[hiltonlee981 lee]

The 346k to 1.1 million jump is real, but listing count and months of supply are not the same thing. A lot of those extra signs are in Sun Belt metros that ran hottest in 2021–22. That does not automatically give a buyer in a job-growth suburb the same leverage.

What still matters more than the national headline is the lock-in. Owners sitting on 3% money do not list unless they have to. When they do, they often price like 2022 never ended. So you get more inventory and sticky asking prices at the same time. Days on market stretching a week or two is relief, not a crash.

If mortgage rates dip even half a point, the same thin local markets Gus mentioned can go right back to multiple offers. Affordability is still the gate. Extra listings help only if a qualified buyer can actually carry the payment.

I would watch local months of supply and list-to-sale ratio, not the 1.1 million figure by itself.