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GCA Forums News For Saturday March 21 2026
Comprehensive News Report: Saturday, March 21, 2026U.S. Markets Open Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Headwinds
The Wall Street major indexes recorded steep declines across multiple indicators amid instability over the U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran, rising inflation driven by climbing oil prices, and uncertainty about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 45,577.47 (−443.96 or −0.96%)
- S&P 500: 6,506.48 (−100.01 or −1.51%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 21,647.61 (−443.08 or −2.01%)
The increased uncertainty has been shown to affect the VIX (volatility index), which rose to approximately 26.78. There is still weakness, particularly in small- and mid-cap stocks, and this is impacting even the Russell 2000. There has been greater-than-average volume flow as consumers are now reviewing the most recent employment data and gathering information on the Central Banks’ recent announcements.
Precious Metals: Silver and Gold Plunge Sharply; Silver Volatility Intensifies Below $70/Ounce
This week, the sell-off of precious metals has reached one of the most extreme episodes in recent years, and extreme volatility has been most evident in the silver market.
- March 21 marked a week’s low in the silver spot settlement price, which fell to $67.60 (down 7.13% from the previous session and 14% from the previous week), placing it below $70.
- This is a stark difference from the $80 settlement price level at the beginning of March and in extreme contrast to the, now over one and a half months old, maximum settlement price of $121.64 in silver reached in January 2026.
- Gold is similarly trading between $4,490 and $4,505 per ounce (with a recent loss of 3.3% to 3.5% and a weekly loss of nearly 9%).
What Has Caused Silver To Drop Under $70 (and gold along with it)?
Most importantly, the situation with Iran is worsening. The U.S. and Israel hit Iran, and then Iran hits back.
- This has caused oil to stop flowing through the Straits of Hormuz and has driven the price of oil from $100 to $110.
Fear Of Inflation, Rate Hikes, Fed Stopping Rate Cuts
- Inevitably, this has increased the fear of inflation.
- This is causing markets to incorporate more rate hikes into prices and then stop cutting rates.
- This leads to an increase in the ten-year treasuries.
- Additionally, oil inflation leads to a rise in the dollar and exacerbates the situation with the safe-haven buy (the buy that sets the buy to close).
How Deteriorating Economy Affects Silver Price
- When the economy is (potentially) contracting, silver faces further downside pressure due to additional industrial needs (solar, electronics, EVs).
- Historically, there is a tendency for the price of gold to increase in a war.
- But due to an energy crisis and hawkish statements by the BoE and the Fed, the prices of gold and silver decreased.
- With this, silver has decreased over the last three weeks.
- Although there was no single event related to the “Iran war” that caused silver to drop below $70, inflation and oil prices have played the biggest role.
- The volatility is extreme; however, the physical premiums compress. This indicates that bargain-buying is probably about to happen.
Iran War: Continuing Hostilities Place Additional Burden on U.S. Economy and Metals Markets
Retaliation for the U.S.-Israel offensive on Iran that began late February resulted in the disruption of energy infrastructures, strikes on Iran, and reports of the largest oil supply shock in history.
- Crude’s price increase has ignited global inflation and the aforementioned metals prices collapse.
Effect on the U.S. Economy:
- Escalating energy prices negatively impact economic growth, corporate profit margins, and consumer spending.
- This has increased the volatility of capital markets, with yield curves steepening, the dollar appreciating, and anticipation of the Fed slimming inflation-fighting rate hikes.
- The extension of the conflict will elevate recession risks most in the industrial metals and silver (compared to gold).
Indictment Against Jerome Powell Dismissed; Fed Chair Powell Comments On Weak Private-Sector Job Growth
On March 13, 2026, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg dismissed subpoenas from the Justice Department, effectively ending the criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The investigation, which concerns alleged cost overruns on the Fed’s headquarters renovation, has Boasberg stating there is “no evidence whatsoever” that Powell committed a crime, only that he “displeased the President.” Boasberg characterized the investigation as an improper campaign to pressure Powell to lower interest rates or resign.
The DOJ Intends To Appeal.
Aligning with the employment data, Powell notes the absence of private-sector job growth and job losses across multiple industries.
LIVE Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates, And Housing Updates
The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged is due to inflation caused by the war. Currently, the market anticipates a rate increase in 2026.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.22% as provided by Freddie Mac for the week of March 19.
- Daily average rates range from 6.36% to 6.53%, which is a slight increase but remains lower than the peaks of 2025.
Industry Outlook Housing and Mortgage 2026
- Fannie Mae and MBA – [$2.2-2.4 trillion in originations (up ~8%) ]. Moderately optimistic but not a boom
- Home prices to stall – 0% or modest increase 1-2.2%;
- Home sales 1.7 – 14%
with improving inventory - Improving average wages outpacing prices & rates ease to ~6.3%.
- Affordability might improve for first-time buyers
- 30% refinance increase. Mortgage Industry Contraction NMLS data explicitly confirms – Industry Contraction
- 24,600 loan originators left (from active MLOs ~224,900 closers in 2025 to ~200,300 entering 2026).
- Renewals 2026 (~158,260),
- First increase to be seen post 2022, but thousands upon thousands, brokers, lenders & MLOs post-2022. consolidation is seen still continues. stability and modest volume Growth
LIVE Economic Numbers and National News Unemployment
- it 4.4% in Feb (was 4.3%) Private sector jobs hit contract
Inflation:
- CPI 0.3% 0.3% month over month, – 2.4% year over year (Feb).
- Core measures are finishing out weak, but oil stresses war – are pos. upside risk.
Job Growth
- In the wider economy, job growth slows.
- The war measures stress fraud in Minnesota.
- Other states continue through various welfare fraud & other financial schemes.
- There is still little scamming the entire country.
- But it seems there is little a single scandal dominating the week.
Budget Deficits, Corporate Exodus, and Tax Pressures in Blue States
The relocation of businesses and wealthy individuals is driven by tax advantages and positive business environments in red states, such as Florida, Tennessee, and Texas.
- Blue states, including New York, Illinois, California, and Washington, have been experiencing multi-billion-dollar budget deficits, with no solution other than raising taxes on the wealthy and businesses in the future.
- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, during his campaign to advance progressive spending priorities, brought attention to a $12 billion two-year budget deficit.
- His term has only recently begun, and the deficit estimate has already been revised to $7 billion.
- Budget deficits can be fixed, and other states have balanced budgets through spending and borrowing. He has suggested introducing a wealth tax to shift the tax burden onto lower-income individuals instead.
New York Governor Calling On Wealthy Individuals
NY Governor Kathy Hochul called on wealthy individuals to return to the state, as the state needs their tax contributions. Governor J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson in Illinois face the same issues, but to a greater extent, and in California, they face a chaotic, high-spending sanctuary city.
As State Deficits Continue to Increase, State Sanctuary City Blue Politicians Begin to Create New Wealth Taxes.
March 21, 2026, bottom line: Market volatility driven by geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict overrules conventional safe-haven flows and is weighing on rates, metals, and equities. Resilience is evident in the domestic economy, but there is a clear strain in employment and housing affordability. Midwest Blue-state financial issues coincide with the ongoing state-to-state migration. Geopolitical volatility with Iran and Fed comments will continue next week. Live market monitoring remains available.
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1 Reply
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What is going on with mortgage rates? Mortgage rates have been inching up for the past four weeks. The rising mortgage rates are slowing home sales. The housing market is already depressed with many in the housing and mortgage industry hurting big time and many are leaving the industry altogether.
Mortgage rates have indeed been **rising** over the past four weeks (roughly mid-March through early April 2026), reversing some of the gains seen earlier in the year when the 30-year fixed briefly dipped below 6%. Here’s a clear breakdown of what’s happening right now, why it’s occurring, and the broader impact on the housing market and industry.
Current Mortgage Rates (as of early April 2026)
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: National averages sit in the **6.25%–6.45%** range, depending on the source and day.
Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey (week ending March 26, 2026) showed 6.38%, up sharply from 6.22% the prior week — marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase.
Daily averages from sources like Zillow, NerdWallet, and Bankrate hover around 6.25%–6.46% as of April 1, with slight daily fluctuations (some easing in the very short term due to bond market movements).
15-year fixed: Typically 5.7%–5.8%.
Rates remain lower than a year ago (when the 30-year averaged closer to 6.65%), but the recent uptick has erased much of the early-2026 improvement.
This four-week climb has pushed rates to levels not seen since late 2025 in some weekly measures, creating noticeable sticker shock for buyers and refinancers.
Why Mortgage Rates Are Inching Up
Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, investor sentiment, and inflation expectations — not directly by the Federal Reserve’s short-term federal funds rate.
The main drivers behind the recent rise include:
Geopolitical tensions and the conflict involving Iran: This has driven oil prices significantly higher (from lows around $56/barrel to near $90 in some reports). Higher energy costs feed into broader inflation fears, pushing bond yields up as investors demand higher returns to offset risk.
Sticky inflation concerns: Even as inflation has cooled from peak levels, recent data and global pressures have made the Fed cautious. Traders now see very low odds of a Fed rate cut at the April 2026 meeting (around 97% expect no change). This reduces downward pressure on long-term rates.
Rising Treasury yields: As uncertainty grows, investors shift behavior, leading to higher yields on U.S. Treasuries, which lenders then price into mortgages.
Economic uncertainty: Mixed signals on growth, employment, and global events have added volatility.
The result? A reversal from the optimistic start to 2026, when rates had fallen toward or below 6% in February thanks to prior Fed easing signals.
Impact on the Housing Market
You’re correct that rising rates are slowing home sales and adding pressure to an already challenged market:
Higher borrowing costs reduce affordability, keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines or forcing them to look at smaller homes, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), or wait for better conditions.
Existing home sales have been depressed for years (hovering at levels not seen since the mid-1990s in some periods), with inventory improving modestly but still tight in many areas. Recent data showed some month-to-month gains in sales, but the spring buying season — traditionally the busiest — is being dampened by the rate spike.
Home prices remain relatively flat or only slightly up nationally (0–3% expected growth in 2026 forecasts), as higher rates offset some demand.
Refinance activity has taken a hit, with applications dropping notably in recent weeks as rates climbed.
Overall, the market shows gradual year-over-year improvements in some metrics (like purchase applications earlier in the year), but the recent rate volatility is creating headwinds and prolonging the “higher for longer” environment.
Effects on the Housing and Mortgage Industry
The prolonged affordability crunch has been tough on professionals:
Many loan officers, real estate agents, and support staff have faced reduced transaction volume, leading to layoffs, commission struggles, and people exiting the industry.
Mortgage originations (both purchase and refinance) remain below pre-pandemic peaks, squeezing lender margins and forcing cost-cutting.
Builders and sellers are adapting with incentives like rate buydowns, but the overall pipeline feels constrained.
Positive notes: Some forecasts still project modest sales growth later in 2026 if rates stabilize or ease slightly, with experts like the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, and NAR generally expecting 30-year rates to average in the low-to-mid 6% range for the year (potentially 6.0%–6.3%).
No one expects a quick return to 3–4% rates. Most 2026 outlooks point to stability around current levels or modest declines if inflation cools further and the Fed resumes easing later.
What This Means for Homeowners and Buyers
Refinancing: Still possible if you have equity and can benefit from even small drops, especially with programs that allow flexibility (e.g., government-backed loans). Cash-out refinances or debt consolidation can sometimes help manage other high-interest obligations.
Purchasing: Shop multiple lenders aggressively — rates and fees vary. Consider rate buydowns, seller concessions, or adjustable-rate options if you don’t plan to stay long-term.
Waiting game: Volatility means opportunities can appear quickly. Locking in when rates dip (even temporarily) can make sense.
If you’re dealing with a specific situation — such as refinancing with a judgment, credit challenges, or needing options in a higher-rate environment — feel free to share more details. At Gustan Cho Associates, we specialize in navigating these exact conditions with no lender overlays on FHA, VA, USDA, and Conventional programs.
Rates can shift daily, so the best move is often a quick pre-approval or consultation to see real personalized options based on your credit, equity, and goals. The market remains resilient, but patience and the right lender make a big difference right now.
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