[Jeannie]

Can you please provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the housing and mortgage news for Monday, May 12, 2025? What is going on with the Federal Reserve Board Chairman apologizing to the public from the Feds? What is happening with the ten-year United States Treasury market, up eight basis points? The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 1,000 points, and so are other markets. Seven hundred ninety-eight trillion is the levered-up debt. The market value of debt is 17.1 trillion. What is going on with certain states eliminating property taxes? How are homeowners’ insurance and homeowners’ association fees skyrocketing? Why is the market poised to explode tremendously? How do tariffs affect markets? How is the precious metals market doing, especially silver and gold?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXyHNtbtfAg

[Bailey]

Housing and Mortgage Market Summary: May 12, 2025 Key Trends

Mortgage Rates:

Compared to 8% in 2023, the current rate of 30-year fixed mortgages, sitting at 6.5–7%, is an improvement, although still high compared to the pre-2022 era. Remaining volatile, the rate will decrease to roughly 6% by late 2025.

Housing Supply:

There continues to be a 3.7 million-unit shortage as new construction cannot keep up with household creation despite a 2024 6.5% increase. Existing home inventory lags due to the lock-in effect.

Home Prices:

Moderately increasing, the median price is expected to reach $420,000 by Q3 2024. Growth is forecasted at around 1-2% above inflation through 2029. The bolstering of homeowner wealth increases for equity-rich homes to 47%.

Mortgage Performance:

Expect a modest rise in 2025 origination volumes of $429 billion during Q2 2024, accompanied by a delinquency rate of 3.92% alongside serious delinquencies at 1.55%.

Policy Impacts:

Trump’s proposed tariffs and the federal land outline raise the supply side of construction costs, increasing housing affordability.

Market Outlook

Opportunities:

Declining rates and increased equity may boost demand and inventory, particularly for first-time buyers.

Challenges:

Without major policy changes or rate shifts, the description of a “tremendous explosion” seems a bit too far off the mark, given the high tariff-driven costs, low supply, and rampant inflation.

Risks:

Tariff retaliation and the possibility of China selling MBS could raise inflation rates while delaying cuts from the Fed.

Recommendations

Buyers:

Prioritize monthly payment affordability over market timing. Consider incentives from builders and assistance with down payments.

Homeowners:

Utilize equity for renovations or selling if relocating, but consider the increased rates on new mortgages.

Investors:

Track Federal Reserve policies and their impact on tariffs, yields, and construction costs for a housing-related investment.

[Brandon]

I am originally from Chicago. I grew up in Chicago, was educated in Mount Prospect and Arlington Heights, Illinois, and went to college and graduated from a college in Chicago with a bachelor’s degree. I then left the state and lived in multiple states due to my career. However, I am considering moving back to Northern Illinois or Southeastern Wisconsin. I have read about the political chaos in both states,, how Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker drove the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois underground to a shithole and how Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers and Wisconsin politicians threw the beautiful state of Wisconsin to become one of the most liberal shitholes in the country. Can you tell me which state is better to move to and which city, town, or county is best to relocate to from Denver, Colorado? I heard about a judge getting arrested in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and how both states (Illinois and Wisconsin) are liberal states and true hellholes, as well as sanctuary states. Is the FBI and the United States Department of Justice going to arrest mayors of sanctuary states like Brandon Johnson, JB Pritzker, and Tony Ebers? What is going on with this county?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aa-eS-2-RWU

[Juan]

Choosing between Northern Illinois and Southeastern Wisconsin involves considering the political climate, economic conditions, crime metrics, overall quality of life, and personal preferences.

In the body of the email, I will address your concerns regarding the political situation, the recent judge’s arrest in Milwaukee, and what federal responses may be enacted against state or local officials. Additionally, I will make some suggestions regarding cities, towns, and counties that lean more towards conservative governance and avoid “sanctuary” policies while noting the strong rhetoric you have offered about the so-called status quo.

I aim to provide a decision-supporting analysis that is as rational, fact-based, and objective as possible. You don’t need to worry about where the evidence is lacking.

Political and Social Climate in Illinois and Wisconsin

The political geography of Illinois and Wisconsin consists of urban areas that lean Democratic, interspersed with conservative suburbs and rural regions. Your takes on both states as “liberal shitholes,” and “sanctuary states” appears to come from one-dimensional stories, perhaps amplified by headlines in contemporary politics.

As far as both states are concerned, Illinois Political Climate:

Illinois remains a stronghold for the Democrats during presidential elections. The state’s political capital is its population center, Chicago. Governor J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, has served his state since 2019. He follows somewhat progressive policies such as expanding healthcare services to underprivileged citizens, raising minimum wage, and honoring sanctuary state pledges under the Illinois TRUST Act (2017), which prohibits local law enforcement agencies from colluding with federal immigration enforcement, barring a criminal warrant.

There is no doubt that Chicago has to deal with high crime rates, budget deficit, and, in Johnson’s (2023) election, the continued lifting of sanctions as a sanctuary city has drawn criticism. Chicago has taken to X to express their distaste with Brandon Johnson’s leadership and cite his epic fail with the 15% increase in Chicago’s murder rates over the last 2 decades. Crime analytics reveal deeper insights: Chicago does show some improvement, such as a decrease in homicides by 13% from 2022 to 2024, but it still faces concerns with violent crime in certain areas.

Mount Prospect and Arlington Heights, the suburbs you grew up in, were more conservative, but still impacted by the dominant Democratic ideology of Illinois. These suburbs were safer and offered superior educational institutions to those in Chicago, which drew families.

Political Climate of Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a battleground state with a more even split in partisan competition and governance. Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, has held office since 2019 and poured funding into education and expanded healthcare services while shooting down Republican bills regarding election oversight and tax reduction. Though leaning left, Evers’ policies are tempered by the Republican-dominated legislature in the state.

Milwaukee is a Democratic bastion and the largest city in Wisconsin, having “sanctuary-like” policies, even if it’s not officially termed a “sanctuary city.” The city limits cooperation with ICE, forbidding the arrest at courthouses for civil immigration violations. Suburban Southeastern Wisconsin (Waukesha, Ozaukee) is more conservative and has lower crime and tax rates.

Arrest tensions have escalated, especially after the apprehension of Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan in April 2025 for ‘obstructing immigration arrest’. Dugan purportedly assisted undocumented Flores-Ruiz by directing him through a private courthouse exit. Many commentators attempted to blame both extremes for “overreach”, framing it as evidence of ultra-liberalism or federally intrusive Trump McCarthyism. There were subsequent protests, and cabinet members such as Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson branded the show more as a political stunt and court theater.

Sanctuary Policies:

Illinois:

Illinois remains a sanctuary state with laws on limited immigration enforcement, like the TRUST Act, which limits cooperation between local authorities and federal agencies. Chicago’s Welcoming City Ordinance further forbids local police from holding non-citizens absent a federal warrant for a crime.

Wisconsin:

Wisconsin is not a sanctuary state. However, Milwaukee and Dane County (Madison) have policies gingerly resembling sanctuary practices owing to limited cooperation with ICE.

Waukesha and Sheboygan counties have also engaged with ICE through its 287(g) program, which assists border control operations.

Someone classifies these as “sanctuary” policies. Supporters claim that these policies protect immigrant communities and foster trust between the community and the police. Contrarily, critics argue that these policies protect dangerous individuals and violate federal law.

FBI and DOJ Steps Against Officials

Considering whether the FBI and DOJ would arrest Brandon Johnson, J.B. Pritzker, or Tony Evers for their so-called sanctuary policies is informed by a recent combination of events and political statements. Here’s the background information:

The Arrest of Judge Hannah Dugan:

Dugan’s arrest fits a broader pattern associated with the Trump administration trying to clamp down on enforcement defiance by local officials. FBI Director Kash Patel announced the arrest, claiming Dugan “willfully misled” ICE. Attorney General Pam Bondi focused her immigration prosecutions on officials aiding non-citizens because of the safety issue.

This came on the heels of a January 2025 DOJ memo from Emil Bove advocating aggressive prosecution of local administrators for obstructing immigration enforcement. Also, former Judge of New Mexico Joel Cano was arrested for alleged concealment of an immigrant associated with gang activities.

Baldwin and Durbin have criticized these arrests, calling them overreach and arguing that they undermine judicial independence and discourage participation in the judiciary.

Probability of Arrests of Johnson, Pritzker, or Evers:

Based on the documents available as of May 12, 2025, the public record does not contain any information suggesting the FBI or DOJ plans to arrest Brandon Johnson, J.B. Pritzker, or Tony Evers.

To arrest a high-profile elected official, such as a mayor or a governor, one must gather concrete evidence of a particular crime, such as active interference with federal law enforcement. Such an action would encounter considerable political and legal barriers.

The Trump administration has sought to enforce sanctuary policies, with ICE’s Tom Homan threatening to go after officials who “knowingly harbor” undocumented immigrants. Nevertheless, sanctuary laws in Illinois and Milwaukee are crafted carefully to avoid outright infringement of federal statutes, as they prioritize non-compliance over active concealment. Trump has repeatedly attempted to defund sanctuary cities and has been blocked from doing so by the courts (e.g., 2017 executive order).

Johnson and Pritzker have publicly reaffirmed their sanctuary commitments, with Pritzker promising to file a lawsuit if the state loses federal funding. Evers has expressed criticism of the federal government, but has not stepped as deeply into the fray of immigration enforcement controversies. These arrests would likely be perceived as an extreme move that could invite legal consequences alongside a public relations nightmare, particularly in heavily Democratic areas.

X—formerly Twitter—has seen posts expressing anger toward these leaders, calling Pritzker an “oligarch” and Johnson a “disaster.” It must be underscored that such statements fall under subjective opinion rather than claim evidence of prosecutable wrongdoing.

Broader Context:

Tensions have been ramped up because of the Chicago ICE raids as part of the Trump Administration’s immigration crackdown. Many local leaders believe that these raids frighten immigrants away from the courts, which jeopardizes public safety.

Historical Illinois corruption, such as Operation Greylord and the Blagojevich Conviction, contributes to the idea that there are deep-rooted systemic problems. However, no active investigations associate Johnson and Pritzker with other scandals like these.

Which State and Area is Better to Move To?

Your worries about the political disorder, liberal governance, and sanctuary policies indicate that you’re trying to find a calmer and safer region, one out of the limelight with a sanctuary state designation. Both states offer options, but your preferences and lifestyle (urban proximity, cost of living, family dynamics) will shape the best fit. Here’s a comparison and recommendations:

Northern Illinois:

Pros:

• The robust economy and diverse job market, especially in tech and healthcare.
• The Chicago suburbs boast excellent schools and lower Illinois property taxes than Wisconsin’s high rates.

Cons:

• Chicago is plagued with higher crime rates, budget deficits, progressive policies in urban areas, and traffic congestion.
• If you consider these factors, Illinois’s Sanctuary State designation might directly contradict your views.

Recommended Areas:

Mount Prospect:

• As you may recall from your childhood, this suburb has a violent crime rate of ~1.2 per 1,000 residents, good schooling with District 214, and a median home price of around $350,000.
• It’s also moderately suburban, located 22 miles from Chicago with Metra access.
• Politically, it is moderate, but leans Republican for local elections.

Arlington Heights

• Arlington Heights is another familiar option.
• It has a vibrant downtown, top-rated schools, a median home price of ~$400,000, and a crime rate of ~1.0 per 1,000 people.
• It is conservative-leaning with a strong sense of community and is 25 miles from Chicago.

Lake County (e.g., Libertyville, Vernon Hills):

• Further north, these towns have excellent schools, low crime (~0.8 per 1,000), and median home prices of ~$450,000.
• These counties are more conservative than Cook County, with commuting access to I-94.
• The political problems from Chicago have less impact on them.

Southeastern Wisconsin:

Pros:

• Lower suburban crime rates, competitive housing, an appealing lakefront, a politically balanced legislature (Republican-controlled legislature checks Democratic governor), and an absence of a statewide sanctuary policy.
• Some counties even collaborate with ICE.

Cons:

• Property taxes are higher (WI averages 1.8% vs. 2.1% for IL.
• WI’s figure is lower, but still significant.
• There are cold winters and a lack of economic diversification relative to Illinois.
• Milwaukee has its own set of urban Chicago problems, like crime and budget issues, but on a smaller scale.

Preferred Regions

Ozaukee County (e.g., Mequon, Cedarburg):

• Prosperous, conservative suburban towns boast first-class educational institutions and very low crime rates (approximately 0.5 incidents per 1,000 residents).
• Mequon’s median home price is ~$500,000, while Cedarburg’s is ~$400,000.
• These suburbs are 20-30 minutes from Milwaukee and have a small-town feel.
• Ozaukee voted 58% Republican in 2024.

Waukesha County (e.g., Brookfield, Pewaukee):

• Owing to local schools, this area is politically conservative and economically growing (60% Republican in 2024).
• It has excellent schools and crime rates of ~0.7 per 1,000.
• The median home price is now circa $420,000.
• Waukesha participates in ICE’s 287(g) program, which aligns with stricter immigration policies.
• It’s located 15-20 miles from Milwaukee.

Kenosha County (e.g., Pleasant Prairie):

• Cheaper housing (home price median at $300,000), lower crime rates (1.0 per 1,000), and increasing employment opportunities due to I-94.
• Pleasant Prairie is politically mixed, but leaning more towards the right.
• It’s 40 miles from Milwaukee and 60 miles from Chicago.

Comparison

Political Alignment:

For those worried about liberal policies, there are more conservative strongholds in Southeastern Wisconsin (Waukesha, Ozaukee) than in Northern Illinois, where even the suburbs are subjected to the Democratic Chicago machine. The absence of sanctuary status in Wisconsin may better align with your preferences.

Cost of Living:

Neither state offers noticeable differences in grocery costs or utilities. However, Wisconsin offers more affordable housing, particularly in locations such as Kenosha. Although Illinois loses out on utility expenses, the housing expenses balance out compared to Wisconsin’s Kenosha.

Safety:

Both states’ suburbs fare well regarding safety, with crime rates far below the national average. For those preoccupied with crime rates, urban cores such as Chicago and Milwaukee should be avoided at all costs (US violent crime: 3.8 per 1,000).

Quality of Life:

Parks and schools are high caliber in both states, but community options and lifestyles are much more divided. Therefore, both offer appealing packages. Access to Chicago’s culture and employment is only available from the Illinois suburbs, making the heated competition for these highly sought-after positions in the Windy City even tougher.

Adjustment from Denver:

Chicago and Milwaukee have outrageous crime rates (4.0 per 1,000) compared to the rest of the country. Hence, the suburbs surrounding the two are much cheaper and safer. That being said, it’s worth mentioning how Wisconsin has the upper hand in safety compared to the rest of Chicago and Milwaukee.

Recommendation:

Best State:

For those looking for less liberal control encompassing more conservative governance around southeastern Wisconsin, the state is beneficial. It offers less urban influence and sanctuary statewide policies. Having a Republican legislature eases the political strain in Wisconsin compared to Illinois’ one-party dominance. Best Area:

Waukesha County (Brookfield or Pewaukee).

Overview: Brookfield has a vibrant community that includes top schools within the Elmbrook School District, a low crime rate, conservative values, and lower home prices than Denver’s (~$420,000). It is far enough away from Milwaukee to avoid urban challenges, while still close enough to access amenities. Suppose the Waukesha corporation’s cooperation with ICE policies does not concern you. In that case, they may align with your respect for immigration enforcement policies and sanctuary policy concerns.

Alternative:

Arlington Heights would work best if Illinois is closer to Home for you, or if Chicago is your place of interest. While more moderate and lean slightly safer, it is still a conservative area with many amenities to offer at the expense of progressive Illinois policies.

Addressing Your Concerns

“Political Chaos” and “Hellholes”

While every state has its struggles, Illinois and Wisconsin have been unfairly labeled “hellholes” as an oversimplification focusing on Chicago and Milwaukee’s crime and budget issues. Most suburbs, such as Arlington Heights or Brookfield, are some of the most livable towns in the US. Arlington Heights’ livability score is 85 out of 100. If these are of concern, avoid the cores.

Sanctuary Status:

Wisconsin lacks a statewide sanctuary policy. Coupled with Waukesha County’s cooperation with ICE, Wisconsin is less “sanctuary-oriented” than Illinois. These policies minimally impact suburbs in day-to-day life.

Judge Arrest and Federal Actions:

“Dugan’s arrest was a singular example of alleged obstruction. It was not a wholesale employment policy against an all-encompassing collision of officials.” There is no credible information that puts Johnson, Pritzker, or Evers at similar risk without clear violence or lawbreaking. DOJ is concerned with personal responsibility rather than sweeping actions of sanctuary leaders.

Corruption and Governance:

Illinois has a long-standing problem with corruption (for instance, 30 Chicago aldermen were convicted between 1970 and 2010). Still, no current scandals directly involve Johnson or Pritzker. The legacy of this corruption is less consideration in Wisconsin, where Governor Evers works within a divided government that limits his ability to act unilaterally.

Relocating to Brookfield in Waukesha County, Wisconsin, provides a more affordable and safe community that is conservative, less suburban, and has good schools. This directly addresses your worries about liberal policies and sanctuary status. Closer to Chicago, Arlington Heights, Illinois, poses a stronger suggestion that balances moderate politics with safety, familiarity, and overall American suburban standards. Both greatly offset the high cost of living and crime rate that Denver offers.

To continue, you can explore these locations to get a feel of their vibe, look over the local employment opportunities (if applicable), and assess the school districts if you have children. If you like, I can give macro-level info on specific towns, such as housing, crime rates, and others. Please share with me what matters most to you, for example, budget, amenities, and others, so that I can polish the suggestions more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kacNt8XQurs

[Dawn]

Is the City of Chicago broke? I heard Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson promised voters no property tax hikes, but changed his mind after he spent over one billion dollars on illegal migrants. I heard Chicago has no money, is on a budget deficit, cannot hire Chicago police officers, and may need to lay off city workers. Due to declaring a sanctuary city, Chicago and the state of Illinois are not getting their fair share of federal funding and grants. Brandon is doubling up and still firmly believes Chicago is a sanctuary city. The city of Chicago is short on hiring new Chicago police officers and promoting detectives, and it does not have the budget to hire Chicago firefighters and emergency first responders. The most incompetent politicians are running the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois. The city of Chicago and the state of Illinois are running on a budget deficit every year due to their negative pension funds. They cannot stop spending. What will happen with the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois? Do you think the city and the state will file for bankruptcy? Will Brandon Johnson and JB Pritzker be going to prison for their sanctuary policies and defying federal law?

FAQs on Chicago and Illinois Bankruptcy and Legal Issues: Is Chicago or the state of Illinois going bankrupt?

No official announcements or credible reports indicate that the city of Chicago or the state of Illinois is going bankrupt. Financial challenges exist, particularly in urban areas, but bankruptcy is a complex legal process not initiated by the city or the state.

Will Mayor Brandon Johnson or Governor JB Pritzker be arrested or indicted?

There are currently no credible reports or evidence suggesting that Mayor Brandon Johnson or Governor JB Pritzker will be arrested or indicted by the FBI for violating federal sanctuary policies or immigration laws. Both officials have publicly defended their immigration policies, which are designed to protect undocumented immigrants within their jurisdictions.

1. Sanctuary Policies: Chicago and Illinois have implemented laws, such as the Illinois Trust Act and the Welcoming City Ordinance, which limit local law enforcement’s cooperation with federal immigration authorities. These laws are intended to create a safe environment for all residents, regardless of immigration status.

2. Federal Lawsuit: The U.S. Department of Justice has filed lawsuits against Illinois and Chicago, claiming that their sanctuary policies interfere with federal immigration enforcement. However, this legal action does not imply that local officials will face criminal charges.

3. Political Context: Johnson and Pritzker have been vocal in opposing federal immigration policies under the previous administration and have expressed their commitment to protecting immigrant communities. Their actions are framed within a broader political and legal context rather than as violations of law that would warrant arrest.

While there are ongoing legal challenges regarding immigration policies in Chicago and Illinois, there is no indication that bankruptcy is imminent or that local leaders will face criminal charges related to these issues.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qwYO2xInYU&list=RDNS-qwYO2xInYU&start_radio=1

[Brandon]

Although neither Chicago nor Illinois is at risk of imminent bankruptcy, both face serious financial issues. Here’s a summary of concerns and potential outcomes:

Financial Problems

Negative Balance:

Like many major cities, Chicago and Illinois struggle to cover their annual expenses, hitting budget deficits year after year. This spending gap is primarily driven by pension obligations, increasing healthcare expenses, and overall spending that exceeds revenue.

Pension Schemes:

The pension schemes awarded to city and state employees are severely underfunded, creating enormous debts. The state and city must make substantial payments to ensure the funds remain viable.

Dept Collection Issues:

Illinois and its flagship city face collection issues from economic stagnation and fiscally irresponsible policies that fail to raise enough funds to meet necessities.

Prop Tax Absorption:

Following Johnson’s pledge to refrain from raising property taxes, spending on supporting illegal migrants has emerged as a substantial financial burden for the city to sustain.

Sanctuary City Policies

Federal Funding:

The creation of sanctuary cities may limit Walgreentech Chicago’s prescription-filling software’s access to some grant funding at the Federal level. Unlike most cities, Chicago and Illinois continue receiving substantial Federal funding for Sanctuary policies.

Legal Challenges:

The US Department of Justice is suing Illinois and Chicago regarding the sanctuary policies. These lawsuits, however, are civil. From a criminal perspective, there does not seem to be any evidence suggesting that Mayor Johnson or Governor Pritzker will be charged or imprisoned for these policies.

Potential Outcomes

Bankruptcy:

Should spending continue unchecked, Chicago and Illinois could become bankrupt. While such a situation would allow for de novo restructuring of a city or state, it would also incur significant costs, including, but not limited to, slashing services, employees, and benefits.

Tax Increases:

Further indication is that tax revenue will be increasingly derived from the property tax base. Chicago and Illinois will likely find themselves in direct contradiction of Mayor Johnson’s statements, who vowed not to raise property taxes.

Spending Cuts:

Services provided by the city and state may undergo reductions, including the scaling back of new hires and the slowing down of employment for new police officers, firefighters, and other important staff.

Pension Reforms:

Intended modifications to the tax-driven deficit and fiscal relief could demand drastic adjustments to the pension apparatus, which may incur prohibitive costs and require the amendment of benefits for active and incoming beneficiaries.

Political and Legal Context

Brandon Johnson, as mayor, and JB Pritzker, as governor, have rationalized their policies regarding sanctuaries to uphold the rights of the residents constituting the migrant population. Instead, they are simply part of a greater political narrative, not breaches of law that would justify arrest. The lawsuit from the other side of the aisle does not contest criminal actions; the claim alleged has its basis in unlawful obstruction of immigration policy execution.

Chicago and Illinois have severe financial struggles, but that does not mean they immediately threaten bankruptcy. The city and state would have to raise taxes, change spending priorities, and implement stricter tax controls to eliminate budget shortfalls. The debate regarding sanctuary policies and immigration continues to be a hot topic. However, no legal ramifications are arising for those in charge. Ultimately, Chicago and Illinois will determine how well or poorly they have the foresight to address their financial situation, deciding how the region will go.