly before additional rate increases happen.

Economic Overview

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

• The most recent CPI report shows inflation easing to 2.8% for February compared to 3.0% in January.
• This drop could impact several of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.

GDP Growth:

• The Congressional Budget Office expects GDP growth of approximately 2.5% for 2025, a projected decline from the previous year but still indicating economic strength.

Unemployment Trends

Stable Job Market:

• The unemployment rate stays relatively constant with only minor fluctuations, currently at approximately 4%.
• Job growth is beginning to show signs of slowing down.
• This moderating growth may reduce some inflation difficulties.

Federal Reserve Board Actions

Monetary Policy:

• The Fed examines inflation and other economic activity indicators, indicating that it will proceed cautiously in increasing interest rates, depending on how conditions evolve.

Stock Market Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

• While the Dow has been rather volatile, it has managed to stay around the 32,000 mark due to investors responding to predominately mixed economic data alongside pending policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Precious Metals and Other Markets

Gold Prices:

• Gold is expected to sell for around $2,924 per ounce in the middle of March, reflecting growing demand for safe-haven gold assets during geopolitical unease.

Bond Market:

• As inflation and interest rate forecasts shift, investors change their approach to the bond market, resulting in shifting yields.

Political and Legal Developments

Biden’s Pardons and Legal Concerns

• President Biden’s decision to pardon 1,500 people, including some close family members and political allies, such as Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci, and Adam Schiff, comes under scrutiny because the reasonable expectation is that these pardons are void due to an auto-pen signing of what seems to be generic signatures on each pardon.
• This creates an enormous amount of controversy regarding the legal premise.

U.S. Attorney Pam Bondi’s Fraud Prosecutions

U.S. Attorney Pam Bondi has commenced legal action against numerous politicians and other individuals for alleged fraudulent activity. These prosecutions, which target financial crimes and corruption, signify attempts to repair widespread fraudulent activity in public service.

As of March 18, 2025, the nation’s state is extremely volatile due to profound changes in real estate and mortgage markets and immense political and legal headwinds. Participants from all industries need to pay attention as these trends develop further.

[Bailey]

Indeed, there were discussions and attempts to modify the U.S. Constitution with respect to the power of presidential pardon, albeit none have gone through the required legislative procedures.

Following are some attempts and discussions of these:

Historical Proposals:

• Over the years, a number of American lawmakers and legal scholars have come up with suggestions proposing a limitation or at least some form of clarification to the presidential pardoning powers.
• These suggestions came as a direct response to controversial and highly publicized pardons that sparked a nationwide wave of public anger.

Post-Watergate Reforms:

• There were debates to limit the pardon powers after President Ford pardoned former President Nixon due to fears of future misuse.
• There were suggestions that stated pardons should be accompanied with congressional approval, or at the very least, be suffocated for serious crimes.

1980s and 1990s Discussions:

• During the Reagan and Clinton’s presidential terms, there was a notable rise in the discussion concerning reforms to the process of pardoning.
• Almost all stakeholders advocated for more control and visibility over the issuance of controversial pardons.

Recent Proposals:

• More recently, there have been legislative considerations to amend the constitution, especially following high-profile pardons by Presidents Trump and Biden.
• Such proposals tend to center around issues of political corruption, granting an increased focus on accountability by enforcing a review process prior to the grant of pardon.

Regardless of the conversations held, no constitutional amendments concerning presidential pardons have garnered enough attention to progress through Congress. It is purposefully made hard to change or amend the Constitution in the USA – it requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, or two-thirds of state legislatures call a convention. After that, three-fourths of the states have to approve it. Therefore, suggestions to amend the pardon power exist as mere speculation and have not resulted in formal legislative proposals.

[Bailey]

Once granted, no presidential pardons have been legally contested as being irrevocably bound to the U.S Constitution’s executive powers, and would be considered nullified. Despite public scrunity, several pardons have been literally challenged within a legal framework but not fundamentally revoked. A few descriptions are provided below:

Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon

Despite ire and political unpopularity, Nixon’s pardon was never revoked and resisted out of court. The legal battles were more around the broader context and implications of the pardon instead of a claim for action that would seek to lift the legal order.

Jimmy Carter and Vietnam War Draft Evaders

Carter’s pardon was subject to criticism, but there was never a legal tussle where they sought to issue a challenge for revocation. The political cost was enormous but they politically processed these documents.

Bill Clinton and Marc Rich

Rich’s pardon did incur some backlash including calls for legal challenge but to no avail. Political arguments surrounding it were centered on the existence of a court without defenses based on political motivations.

George W. Bush and I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby

There were scrutizny and demands for his conviction after Liber’s sentence was commuted but the pardon received no legal litigation, nor was there debate to sue over it.

Donald Trump and His Widley Disregarded Pardons

Pardons problematic in their public reception, such as those given to Michael Flynn and Roger Stone, had no legal challenges that could rescind them. The legal difficulties concerning the questions for the underlying convictions remained estranged from the legal issues relevant to the pardons.

In general, the controversies surrounding granting pardons are numerous and heavily fraught with partisanship and agitated allegations. However, the legal structure dealing with the power to issue a presidential pardon creates obstacles to rescinding it after it has already been exercised.

[Bailey]

Ford and Nixon (1974)

Notable Pardon:

• President Ford decided to grant Nixon a pardon for any deeds he did during his presidency, including the Watergate scandal.

Challenges:

• This pardon faced legal hurdles and public backlash.
• Many critics also claimed it set a dangerous precedent for the American democracy.

Jimmy Carter and Vietnam War Draft Evaders (1977):

Notable Pardon:

• Ignoring the draft during the Vietnam War is considered a crime.
• However, President Carter decided to pardon those who did so.

Challenges:

• There were sustained protests from veterans and active personnel.
• Fulfilling the social contract and escaping were starkly divided, leading to intense public discussion.

Marc Rich and Bill Clinton (2001)

Notable Pardon:

• Financial fugitive Marc Rich was controversially pardoned by Clinton.
• He faced multiple charges for tax evasion and other financial crimes.

Challenges:

• People widely disapproved Clinton’s decision due to the political donations which came from Rich.
• It raised concerns regarding the money inteferance in the pardon and political inquiry became very common.

George W. Bush granted clemency to I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby in 2007 on the following grounds:

Pardon:

• President Bush commuted the sentence of I. Lewis Libby, who was convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice in the CIA leak case.

Challenges:

• The decision faced criticism for seeming to protect a political ally from facing consequences, igniting discussions regarding the legitimacy of presidential pardons in cases that are politically volatile.

Donald Trump’s term in office from 2017 to 2021 came with several controversial pardons.

Pardon:

• President Trump issued several controversial pardons, including those for individuals involved in high-profile criminal cases, such as Michael Flynn and Roger Stone.

Challenges:

• The pardons drew fierce criticism and scrutiny, especially from people who believed there was no substantial justification for the pardons other than the recipients’ association with Trump.

The examples highlight how the use of presidential pardons, this time in the hands of Presidents Trump and Bush, can result in multifaceted legal complications that provoke critical thought about the state of democracy in the country.

[Bailey]

Possible legal disputes concerning President Biden’s pardons might be along the lines of the following:

Dispute over the validity of signautres:

• The primary contention is concerning the auto-pen forgiveness signing.
• Detractors may contend that not personally signing the document as a president makes it a constitutional violation which renders the pardons useless.

Conflict of Interest:

• Lawsuits claiming conflict of interest violation might arise especially for the pardons granted to people within Biden’s immediate circles, which includes his family and political associates.
• Detractors will assert that the primary motive for such actions stems from personal rather than public-benefit concerns.

Nature of the Offenses:

• The spenders may also be criticized on the basis that the if the pardons were issued on the basis of indefensible conviction of grave crimes.
• Detractors may counter such arguments by stating that while such acts may be regarded as pardoning, actually it is a negation of law and public confidence.

Insufficient openess may be considered lack of transparency:

• Legal challenges might also center around the lack of openness concerning the merits behind the decision to grant the pardon.
• If the pardons were given in insufficient public exposition or reasoning, many will claim this is violation of the accountability principles.
• Biden’s opponents and legal scholars will at some point use the presidential pardon precedents and the context of history to argue there are no preconditions or baseline rules which serve these objectives.

Judicial Review:

• As a final step in a legal challenge, there may be judicial review, which will analyze if the pardons were within the legal constitutional and statutory framework.
• This may set major precedential rulings for the use of presidential pardoning authority.

These challenges could bring about intense legal scrutiny, giving the perception that the pardons are less justified.

[Bailey]

The track of the argument regarding the legal implications of an auto-pen rests primarily on the concepts of authenticity and intent with respect to granting pardons. Here is a summary:

Constitutional Requirements: As provided in the U.S. Constitution, the president of America holds the exclusive right to issue pardons. However, the processes employed in executing this power must follow a legal framework consistent with the verification of the signature being issued. There is a significant degree of criticism concerning the use of an auto-pen, arguing its application lacks the personal responsibility synonymous with such a grave decision.

Intent and Authority: The intent to grant or lessen punishment entails the intent by the president, which is indicative of a pardon. It is argued that if a signature is generated through an auto-pen, as opposed to being written by the president, it does not carry the required intent necessary for it.

Precedent: Existing legal practices regarding the application of signatures may also come into consideration. Courts may consider whether the signature made by means of an auto-pen fulfills the legal standards of authenticity in governmental acts.

Legislative Intent: This may foster an argument among legal experts regarding the application of auto-pen installed devices pertinent to legislative guidelines designed to govern the unconditional use of pardon powers issued on personal discretion by the president.

Judicial Interpretation: Any legal disputes would still have to be interpreted within the context of the courts. It is within the bounds of judgment whether the use of an auto-pen is within the bounds of practices concerning legislation of presidential pardons.

This could provide the basis for legal challenges regarding the permissibility of automating the pardon process through an auto-pen; these challenges doubtfully will receive any judicial consideration.

[Bailey]

Some of the potential legal issues around Biden’s pardons are listed below:

Signature Legitimacy:

There is potential for dispute regarding every pardon signed using an auto-pen rather than handwritten signatures. Detractors could claim this form of issuance fails to address legal prerequisites concerning pardons.

Limitations on Pardons:

There may be contestation pertaining to the scope and nature of pardons offered, particularly those extended to close family and political aides. Opponents may claim these acts demonstrate an overreaching authority and conflict of interest.

Public Interests:

There may be other litigations contesting whether extending some of the pardons serves public order, especially if those pardoned are viewed as having committed grave offenses.

Precedence Alongside Legal Experts:

Disputing parties can challenge other existing historical cases where the power to grant reprieve sentence enforced has been exercised.

Political and Legal Reaction:

Persistent bias may trigger partisan divisiveness along the party lines of the litigants and judges.

All of the above stated issues need deep deliberation and examination duing assigned issues for cross examination also requiring expansion of forensic boundaries of the use of flexibility of the presidents arms powers to extend boundaries.

[Bailey]

Current inflation forecasts for 2025 and beyond are based on several economic indicators and trends.

Here are some critical aspects of the forecast:

Fed Reserve Targets

According to the Federal Reserve, the ideal target inflation rate is approximately 2%. The Fed will continue to take action to control inflation and achieve price stability over the long term, as is expected.

Projected Inflation Rates

Inflation will slightly decrease in the short-term forecasts:

• Several economists foresee a gradual decline in inflation over 2025, with forecasts suggesting rates landing between 2.5% and 3%.
• This anticipated decline is expected to come from improvements from unresolved issues within the supply chain, alongside lessened demand pressures.

Long outlook:

• Several analysts foresee inflation stabilizing in the Fed’s target zone of 2% if other inflationary forces allow it under favorable conditions.

Key factors affecting the prediction

Supply chain recovery:

• Further recovery from persisting supply chain disruptions will ease inflationقاتpressure on

Labor market conditions:

• Signs of a cooling labor market may bring down wage inflation, which usually significantly contributes to the rate of price increase.

Consumer demand:

• A decrease in consumer demand due to high interest rates could slow down the pace of price growth.

Risks and Uncertainties

Geopolitical Factors:

• Existing geopolitical conflicts, such as wars and trade disagreements, may impact the inflation rate by unpredictably disrupting energy prices and the supply chain.

Global Economic Conditions:

• A recession among other developed countries may reduce their purchasing of U.S. goods, negatively impacting inflation.

In summary, there is cautious optimism about a decrease in the inflation rate by 2025. However, many factors and uncertainties could pose risks to this forecast. Analysts will likely scrutinize the economic data for changes and adapt the forecasts.

[Bailey]

Different possibilities could lead to a greater drop in mortgage rates:

Less Inflation

Inflation remains controlled:

• The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy effectively contains inflation.
• Sustained interest rate lowering generally favors lenders, signaling a less chaotic economic climate.

Economic Contraction

Signs of a slowdown:

• The Fed is likely to cut interest rates to stimulate spending and investment.
• Consumer spending and investment are regarded as one of the most powerful drivers of economic growth.
• Recessions are associated with falling mortgage rates as lenders adapt to reduced loan demand.

Demand and Supply Deviation

An increase in available homes is likely to bring down or flatten the price of homes, leading to lower mortgage rates. The competition may also lessen, leading to lenders lowering rates to draw in borrowers.

Changes in Federal Reserve Policies

A direct impact would be noticed if the Fed signaled cuts to rise due to economic conditions. This would lower mortgage rates. Such anticipation alone influences rates before they are cut.

Global Economic Aspects

International Financial Markets:

• An economic recession or turmoil in one or more of the world’s economies can trigger a flight to safety, with investors purchasing relative safety in U.S. Treasury bonds.
• Increased purchasing of these bonds usually decreases yield, which means lower mortgage rates.

IT Developments in Mortgages and Lending

Operational Cost Reduction:

• Technological improvements and changes in the lending cycle may lower lenders’ operational costs.
• If these savings are passed to consumers, they will reduce mortgage rates.

Changes in Government Policies

New Stimulus:

New government policies to increase homeownership, like grants or tax break incentives for borrowers, can cause lower borrowing costs. If government policy works to reduce the cost of borrowing, this could also lead to lenders lowering rates.

Regardless of other factors that could lead to a large drop in the interest rate on mortgage payment loans, the combination of these factors of interest rate along with government policies will shape the trajectory. Members of the housing market should follow these strategies to make the right plans.