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GCA Forums News For Wednesday December 3 2025
GCA Mortgage Forums News – Live Daily Report: December 3, 2025
Summary
The Dow Jones is up 47,600 on the day, as investors try to come to terms with the new dip in private-sector jobs and the Fed’s prediction of rate cuts.
Mortgage Rates are still up 6% in 30-year mortgages, and most national surveys are still under 7%.
Gold is up to $4,220 oz. Silver is near $59 oz, both at near-record highs.
Housing is softening in most markets, but the percentage decline is only 1–2% over the past year.
Politics and law enforcement: The new FBI Director, Kash Patel, is facing controversies involving his leadership. Dan Bongino and some MAGA supporters hold conflicting positions. Candace Owens is also involved in recent contradictions, including disputes with Erika Kirk and the Kirk family.
LIVE Markets & ratesDow Jones & Financial Markets
As of late, Eastern Morning time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average as of now is at 47,588 and is now up 110 points in \ ( + 0.2 to 0.3% ).
Following the receipt of some alarming news regarding the employment rate, Wall Street dipped but remained relatively steady.
The news indicated that the rate of job growth had slowed.
Many traders believed that this indicated the Fed would decrease rates in the near future.
Major European indices and the S&P 500. American stock futures are now slightly in the green.
There was a period previously when the global bond and cryptocurrency markets were quite volatile, but these markets have since stabilized.
Significant chief macro factors:
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is now just above four percent.
Earlier this year, the yield was 4.8 percent.
The Fed decreased the policy rate at the end of October.
The target rate is now between 3.75% and 4.00%.
Market analysts are speculating whether the Fed will further decrease the rate at the FOMC meeting on December 10.
Inflation is approximately three percent year-over-year.
While inflation is currently stable, it remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent.
The unemployment rate is currently 4.4 percent.
While this represents an increase from a year ago, it remains a relatively low unemployment rate.
LIVE economic data: jobs, growth, and Fed watch
The most talked about economic issue today is the ADP Private Payroll Report. ADP indicates that in November, private employers in the US cut 32,000 jobs. This was a significant miss in terms of the jobs that were expected to be gained. This represents the biggest contraction of jobs in the US since the beginning of 2023.”
How American Workers Getting Paid More Rationalizes U.S. Wage Stagnation
Higher pay helps the economy overall.
But higher pay does not solve wage stagnation.
Workers are being paid more on average in 2023.
However, pay increases still may not boost real income.
With wage inflation, increased pay is offset by rising living costs.
In 2023, the average wage increase is approximately 4.4% for those who remain in their current jobs.
Employers now spend more to keep existing employees.
Employers continue to struggle with raising pay for those who are losing their jobs.
Therefore, it is much more challenging for employers to hire than to fire, which has led to the use of the term ‘no-hire, no-fire’ to describe current conditions.
Borrowers and Homeowners
More evidence is emerging that fewer jobs, even during harsh economic conditions, do not necessarily lead to a decline in overall employment, as other factors offset the decrease. If the condition persists, it is possible that Long-Term Housing Rates will drop in the event of a more severe economic recession.
Lower mortgage rates tend to be seen for shorter time periods during more severe recessions, while less severe conditions result in higher rates that persist for longer periods. Stable economic conditions make it ideal for residents to obtain a mortgage.
Housing long-term rates will drop in more severe recession conditions.
More jobs during difficult times don’t always mean a recession.
For now, the data suggest that the economy is in a slow-growth phase rather than a full recession. Update
A report today highlighted that 30-year fixed mortgage rates have landed slightly under 6.25%:
30-year fixed**, conforming is pegged between 6.0%–6.3% depending on the survey.
15-year fixed is arriving at 5.3%–5.6%.
A 30-year refinance is slightly higher than the purchase rates but remains pegged in the mid-6 % range.
For the same borrower profile, Government-backed loans (FHA, VA, USDA) typically price slightly below conventional loans, and non-QM loans are higher, especially for lower credit scores and recent credit events.
All GCA Borrowers
Today’s rates are materially better than the peak in 2023, especially for those stuck in the 7.5–8% range.
Marginal is still, and will always remain, an option, but pricing and documentation requirements will be stringent.
This is where **manual This is where manual underwriting and lenders without overlays becomes important.:
There is a Slowdown, But No Crash is Coming
Recent housing data show a **mixed, but slowly improving market:
National home prices are still increasing, but only 1.2-1.7% over the year, and approximately 75% of metros within the U.S still see annual increases.
Connecticut, New Jersey, Alaska, West Virginia, and Wyoming experience greater positive growth, while prices in Florida and Washington, D.C. are decreasing.
However, more than half of U.S. homes have had their prices decrease over the last year.
Predicting the Future: Zillow and others anticipate modest, yet positive, growth in prices.
1% over the following year.
The number of sold homes is also predicted to increase as mortgage rates slowly decrease over the next 24 months.
Summary for home buyers and owners:
This is not the extreme buyer’s market from 2021-2022.
Home buyers now have increased leverage in price and repair negotiations, although financial considerations remain a primary focus and reversionary equity of homes has worsened inflation.
The value of homes and the interest rates of loans have risen. Inflating home values and interest rates of loans have made money refinances and home equity lines of credit attractive due to their ability to be used to cover credit debt.
Gold and silver prices are skyrocketing.
Silver and gold, skyrocketing in value, are causing a lot of buzz in the world of commodities:
The value of gold has reached a record high, nearing $ 4,220, with a value increase of approximately 59 percent in the past year.
The value of silver has also reached a record high. It’s close to $59 and has been increasing at a higher percentage than gold.
The reason behind the rise in gold and silver prices remains unclear, and various analyses are being conducted to gain a better understanding of the situation. The inflation above 2 percent is driving the increase.
Others expect gold and silver prices to increase due to a scarcity of both materials.
Some are in higher demand, with a focus on silver as the more scarce resource needed for solar and electronic applications.
For many homes with gold and silver in their possession, the value of their gold and silver enhances the net worth of their home.
Borrowers should keep in mind, however, that because gold and silver are highly volatile, they shouldn’t expect to rely on the value of gold and silver for short-term down payments.
Borrowers should also keep in mind that the metals of gold and silver will most likely experience a sudden price swing.
For homes that are on record files, the gold and silver in question would be considered extra in terms of completeness of the record within the file set for the home.
Consumers: Record Holiday Shopping And Rising Debt Concerns
People are still spending a significant amount of money, despite households continuing to feel the financial strain.
Cyber Monday shopping is expected to reach a record high, with nearly $14.2 billion in spending.
Total sales this holiday shopping season are expected to exceed $1 trillion.
As reported by ABC and PBS, credit card debt is increasing, along with the number of people missing payments, and more people are using buy now, pay later options to stretch their shopping dollars.
Impacts this has on the mortgages:
If cardholders are building debt, PAID LATE, and their current DTI is above borrowing parameters,
THE MARGINAL FHA and conventional borrowers could be negatively impacted.
There is a lot of scrutiny on 60 Days and More delinquencies.
Holiday short-term borrowing intended for shopping could lead individuals to have their approval status dropped early in 2026.
Politics, Law Enforcement & Headlines: Kash Patel: FBI Jet & SWAT Detail Under Analysis
Kash Patel is currently embroiled in at least three overlapping controversies:
House Democrats are currently investigating whether Patel is misusing the FBI’s private jet travel for personal use, including travel related to country singer Alexis Wilkins.
Other reports indicate Patel is receiving criticism for reallocating FBI SWAT team members who are assigned to Wilkins for protective duties, and colleagues raised concerns about providing such extensive security to a private, non-government spouse.
Patel has publicly defended his actions in various interviews with FOX News, stating that he is entitled to a personal life,and he claims his travel and security arrangements are justified as policy-compliant
Notably,
Several accounts referenced in the media about Patel’s alleged lifestyle have been walked back.
Most recently, MSNBC issued a correction for stating on air that Patel spent significantly more time outside of the office at nightclubs than he did at FBI headquarters; ultimately, they admitted that the network had not verified this information.
Considering that some of the more colorful details being discussed, such as the various travel stops, the types of events, and the amount of money involved, lack strong public documentation, there is a need to distinguish between documented allegations and investigations, as compared to rumors and social media gossip.
Dan Bongino: Deputy Director of the FBI and Twitch Assaults
Dan Bongino is a deputy FBI Director who had just assumed the role earlier this year and is getting increasing scrutiny himself:
In a profile by The Guardian, speculation arose about Dan’s future with the company, leading to widespread concern within the organization after he stormed out of a meeting discussing the Jeffrey Epstein case and was considering resignation.
More recently, extreme right media and MAGA influencers have roasted Bongino after he gave a critique of Miranda Devine, a columnist for the New York Post; some of these people are accusing him of being a traitor to the pro-Trump media.
The recent rumors around resignations and mixing of the top management will not affect the pricing of the mortgage than they already are; however, they will have the following:
People will have less confidence in the Federal law enforcement of this country.
Modify the guidelines for additional investigations into Financial Fraud and other related crimes.
Increase the negative influence on those who are already overburdened.
Financing and Interest Rates
Candace Owens and Erika Kirk: Another Feud on the Right
On the right media, Candace Owens is once again in the news due to Erika Kirk, wife of far-right activist Charlie Kirk, and now CEO of Turning Point USA:
Kirk’s husband, Charlie, was murdered earlier this year, and she has since assumed the leadership role and broadened her media presence in the ministry.
Owens has publicly, on social media and on her podcast, questioned elements of the leadership in TPUSA and has been probing the details surrounding Kirk’s death and Erika’s actions.
Outlets labeled these as controversial and unproven.
U.S. and other countries’ media coverage state that:
Owens has made very serious, unsubstantiated allegations, conspiracy theories, and
The Times of India reports that a war of words is being waged for and against Kirk, as well as for and against Owens.For GCA Mortgage Forums readers, this is largely a political feud, not a financial one.** This demonstrates:
The splintering of conservative media,
The impact of unverified allegations on the formation of public opinion, and
The need to verify allegations rather than assume a factual basis for a claim, especially when serious allegations of criminal conduct are involved.
What It All Means for Homebuyers, Homeowners, & Investors
Rates can be better, but not “cheap.
Getting lower than 6.25 percent fixed 30-year rates is better than the 2023 spike, but they are still high enough that payment shock is real for first-time buyers coming from a lower rent.
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2 Replies
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Why does Candace Owens on a mission to destroy Erika Kirk and some member of Turning point USA, such as the lying Rob McCoy, Chief of Staff Mikey McCoy, and the insinuation of Vice President JD Vance impregnating Erika Kirk eight weeks ago when Charlie Kirk died ten weeks ago. A thorough comprehensive overview on this matter is greatly appreciated.
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I have researched Candace Owens’ motivations and claims regarding this situation. Many of her statements do not have evidence to support them.
Why Candace Owens Is Investigating
Candace Owens’ Main Motivations:
Owens says she is looking into Charlie Kirk’s death because they were friends and she thinks it is reasonable to ask questions when things do not seem right. She says that Turning Point USA leaders and Kirk’s friends acted wrongly, kept important information from others, and gave donors the wrong information.
Her Main Claims:
- Owens says that pro-Israel groups are hiding the truth. She also says Kirk was “publicly executed” as part of a political plan pushed by pro-Israel donors.
- She says Bill Ackman threatened Kirk during a meeting in the Hamptons a few weeks before Kirk’s death. She says the meeting was aggressive, not friendly.
- Owens says Tyler Robinson, the main suspect, is innocent and has been framed. She claims the FBI’s story is fabricated. When someone suggested she should honor Kirk by mourning, Owens told that person to stop commenting and said he was ignoring what Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had said. She has also questioned Mikey McCoy, the Chief of Staff, after Kirk’s death, but made it clear she is not accusing McCoy of killing Charlie Kirk.
False Claims About JD Vance and Pregnancy
These claims are not backed up by proof; rumors about Erika Kirk’s pregnancy started from fake posts made by AI on Facebook and Instagram. No trustworthy sources have confirmed any pregnancy. There is no real proof of a romantic relationship between Erika Kirk and Vice President JD Vance. The rumors started after they hugged at a Turning Point USA event at the University of Mississippi on October 29. Erika Kirk told Megyn Kelly she hoped to become pregnant after her husband’s death because they both wanted four children. Some online sources misunderstood this and spread false pregnancy rumors. Erika said, ‘Whoever is hating on a hug needs a hug themselves.’ She accused Tyler Robinson of killing Charlie Kirk. Official reports describe the investigation, including the arrest and statements from the suspect. Owens disagrees with these reports but has not given proof to support her claims. Ackman has called Owens’ accusations baseless and offensive. Israeli officials and Kirk’s friends, including his pastor, have also publicly denied her claims. Some people online have inquired whether Owens’ claims are for financial gain. Others have said her behavior toward Erika is “weird and disrespectful.” The rumors about pregnancy and an affair with JD Vance are false stories spread by fake AI posts. In short, Candace Owens is investigating because she does not believe the official story about Kirk’s death, but her claims have not been proven.
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