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Mortgage Rates Continue to Surge-Borrowers Facing Points
GCA MORTGAGE FORUMS DAILY NEWS EDITION | WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2026
Mortgage rates are climbing toward 7.5%, leaving homebuyers facing higher payments, expensive points, and a growing affordability crisis.
Mortgage rates are nearing 7.5%, and homebuyers face costly points, rising inflation, and ongoing housing affordability challenges—news as of October 14, 2026.
GCA MORTGAGE FORUMS DAILY NEWS EDITION
October 12–14, 2026 | National Mortgage, Housing, Financial & Economic News
Published by GCA Mortgage Forums News | Powered by Gustan Cho Associates
Breaking News: America’s Housing Market Faces Another Financial Shock
Many homebuyers hoped mortgage rates would finally drop, but the market has brought another unwelcome surprise.
Mortgage rates are approaching 7.5%. Inflation is putting more strain on household budgets, and borrowers often find that advertised lower rates come with thousands of dollars in discount points.
For Americans already struggling with the cost of groceries, gas, insurance, and property taxes, higher mortgage payments add another financial challenge.
MBAA’s report out on Oct 14 showed the average contract rate on a 30-year conventional at 7.50% with points and origination fees at 0.83%. Mortgage applications were down. The takeaway is clear: housing affordability remains one of the biggest financial challenges for American families.
Mortgage Rate Explosion: Why Homebuyers Are Paying Rates close to 7.5% are making it much harder for people to afford homes.g Buying Power.
Mortgage rates have risen sharply in the past few weeks.
Freddie Mac’s October 8 survey showed the average 30-year fixed at 7.40%. Mortgage News Daily had 7.46% circa October 13.
Surveys may track different mortgage products and pricing, but the trend is clear.
Higher rates lower buying power, raise debt-to-income ratios, and sometimes push qualified buyers out of the market.
Consider a $400,000 mortgage over 30 years:
- At 5.875%: approx. $2,366 per month in principal and interest.
- At 7.50%: approx. $2,797 per month in principal and interest.
- Monthly increase: Approximately $431.
- Annual increase: Approximately $5,172.
That’s more than $5,000 in extra mortgage payments each year, not including taxes, homeowners insurance, and other housing expenses.
Discount Points: The Hidden Price Behind Attractive Mortgage Rates
Some buyers discover that to get the advertised rate, they need to pay a large amount upfront. On a $400k mortgage, one point is $4,000.
Two points would cost $8,000.
Points can lower your mortgage rate, but buying them is not always a good financial move.
Borrowers should compare the costs with zero, one, or more discount points to see if the monthly savings are worth the upfront expense.
The main question is how long you need to keep the mortgage before the interest savings outweigh the cost of the points.
Inflation Alarm: Rising Consumer Prices Threaten Mortgage Rate Relief September CPI Hits 3.7%
The BLS reported annual consumer inflation at 3.7% in September 2026.
Consumer prices are up 0.6% in the month, with petrol prices up 9.1%.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was up 2.6% year-to-year.
Higher inflation pushes up Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities, which can keep mortgage rates high.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates?
Persistent inflation has once again raised the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Mortgage rates do not follow the Fed’s short-term policy rate directly. Driven by bond yields, inflation expectations, investor demand, and the MBS markets
Another Fed rate hike could happen, but it’s not guaranteed.
Housing Market Trouble: Home Prices Stay High as Buyers Retreat
More Homes for Sale, but Affordability Remains Weak
The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales in September at an annualized rate of approximately 3.99 million.
The national median existing home sales price came in at $417,500.
Inventory has risen to about 1.6 million homes, giving buyers more options and room to negotiate.
However, more homes for sale does not always mean housing is affordable.
For many, higher mortgage rates cancel out any savings from negotiating a lower purchase price.
Mortgage Applications Fall as Refinancing Opportunities Disappear
The MBA’s October 14 report showed:
- Total mortgage applications were down 2.7% on the previous week.
- Purchase applications dropped 4%.
- Refis were 56% down on the same period a year earlier.
- Adjustable rate mortgages accounted for 10.5% of applications.
This decline is putting more pressure on mortgage companies, real estate professionals, and other businesses tied to housing.
Wall Street on edge: are stocks heading for a major correction?
Inflation Sends Shockwaves Through Financial Markets
Financial markets reacted badly to the stronger inflation readings.
Treasury yields were up, tech stocks and the broader indices all saw some selling pressure.
The 10yr Treasury yield was edging towards 5.3%, which in turn is adding to the pressure on mortgage rates.
Investors are worried about high stock prices, concentrated market gains, inflation, and overall economic uncertainty.
Could the market see a major correction? It’s definitely possible.
However, predicting a guaranteed crash is speculation, not solid financial reporting. At financial preparedness, emergency savings, manageable debt, and diversified investments rather than relying on any kind of dramatic market prediction.
Oil Prices Jump: Another Inflation Threat for American Families
Energy Costs Add Pressure to Household Budgets
Global energy markets remain highly volatile because of ongoing geopolitical tensions and continued supply concerns.
October 14 reports have Brent at $105 a barrel and WTI at $95 a barrel.
Higher energy prices have an impact on petrol, transport, construction, manufacturing, and consumer goods.
For homeowners and buyers, the effects go far beyond just higher gas prices.
When transportation and utility costs rise, there’s less money available for housing payments and savings.
Gold and Silver Market: Investors Face Another Wild Ride
Precious Metals React to Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Gold was at $4,086 an ounce during the October 14 update, and silver was also under significant selling pressure. People often see precious metals as a hedge against inflation, but rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar can push prices down.
Gold and silver prices are very sensitive to geopolitical tensions, central bank moves, inflation, and investor mood.
Precious metals can help diversify a portfolio, but no one can predict their future prices.
Market prices are snapshots at a specific moment, not constantly updated quotes.
America’s Financial Squeeze: Working Families Struggle to Keep Up
Slower Hiring Meets Higher Everyday Expenses
The September employment report showed unemployment at just under 4.2% and payroll employment up by about 29,000.
Hiring is slowing down while many Americans are still struggling with the rising cost of living.
For families living paycheck to paycheck, higher costs for insurance, food, transportation, and housing can quickly strain their budgets.
This can be the difference between qualifying for a mortgage and actually being able to afford it.
It’s possible to qualify for a loan amount, but the monthly payment might still be unaffordable.
Buyers should consider their take-home pay after covering housing, debt, utilities, transportation, childcare, and savings.
Property Tax Pressure: Homeowners Face Rising Bills and State Budget Problems
Property Tax Reform Gains Political Attention
Property tax affordability is a real issue in states like Florida, Oklahoma, and North Carolina.
Various proposals are out there to cap property tax increases or to broaden the scope of homeowner relief.
Meanwhile, some state governments are facing very large projected budget gaps.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office has projected a problem of approximately $18 billion in the state’s budget for FY 2026-27.
NY officials have also issued warnings about very large projected multi-year budget shortfalls.
These projections do not mean the state is insolvent; they just highlight the financial pressure on policymakers.
Homebuyers should remember that property taxes can increase after a reassessment or when ownership changes.
A seller’s current tax bill won’t necessarily reflect the buyer’s future property tax liability.
Mortgage News FAQs: Answers Homebuyers Are Searching For
What are the mortgage rates today (October 14th 2026)?
The most recent MBA weekly survey shows the average 30-year conventional rate at around 7.50%. Of course, the rates will vary from person to person depending on credit, program, down payment, mortgage points, and pricing.
2. Is it worth paying mortgage discount points?
Discount points can be worthwhile if the interest savings achieved as a result are greater than the cost of the points. You need to work out the break-even point and consider how long you intend to keep the loan.
3. Could mortgage rates get to 8%, 9% or 10%?
Higher rates are certainly possible, though there’s no guarantee. Future mortgage rates will be determined by inflation, Treasury yields, the state of the economy and expectations of Federal Reserve policy.
4. Is it now a bad time to buy a house?
Not in any way necessarily. It’s all down to your individual circumstances really: your own financial situation, what the local housing market is like, your job and your ability to afford the payments. You have to be very careful not to go in thinking that you’re going to be able to refinance into a lower rate straight after you’ve closed.
5. Can borrowers qualify for FHA or VA loans with low credit scores?
Yes. FHA guidelines permit eligible borrowers with credit scores of 500–579 to qualify with a minimum 10% down payment. VA does not establish a universal minimum credit score, although individual lenders may impose additional requirements.
6. Will home prices crash in 2027?
Nobody can accurately guarantee a national housing crash. Markets vary by region, employment trends, housing inventory, construction activity, and local demand.
7. Can sellers pay mortgage discount points for buyers?
Yes, subject to the applicable loan program’s seller-contribution limits and other requirements. Negotiating seller concessions may help buyers reduce their interest rate or cover eligible closing costs.
Final Thoughts: America’s Housing Market Faces a Critical Test
With mortgage rates near 7.5%, ongoing inflation, high home prices, and rising household costs, it’s a tough time for American consumers. Buyers should carefully consider mortgage points, total loan costs, insurance, and property taxes before buying. For those who can afford it, negotiating seller concessions and choosing the right financing can still open up opportunities.
GCA Mortgage Forums Daily News is dedicated to sharing stories that matter to homeowners, homebuyers, renters, investors, and mortgage professionals across America. Join the conversation at http://www.gcaforums.com, become a member, and share your questions and experiences.
GCA MORTGAGE FORUMS DAILY NEWS — America’s Housing Market. America’s Financial Future. Real News That Matters.
Editorial Note: This report covers developments from October 12–14, 2026. Financial market quotations reflect specific reporting times and may change. Mortgage rates and eligibility vary by borrower. Information is educational and does not constitute an individual loan offer or investment recommendation.
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4 Replies
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What is driving mortgage rates in the past few weeks? I heard there are no PAR rates. If you are under a 700 credit score, you get mortgage rates in the 7s and pay discount points. Is this true? Where are mortgage rates headed? Will we have another financial crash like the one in 2008.
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Mortgage Rates Surge in October 2026: Are 7% Rates the New Normal, and Is Another 2008 Housing Crash Coming?
GCA MORTGAGE FORUMS DAILY NEWS | October 15, 2026
Powered by Gustan Cho Associates
Meta Description: Why are mortgage rates rising? Explore 7% mortgage rates, discount points, 2027 forecasts, and whether another 2008 housing crash is coming.
Mortgage Rates Are Rising, and Homebuyers Are Feeling the Pressure
Mortgage rates have risen sharply in recent weeks, making it tougher for homebuyers, homeowners, and mortgage professionals. People who saw rates around 6% before are now getting quotes near 7%, sometimes with expensive discount points.
Mortgage loan originators say pricing is getting harder. Borrowers with credit scores under 700 may face higher rates, more upfront costs, or both.
Key questions include whether good-par mortgage rates are gone, what will happen to rates in 2027, and whether today’s housing market could see another crisis like 2008.
Quick Answer: Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?
Mortgage rates are rising due to inflation concerns, higher Treasury yields, shifts in mortgage-backed securities prices, and uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy.
Borrowers with credit scores below 700 may see rates above 7% and significant discount points, especially with conventional loans. However, zero-point mortgage options are still available in many places.
Rates might stay high through 2027, but predictions of 9% to 10% mortgage rates are mostly guesses and not widely accepted.
Although mortgage delinquencies and affordability are real concerns, another 2008-style financial collapse is not certain.
Inflation is one of the biggest factors driving changes in mortgage rates. When investors expect prices to keep rising, they want higher returns on long-term bonds.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is particularly important because mortgage-backed securities compete with Treasury bonds for investment capital.
When Treasury yields go up, mortgage rates usually rise too. Mortgage-backed securities can also cost more if investors want an extra premium for risk and market uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Policy and Mortgage-Backed Securities
The Federal Reserve does not set 30-year mortgage interest rates directly. But its monetary policies affect inflation expectations and long-term bond markets.
Even if the Federal Reserve lowers short-term interest rates, mortgage rates may remain elevated if investors continue worrying about inflation.
Changes in mortgage-backed securities prices help explain why wholesale mortgage rates can worsen quickly during periods of market instability.
In short, many financial market forces affect mortgage rates, not just changes in Federal Reserve rates.
Have Par Mortgage Rates Disappeared?
Many mortgage professionals are worried that attractive par mortgage rates seem to be disappearing.
A par mortgage rate is usually the interest rate offered without discount points or lender credits, before other fees and costs are added.
In unstable markets, lenders often offer lower interest rates only if borrowers pay large discount points. A lender might offer 7.75% without points but ask for two discount points to get a lower rate.
On a $400,000 mortgage, two discount points cost $8,000.
But not all lenders have removed zero-point options. A mortgage broker can compare lenders to find available pricing options.
A zero-point mortgage still comes with closing costs. Other settlement fees may apply.
Are Borrowers Below 700 Credit Scores Paying Rates in the 7s?
Yes, many borrowers with credit scores under 700 may get mortgage rates around 7%, sometimes with extra discount points.
However, there is no rule requiring every borrower with a score below 700 to pay points.
Conventional Mortgage Pricing
Conventional mortgage prices can be affected by loan-level price changes from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Credit score, down payment, loan-to-value ratio, occupancy, and other loan details can change borrowing costs.
For example, a borrower with a 680 credit score and 5% down may get worse pricing than someone with a 760 score and 20% down.
FHA and VA Mortgage Alternatives
FHA and VA loans use different pricing and eligibility structures.
FHA loans may offer good rates for borrowers with lower credit scores, but mortgage insurance increases the total cost.
VA loans may be a good option for eligible veterans. The VA does not set a universal minimum credit score, but individual lenders may have their own rules.
The best loan program depends on your whole financial situation, not just your credit score.
Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed in 2027?
It’s hard to predict mortgage rates because inflation, jobs, bond yields, and monetary policy can all change suddenly.
There are three possible scenarios to consider.
Mortgage Rates Remain Above 7%
If inflation remains high and Treasury yields stay elevated, mortgage rates could remain above 7% for a long time.
This would make homes less affordable, refinancing harder, and discourage some people from buying.
Mortgage Rates Rise Toward 8% or Higher.
Rates could reach 8% or higher if inflation accelerates or bond market conditions worsen.
Mortgage rates near 9% to 10% would probably need a stronger mix of inflation, higher long-term yields, or financial market problems.
There’s no solid evidence that 9% to 10% mortgage rates in 2027 are a sure thing.
Mortgage Rates Decline
Mortgage rates could go down if inflation slows, Treasury yields drop, and mortgage-backed securities prices get better.
A recession could help rates fall, but job losses and stricter credit rules could make it harder to get a mortgage.
Homebuyers should not rely on refinancing later to make today’s mortgage easier to afford.
Could Another 2008 Housing Crash Happen?
It’s normal to worry about another housing crash. Home prices are still high in many places, mortgage rates have risen, and some borrowers are having money problems.
But today’s mortgage market is very different from what it was before the 2008 financial crisis.
Why the 2008 Housing Market Collapsed
The 2008 crisis involved risky mortgage products, inadequate underwriting, excessive borrowing, falling property values, and extensive financial leverage.
As homeowners defaulted, mortgage-backed securities lost value, creating major losses throughout the financial system.
The collapse eventually affected banks, employment, consumer spending, and the wider economy.
Why Today’s Housing Market Is Different
Mortgage approval rules are usually stricter today.
Traditional loan programs usually require proof of income, verified assets, and checking if borrowers can repay. Many homeowners also have a lot of home equity built up and fixed-rate mortgages with much lower interest rates than today.
These factors offer important protections that were missing in some parts of the housing market before 2008.
Still, stricter approval rules don’t mean home prices can’t drop or that borrowers won’t have money problems.
Mortgage Delinquencies Are a Warning Sign
Mortgage delinquencies are important to watch, especially for borrowers with little savings. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the second-quarter 2026 mortgage default rates were about 11.79% for FHA loans, 4.89% for VA loans, and 2.72% for conventional loans.
These numbers include mortgages that are at least one payment late. They don’t mean all late homeowners are facing foreclosure.
If delinquencies keep rising, we could see more foreclosures, more forced property sales, and falling home prices.
But a nationwide housing collapse would probably also mean higher unemployment, stricter credit, and big losses in homeowners’ home value.
Some housing markets might see big price drops, while others could stay fairly stable.
How Higher Mortgage Rates Change Monthly Payments
Higher mortgage rates make it harder for people to afford homes. Principal and interest would be approximately $2,398.
At 7.50%, the payment increases to approximately $2,797.
At 9.00%, the payment reaches approximately $3,219.
These payments exclude property taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance, and other housing expenses.
The increase from 6.00% to 7.50% amounts to about $399 more per month, or almost $4,800 more per year.
For many households, that increase can determine if a mortgage is affordable.
Frequently Asked Questions About Mortgage Rates and a Housing Crash.
1. Are mortgage rates above 7% in October 2026?
Borrowers may see rates above 7%, depending on their mortgage program, credit scores, lender pricing, and discount points.
2. Are par mortgage rates gone?
No. Zero-point options may still be available, but their interest rates can be much higher than borrowers expect.
3. Does a credit score below 700 automatically require discount points?
No. Credit scores affect pricing, especially for conventional loans, but borrowers with scores below 700 do not always have to pay discount points.
4. Could mortgage rates reach 10% in 2027?
It is possible. It could happen if there is severe inflation or big problems in the bond market, but most experts do not think it is likely.
Not necessarily. Higher borrowing costs can reduce demand, but home values also depend on local supply, job growth, and forced sales. There isn’t enough evidence to say another 2008-style collapse is coming soon. Rising unemployment, more foreclosures, and financial stress would make it more likely.
The mortgage market faces big uncertainty as higher rates, inflation, and affordability problems affect borrowers nationwide. Rates above 7% make buying a home much more expensive, especially for those with lower credit scores. Still, par mortgage rates are available in some places, and another 2008-style crisis is not certain. Borrowers should focus on affordable payments, fair closing costs, and financial security instead of guessing future rate changes. Gustan Cho Associates can help homebuyers and homeowners compare different mortgage programs, including conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, and eligible non-QM options. Looking at interest rates, discount points, mortgage insurance, and total costs can help you find a loan that fits your budget. No matter what happens to rates in 2027, the most important thing is to choose a mortgage that works for you right now.
Editorial note: The historical market figures and future-oriented claims were retained from the preceding draft and have not been independently verified for this revision. Verify them against dated primary sources before publishing.
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This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by admin.
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This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by
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Mortgage rates have shot up in recent weeks, and people with lower scores are being hit with significantly higher rates. It’s wrong to say there are no PAR rates or that anyone with a score below 700 will always get rates in the 7% range with points. Your rate will be determined by the type of loan, your LTV, whether you live in the property, the loan amount and how each lender is pricing their loans.
What is driving rates
The main reason mortgage rates are rising is the bond market, especially the 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates usually follow. The 10-year yield has increased because of ongoing inflation, higher oil prices, global uncertainty, and worries about the federal deficit and debt. Fannie Mae expects the 10-year yield to stay at 5.3% through 2027.
The Fed raised rates in Sep to 3.75%- 4.00% (its first hike in over 3 years). Given higher inflation, expectations for another hike are very strong. That hike doesn’t directly determine the 30-year mortgage rate, but it will have an effect in terms of the short end of the curve, inflation expectations, and the risk premium that investors are demanding. The spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields has also widened. Investors are demanding a higher return on their mortgage-backed securities, so even if the Treasuries don’t move, the mortgage rates can still go up. Recent reports from HousingWire cited a mortgage-to-Treasury spread of about 2.12%.
Where rates are now
Right now, the majority of 30-year fixed conventional mortgage rates are in the mid-7% range. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed 7.40% for the week of Oct 8 (up from 7.28% the previous week). MBA’s data showed 7.50% for the week ending Oct 9, which is the highest since November 2023.
Rates have gone up by nearly a full percentage point since June, and around half of this year’s increase occurred in the six weeks following late August. Currently, FHA and VA loans are generally priced lower than conventional 30-year loans, while jumbo loans are priced higher. Is the ‘no PAR rate’ claim genuine?
Partly true, partly not. A genuine PAR rate (zero points, zero lender credit) is still achievable on some loans, just not the norm in the current market. It’s not really available or attractive to many borrowers as the base pricing, LLPAs, and lender margins have all become less favorable on the higher-risk loans.
For conventional loans, the Fannie Mae LLPA matrix is going to make big adjustments based on your credit score and your loan-to-value. A score in the 680-699 range with an LTV of 90.01%-95% will get you a 1.125% LLPA, a score in the 640-659 range at the same LTV will get you a 2.500% LLPA. Those changes can quite rapidly turn a no-cost quote into a quote where you have to pay points to get a rate that’s competitive. The real story for people with scores below 700 is that you can absolutely still get a mortgage and in some cases the FHA or VA rates will actually be lower than the conventional rates. It’s just that you’re much less likely to find a true zero point conventional rate, particularly at higher LTVs. You can use discount points to bring your rate down, but they aren’t always necessary. The notion that if you have a score below 700 you’re going to be looking at rates in the 7% range plus points is pretty much true at the moment, though not always. One October pricing table, for instance, showed average 30-year conventional rates of 7.87% at a 680 score, 7.96% at a 660 score, 8.05% at a 640 score, and 7.78% at a 700 score. The best rates in that table were all starting at 760 or above. Mark.
FHA loans can be a major differentiator. The latest market quotes were FHA 30yr at 6.866%, VA at 6.951%, and conventional 30yr fixed at 7.388%. Of course, the FHA has mortgage insurance, and the VA has a funding fee (unless you’re exempt).
If you were talking to a client, you might say, “you can get a loan with a score below 700, it just will affect the numbers. On a conventional loan, you’ll be looking at a lot bigger LLPA adjustments and may well be asked to pay points. FHA and VA loans could potentially offer you a lower rate, but you need to look at the full monthly payment including mortgage insurance or the funding fee.”
Where rates are headed
In the very near term, it doesn’t look great for borrowers who are hoping for lower rates any time soon. Fannie Mae’s October forecast now has the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.4% for Q4 2026 and 7.5% in 2027. That’s a significant move up from their earlier forecast of 6.8% for Q4 2026 and 6.7% for 2027.
This is all based on the assumption that inflation stays high, energy prices stay high, the federal government continues to run huge deficits, and the 10yr yield stays at around 5.3%. If inflation comes down or the 10yr yield comes down, then rates could fall more rapidly than we’re currently expecting. As it stands, though, the majority of people think rates will remain above 7% into 2027. 2008-style crash?
A repeat of 2008 doesn’t seem likely. The 2008 crisis was the result of bad underwriting, minimal documentation, a huge number of subprime loans, excessive leverage, and a huge number of homes for sale. The lending rules are far more stringent now, with income and assets properly checked. Homeowners have significantly more equity, and there are far fewer homes for sale.
Still, to say there won’t be a repeat of 2008 is not to say there isn’t risk. Affordability is under pressure and purchase activity has been very weak for six weeks running. A recession, a major credit event or further rises in Treasury yields could all put pressure on prices in some markets. The systems that turned a housing downturn into a global financial crisis are very different today, though.
In short, rates are high due to inflation, oil prices, the federal deficit, Fed policy, and wider mortgage spreads all of which are pushing yields up. Those with scores below 700 are paying more, but in many cases the best option is to look at an FHA or VA loan, manage your LTV, or consider a temporary buy down rather than just go with the high rates and points.
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10 year Treasuries tanked today which is great news for mortgage rates. Mortgage rates normally follow 10-year treasury Yields. Rates have skyrocketed the past three weeks where even mortgage rates on government backed loans are 7% plus with discount points.
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