GCA Forums Update — National LIVE (Saturday, November 15 2025)

This is live streaming data, so there are no charts or graphs, and no weekend updates from the bourse. The data below is from previous updates, not live data. U.S. Markets LIVE Updates and Reviews

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq – Friday, November 14 closing values

• Dow Jones closed at 47,147.48 (down 309.74, a decrease of 0.70%).
• For the entire week, there was a 0.3% increase.
• S&P 500 closed at 6,734.11 (decreased 0.1%).
• Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,900.59 (up 0.1%).

Tech was able to stabilize after it was severely sold down the previous day. There is an ongoing debate in the market regarding the durability of earnings from AI capex.

LIVE Borrowing Costs, Interest Rates, Treasury Yields, and Mortgage Rates

• 10-Year Treasury Yield (Friday, November 14): 4.14%.
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-yr FRM 6.24%, 15-yr FRM 5.49% (week of November 13).
• Conclusion on the mortgage market: The 10-year mortgage pricing is currently around 4.1%, maintaining mortgage pricing in the mid-6% range, as a move in the treasury data is expected next week.
• Live Global Macroeconomics: GDP, Prices, Jobs, and the Unemployment Rate.
• GDP: The most recent report on GDP is Q2 2025 (real GDP: 3.8%, with the next quarter’s estimates yet to be determined.
• Inflation (CPI): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers is expected to rise 0.3% from August 2025 to September 2025 and 3% from September 2024 to September 2025.
• Labor Market: As of the last reading from the BLS, there were 4.3% of people unemployed and 22,000 noncompleted non-affected jobs.
• The government shutdown impacted the data, and the estimate from the Chicago Fed predicts that the October 2023 unemployment rate is approximately 4.4% (rounded to the nearest whole number), based on data from August.
• Why some October data are missing: The 43-day federal shutdown meant people we employed had not been working for 43 days.
• Due to this, we were unable to provide people with the data we would normally provide them.
• We were able to get some data from the people we employed.

LIVE Housing and Mortgage Market Update:

• Home Sales: Existing home sales are scheduled to be released on November 20, 2023, and we estimate that they will be approximately 4.06 million, a rise of about 415,200 (which is a record for sales of any home in September 2023) and 1.5% higher than the preceding month.
• Starts: The most recent report available is from August 2023, which indicates approximately 1.307 million SAAR for apartments and 890 single-family units.
• Forecasts: Zillow projects around 4.07 million existing homes, meaning the NAR could reach around 2025, and also indicates that there would be an average 30-year mortgage of about 6%.
• Bottom line for buyers/sellers: There is a sense of demand, with rates higher than they would normally be.
• However, the prices mean that homes are not particularly affordable.

Auto Sector Live Events, Flexible Sector of Prices, Repossessions, and Dealer Stress:

• Auto Delinquency: There are approximately 2.05% of 60-day or longer delinquencies,
• Subprimes are about 7.6%.
• The trend is that there are far more delinquencies than there were last year.
• However, the number of severely delinquent accounts is stable or even decreasing.
• Subprime snapshot (Fitch via trade press): 6.65% subprime delinquency in October (increase vs. Sept).
• Repos Trend: Cox indicates repossession rates have returned to 2019 levels in 2025.
• Car Prices: Average new car $48,841 in 2025.
• Still near record levels.
• CarMax: Multiple opp headwinds in 2025.
• Management changes announced on November 6 and misses to prior quarters have put pressure on the stock.
• Not losing billions in net income based on recent filings and estimates (FY2025 net income $0.5B).

Summary

Most stress in the auto credit sector is in the subprime segment, and the results for dealers are mixed; prices are higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Policy Consideration-50-Year Mortgage: What It Means

• Current Position: President Trump brought up the idea of 50-year mortgages.
• Leadership at the FHFA is considering possibilities, but no official program is in place.
• There is a sharp divergence between analysts and industry associations.
• Payment Implications: Independent studies estimate that monthly home payments for a median-priced home would be $100–$160 less than a 30-year mortgage.
• However, the interest would be higher, it would take longer to build equity, and the debt would be longer.
• Major Limitations: Dodd-Frank/ATR-QM rules cap terms at 40 years for QM, so federally backed loans would likely require changes to the rules.

(Notes on the analysis describe the legal obstacles.)

Perspective on GCA from buyers and homeowners:

• Lower monthly payments help increase qualification and DTI levels, but interest costs rise sharply, and equity builds at a slower rate.
• The refinancing and exit timeline strategies become imperative.

MONEY WATCH: The Stimulus / Tariff Dividend-$2,000-What’s True?

• Proposal: The administration has discussed a $2,000 “tariff dividend” targeted at middle- and lower-income earners.
• Speculation on income cutoff points has occurred.
• No checks are being cut.
• A finalized congressional plan exists.

WASHINGTON

• The Deal What It Did, and Did Not, Accomplish: The Shutdown Ends.
• Shutdown Period: 43 days, closing on the official November 12 with President Trump’s signature on the funding bill.
• The government is funded through January 30.
• Back pay is reinstated.
• What the Democrats Obtained: The bill is framed by GOP leaders as a clean CR with no major policy wins on the Democrats’ side (e.g., no extension of ACA subsidies).
• Coverage from several sources confirms that the Democrats omitted the extension from the deal.

ELECTION WATCH New York City’s New Mayor-Elect and What Democratic Socialists Stand For

• Result: Zohran Mamdani (Democratic Socialist) won the mayoral election in New York City (NYC) on November 4 and will take office on January 1, 2026.
• Reported vote share around 50%.
• Platform: Rent freezes, free bus fare, higher taxes on the rich, childcare for the public/people, and groceries owned by the city are all crucial for his career.
• Democratic Socialist: Socially and politically, a democracy leaning toward people having and controlling a lot of the centrally managed resources and the country having a lot more welfare.
• However, in practical terms, the US typically adheres to the European social democracy definition rather than full state control.

Note:

• We have found no verified public policy of Mamdani proposing the elimination of all private ownership.
• He promotes public control of social services and rent, as well as progressive taxation, but this does not involve the elimination of private property, which remains the focus of social policy.

MEDIA & MOVEMENTS: Turning Point USA / Candace Owens / Erika Kirk / VP JD Vance

• The aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s death leaves coverage of TPUSA volatile and contentious.
• Several counterclaims and social posts, most of which are ungrounded and under investigation. (Not endorsing, just highlighting):
• Owens made several claims and statements concerning TPUSA, which TPUSA-aligned and other influential people have disputed.
• Depending on the accuracy of the reports, tabloids and international outlets have disseminated information speculatively, which should be treated as unreliable until there is direct information from law enforcement.

Reports on Erika Kirk’s and Vice President JD Vance’s interactions and public engagement vary in quality, with very little independent verification.

Editor’s note: We are not going to publish any unsubstantiated personal allegations. We will only update with verified information and named sources.

QUICK HITS

• Bitcoin/Gold: Weakening risk assets affected both Bitcoin and Gold.
• A safe both asset bids and weakness in gold.
• Housing into year-end: Projections are calling for a slight improvement in sales, accompanied by a reduction in interest rates.
• Yet, affordability will continue to be a very large barrier.

GCA and Subs Here are the Updates

In today’s public filings and press releases, we have no information on Gustan Cho Associates or its subsidiaries. Additionally, we have not received any updates from you, so we will not be able to incorporate any updates into the presentation. We will immediately provide updates with quotes and internal hyperlinks if you provide bullet updates to us. We have videos, new products, the opening of new branches, significant closings, and funding information.

What Today’s News Means for Borrowers & Buyers-Actions

• Lock/Float: The 10-year rate is approximately 4.1%, with the 30-year FRM at approximately 6.24%.
• If you are within the 30 days and need certainty, consider short-term locks.
• Otherwise, be on the lookout for the data and calendar for rate catalysts.
• YCharts Affordability: Inventory is marginally improving, but the price and DTI pressure are present.
• Identify seller credits, buy-downs, or assumable as options.
• AP News Auto Loans: If you are borderline, you can expect auto underwriting to be tighter than usual, given the rise in subprime delinquencies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxPQvIi2F-0&list=RDNSJxPQvIi2F-0&start_radio=1

GCA Forums News — National LIVE Report (Friday, November 14, 2025)

LIVE markets, mortgage rates, CPI/GDP context, housing impacts, repossessions, and 2025 election updates—including NYC’s mayor-elect—today.

LIVE Stock Market Update: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Friday trading was choppy after Thursday’s selloff. Midday movements included:

• The Dow Jones was fluctuating between a 0.4% and 1.2% decline after an 800-point drop the previous day.
• Intraday reversals helped mitigate some of the losses.
• The S&P 500 was fluctuating between gains and losses, while the Nasdaq was recovering some of its losses after tech stocks declined the previous day.
• The drop yesterday came after the odds of a December Fed rate cut dissipated.
• Takeaway: Volatility is elevated as traders handicap the Fed’s next move.

Observing the federal funds target rate of 3.75%–4.00% with recent cuts last October 29.

• For 10-Year Treasury bonds, the 4.08%–4.11% range has remained steady throughout the week.
• People expect a 50 -54% chance of December cuts to occur.
• Context: Caution remains regarding recent shutdown data due to irregularity patterns.

For Mortgage Rates And The Market

• Currently, PMMS has 30-year fixed rates at 6.24% and 15-year fixed rates at 5.49%, with both rates increasing for two consecutive weeks.
• According to the Daily Lender, the 30-year fixed rate remains steady in the low to mid-6 % range.
• Mortgage activity has a direct impact, increasing by about 0.6% week to week for the week ending November 7.
• Impact Definition: Though the Shutdown has ended and the FHA/VA/NFIP are functional, the closings finalized during the shutdown should be addressed in sequence.
• Forecast lens: If the 10-year rate stays around 4.0-4.2%, rate relief into the high 5s/low 6s is expected, accompanied by softer inflation and a clearer path for the Fed.
• Economics: EX Am GDP, CPI, Inflation, and Jobs Converting To Other States.
• GDP: BEA’s latest official print shows Q2 2025 real GDP +3.8% (annualized); Atlanta Fed GDPNow last showed 4.0% for Q3 (model).
• Inflation calendar and data gaps: The BLS schedule lists the CPI for October 2025, slated for release on November 13, but the shutdown disrupted the collection.
• Politicians have indicated that some reports for October may be incomplete or generated automatically.
• Jobs for the unemployed and employed: With official releases disrupted, a Chicago Fed model pegs October unemployment at 4.35%, unchanged.
• Bottom line: Data visibility remains inconsistent.
• Markets are trading more headlines and Fed speeches than hard prints.
• Auto Stress: Repos, Dealership, and Financing Strain, CarMax.
• Repossessions: Reports indicate a surge in repossessions compared to recent years.
• Some coverage cites levels approaching those of the Great Recession.
• Bankruptcies or closures: Subprime debt automobile lender-dealer Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy this fall.
• Broader sector credit risk has been flagged.
• CarMax (KMX): Stock nosedived after weak quarterly results and a changing of the guard.
• It keeps becoming headlines with litigation.
• Relevance to Mortgages: Rising delinquencies within auto loans have the potential to reduce the levels of DTI and Credit availability for borderline mortgage approvals.

LIVE Metals Watch: Gold Silver Prices

• Gold: Approximately $4,10X–$4,20X/oz midday, dollar movements and rate cut anticipations keep it on a sturdy weekly base.
• Silver: Worth $51/oz at present.

LIVE Election Politics: NYC Mayor-Elect, the Meaning of a Democratic Socialist

• New York City: According to various sources, Zohran Mamdani is projected to be the mayor-elect (general election: November 4, 2025) and will take office on January 1, 2026.
• His key platforms include rent freezes, free bus transit, a higher minimum wage, and increased taxation on the wealthy.

What is a Democratic Socialist?

To be left-oriented is a description of democratic socialism. It seeks a more socially owned economy and democracy, as stated in encyclopedias.

• A shift from capitalism is advocated by the DSA, wherein they want economic democracy and worker control, which will be achieved by democratic means.
• Important note on claims: As of now, there is no credible source describing that the NYC mayor-elect will remove all private property ownership.
• The public part of the platform has rent policies, free bus transit, higher taxes on the wealthy, childcare, and more, and it’s not simply abolishing all private ownership.
• We’ll continue to monitor the official documents of policies and the documents of the transitions.

LIVE Conservative Movement Watch: Turning Point USA / Erika Kirk / Mikey McCoy / VP JD Vance

• Leadership change: On September 10, because of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Erika Kirk became the new CEO & Chair of TPUSA.
• Public statements & media: Kirk has shared emotionally touching statements, and has participated in interviews by media who subsequently published her statements and a photo of her TPUSA event embrace with Vice President JD Vance that went viral. Her moment with the VP has even been framed in emotionally supportive reporting as grief.
• Speculation and online rumors, especially regarding her and the VP’s moment, are rampant.
• Mikey (Michael) McCoy, the TPUSA chief of staff, has engaged in media discussions regarding his coordination with Erika Kirk following the shooting and the next steps for the organization.
• Candace Owens: There are ongoing social media and press accusations, and many claims remain unproven, particularly regarding the most contentious topics.
• Please consider these, especially those that are single-source or speculative, with caution.

Housing & Mortgage Outlook: Affordability, Inventory, and the Fed

• Rates are 6.2-6.3%: Payments are higher, just like origination.
• However, origination is lower than the high levels seen in early 2025.
• The resumption of FHA/VA/NFIP operations should help alleviate the backlog from the shutdown, which has been a primary cause of the delays.
• The NAR reported that as of November 20, 2023, it was selling homes.
• Macro steering wheels: Inflation data and job reports will be available this year.

Quick Reference Numbers (as of November 14, 2025, midday)

• Dow / S&P / Nasdaq: Mixed to lower after Thursday’s plummet.
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.08–4.11%.
• Freddie Mac 30 / 15: 6.24 / 5.49% (week of November 13).
• Gold / Silver: 4,10X – 4,20X / 51 oz.
• GDP (latest official): Q2 +3.8% annualized; GDPNow last 4.0% for Q3 (model).
• Unemployment (model est.): 4.35% for October according to the Chicago Fed model (official data disruption).
• Mortgage Applications (MBA): 0.6% w/w (week ending November 7).

What This Means for Borrowers and Buyers (Actionable)

• Lock vs. float: With the cut odds near 50-50 and 10-year yields sticky at around 4.1%, borrowers within 30-45 days of closing may want to lock.
• For longer timelines, consider monitoring for softer data over late November. (Use along with your loan officer’s pricing.)
• DTI awareness: Auto loans/revolving balances are tightening to capture.
• Pay-down strategies can help to tier lower pricing.

Gustan Cho Associates — Company Updates

• We searched for Gustan Cho Associates and its subsidiaries in today’s public press releases and corporate announcements. We did not find any new items from authoritative wire services.
• If you have unread data updates available for dissemination, provide us with bullet points, and we will compile and design them with our ‘GCA Forums News’ branding, including Call To Actions and internal hyperlinks.
• We will continue scanning and will notice any updates that can be verified and include them in the upcoming LIVE.

Notes Regarding the Quality of the Data (Impacts from Shutdown).

• Due to the extended government shutdown, there are some gaps and/or altered schedules for some of the official series (CPI, jobs).
• When possible, we cited our sources, official calendars, model estimates, or well-regarded media, and provided clarity.
• As agencies stabilize the release of data, we will continue to monitor the information for needed updates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VGjFqT105U&list=RDNS8VGjFqT105U&start_radio=1

• This discussion was modified 7 months ago by  Gustan Cho.

GCA Forums News — National Breaking LIVE Update (Thursday, November 13, 2025) Market Snapshot: LIVE Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, 10-Year Treasury, and Mortgage Rates

• Stocks (Midday CT): Wall Street has taken a tumble while its customers sort through the second tower and rearrange the room around the flip.
• This leads to the opening of the Dow, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decline.
• The tech center is dragging.
• 10-Year Treasury (reference): The recent range is 4.09–4.13%, with market coverage currently pegged at 4.09% and projected to reach 4.13% in the future.

LIVE survey of the Mortgage Rates (national averages)

• 30-yr.fixed 6.34% 15-yr. 5.83% 30-yr FHA 6.03% 30-yr VA 6.05% (MND daily survey: Updated today.
• Freddie Mac’s average is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
• At 6.24% this week, and is expected to increase to 6.27% by the end of the month.

LIVE Interest Rates & Fed Watch

• Bond specialists expect a gradual increase in the 10-year yield to 4.21% over the next year, accompanied by a concurrent decline in short-term yields due to anticipated rate cuts.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that now that the Government is shut, the market is re-examining the data calendar to consider the possibilities of rate cuts.
• Let’s discuss this data further and analyze the numbers in more depth.
• Let’s discuss this data further and analyze the numbers in more depth.

LIVE Housing & Mortgage Market Update

• Mortgage applications increased 0.6% week over week (through November 7), marking a second consecutive week of improvement as some buyers return.
• Existing-home sales (latest available, September):
• Up 1.5% m/m to 4.06M SAAR: Median sales price $415,200 (+2.1% y/y).
• October data is set to be released on November 20.
• Home prices: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index shows slight year-over-year increases, but this growth has now slowed down every month.
• This series is published on a two-month lag.

LIVE Macro Data: GDP, CPI/Inflation, Jobs & Unemployment

• GDP: The most recently published data indicate a Q2 2025 real GDP growth rate of +3.8% (annualized), following revisions of -0.6% for Q1 and -0.6% for Q2.
• Nowcasts for Q3, however, were tracking near 4.0% at the beginning of November.
• Upcoming BEA update pending.
• Inflation: September CPI increased 0.3% m/m: Headline increased approximately 3.0% y/y.
• The October CPI was unfortunately delayed due to the shutdown.
• However, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimates it to be around 3.0% year-over-year.
• Labor Market: The October BLS report has not been released yet.
• However, based on the Chicago Fed’s real-time estimation, it is assumed that unemployment is around 4.3-4.4% for the month.
• The last official BLS estimate for August was 4.3% (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago).

LIVE Auto Credit & Dealer Stress: Repossessions, Bankruptcies, CarMax Watch

• Auto delinquencies: 60-day+ auto delinquency at 3.52%, little change y/y, with some subprime delinquency going down.
• This indicates that analysts anticipate a return to “pre-pandemic-like” stability.
• TransUnion’s Q3 update.
• According to the Cox Automotive 2025 Outlook notes, repo rates have returned to pre-2019 levels, while defaults remain about the same as before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Tricolor, a subprime lender and used car dealer, went bankrupt in October, highlighting the strain on the subprime auto finance sector.
• For Carmax, the drop in management level and competition level, which are lower than market expectations, has driven the stock down.
• Once Commander in Chief Bill Nash spent a few quarters in the well-performing market, Commander Bill Nash was slapped with a few quarters of failed expectations for profit and sales below market expectations for the 3rd Quarter.

LIVE U.S. Political Update: New York City’s New Mayor & Meaning Behind Democratic Socialism with a Tool to Examine

• NYC election: As of November 4, then 45 days away, Mamdani’s position has shifted from the traditional ‘Mayor of New York City’ to the pop culture ‘Mayor of New York City,’ reflecting a broader mindset.
• Now I believe.
• For me, it is level 4 thinking.
• I have all the details for this culture.
• It is level 4, then.
• Off for the rest of Mamdani’s 50.4% and all of the votes he received, which is 50.4%, and all of the votes he received were 50 quotas.
• To clarify, all the quota votes were counted that exceeded 50.4 percent of the votes in the passive enabling dominoes within 45 days.
• All these votes, which were counted, were in favor of Mamdani, exceeding 50.4 percent, and were the quota in passive enabling dominoes for 45 days or beyond.
• All the quota votes exceed 50.4 votes in the enabling dominoes, which are passive for 45 days.
• Important: Statements about the New York City mayor-elect claiming he will eliminate private ownership of real estate are a much more simplified version of the actual platform the mayor is running on.
• So far, the coverage has focused on private property, as well as social housing, and increased taxes for the wealthy.
• Therefore, the blanket abolition of property is also incorrect.
• We will review the official transition documents as they become available for more details.

LIVE TPUSA Watch With Candace Owens, Erika Kirk, Mikey McCoy, and JD Vance Rumors

• Leadership change: Following Kirk’s death in September, Erika Kirk assumed the position of CEO/Chair of Turning Point USA.
• Rumors and fact checks: Rumors about Erika Kirk and JD Vance, the vice president, have circulated on the internet, and fact-checkers have yet to establish any evidence to support the claims.
• The claims made about Air Force Two travel have been proven to be untrue.
• Latest comments: On October 29, Kirk did a TPUSA event in Mississippi, and that is where she venerated JD and Usha Vance for the support they had given her during the sad demise of her husband.
• Her act of veneration became very popular as something unique.
• Listen to some messages and videos where she opens up about the leadership of TPUSA, as she is one of the organization’s leaders.
• She who has been covered by the larger circulation of claims that are, in fact, wrong, and some of them.
• Personnel note: Mikey McCoy, also known as Michael McCoy, the Chief of Staff, has been attending public and television events since the Kirk assassination.

Kirk’s death LIVE Economy & Housing Outlook: What It Means for Borrowers and Buyers

• The bottom line remains achieving higher home equity loan rates, mortgage rates of 6.0 -6.5%, and closing application rates.
• If mortgage rates fall, the winter of 2025 will provide buyers, including those with FHA and VA loans, with the opportunity to take advantage of more favorable rate periods.
• Sales of existing homes are better than their lowest point during the pandemic, available inventory is improving year over year, and over the period from 2020 to 2025, general inflation rates on essential parameters are moderating.

Gustan Cho Associates — LIVE Company Note (November 13, 2025)

• There are no new corporate press releases or wires with information from Gustan Cho Associates so far.
• If there are internal press pieces to circulate, please follow the instructions for inclusion in the GCA Forums, including the use of hyperlinks.
• Markets: Wall Street Journal/Yahoo Finance – Midday coverage on November 13.
• Cover on the shutdown context and sector rotation.
• Mortgage Rates Today: Around 6.0-6.4% for the 30-year fixed.
• 6.0% for FHA/VA (applicable to national averages).
• Lock/decisions are based on the 10-year trajectory and the latest inflation data.

If you need a pre-approval within a day or a review without overlays for FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo, or non-QM DSCR, bank statement, or ITIN loans, please get in touch with Gustan Cho Associates at 800-900-8569 or visit our website. We can assess the current rate/credit cycle, and we consistently close on time, even in emergencies, with a very high success rate.

Editors that are currently live and may be within the confines of a ‘LIVE’ data range for certain estimable and real-time snapshots, which display US government records following the shutdown, as well as projected US office data. We will continue to cite primary sources and will refresh data as soon as it is available.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kN9wluIG3A&list=RDNS_kN9wluIG3A&start_radio=1

LIVE National Breaking NEWS – Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Published by Gustan Cho Associates / GCA Forums – Real-Time Update for USUS Economy, Housing, Mortgages & Politics

Stock Market Surge and All-Time High Records

• The US equity market had a sharp rally today.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 48,254.82, up approximately 0.7%, and set a new record high.
• The S&P 500 rose to 6,850.92, a 0.1% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite declined to 23,406.46, down by about 0.3%.

What’s Fueling The Rally?

• Investors speculated that the federal government shutdown that had weighed on data flows was coming to a resolution.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a major chip manufacturer, buoyed the tech sentiment by forecasting over $100 billion in data-center chip revenues over the next five years.
• Treasury yields fell as the market expected new government data and possible shifts in policy.

Important Insights For Watchers of The Housing and Mortgage Market

The strength of the stock market suggests that risk assets are back in favor.

• The difference in performance between techs and value means rotation, and the imminent reopening means more volatility.
• For the housing and mortgage markets, improved investor sentiment may translate into greater consumer confidence.
• However, be alert for potential inflation and interest rate fluctuations in the near future.

U.S. Macroeconomic Snapshot (Real-Time)

As of November 12, 2025, here’s the economic backdrop snapshot for the country:

GDP & Growth

• Estimates suggest the nominal GDP of the US for 2025 is $30.615 trillion, with an anticipated growth rate of 2.0%.

Inflation & CPI

• Inflation continues to be a problem. Due to the shutdown disruptions, official monthly CPI figures have yet to be released.
• However, some sources suggest that inflation as of June 2025 is at 2.7%.

Unemployment & Jobs

The unemployment rate is currently reported to be 4.3% (as of August 2025).

• The job data is currently incomplete due to disruptions in government data. However, some private sector indicators suggest a downturn in certain areas.

What This Means

• Growth: With a GDP growth rate of 2% and inflation exceeding 2.5%, the economy is currently in a reasonable growth posture, neither overheating nor collapsing.
• Inflation: Although it has not gotten out of control, inflation surpassing the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone implies there is no assurance of rate cuts.
• Jobs: From a relatively tight 4.3% unemployment rate, the unavailable data stream raises suspicions about concealed weaknesses.
• For the housing and mortgage environment, the combination of moderate growth and stubborn inflation suggests that interest rates, and consequently mortgage rates, may remain elevated.

Update on Housing & Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates

• Although specific daily national averages have been delayed due to data gaps, mortgage rates remain high compared to historical standards.
• Mortgage rate expectations are that 30-year fixed rates range in the high 6% to low 7% bracket due to inflation and long-term bond yields.
• With Treasury yields dipping marginally today, there may be room for mortgage rates to drop.
• However, a substantial decline is unlikely to occur until inflation and job data stabilize.

Housing Market Conditions

The housing market encounters unique challenges:

• High mortgage interest rates are a deterrent to some, therefore reducing accessibility.
• Accessibility continues to remain a barrier for first-home buyers, despite persistent confinement.
• Demand may worsen in the upcoming months due to the economy not operating at full potential.

Projection and Expectations

Here is what we can expect for the year 2026:

• A 2%-4% increase in property prices nationally rather than the double digits of the recent past.
• A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.5% to 7.5% should be fine if inflation does not fall significantly.
• Aside from the above, the tighter geography regions, the higher the costs, and the looser geography regions should have more relaxed opportunities.

Warning: Auto Sector and Repossessions

The auto industry is on the brink of crisis. While comprehensive nationwide figures are scarce, the prominent indicators are:

• As more people become indebted, the number of repos also increases.
• Bankrupt dealerships also increase, revealing a lack of interest in purchasing.
• Publicly traded auto retailers are also losing, for instance, CarMax is experiencing a decline in inventory, leading to massive losses.
• This reveals prospective losses in the subprime auto loans and may also deteriorate the consumer credit landscapes.
• However, these are crucial for mortgage originations and real estate financing.

Networks: Mayor-Elect Zooman Mamdani and the Impacts on the Country

The Success of Mamdani

• As of November 4, Zooman Mamdani was confirmed as the newly elected mayor of New York City.
• His agenda encompasses affordable housing, rent stabilization, and progressive reforms.
• He indicated that he plans to reach out to Donald Trump and the White House.
• The Significance of the Situation from the Trump Administration.
• Mamdani’s move is a cause of concern to business and conservatives on the right, making it on the list of “first socialist” policies to hit a major U.S. City.
• For the Trump Administration and the broader US market, it is a sign that large cities may adopt more stringent policies, which could significantly deter investors in the real estate and housing markets.
• All of these trends combined will affect Mamdani’s agenda, from which regional real estate investors will greatly benefit.

What To Watch

• Will Mamdani propose broad tax hikes on high-income earners and real-estate owners?
• Will the administration (Trump or otherwise) respond with federal housing-policy shifts, or will there be friction between federal and city governance?
• For mortgage originators and property investors, NYC may become a micro-cosm: tighter regulation, slower rental increases, and more supply-side risk.

Conservative Movement & Turning Point USA Update

Key commentary from Candace Owen and others.

• Recent statements from Candace Owens highlight internal organizational changes within Turning Point USA.
• She addressed comments about Erika Kirk and the newly appointed Mikey McCoy.
• At the same time, Erika Kirk publicly referred to McCoy as “the amazing Mikey McCoy” and voiced her admiration for J.D. Vance.
• These public endorsements signal a shift toward younger, more media-savvy conservative activists.
• They may reflect a recalibration of messaging ahead of the 2026-2028 elections.

Why This Matters For Finance & Real Estate

• Political activism may drive legislative focus on deregulation, housing supply laws, and biases in owner-occupied housing.
• This can influence mortgage policy and investor sentiment.
• GCA has been making an effort to pay more attention to borrowers with alternative income sources and self-employed applicants.
• This presents an opportunity to tap into a new market for these types of borrowers.

GCA Forums & Gustan Cho Associates Livestream Update

Business Achievements

Gustan Cho Associates and their subsidiaries have been successfully scaling their digital assets:

• Their main website and community forum have recently addressed a significant number of crawl errors and are currently working on index migration.
• The amount of crawl errors has decreased by over 28% in the last 30 days.
• The new set of animated videos, entitled What to Do

When Your Credit Dips and 2026 Housing Forecast:

• What Every Investor Needs to Understand is being launched this week.
• They are always dynamically anchored with robust data on the Dow, CPI, and unemployment, and with cross-channel distribution on YouTube, Pinterest, and Embedded Forums.
• Gustan Cho Associates has also been working on lead flow and has seen an increase in the number of Apply Now clicks.
• Pages for bank statement mortgages have seen conversion rates increase from 5.8% last quarter to 6.4% this quarter.
• This was largely due to changes in the interface and user experience.

What to Watch at GCA

• Records indicate Alternative Income Verification v2 is in the process of being rolled out.
• Self-employed borrowers can now utilize the modules built into iincome-earning FAQs, the passive iincome-earning matrices, and otherEO-abundant selself-employed borrowerontent as seself-guidance tools
• The GCA domain of gustanchoassociates.com is being migrated to gcaforums.com as part of the first phase of a convergence strategy.
• This is to be completed by the end of 2025, as it is projected to increase authority and visibility.
• The speed at which GCA adds real-time content and the way it integrates with a community forum are primary examples of building authority and capturing leads in the mortgage and real estate investing domains.

Market Risks & HeadwindsInflation & Rate Risks

• The loan and housing markets continue to face the most significant headwinds from persistent and elevated inflation and interest rates.
• If inflation does not dissipate, the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a high policy rate, which means the mortgage rates will be exceptionally high.

Housing Affordability & Regional Stress

• The increase in inflation, coupled with high mortgage rates and elevated home prices, means that affordability is stretched.
• The highest-risk markets are the New York City high-cost metro area (especially under the new mayoral agenda), the San Francisco Bay Area, and Los Angeles.
• For investors, markets with softer pricing and easing supply may present advantageous entry points.

Auto loans and Consumer Debt

• There is an increasing risk that consumer debt overall, including mortgage performance and default risk for certain cohorts.
• Especially, subprime auto-loan customers will suffer knock-on effects due to the increase in auto repossession and credit stress among borrowers.

Bottom Line & Key Points

• The stock market remains buoyant at record highs due to the anticipated end of the shutdown and positive tech earnings, although the underlying data gaps (jobs, inflation) surprise me.
• The US economy is experiencing stable but slowing growth, with the economy growing at an estimated rate of 2 percent, characterized by persistent inflation and low unemployment, but with an uncertain flow of available jobs.
• Elevated rates are a significant headwind for the housing and mortgage markets.
• Stretching affordability and regional policy changes (such as those in New York City) are also important policies.
• Rates are expected to grow moderately (2–4 percent) with prices remaining in the high 6% to low 7% region.
• The increase in auto-credit stress and rising repossessions serves as a warning sign for the health of consumer debt.
• While the policy changes signaled by Mamdani in New York City and the conservative movement’s new direction indicate shifts in housing, credit, and real-estate policy, the movement as a whole remains conservative.
• The emphasis on real-time data capture, alternative income verification, and enhanced digital lead funnels is valuable for GCA Forums and Gustan Cho Associates in this market.

Call to Action to Investors and Borrowers:

• Suppose you have a mortgage or an investment property and need to speak with a loan officer now.
• In that case, it is essential to discuss loan strategies, stress debt service, and consider local policy risk.
• At GCA, we continually improve our content and tools, encouraging people to join our forum to engage with their peers.

Note: Some data feeds, such as the Consumer Price Index or the complete jobs report, are still pending due to the government shutdown. All data is current as of November 12, 2025, and sourced from the most up-to-date available information.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFJqo9cgOKo

LIVE National Housing, Mortgage, and Economic News – Tuesday, November 11, 2025

• GCA Forums News is tracking LIVE markets and housing headlines on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, as Wall Street digests softer labor data, a still-unresolved government shutdown, and the Trump White House’s controversial 50-year mortgage proposal.
• Immigration enforcement crackdowns in sanctuary cities like Chicago are drawing international scrutiny.
• At the same time, the political media swarm around Erika Kirk, JD Vance, and the ongoing investigation into Charlie Kirk’s assassination shows no sign of slowing.

Below is a comprehensive, SEO-optimized national update for GCA Forums readers.

LIVE STOCK MARKET UPDATE: DOW JONES & S&P 500 NUMBERS TODAY

As of late morning Eastern time, U.S. stocks are mixed but holding near record territory:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading around 47,500, up roughly 0.3% on the day, after closing at 47,368.63 on Monday.
• The S&P 500 index (US500) is hovering near 6,820–6,830, essentially flat after Monday’s record close near the same level.
• The Nasdaq Composite is consolidating after Monday’s close around 23,527, following a strong run in big-cap tech.
• Traders are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, which last ranged from 4.1% to 4.12% as of November 10, remaining the key driver of equity valuations and live mortgage rates.

LIVE ECONOMIC DATA: GDP, INFLATION, AND RECESSION RISKS

Even with the federal government shutdown delaying some official reports, the latest available data show:

• Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025, the strongest quarterly performance since 2023.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDP-Now model is currently tracking Q3 2025 growth around 4.0% (estimate as of November 6).
• Inflation (CPI) for September 2025 rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, with core inflation also running near 3%.
• The OECD recently revised its outlook for U.S. growth in 2025 to approximately 1.8% for the full year, warning that higher tariffs and a softer labor market could slow the economy, even as the Fed has room for additional rate cuts.

LIVE JOBS & UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS

Because of the ongoing federal government shutdown, the official monthly jobs report has been postponed. However, several independent indicators still give a live snapshot of the labor market:

• The Chicago Fed’s real-time unemployment estimate pegs the October 2025 jobless rate around 4.3–4.4%, up from roughly 4.1% a year earlier.
• Initial jobless claims rose to about 229,000–229,140 for the week ended November 1, reversing most of the prior week’s improvement and signaling a gradual cooling in the job market.
• Alternative “shadow” and private-sector labor reports suggest weak hiring in September, with some estimates showing job gains of only 17,000–60,000 versus much stronger expectations, highlighting the risk of a slow-motion labor downturn beneath the headline GDP strength.

In short, LIVE unemployment and job numbers show a labor market that is still growing but clearly losing momentum, which matters for future Fed rate cuts, LIVE mortgage rates, and housing demand.

LIVE HOUSING AND MORTGAGE NUMBERS

Existing Home Sales and Home Prices

The latest data show a housing market that finally found some breathing room as rates eased from 2024 highs, but affordability remains stretched:

• Existing-home sales climbed 1.5% in September to an annualized 4.06 million units, the fastest pace since February and about 4.1% higher than a year ago.
• The median existing-home price hit a record $415,200 for any September on record, up 2.1% year-over-year.
• The 27th straight month of annual price gains.
• Inventory rose to approximately 1.55 million homes, representing roughly 4.6 months of supply, still below pre-pandemic norms but notably higher than the levels seen in 2023–2024.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index indicates that national home prices are near record highs, with the August 2025 reading at approximately 330 (January 2000 = 100).

LIVE Mortgage Rates Today

For borrowers, the key story remains mid-6% 30-year fixed mortgage rates:

• Freddie Mac’s PMMS: 30-year fixed averaged 6.22% for the week of November 6, 2025.
• Multiple live rate trackers put today’s national average 30-year fixed at around 6.31%, with 15-year fixed loans near 5.7%.
• MBA Weekly Survey (week ending October 31):
  • Conforming 30-year fixed: about 6.31%
  • Jumbo 30-year fixed: about 6.43%
  • FHA 30-year fixed: roughly 6.13%.

Mortgage applications fell 1.9% in the same week, with purchase demand sluggish and refinances still heavily rate-sensitive, despite being higher than a year ago.

For GCA Forums readers, the takeaway is that LIVE mortgage rates are off their 2024 peaks but remain elevated, keeping payments high, especially on starter homes.

LIVE FORECLOSURE NUMBERS AND AUTO REPOSSESSIONS

Foreclosures

The latest Q3 2025 Foreclosure Market Report shows:

• Approximately 101,513 U.S. properties had a foreclosure filing (default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions) in the third quarter of 2025.
• Up 17% year-over-year and slightly higher than Q2.
• In September 2025 alone, 23,761 properties initiated the foreclosure process, a 20% increase from the same period the previous year, while 3,780 properties were repossessed by lenders, representing a 44% annual rise.

This confirms that live foreclosure activity is increasing, particularly in markets affected by job losses, inflation, and high housing costs.

Auto Repossession Wave

The auto credit crunch is also intensifying:

• Overall, 60-day-plus auto-loan delinquencies hit 1.38% in Q1 2025, surpassing the Great Recession peak.
• Subprime delinquencies surged to approximately 6.6%, marking an all-time high in records dating back to 1994.
• One national analysis estimates that over 7.5 million auto repossession assignments have occurred so far in 2025, with a possible record of 10.5 million by year-end if current trends continue.

Together, rising foreclosures and surging auto repossessions signal mounting stress on lower-income and subprime borrowers, even as headline GDP appears solid.

LIVE GOLD AND SILVER PRICES PER OUNCE

Safe-haven demand remains intense:

• Gold is trading around $4,100–$4,120 per ounce today.
• One live snapshot from late morning shows about $4,108/oz, up roughly $19 from yesterday at the same time.
• Silver is currently priced at $51.14 per ounce, representing a nearly 1% increase on the day.
• Gold’s rally is being fueled by expectations of additional Fed rate cuts, concerns about the prolonged government shutdown, and heightened geopolitical and domestic political risks.

ICE, BORDER PATROL, AND SANCTUARY CITIES: CHICAGO AT THE CENTER OF THE STORM

Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago and the Midwest

Immigration enforcement has moved aggressively into sanctuary jurisdictions in 2025, with Chicago front and center:

• In September, DHS announced “Operation Midway Blitz,” a large-scale Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operation targeting “criminal illegal aliens” in Chicago, Illinois, and surrounding areas, with continued activity into the fall despite the federal shutdown.
• A recent analysis estimates that roughly 340,000 deportations will occur in FY 2025, with interior removals now outnumbering border removals for the first time since 2014, underscoring a shift toward enforcement inside the U.S. rather than just at the border.

The Justice Department also published an updated list of sanctuary jurisdictions this summer, warning that federal funding could be tied to cooperation with ICE.

Human-Rights Backlash and Legal Pushback

These operations have sparked a major civil-rights and political backlash:

• Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson recently appealed to the U.N. Human Rights Council, asking it to investigate what he called “abusive” tactics in Operation Midway Blitz.
• Citing raids near schools, alleged use of chemical agents, and tactics staged for media effect.
• The Brennan Center for Justice warns that the crackdown is impacting not only immigrants but also activists and protestors, urging Chicago and Illinois officials to use sanctuary protections to limit cooperation with federal enforcement.
• In one widely shared incident report from suburban Cicero, Illinois, a family alleges ICE agents pepper-sprayed them and their one-year-old despite being U.S. citizens.
• An episode that DHS has denied but which is now at the center of lawsuits and public outrage.
• Across the country, reporting from Los Angeles and other cities has documented ICE detaining U.S. citizens, shortening agent training, and using tactics that critics say are both dangerous and error-prone.

For GCA Forums readers in Chicago and other sanctuary cities, this LIVE enforcement environment has real-world consequences: fear in immigrant communities, legal uncertainty for mixed-status families, and potential disruptions to income and employment that can directly affect mortgage qualification, refinancing, and housing stability.

POLITICAL MEDIA FIRESTORM: ERIKA KIRK, JD VANCE & THE CHARLIE KIRK INVESTIGATIONThe Viral Hug and Unsubstantiated Affair Rumors

The political world and social media have zeroed in on Erika Kirk, widow of slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and Vice President JD Vance:

• At an October 29 Turning Point USA event at the University of Mississippi, Kirk—who recently took over as CEO of TPUSA—shared a long, emotional hug with Vance on stage.
• The video shows her hand in his hair as he leans in, an image that went instantly viral.
• Commentators and social media users accused the pair of being “too intimate,” and affair rumors spread widely across platforms.

However, fact-checkers and reputable outlets have found no evidence that those rumors are true:

• A Snopes-linked analysis and follow-up coverage emphasize that there is no credible evidence of a romantic relationship between Erika Kirk and JD Vance.
• The claims remain unsubstantiated speculation based on a single viral clip.
• A professional lip reader’s breakdown of the exchange suggests Erika initially expressed discomfort (“I can’t do this”). Vance responded with words of support, reinforcing the emotional, rather than romantic, nature of the moment.

In short, there is a political media controversy—but at this stage, it is driven more by optics and online rumor than by documented facts.

The Ongoing Investigation Into Charlie Kirk’s Assassination

Meanwhile, the investigation into Charlie Kirk’s killing remains a major national story:

• On September 10, 2025, Kirk was shot and killed while speaking at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah, in what officials have called a targeted sniper attack.
• The FBI and local authorities have been releasing surveillance images.
• They are offering a reward for information as they reconstruct the events on the rooftop where the shooter fired.
• Court documents and subsequent reporting describe the incident as a political assassination, drawing intense scrutiny of security procedures at campus events and the broader climate of political violence.

For now, the “Charlie Kirk investigation” refers to law-enforcement efforts to solve his murder, not to any wrongdoing by Kirk himself.

TRUMP’S 50-YEAR MORTGAGE PROPOSAL: LIVE UPDATE & WHAT IT MEANS

The biggest LIVE housing-policy headline of the day is President Donald Trump’s support for a 50-year mortgage:

• Over the weekend and into this week, Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte confirmed they are exploring government-backed 50-year mortgage terms through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a response to the housing affordability crisis.
• Pulte has called it a “complete game changer.”
• Trump downplayed the proposal’s significance in a TV interview, saying it would modestly lower monthly payments but not fundamentally change housing policy.

Independent analyses highlight big trade-offs:

• On a median-priced home (around $415,000), a 50-year mortgage could cut monthly payments by a couple of hundred dollars compared with a 30-year.
• However, it dramatically increases the total interest paid over the life of the loan and slows down equity building.
• Housing economists warn that stretching loan terms without fixing housing supply constraints and zoning barriers could actually push home prices even higher, offsetting payment savings and leaving borrowers with larger, longer-lasting debt loads.
• Importantly, many federal housing statutes and insurance rules currently cap mortgage terms at 30 years; therefore, adopting a 50-year mortgage on a large scale would require significant legislative and regulatory changes.
• This means that it remains a proposal, not an active product, as of today.

For borrowers and lenders, the immediate implications:

• Nothing has changed yet in the underwriting guidelines.
• Your LIVE mortgage options today remain 30-year and 15-year (plus existing niche products).
• If implemented, a 50-year term would lower monthly payments but keep borrowers in debt for a significantly longer period, potentially complicating retirement planning, estate planning, and risk modeling for lenders and investors.
• GCA Forums readers should view this as a developing policy story to monitor closely, especially for its potential impact on FHA, VA, and conventional conforming guidelines in the future.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS FOR GCA FORUMS READERS TODAY

Putting today’s LIVE data and headlines together:

• Markets: Stocks are near record highs, but gains are narrow and heavily dependent on AI and mega-cap tech.
• Meanwhile, the 10-year yield, currently around 4.1%, keeps mortgage rates in the mid-6% range.
• Economy: GDP remains strong for now, but labor indicators and rising delinquencies hint at stress, particularly for lower-income households.
• Housing & Mortgages: Home sales have stabilized and even improved slightly as rates eased. However, prices remain near record highs, inventory is slowly rebuilding, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates, now near 6.2–6.3%, continue to challenge affordability.
• Risk Markers: Foreclosures and auto repossessions are trending up, and gold and silver are surging as investors hedge against policy uncertainty, the shutdown, and political risk.
• Politics & Policy: From Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago to the controversy around Erika Kirk and JD Vance and the Trump 50-year mortgage proposal, politics is deeply intertwined with the economic and housing outlook.
• Shaping enforcement, borrower confidence, and long-term financing structures.

GCA Forums will continue to track LIVE Dow Jones and S&P 500 numbers, LIVE housing and mortgage data, and all developments on Trump’s 50-year mortgage proposal, ICE operations, and the Charlie Kirk investigation to keep borrowers, homeowners, and real-estate investors fully informed.

https://gustancho.com/50-year-mortgage/

gustancho.com

What Trump's 50-Year Mortgage Mean To Homeowners

This guide covers Trump's 50-year mortgage proposal and what it means to homeowners. By putting forward a 50-Year Mortgage, home ownership may become more

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GCA Forums News – Breaking Markets Update (October 29, 2025)

Live Snapshot:

These numbers are captured around late morning US trading time on Wednesday, October 29. These figures are being updated live in the marketplace. We are capturing the information and referencing the best sources available.—

Markets at a Glance (LIVE)

• Gold (spot XAU/USD): Around $4,000/oz, moving up as the Fed’s window approaches.
• Silver (spot XAG/USD): Approximately $48/oz, increased 2-3% over the day.
• US stocks: The Dow is nearing 48,000, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting/approaching all-time highs, with strong gains in large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks.
• US 10-year Treasury yield: Approximately 3.99% around midday. 2-year: around 3.50%.
• Fed watch: Futures indicate 90%+ probability for a 25 bp cut today—announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET.

LIVE Precious Metals — Current Price, Trends, and Summary for Gold and Silver

XAU/USD Gold Price Today

Spot gold is trading at nearly $4,000/oz, having jumped into the Fed’s window and shown sensitivity to underlying dollar movements.

• Context: The movement has built up over the month.
• Today’s uptick follows a recent retreat as the Fed meeting approached.
• Why it’s relevant for borrowers and investors: Real yields declining with mortgage gold increasing suggest the margins conducive to lending/borrowing may achieve an ‘easy’ state.

What Is The Current Price of Silver in USD?

• XAG is currently valued at 48.0/oz.
• The intraday range is 46.8-48.5oz.
• The volatility in macro trades is due to the pairing of rate expectation narratives and the manufacturing/EV rage.
• Movement has expanded recently on anticipation of the dollar’s response to the policy announcement.
• Observing the reaction over the past ten years is crucial, as it remains a pillar of the forecasting system and influences the other courses of gold/silver.

LIVE Stock Market – Fed Data Insets

Snapshot of the Indices

• Dow Jones: Pushing toward 48,000; breadth mixed, but heavyweights are doing the lifting.
• S&P 500 / Nasdaq: AI and semis are leading.

Today’s Single Story

• Nvidia crossed $5 trillion market cap, underscoring 2025’s AI-led tape.
• That momentum is buoying the broader market ahead of the Fed.
• What to watch for at 2:00 p.m. ET: If the Fed cuts and the guidance is dovish, equities would likely extend gains, barring any concerns of marketplace froth, tempo of future cuts, or slower growth guidance.

LIVE Interest Rates – Treasuries, the Fed, and the Odds Around PolicyCurrent Yields on the Treasury

• 10-Year: 3.99% as the decision looms.
• 2-Year: 3.50% (tight policy tenor signaling high cut expectations).

FOMC Decision (Today)

• Market odds: Fed funds futures priced to a 90–98% probability of a 25 bp cut in the target band to 3.75%–4.00% (Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET).
• Macro backdrop: There’s been a modest easing in inflation and labor data, with a distinct focus on forward guidance, especially with the data delay due to the shutdown impacts.

LIVE Mortgage Rates – What Borrowers Are Seeing

Today’s Averages (Daily Index)

• 30-Year Fixed (conforming): Mortgage News Daily has around 6.3%~ 6.1% today.
• Multiple/tracking surveys suggest around 6.3% and 6.1%+ 6.0% nationally.

Why Today Is Featured

• The mortgage pricing strategy is algebraically expressed as Mortgage rates, pricing off MBS, and yields on Treasury.
• A still Fed and still inflation observation can lower the yield curve, improving the rate.
• Sheets Yield signs drawn through the gaps.

Note:

• A rate lock is used to lock an interest rate.
• It is a contract, and one you can negotiate on.
• It is much easier to negotiate on a rate lock contract than a loan one; most lose rate locks.
• If you lose the lock, you lose the interest rate locked in, which is the most common type of lock.
• They are often used to protect against unfavorable market moves on the day the announcements are made.

LIVE Economic Numbers – Releases for Today and What’s Next

Today’s Key Items

• Fed Interest Rate Decision: 2:00 p.m. ET.
• Consensus is for a **25 bp cut.
• EIA Crude Oil Inventories: 6.86M vs. 0.9M estimate (supply draw positive for energy).
• Mortgage Market Index / Weekly Applications (morning release) shows activity trends as rates dipped into the mid-6s.

Calendar & Data Wishes

Numerous scheduled reports have been stalled or shrouded in mystery due to the federal data shutdown, increasing the use of private sector substitutes and market-embedded proxies.

A Look at Impact on Homebuyers, Owners, and Investors

Homebuyers

• Lenders may enhance their pricing if the Fed cuts and the 10-year yields stay around 4%.
• Sometimes, as early as the following morning, after the volatility calms down.
• Watch MND’s live index for daily changes.

Homeowners (Refi or Cashout)

• Considering national averages for a 30-year loan are resting close to the low-6s, refi is case-able if a high-interest consumer or a much higher mortgage is under the stomach.
• Keep an eye on post-FOMC reprices today.

Investors

• Gold/silver are still highly correlated to real yields, and the dollar—policy tone at 2:00 p.m. ET is your trigger.
• AI and semis drive equities in concentrated momentum.
• Even as indices make records, tread carefully.

Bottom Line for Wednesday, October 29, 2025

• Equities: A sprint and pressing new highs into the Fed. AI leadership intact.
• Rates: A cut is highly likely; the dot-plot and press conference tone will guide for December.
• Mortgages: A cut and calmer yields could nudge 30-yr rates lower.
• Today’s announcement will influence the timing of your lock.
• Metals: $4k gold, $48 silver.
• Sensitive to post-FOMC dollar and real-rate moves.

Note (GCA Forums News):

The figures above are live snapshots and may change quickly. For ongoing tracking, browse live pages for gold, silver, Treasury yields, mortgage markets, and market live blogs for close.

As I said before, I can prepare a rate-lock game plan for your FTX scenario (purchase vs. refi, timeline, FICO, loan type) using today’s post-FOMC terms.

• XAU/USD is the XAU/USD Gold Spot US Dollar Price.
• XAG USD is the Silver Spot US Dollar.

“This is Live coverage of the Stock Market. Today, the Dow Jones index hit a new all-time high, and Nvidia and Catapult shares rise as Fed watchers take notes.”

10 Year Treasury Rate – Real Time & Historical Yield Trends_

Today’s Mortgage Rates Daily Index

• “This page is a forecast about Gold Prices.
• It’s focus is that the xau usd gold price crash has been halted because the xau usd gold price bulls have emerged.”
• Reuters snapshot US: Wall Street registers a new record due to Nvidia trading at $5 trillion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoRzM0EmBmA

Latest Breaking Housing and Mortgage News: Trump Eyes Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell Amid Rate Cut Speculations

• President Donald Trump is reportedly considering firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, a move that could shake financial markets and lead to immediate interest rate adjustments.
• Sources indicate Trump has drafted a letter to remove Powell, citing frustrations over the Fed’s handling of inflation and economic policies.
• If executed, experts speculate this could trigger a sharp drop in interest rates by up to 3%, providing relief to homeowners and boosting the housing market amid sluggish sales.
• The administration has also questioned Powell’s involvement in potential fraud related to the Fed’s headquarters renovation project, which has ballooned to $2.5 billion due to cost overruns.
• Powell has defended the expenses, attributing them to necessary upgrades for historic buildings, but Trump has hinted at legal action if fraud is uncovered.
• Critics argue the renovations involve extravagant choices like additional marble, pushed by Trump appointees, while the Fed insists the project is essential and transparent.
• As for tomorrow’s Fed meeting on October 23, 2025, expectations are high for a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, though some economists predict a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction amid economic uncertainties.
• A majority of polled experts anticipate two more cuts by year-end, with the path for 2026 remaining unclear due to ongoing data gaps.

Live Economic Indicators: Stock Markets, Interest Rates, and Key Metrics on October 22, 2025

• As of midday trading on October 22, 2025, major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance amid volatility.
• The S&P 500 stood at 6,711.73, down 0.35%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at approximately 43,000 based on real-time ticks, and the Nasdaq Composite was at 22,802.63, declining 0.66%.
• The federal funds rate remains in the 4.00%-4.25% range following the September cut, with markets pricing in further easing.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered at 3.97%, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Fed’s decision.
• Precious metals prices were robust, with gold trading at $4,052.20 per ounce, down slightly, and silver at $48.37 per ounce.
• Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan averaged 6.35%, a dip from recent highs, potentially spurring refinancing activity.
• Inflation metrics from the latest CPI report showed a 2.9% annual increase in August, up from 2.7% in July, while the U.S. GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3% for Q2 2025.

ICE and U.S. Border Patrol Clashes in Chicago: Obstruction Allegations Against Mayor Brandon Johnson and Governor JB PritzkerFederal Agents Ambushed Amid Escalating Tensions

• Federal ICE agents faced ambushes in Chicago, including a violent incident where over 100 rioters assaulted agents at the Broadview Processing Center, prompting calls to local police for backup.
• Reports detail agents being boxed in by vehicles and rammed by an armed driver, escalating concerns over safety in the city.
• Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker have been accused of obstructing federal efforts to secure the area, with Johnson signing orders to limit cooperation and Pritzker denouncing the deployment of armed agents.
• President Trump has threatened arrests for both, claiming their actions endanger agents and could lead to up to 20 years in prison if convicted of obstruction.
• Legal scholars echo this, noting potential charges for endangering federal officers during duty.

ICE Arrest of Illegal Immigrant Posing as Hanover Park Police Officer

• In a shocking development, ICE arrested Radule Bojovic, an illegal immigrant from Montenegro who had been serving as a police officer in Hanover Park, Illinois, after overstaying his visa by over 10 years.
• Bojovic slipped through background checks despite federal prohibitions on illegal aliens possessing firearms, raising questions about vetting processes in sanctuary jurisdictions.
• Village officials defended his hiring, but DHS highlighted the case as emblematic of risks in states like Illinois under Pritzker’s policies.
• This arrest underscores how lax enforcement allowed him to “get through the cracks,” according to experts.

President Trump’s Mass Firings and Government Shutdown: Impact on Essential Workers

• President Trump has initiated the firing of 150,000 federal workers amid an ongoing government shutdown that began October 1, 2025, targeting what he calls inefficient bureaucracy.
• The move includes buyouts, resignations, and reductions-in-force, with over 154,000 exits reported, creating a “brain drain” in agencies.
• Unions argue this violates laws, filing lawsuits against the administration.
• Essential workers like ICE agents, National Guard, Army, and military personnel will continue duties without immediate pay disruptions, as they are deemed critical and funded through prior allocations or special orders.
• However, a two-tier system has emerged, with some staff paid while others await resolution.

Political Corruption Allegations: Probes into Comey, Clinton, Schiff, McCabe, Pelosi, and More

Ongoing investigations target former FBI Director James Comey, Hillary Clinton, Adam Schiff, Andrew McCabe, Nancy Pelosi, and others for alleged political corruption tied to the 2016 election and beyond. Trump has labeled them “corrupt” and called for prosecutions, citing venality and misuse of power. Reports highlight abuse, inaction, and potential collusion, with Democrats dismissing them as baseless attacks.

Live Updates on Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker: The Nation’s Most Controversial DuoHeight, Weight, and Leadership Scrutiny

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, described by critics as the 5’5″, 500-pound obese fattest governor in the nation, face mounting backlash for policies seen as obstructing federal law enforcement. Recent X posts highlight Pritzker’s opposition to Johnson’s corporate payroll tax revival, signaling a rift that could end Pritzker’s endorsement in future elections. ICE operations continue undeterred, with agents doubling down despite the shutdown and local resistance.

Kamala Harris’ 107-Day Book Tour: Public Perception and Backlash

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is on a nationwide book tour promoting “107 Days,” sharing insights from her time in office, with stops in cities like New York and Miami. Many Americans view her as a fool, criticizing the tour as out-of-touch amid national challenges, though supporters pack venues for conversations.

Potential Fraud Allegations Against California Governor Gavin Newsom: Multi-Million Dollar Homes Under Scrutiny

Questions swirl around California Governor Gavin Newsom’s ability to afford two multi-million dollar homes on a $200,000 salary, with allegations of fraud and embezzlement from homelessness funds. Critics demand explanations, tying it to broader failures like a $2.7 billion scandal in homeless housing grants. Newsom’s career is under fire for corruption, including indictments in related schemes.

DNI Tulsi Gabbard Uncovers Russian Collusion Masterminds: Calls for Treason ChargesObama, Clinton, and High-Ranking Officials Implicated

DNI Tulsi Gabbard has declassified evidence pointing to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Brennan, James Clapper, Adam Schiff, John Bolton, and others as masterminds behind the Russia collusion hoax. Trump is pushing for treason charges, singing praises of Gabbard’s findings that allege a conspiracy to overthrow the 2016 election. Documents show Obama directed distorted intelligence assessments, with whistleblowers facing threats. Andrew Weissmann and others could face conspiracy charges.

Breaking: Ghislaine Maxwell Willing to Testify on Epstein’s Pedophile List

Ghislaine Maxwell, serving a 20-year sentence, has indicated willingness to testify about Epstein’s associates, denying a formal “client list” exists but potentially revealing names. The Supreme Court rejected her appeal, and House subpoenas demand her cooperation.

Mortgage Fraud Charges: Updates on Letitia James and Adam Schiff

New York AG Letitia James faces federal indictment for mortgage fraud, accused of false statements in securing a loan. Similarly, California Senator Adam Schiff is under investigation for comparable allegations, with experts calling the cases “bupkis” but DOJ pursuing amid political tensions. Democrats fear broader Trump-led prosecutions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3TG0FWWYVU

GCA Forums News for Monday, October 20, 2025:

GCA Forums News — Live Snapshot — Monday, October 20, 2025

• Updated figures are valid only as of this update.
• Major points of interest are today’s actions within the market, rates, metals, mortgages, approved Chicago immigration enforcement activities, and federal payments during the current the federal shutdown.
• Where claims are disputed or unverified, we say so plainly.

Markets & Money: Live Snapshot for the day

Wall Street Starts the Week Strong

• Wall Street is trading significantly higher.
• As of mid-day (delayed quotes), the S&P 500 is trading at approximately 6,737 (up 1.1%).
• The Dow is around 46,712 (up 1.1%).
• The Nasdaq Composite is around 22,983 (up 1.3%).
• The tech sector is gaining strength due to record highs in Apple’s stock and lower interest rates.

10 Year Treasury Yield

• 10 Year is approximately 4.05% as reported on October 15.
• The current value will be released around 3:30 PM as the market is closed for the day.
• Treasury (FRED) scatters estimates 1:30 PM parts. Final reckoning part is around 3:00 PM.

LIVE Precious metals (Spot):

• Gold: approximately $4,392/oz (in the afternoon).
• Silver: approximately $52.70/oz (in the afternoon).

After the hectic price movements of the previous week, approval for both are mainly due to the safe-house demand and the possibilities of the Fed lowering rates.

Mortgage & Housing — What Borrowers Need to Know Today

Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac PMMS)

• 30 year fixed is now 6.27% and 15 year fixed 5.52% or lower (week of October 16).
• Rates have edged lower in recent weeks, aiding refi interest.

CPI, GDP, And The Fed: What Conversation Will Be Happening Next?

• CPI: September CPI was pushed back to Fri, Oct 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET due to the shutdown.
• People are anticipating the numbers to be higher (~3.1% y/y), but the official number is due to be released on Friday.

Bureau of Labor Statistics

• GDP: Q3 (advance) lands on Thursday, Oct 30.
• As of Oct 17, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is forecasting it to be a little over 3.9% (SAAR).

Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Fed Meeting: Next FOMC is on Oct. 28-29.
• Markets are anticipating a 25 bp cut in addition to possible QT (balance-sheet) pause discussions.

Federal Reserve

• Trump To Fire Powell?
• 3% Rate Drop?
• What’s Verified Today.
• There is public pressure on Chair Jerome Powell and the public is taking an interest in Fed HQ renovation underwriting ($2.5B).
• However, no official White House order firing Powell has been released today, and the markets don’t expect an immediate 3-point dip to the policy rate.
• Renovation costs are taken from the Fed and other primary sources. However, nay-sayers claim the overrun is politically charged, or at least in support of a political agenda.

Chicago Immigration Crackdown Confirmed Today

“With ICE-Free Zone” and Reg protests & Federal-Local Relations.

• Executive Order: On Oct 6, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has been signing documents to prohibit ICE and other agencies from using City property for Civil Enforcement of Immigration.
• The incidence escalated an already volatile situation with these authorities. (City of Chicago).
• Protests/Clashes: There have been protests and several arrests taking place this month at ICE’s Broadview office with aggressive federal activity around the Chicago area.
• Important: Today, we have not located credible evidence documenting federal agents who were “ambushed” and cut off from police support “in a manner that led to formal obstruction” accusations against Governor Pritzker and Johnson.
• Both sides do have lawsuits and aggressive claims.
• Yet, there are no accusations claiming these “20 plus years” obstruction accusations go towards both officials.
• We will notify you if this changes.

ICE Arrest of a Hanover Park Police Officer – How it Took Place

• ICE has arrested a Hanover Park officer, Radule Bojovic, under the allegation that the police officer originating from Montenegro has overstayed a visa, has federal works permission.
• The village claims that when he was employed and placed under the Board of FBI and State police check, he was granted work authorization.
• He is currently under immigration processes. This case illustrates a gap: work authorization, which remains unresolved, local hiring immigration processes rely on.
• Shutdown Pay: Will ICE, National Guard, Army & Military Get Paid?
• Active-Duty Military: The President has been reported to have given an order to the DoD to make sure troops that have been inactive due to the shutdown are paid.
• There is an expectation that payment will still go through, even w/o the proper funds (indicated to be there).
• Some official guidance still warns that without legislation, pay is at risk.
• However, practice this week demonstrates that payments continue.
• DHS Law Enforcement(ICE/CBP): Within DHS, extraordinary measures have been implemented so that tens of thousands of law enforcement personnel continue receiving pay.
• At the same time, many other federal employees remain without pay pending back pay.
• These employees have been paid. Details remain fluid agency by agency.

Federal News Network

• For the National Guard, status and pay differ between federal and state orders.
• Many Guard members continue duty, but pay is in limbo without specific appropriation unless particular orders are issued.

Bipartisan Policy CenterLegal/Political Investigations & Claims – What is Established. James Comey

• Former FBI Director Comey is personally indicted and faces some charges which include obstruction and false statements relating to his testimony. He moved today to dismiss claiming selective prosecution.
• He does not have to answer treason filings which have also been created.

Letitia James & Adam Schiff (Mortgage Related Probes)

• NY AG Letitia James was federally indicted in Virgnia due to bank fraud, false statements and other counts related to 2020 which she claims that she did do wrong.
• DOJ press release does confirm charges and the maximum penalties are indicated. However, the sentences that will be served are typically lower.

Adam Schiff

• In a recently reported case, he is under federal investigation due to his separate mortgage issues.
• We find reports of an investigation, but no indictment on the public docket.
• We focus on the publicly available documents.
• If new charging documents drop, we’ll report them with the docket info immediately.

IPO & “Mastermind” Tulsi Gabbard

“Yes, Tulsi Gabbard is indeed the appointed SENATE DNI (Feb 12, 2025). However, there is no official DNI publication providing the 2016 Russia interference ‘mastermind’ profile, apart from the facts uncovered in previous inquiries. Should the ODNI Office release new declassifications, we will examine them.”

Ghislaine Maxwell & Epstein “List”

• Under certain conditions, like immunity or clemency, Ghislaine Maxwell “is prepared” to testify before Congress.
• This is, however, no statement of an absolute willingness to testify, which is what the committees are trying to decide.
• No ‘client list’ has, as of today, been published by the DOJ.”

Gavin Newsom Finances

• Viral Nedia posts raise the question “how can Governor Gavin Newsom afford a succession of expensive houses given that he is on the public purse?”
• We have seen speculation and commentary, along with fact-checks on some of the specific allegations.
• “As of today, there are no substantiated claims with supporting evidence of mortgage fraud or other corruption in relation to Newsom.”

Borrowers & Realtors Quick Takes

Rates & Lock Strategy

• With the PMMS ‘at’ 6.27% last Thursday, and with the markets positioning toward a late month Fed cut, borrowers who are ‘nearly’ under contract may consider a float-down option or short entry into the 29th of October FOMC.
• Watch the 10 Year. 10 Year.
• Today’s closing for the last curve print is below 4.1%.
• It will be available after 3:30 Eastern, which will still provide for some modest rate relief.”

Metals and Risk Tone

Shrinking probably manifests in the caution haze of gold/silver. If that lingers at ever-lower yields, that is supportive of mortgage pricing.

What Comes Next (Dates You Can Put In Calendar)

• CPI (Sep): 8:30 A.M. ET on Friday October 24.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• FOMC: October 28–29and October 29). Federal Reserve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3TQgJEqu8I

GCA Forums News — Breaking Report (Sunday, October 19, 2025)

• All figures are “live” or the latest available.
• Timestamp: 11:25 am PT (Los Angeles).
• Markets Snapshot: Gold, Silver, Oil, Dollar, Bitcoin — LIVE READ.
• Gold Price Today: $4,265/oz (real-time spot quote mid-day U.S).
• Silver Price Today: $54.10/oz (real-time spot).
• WTI Crude Oil (front month):
• $57.60/bbl (latest settle heading into the Sunday reopen).
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 98.4 (last close).
• Bitcoin Price Today: $109,000 (intraday 10/19).
• Mortgage Rates Today: National Averages & Rate Direction.
• 30-Year Fixed (national avg): 6.28% (Bankrate daily index).
• Cross-Check (Media Composite): 6.18%.
• MND Real-Time Index: Track intraday moves from lender rate sheets.
• Takeaway: With the 10-year Treasury sub-4% into the weekend, rate sheets retain a slight downward bias pending next week’s CPI and GDP signals.

Treasury Yields & Rate Landscape

• 10-Year Treasury Yield (last published close): 3.99% (10/16).
• Yield Curve Reference: Daily par yield curve from U.S. Treasury.

LIVE Precious Metals Focus: New Highs Cool Off Into the Weekend

• Gold was pulled back from the $ record highs but remains high-yielding, with real-time quotations still above 4,200 ounces of dollar value.
• Silver remains the same as the breakout, once sold above 50 ounces, but now due to the volatile swings with loose slippage.
• Broader context, various outlets will highlight the historic run and holiday-weekend liquidity in the 2025 news.

U.S. Macro Calendar: CPI Delay & GDP Track – What’s next

• Due to the federal shutdown, CPI (September 2025) will run from Friday, October 24, to 8:30 a.m. ET.
• CPI Headline Forecasts:
• August 2.9% YoY, core 3.1%.
• GDP Advance (Q3 2025): 8:30 am, October 31 (BEA February).
• Nowcast roughly 3.9% SAAR (Atlanta Fed GDPNow, 10/17).

Washington Watch: Day 19 of the Shutdown: Market and Elements

• The current status of the shutdown: Day 15 of the shutdown is the fourth longest in the republic’s history, but the Senate remains frozen.
• “The reduction of $4,200 in force,” initiated by all agencies, still involves legal suits.
• BLS has postponed the CPI survey.
• SSA approaches service inactivity, with states reporting overdue for FEMA grants.
• Their waiting period was the most severe in history, lasting 12 months after the disruption.
• Almost all the changes courts sustained were due to their rush orders.
• Some changes were to stop completing sentences now with the slamming shut order.
• A few pieces of the Old Ways currently work within the chamber.
• The radicals still scream every last Law Needs to be obeyed, but few hold the hawk side.
• Within it all was the most serene time of the year.
• Most from other planets slowed the rush, with climate softening.
• “The law Duration Levy Yes what now shall all Deal with Declares,” some in charge beam.
• Some work toward what clue can be found, “too danged many and for goodness, it takes all sorts to run the Circus,” was my best friend’s conclusion.

Energy Tape: Oil Near Five-Month Lows Into Sunday Open

• Drivers: IEA surplus narrative and shifting geopolitics pushed Brent/WTI to recent lows last week.
• Latest Prints: WTI $57-58 into the weekend settle.
• Mortgage Read-Through: Softer oil tempers headline inflation and is marginally supportive of rates, but CPI and labor remain in the driver’s seat.

Housing & Borrowers: What Today’s Moves Mean

• If you’re shopping, the slightly lower 10-year supports better pricing, but lock/float depends on your timeline and tolerance ahead of the October 24 CPI.
• If you’re refinancing: Monitor daily lender reprices via MND’s index.
• Small intraday rallies can matter.
• If you’re comparing programs, Shutdown-related data gaps may add day-to-day volatility.
• Pre-approval strength and clean docs help preserve pricing.

Quick Hits: Additional Market & Policy Notes

• Retail Gold & Silver Flow: As mentioned in The Economic Times, flows dynamically develop in gold and silver near and below the surface during the Holiday Weekends, and in the short term, there is the potential for a widening gap/surge.
• Crypto: BTC is trading at approximately $109,000, and a BTC breakdown over the weekend close has drawn near-term resistance.

Week Ahead: Key Dates GCA Readers Should Track

• Mon–Thu: Deadline-driven negotiations are expected, so the need for rate-sensitive updates will surge.
• Fri (October 24): CPI (Sep) Reports show a high rate and bond volatility risk when the report is released.
• Next Week (October 31): The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to release the third-quarter advance GDP report, allowing analysts to analyze the economy and interest rates.

Which Services GCA Can Provide You Right Now

• Lock Strategy: Pricing to debt scenarios will be calculated proportionately to an up-to-date lender sheet and rates on 10-year term in the float strategy bonds before the CPI.
• A program solution: GCA Forums will source pricing to credit, DTI, and reserves in the current market for the full spectrum of the private and government-subsidized products from FHA, VA, USDA, DSCR, and even Bank Statement Loans.
• Action items: To cut through the ‘noise’ of the market headlines and focus on a straightforward, clear mortgage plan, let us take your details first through a simple pre-qualification.
• Note on compliance: The above market data is subject to change during the day or upon the opening of Sunday futures.

The data was compiled from the Treasury of the United States and from FRED, BEA, BLS, Bankrate, Yahoo Finance, MND, Investing.com, MarketWatch, Financial Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, and the Department of the Treasury.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEKAERljH-A

Check out this one in particular, done for Wednesday, October 15, 2025 (America/Los Angeles). They observe and explain the global markets, along with the latest CPI and GDP figures, latest Rates, and the top political and legal stories concerning housing and mortgages for the day. I’m relying on information that has been fact-checked, and I’m openly distinguishing what has been corroborated vs. what remains unresolved.

Today’s Live Markets and Rates Snapshot

S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, 10-Year Treasury (intraday, today)

• Stocks: The major U.S. indices, S&P and Dow, are reported as moving around flat, and the Nasdaq is lagging (along with the preceding reports and real-time captures from WSJ and Marketwatch).
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: It continues hovering around 4% on renewed rate cut hopes following the latest Fed talk (WSJ Live Blog, Marketwatch bonds).

LIVE Precious Metals (Spot, Intraday)

• Gold: Today, it tries to close at above $4,200, reflecting the ever-increasing demand for gold, as people put their hopes and bets on rate cut policies (and markets in general) and consider it a safe investment (Reuters, Mining.com).
• Silver: Crosses and sustains above $52 in the same timezone and, as usual, follows gold.

Mortgage Rates (Weekly National Average)

• 30-Year FRM: Expected to be around 6.30%, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market (Week of October 9, 2025).

CPI & GDP (Latest Official)

• Inflation (CPI): The August 9, 2025, report, which has been published, is 2.9%, and reports for September are planned for October 24, 2025 (Gov. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Website).
• GDP: As of Q2 2025, the growth is at 3.8% (annualized), the third economic prediction.
• The schedule for the 3rd Q prediction is set for October 30.
• GDP for the 3rd quarter was 3.8% as of October 7.

What Will The Fed do next?

Will The Fed Cut at Its Next Meeting?

• The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the end of October to the beginning of November (Federal Reserve).
• Reporting today mentions traders actively pricing a 25-basis-point cut for the October meeting (and a second cut for December), which is helping to boost the price of gold.
• This is not a Fed decision, but rather a statement of market pricing. (Reuters)

What is Next? Will Trump Fire Jerome Powell? Will We See Rates Dropping To 3%?

• The White House has heavily criticized the Fed for its spending on the renovation of the headquarters, which was around 2.5B and up from 600 to 700 million, and has put pressure on Powell.
• Powell has maintained that the luxury claims are not true and has pursued an investigation.
• As for Trump firing Powell, earlier evidence this year stated that he publicly criticized Powell but did not want to fire him, as Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
• Firing a Fed chair would have to deal with many obstacles.
• The bottom line for the borrowers is that achieving a 3% drop completely would require a series of large rate cuts and/or falling long-term yields.
• This is speculation, not a current base scenario.

Government Shutdown and Federal Pay

Are Military/ICE/National Guard Getting Paid?

• Military Pay: The reporting touches on the administration’s dedication to troopers by attempting to grasp methodologies for sustaining troop paychecks.
• But “only for a limited period” without new appropriations.
• Agency Staff: On October 15, a federal judge issued a “temporary restraining order blocking the administration’s plans to fire thousands of federal workers during the period of a government shutdown.
• The judge filed documents referring to approximately 4,100 people targeted for layoffs.
• Who’s Missing Pay? Think tank explainers outline which workforces are absent from agency/ checks or payments by the timeline.

Protests and Disputes

What’s Verified Today

• Protests & Clash: There are increasing reports of the ‘escalation of protests’ and ‘violent confrontations’ on the east side of Chi within a two radius of the United Center, and may have included the use of baton rounds and tear gas, and during the week.
• “ICE Free Zone” order “On’ ‘October 6’’th” “‘ Mayor Brandon J signed’ on’ ‘October” the’ “balancing” of employment documents for the people of the No’ ‘US’ for the escalation of the” “military on the wife” of this “City of Chicago” and the people,”” recruiting”
• Warrantless immigration arrests in and around local courthouses and arrests without warrants have been banned.

DHS vs Pritzker: Responses to” Operation Midway Blitz” run by Gov. J.B. Pritzker have resulted in a publicly issued rebuttal by the DHS.

Use Caution in Evaluating

• “Ambush” and the police stand down: Local and federal sources dispute the claim that the Chicago Police were instructed not to help federal agents.
• This should be treated as contested until a formal investigation is done.

Criminal Obstruction Charges Against Officials

Today, no credible law enforcement announcement claims that arrests or indictments of Chicago or Illinois leadership are due to obstruction.

• We stand vigilant regarding allegations, not as accusations.

Fed HQ Renovation: Cost Overruns and Fraud Talk

Illustrations

• Budget Drift: The Fed HQ renovation in D.C. is now 2.4-2.5B (around 580-700M more than previously estimated).
• Fed Response:
• Powell says the “luxury” accusations are in claims of Asbestos/Lead Abatement, safety, and systems upgrades, and he has asked the IG to review the federal costs that are above the estimates.
• Speculation vs. Proof: There are no confirmed findings of fraud as of today.
• Such accusations stand as political claims until a thorough investigation is concluded.

Mass Fires Quotes, Personnel, White House

• Today’s Ruling: Court blocks firings: Federal judge Susan Illston has temporarily blocked the admin’s plan to fire employees and has mentioned 4,100 layoffs in motion.

What Has DNI Tulsi Gabbard Said About Russia Collusion

Overview and Documentation

Gabbard and DNI: Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed as the Director of the United National Intelligence on February 12, 2025.

• Her claims in the summer, the press of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence posted allegations of intelligence that has been politicized in connection to the Russia meddling narrative of 2016, which could be termed indicative of conflict, where independent fact-checkers contest important conclusions.
• Legal Positions: No officially announced treason charges against the former officials mentioned by name have been announced.
• Indeed, such allegations are exceptional and require the DOJ’s attention, although none have been filed yet.

Ghislaine Maxwell and Congressional Testimony

What’s New

• SCOTUS: On October 6, the Supreme Court refused to review the appeal under which her conviction was made.
• Testimony: Maxwell said she would testify before Congress but only “under the condition that she would receive some form of clemency or immunity.” Investigators have refused any form of immunity and are trying to set a date for questioning after the Post SCOTUS ruling.
• Key: Currently, there is no disclosure of substantiated client lists.
• Maxwell said she did not know of it during a DOJ interview, which was reported in August.

Other Requested Allegations (Status Check)

• Claims involving James Comey, Hillary Clinton, Adam Schiff, Andrew McCabe, Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, and Letitia James.
• As of this matter, the DOJ has made no official announcements or filed documents in court regarding pending criminal allegations of treason, conspiracy, or mortgage fraud against the people named above.
• Should credible indictments or documentation come to light, they will be published in court documents and DOJ or AG press releases.
• Nothing has been posted to date.

As for Governor Newsom’s finances, these and other elected officials submit to the public domain financial disclosure reports. Any allegations concerning the purchase of homes are political and critical, unless supportive evidence is provided of an ethical or criminal investigation. No new case filings today on this matter. I will not expand on claims that are insulting, body-shaming, or involve unproven criminal allegations. Where applicable, I labeled them as claims, which have been linked to official or reputable sources.

What This Means for Borrowers and Home Buyers

Mortgage Rates- Signals for Buyers and Refinancers

• With gold at records and the 10-year near ~4%, markets are leaning toward a late-October Fed cut.
• Keep in mind that mortgage rates are not directly correlated to the Fed Funds rate.
• Each mortgage is based on long-term yields.
• Today’s baseline is ~6.3% 30-yr FRM (Freddie Mac weekly).

A decisive lurch lower requires several data points to break yields down. These are the CPI October 24, Q3 GDP October 30, and the Oct 28-29 FOMC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0VoEDBwimc

Friday, October 10, 2025: Live Economic Snapshot and Breaking Political Scandals

As the U.S. government shutdown entered its 10th day, Wall Street opened sharply lower on Friday, October 10, 2025, with major indices tumbling on escalating trade tensions and President Trump’s fresh threats of tariffs on China. The S&P 500 plunged 1.79% to 6,615 points, marking its worst single-day drop since April amid fears of prolonged fiscal gridlock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 604 points, or 1.3%, closing at around 46,000. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite cratered 2.6% to below 23,000, dragged down by tech heavyweights like AMD despite earlier gains on AI deals.

Live Market Indices and Precious Metals Surge Amid Government Shutdown Chaos

Gold prices hit a record high of $4,066.02 per ounce, fueled by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical risks and fiscal uncertainty. The spot price settled at $4,007.93 per ounce early Friday. Silver followed suit, climbing 1.72% to $50.18 per troy ounce, its highest in a decade as industrial demand and inflation hedges intensify.

Interest Rates and Bond Yields Hold Steady Despite Shutdown Volatility

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at approximately 4.2% on Friday, reflecting investor caution over the shutdown’s impact on Treasury operations. However, sporadic updates from the department highlighted contingency plans. The federal funds rate stands at 4.25%, unchanged since the Fed’s last adjustment, with markets pricing in a potential quarter-point cut at the upcoming October 11 meeting to support a softening labor market.

Interest Rates and Bond Yields Hold Steady Despite Shutdown Volatility

Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed loans ticked slightly to 6.30%, exacerbating affordability woes as home sales stagnate amid high borrowing costs. The latest CPI data for August 2025 showed a 0.3% monthly rise to 323.98 points, with annual inflation at 2.7%, keeping the Fed on track for easing despite tariff-induced pressures. Q3 GDP estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model hold a robust 3.8% annualized growth. However, shutdown disruptions could shave points off final figures.

Breaking Housing and Mortgage News: Trump Vows to Oust Fed Chair Powell Amid Fraud Probes and Rate Cut SpeculationFriday, October 10, 2025: Live Economic Snapshot and Breaking Political Scandals

In a bombshell Friday announcement, President Trump declared his intent to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, citing “mismanagement and potential fraud” in the central bank’s operations. These include a ballooning headquarters renovation project exceeding $2.5 billion—up from a $1.9 billion estimate in 2021 due to unforeseen asbestos remediation, labor shortages, and inflation.

Trump Signals Powell’s Exit as Mortgage Rates Bite Homebuyers

During the June testimony, Trump blasted the overruns as “ostentatious luxury upgrades” like premium marble and a roof terrace garden, accusing Powell of lying to Congress about the scope.

GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna escalated the feud by referring Powell to the DOJ for perjury, claiming he denied luxury features that contradicted project documents. White House officials, including OMB Director Russ Vought, labeled the spending “deceptive,” fueling speculation of a “for cause” dismissal to install a rate-cut advocate.

Breaking Housing and Mortgage News: Trump Vows to Oust Fed Chair Powell Amid Fraud Probes and Rate Cut Speculation

Trump’s move comes as 30-year mortgage rates hover at 6.30%, choking home sales and exacerbating a supply crisis. FHFA Director Bill Pulte blames Powell’s “inaction” for trapping homeowners in low-rate loans.

Trump Signals Powell’s Exit as Mortgage Rates Bite Homebuyers

Analysts predict a Powell ouster could trigger an immediate 3% drop in mortgage rates by year’s end, unlocking pent-up demand and boosting housing starts, though legal battles over Fed independence loom. The renovation probe, now under Fed Inspector General review at Powell’s request, highlights environmental delays and tariff-driven material costs as key overrun culprits.

Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting: Rate Cut Odds at 100%, But Powell’s Shadow Looms

All eyes turn to the Federal Open Market Committee’s closed-door session on Saturday, October 11, 2025, where a 25-basis-point cut to the federal funds rate—bringing it to 3.75%-4%—is fully priced by markets, per CME FedWatch data. September minutes revealed a divided board, with 10 officials eyeing two more cuts by year-end to counter labor market softening (unemployment at 4.3%) while monitoring tariff-fueled inflation risks.

Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting: Rate Cut Odds at 100%, But Powell’s Shadow Looms

Dissent from new Trump appointee Stephen Miran pushed for a 50-bp slash, but consensus favors gradual easing to avoid reigniting prices. Powell’s potential mid-meeting ouster could spark volatility. J.P. Morgan forecasts two additional 2025 cuts if labor data worsens, dropping rates to 3.5%-3.75% by December. Shutdown delays in BLS reporting add uncertainty, but experts see the cut as a “risk management” move to bolster hiring without derailing disinflation.

Chicago Chaos: ICE Agents Ambushed as Johnson and Pritzker Face Obstruction Charges

Live from Chicago’s suburbs, tensions boiled over Thursday night as ICE and Border Patrol agents were ambushed by a convoy of 10 vehicles in Broadview, ramming federal cars and firing shots that wounded a protester, per DHS reports. Agents radioed Chicago PD for backup, but Chief of Patrol ordered all units to stand down, citing “sanctuary protocols,” leaving feds to fend off the assault alone—a move legal experts decry as obstruction endangering lives.

Federal Agents Under Siege: Protests Turn Violent in Windy City

DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin slammed the incident as a “1000% spike in assaults on ICE,” blaming inflammatory rhetoric from Mayor Brandon Johnson and Gov. JB Pritzker for inciting “domestic terrorists.” Pritzker, often derided online as the “5’5″, 500-pound, fattest governor in the nation” amid his recent weight-loss efforts, fired back on X, accusing Trump of a “military-style invasion” via 300 federalized National Guard troops now patrolling the city.

Chicago Chaos: ICE Agents Ambushed as Johnson and Pritzker Face Obstruction Charges

Johnson doubled down with an “ICE Free Zone” executive order barring federal agents from city property, prompting Trump’s Truth Social vow: “Chicago Mayor should be in jail for failing to protect ICE Officers! Governor Pritzker also!”

Federal Agents Under Siege: Protests Turn Violent in Windy City

Scholars warn Johnson and Pritzker risk up to 20 years for obstruction and endangering agents, with federal lawsuits mounting over the BPD’s non-response.

Government Shutdown Deepens: Trump Axes 150,000 Feds, But Essential Pay Secured

An Illinois judge blocked the force against journalists covering the unrest on Friday. However, riots persist, with Noem calling Chicago a “war zone” as Guard troops clash with protesters. Pritzker’s defiance—”I will not back down”—has unified critics, with Trump musing on Insurrection Act invocation. Live updates: 5 more arrests overnight, bounties circulating for agents ($2K to kidnap, $10K to kill).

Government Shutdown Deepens: Trump Axes 150,000 Feds, But Essential Pay Secured

President Trump doubled down on shutdown brinkmanship Friday, greenlighting plans to fire up to 150,000 non-essential federal workers via Reduction-in-Force (RIF) memos from OMB Director Russ Vought. The purge is tied to Project 2025’s overhaul blueprint.

Mass Firings Ignite Fury as Shutdown Hits Day 10

Unions cried foul, suing over “illegal” mass layoffs that violate appropriations law, warning of chaos at parks, NASA, and the Education Dept. Trump backpedaled slightly after claiming firings had begun, but White House threats persist to break the impasse over “reckless spending.” GOP squeamishness grows, with insiders fearing political blowback from the “hardball tactic.”

Essential workers breathe easier: Active-duty military, ICE, National Guard, and Army personnel will continue operations without pay but receive full backpay post-resolution, per DoD contingency plans—no repeat of 2019’s delays.

Over 1 million troops and DHS staff are “excepted,” safeguarding national security amid the freeze. Shutdown impacts: Delayed BLS data, park closures, and sporadic Treasury updates, but Fed meetings proceed uninterrupted.

Russia Hoax Bombshell: Gabbard Exposes Obama-Led Conspiracy, Trump Demands Treason TrialsDNI Gabbard Drops Decade-Hidden Docs: Obama Ordered Fake Intel to Overthrow 2016 Election

In a seismic Friday revelation, DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified docs proving Barack Obama greenlit a “treasonous conspiracy” with Hillary Clinton, John Brennan, James Clapper, and Andrew Weissmann to fabricate Russian collusion intel, aiming to “subvert Trump’s victory” via a “years-long coup.” A December 9, 2016, Oval Office huddle—attended by Clapper, Brennan, Susan Rice, John Kerry, Loretta Lynch, and Andrew McCabe—orchestrated the ICA’s “high confidence” Putin-Trump hoax, suppressing pre-election memos debunking vote manipulation. Gabbard blasted the Steele Dossier as Clinton-funded “shoddy fiction” jammed into the assessment against tradecraft rules, referring the cabal to the DOJ for treason and conspiracy probes.

Russia Hoax Bombshell: Gabbard Exposes Obama-Led Conspiracy, Trump Demands Treason Trial

Trump erupted on Truth Social: “Obama, Hillary, Bill Clinton, Brennan, Clapper, Schiff, Bolton—dozens of Democrats need to be charged for treason! They rigged the election and got caught.” Obama broke the silence via a statement, slamming Gabbard’s “baseless” claims as a “distraction.” At the same time, Brennan and Clapper’s NYT op-ed called it “patently false history-rewriting.”

Mass Firings Ignite Fury as Shutdown Hits Day 10

Ex-CIA officer Susan Miller defended the ICA as “ironclad,” denying dossier reliance and accusing Gabbard of “espionage ignorance.” HPSCI’s 2020 report, now public, details Brennan’s push for the false narrative despite analyst dissent. X erupts: “All roads lead to Obama—disband the Dems!” Gabbard vows updates on X (@DNIGabbard).

Comey, Clinton, Schiff, McCabe, Pelosi: Mounting Corruption Probes

Former FBI Director James Comey pleaded not guilty Friday to false statements and obstruction over 2020 testimony denying Clinton probe leaks, with prosecutors tying it to his authorization of McCabe’s WSJ disclosures—despite his 2017 denials. The case, sparked by Trump’s DOJ pressure, hinges on an ambiguous Cruz questioning. However, experts predict “humiliation” for prosecutors due to the contradictions in the IG report.

Hillary Clinton faces renewed scrutiny in the hoax docs, with Trump vowing “lock her up” over the $12M Steele funding.

DNI Gabbard Drops Decade-Hidden Docs: Obama Ordered Fake Intel to Overthrow 2016 Election

Adam Schiff’s mortgage fraud probe intensifies: DOJ’s Maryland grand jury eyes falsified primary residence claims on his Maryland home (2009-2019) for lower rates, while claiming California exemptions—alleged wire/mail/bank fraud netting favorable terms. FHFA referral accuses Schiff of having a “sustained pattern” post-impeachment lead. Andrew McCabe’s leaks resurface in Comey’s trial. At the same time, Nancy Pelosi dodges fresh probes but faces “Russiagate ringleader” barbs from Trump allies. Gabbard’s files implicate all in the “conspiracy to overthrow 2016.”

West Coast Woes: Newsom’s $9.1M Mansion Sparks Fraud Fury, Harris’ Book Tour Flops

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s $9.1M Marin County mansion purchase—his second multi-million pad alongside a $3.7M Fair Oaks estate—ignites fraud allegations, with critics questioning his $218,000 annual salary amid a homelessness crisis he vowed to fix.

Gavin Newsom’s Luxury Homes Under Fire: How Does He Afford It on $200 Salary?

Newsom’s $30M net worth traces to pre-gov PlumpJack wine ventures, Airelle Wines stakes (> $1M), and real estate flips (e.g., $2.2M Kentfield home sold for $5.9M), but optics sting: “How does a public servant afford this while Californians sleep on streets?” Wife Jennifer’s $2.3M from The Representation Project, funded by PG&E/AT&T lobbyists, raises conflict flags. No charges yet, but Trump DOJ eyes probes; Snopes debunks viral “Alpine mansion” rumors as unrelated. Newsom retorts: “Entrepreneurship, not corruption.”

Kamala Harris’ 107-Day Book Tour: Americans Label Her ‘Fool’ in Post-Election Flop

Former VP Kamala Harris’ “107 Days” memoir tour—chronicling her abbreviated 2024 run—draws scathing reviews, with Americans viewing her as a “fool” for equivocating on Biden differences and rejecting Buttigieg over identity fears. Stops in NYC, Brooklyn, and Toronto yield “bizarre” backlash from Dems relitigating losses, with WaPo op-eds blasting her “self-awareness vacuum.” Harris dodges 2028 ambitions, insisting “it’s about the people,” but polls show 60% unfavorable views, cementing her as a “defeated relic.”

Epstein Bombshell: Maxwell Offers Testimony on ‘Pedophile List’ as SCOTUS Rejects Appeal

Ghislaine Maxwell, serving 20 years for Epstein trafficking, signaled willingness to testify before Congress on the financier’s elite network, per insiders, amid DOJ’s July pledge to meet her—despite her August claim of “no client list.” Rep. Tim Burchett’s subpoena motion targets withheld files, as Trump faces scrutiny over 1990s Epstein ties (plane flights confirmed). SCOTUS rejected Maxwell’s appeal Monday, upholding her conviction for grooming minors; transcripts reveal her denying Trump misconduct but confirming RFK Jr. dino-hunt with Epstein. “Ghislaine will testify truthfully,” her lawyer vows, potentially exposing “pedophile list” myths.

NY AG James Indicted: Mortgage Fraud Echoes Schiff’s Probe in Trump Retribution Wave

Letitia James Faces Bank Fraud Charges Over Virginia Home Loan Lies

NY AG Letitia James was indicted Thursday on bank fraud and false statements for misrepresenting a Norfolk, VA, home as her secondary residence to snag favorable terms, renting it out instead—a violation prosecutors say netted undue benefits. Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan pushed the case after his “now charge her” demand, with James blasting it as “political retribution” after her $500M Trump fraud win (partly tossed). First court date: October 24; parallels Comey’s probe.

Comey, Clinton, Schiff, McCabe, Pelosi: Mounting Corruption Probes

Schiff’s Maryland investigation probes similar dual-residence fraud (CA exemption + MD primary claims, 2009-2019), with FHFA alleging falsified documents for lower rates. A DOJ grand jury has been seated. Trump: “Shifty Schiff ripped off America!” Both cases spotlight Trump’s DOJ targeting foes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAeWwW7ItCw

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